Welcome to the Daily Countdown. We have 66 days to go until the election; and then 78 days after that until Inauguration Day
We’re not really all in this together, are we?
Usually, national emergencies bring us together, at least for a moment, because we feel a common challenge and purpose. We tell ourselves that tragedies bring out the best in us. In the face of adversity, Americans stand united because that’s who we are.
But this time it’s not true, is it?
Yesterday, more than a thousand Americans died from the coronavirus and we are headed toward 300,000 deaths by December. In nearly any other context that many lives lost would shock the conscience of the nation. But, like so many other things, how you think about those deaths depends on your tribal, rather than national identity.
For one America, the pandemic is an on-going tragedy; millions of people have missed weddings, funerals, and graduations. They’ve lost loved ones; they’ve lost homes; they’ve lost jobs. The other America has events like the one we saw last night.
But this is what really hit me yesterday. Asked about the upsurge in urban violence around the country, Kellyanne Conway said: “These are Democratically-led cities and most with Democratic governors. . . . It’s not Donald Trump’s watch.”
On one level, this feels simply like more Trumpian rhetoric, like we heard last night from the Man Himself. But stop for a minute.
Ronald Brownstein noted the deeper reveal. Her comments, he wrote, were a “incredibly explicit acknowledgement that Trump views himself as the president of red America, w/blue America more like a foreign adversary to be contained and defeated than as residents of the same country.”
I’d rather not get drawn into a debate over the Electoral College here, but this division of the country into Red and Blue states shapes Trump’s attitude toward millions of Americans. In his eyes, Americans are not equal citizens; they are pawns who can be sacrificed, ignored, or ridiculed on the basis of their political usefulness or irrelevancy.
So he can attack a major American city like Baltimore as a “disgusting, rat and rodent infested mess” where “no human being would want to live,” because it’s not in a state that counts. He doesn’t need it. They are not his people.
“On a phone call with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, he told FEMA to cut off the money and to no longer give individual assistance to California.
“He told us to stop giving money to people whose houses had burned down from a wildfire, because he was so rageful that people in the state of California … didn’t support him and that, politically, it wasn’t a base for him.”
He has repeatedly and publicly threatened California’s federal aid — including on wildfires, the topic of Taylor’s allegation. Trump has issued this threat by citing certain cities providing sanctuary to undocumented immigrants and California’s failure to meet his expectations at its border with Mexico. He at one point threatened to defund the state entirely.
And he can let politically useless Americans die. Just last month, Vanity Fair reported on Jared Kushner’s failure to come up with a plan for national coronavirus testing.
Most troubling of all, perhaps, was a sentiment the expert said a member of Kushner’s team expressed: that because the virus had hit blue states hardest, a national plan was unnecessary and would not make sense politically. “The political folks believed that because it was going to be relegated to Democratic states, that they could blame those governors, and that would be an effective political strategy,” said the expert.
This is the context of our current moment. We are not in this together, because in the eyes of this president more than half the country is either invisible or disposable.
In the mail:
Some of my favorite bits: “What this country needs is fewer people who know what this country needs. We’d be better off, in my opinion, without so many opinions. Especially so many political opinions, including my own.”
“Social media polarizes our politics by allowing us all — no matter how wrong we are about a political issue — to find a large, enthusiastic group of people who are even wronger.”
So how are you feeling about things today? I ask because I sense a massive freak out.
We have to wait a few days to see whether the conventions have fundamentally altered the trajectory of this race, but it seems clear than the bed wetting has commenced in earnest. Part of this is substantive. The polls have shown some tightening, especially in swing states. (And Democrats are reading articles like this one. And this one.)
But part of it is psychological.
Until this week, a lot of folks thought that because a Trump victory was unthinkable, it was therefore impossible. They thought the same thing back in 2016,. We remember how that turned out, which explains the PTSD flashbacks I’m seeing all around social media.
There’s another possibility as well. Many on the left have spent the last four years more or less constantly in an anti-Trump media bubble, listening to daily accounts of outrage and shattered norms from folks on CNN and MSNBC (like me). But — bear with me here — marinating in Rachel Maddow or Steve Schmidt’s serial word-salads, might have created a somewhat distorted view of the political landscape.
This week’s RNC convention was a shit show, but for a lot of Democrats, it may have been the first time they realized that Trumpism is not only out there, it is alive.
But, deep breath.
This thread by the Cook Report’s Dave Wasserman is worth your time.
He notes the tightening polls, acknowledges the possibility that Biden could win the popular vote by 5 points (!) and still lose the Electoral College, and the challenges that mail-in voting poses for Democrats. But, that said, “Biden’s lead to date is clearly more *stable* than Clinton’s was throughout ’16, with fewer undecided/third party voters. I still view him as the favorite.”
“FWIW,” says Wasserman, “despite what the state polling averages say, I still view Biden’s path of least resistance to 270 Electoral Votes as MI, #NE02, PA and *AZ,* rather than FL or WI – based on demographic patterns and what we saw from hard votes in ’18. Admittedly, it’s a really close call.”