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Is This the Second Wave?

The number of new COVID-19 cases is rising quickly. So is the positive test rate. But to understand whether or not there's a second wave, you have to keep your eye on deaths.
June 25, 2020
Featured Image
Handout photo from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows a microscopic view of the Coronavirus at the CDC in Atlanta, Georgia. According to the CDC the virus that causes Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) might be a "previously unrecognized virus from the Coronavirus family." (Photo by CDC/Getty Images)

The number of new cases doesn’t look good. Here’s the data as of Thursday morning. Let’s look at the curve on the rolling 7-day average:

Not great, Bob.

On the other hand, the number of tests performed daily has increased dramatically—which is very good. Have a look at the daily test numbers:

Yay testing!

This is why some people who hold high office are saying that the only reason we have more cases is because we’re doing more testing.

That is one possible explanation.

Another possible explanation is that there are more infections out in the wild than there were three weeks ago.

If that were the case, then you would expect to see the percentage of positive tests going up and ruh-roh: