Later today, when Donald Trump lands here in my home state, he’ll find a whole lot of bad news. But also a narrow path to claw his way back into contention in a state that he pretty much has to win.
First the bad news.
Two new polls show him trailing badly here. The Marquette University Law poll (considered the state’s most reliable poll) has him down by 8 points to Joe Biden. The NYT/ Siena poll has him trailing by 11 points. (The poll also shows Trump trailing in other key battleground states.)
Marquette’s poll is filled with ominous numbers for Trump:
- 30 percent approve of his handling of the protests over the police murder of George Floyd, 58 percent disapprove.
- 44 percent give him high marks for his handling of the coronavirus (which has been relatively contained here), 52 percent disapprove.
- Just 39 percent of Wisconsin voters think that Trump cares about people like them.
But here are the really scary numbers for the president: he’s slipping among Republicans and getting hammered among independents.
In May, Trump led Biden among Republicans 93 percent to 1 percent. In June, his lead over Biden was 83 percent to 8 percent among Republicans.
Independents had preferred Trump over Biden in May by 34 percent to 27 percent. That preference reversed in June, with Biden supported by 38 percent to Trump’s 30 percent.
Similar shifts, since May, Trump’s job approval… slipped among Republicans and reversed among independents. In May, 50 percent of independents said that they approved of Trump’s job performance and 36 percent disapproved. In June, that shifted to 36 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval.
There are also warning signs from the suburbs, including the crucial WOW counties that have been the engine for the state’s GOP resurgence. Not surprisingly, Biden has a big lead in heavily Democratic Milwaukee. But in the rest of the Milwaukee area Trump leads by just 7 points.
As Dave Weigel notes, that’s a problem:
Now the glimmer of hope for Trump.