270 to Doomsday
Thinking through (one of) our nightmare scenario(s).
1. Midnights
What happens if Kamala Harris hits exactly 270 electoral votes?
The outcome distribution for this election is Harris winning roughly 50 percent of the time. Within that universe, Harris getting 270 electoral votes is probably the median-variant. This is the scenario where she wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. (While losing Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia.)
On the one hand: If a genie appeared this afternoon and offered me this outcome, I would take it. You probably would, too.
On the other hand: Harris winning with exactly 270 electoral votes is the scenario that creates the largest potential for chaos and crisis. It would invite another coup attempt. And this time, the coup might be quasi-legal.
I want to walk through this scenario not to scare you, but because forewarned is forearmed.
Let’s start with some baseline assumptions.
Harris is likely to win the popular vote. This fact will not impact the Electoral College, but we’re moving into a world where abstract feelings about legitimacy matter a great deal. The moves and counter-moves following Election Day will be based as much on perceived legitimacy as counted votes.
Donald Trump will claim victory. It’s possible that Trump will surprise us by being cautious and wise on election night. Maybe he’ll thank his supporters and ask them to remain calm while the vote counting process plays out.
It’s more likely that on the night of November 5, Trump will declare victory, whatever the vote count says. Then, as an aside, he will accuse Harris and Democrats of rigging, or stealing, votes. These statements will set off a crisis and launch the next phase of his attempt to take power.
The legal fights will merely be prelude. As the vote count in ongoing, Trump and Republicans will file a number of lawsuits. These actions will be, superficially, within the purview of the law. But they will only be delaying tactics, designed not to produce victory but to create pretext for the party to move on to extra-legal remedies.
And that’s when things get dark.