Tim, thanks for putting together a coherent and persuasive script of many of the jumbled thoughts that have circulating in my brain for the last two weeks. I hope this works.
Go out a year to 2026 and look back. If Trump wins or loses we’re going to see the real Trump in spades… and with either scenario, it is going to be uggggly.
I appreciate this article but I’m pretty sure it doesn’t matter. People have memory holed the last 18 months of Trump’s first term. They want things to go back to how they were back then.
It doesn’t matter that going back to Trump of 2018 won’t happen for any number of reasons, but close to an outright majority of Americans believe that Kamala Harris and Joe Biden are to blame for their perceived ills. And it doesn’t matter what the objective reality is anymore, because perception is reality.
We have normalized hysterical political rhetoric to the point that none of it matters, and terms like “fascism” or “dictatorship” are just typical pejoratives in a campaign now. Nobody believes the media so a well sourced piece about how a political candidate for president has a desire for “German generals” is not a campaign altering bombshell but just more white noise.
My point is this - people have made up their minds, not just about this election, but about this country. And JVL was right. Americans want this.
Tim, great piece, but you glossed over, if you ever really even touched on, the fear that many people have that the Orange Stain will not survive until 2028, mentally or physically or both. Or, think about this: The Cabinet (vetted by Policy 2025) and the VP (chomping at the bit Jettison Donny Vain) will impliment Article 25 against "poor President Trump, who gave his all for the country but just does not have it any more" and deliver the reins to JDV within a year. Or are you worried that the Haley voters really want that dude rather than a Haley/Youngkin ticket in 2028?
I posited that thought a few days ago. The great heft of the Republican party is only getting behind TFG so they can install Vance, who they see as more telegenic and articulate (!) than Trump. Much has been made of the idea that Trump has taken over the Republican party, but I think as soon as Trump poses a threat to corporate profits and the expansion of very profitable globalization (the tariff thing), the sheer inertia of all that Republican money and influence will turn against him.
Who was it that said "the banks run DC" ? A re-elected Trump will prove so unpopular and so injurious to corporate profitability that the party will need to jettison him, sooner rather than later. Since he changes his stripes so easily and casually, Vance is an unknown quantity, assuming you can discount his team-player acquiescence to Trump's garbled mania. There's great peril in not knowing who the guy really is, but I suspect that the Big Money will be more than ready to roll the dice on him. The only question is how far Trump drives the party into the ditch that Vance's association with him proves a terminal liability.
And keep in mind, Trump's almost certain toxic unpopularity in a second term will result in massive 2026 Congressional losses. I have to wonder if the Republican poobahs are really thinking about that.
As far as Tim (great, insightful piece here) preaching to Haley voters, a cry in the wilderness. If they ever see this piece on the Bulwark, they're already on the bus. I think most readers here know that. But a great piece, anyway.
I have no faith that lifelong republicans won’t vote for the bad orange man. There seems to be nothing he can say that bothers them enough not to vote for him. So, instead, I voted on the first day of early voting and picked Democrats all the way down (except for one Republican judge whom I know personally). I’m nagging my caucus (my family) to get down to the library and vote early so that maybe, maybe Collin Allred can beat Ted Cruz. And then I pray.
Mind you, I'm voting for Harris anyways because Trump is too great a threat, but I think the "Don't worry, there will be a 6-3 SCOTUS against her, etc" parts of this argument rings pretty hollow.
If the Dems get the trifecta (perhaps not likely but still has a decent chance of happening either now or in 2026) they are going to pack SCOTUS to get a 7-6 majority in their favor and at a minimum will admit DC as a state and pick up 2 pretty left Dem senators, all of which totally blows up the "don't worry, SCOTUS/etc. will stop her if she goes crazy progressive" argument.
That outcome is highly unlikely, even if the Dems do miraculously hang onto the Senate. The irony of the current Democratic party is that it has proven to be quite small-C conservative. The idea that the party could actually get every one of its senators to agree to a scheme to pack the Supreme Court is laughable.
I'm a Democrat (but one very willing to criticize my party), and I do not believe that will happen. Biden was against court packing, only the far left of the party promotes the idea. They are a belligerent and highly impractical bunch, the self-important, self-righteous, scolding wing of the Democratic Party.
Harris has said she wants to be a president for all, plus as Tim correctly noted, if elected, she will owe her victory in part to significant support from centrist and sane Republicans. A reality she would be foolish to ignore.The bipartisan policy task force she promises to create will never recommend such a solution. Too divisive and not a sustainable approach. How large do we let the court become, as each change in administration seeks to shift the majority back to its own party by adding more members. Her task force should continue with the process Biden started of staying and proposing reforms to the court. I personally like the ideas of a strong code of ethics and of terms limited to 18 years, but have not spent a lot of time on the pros and cons of the latter, so willing to be educated on effective judicial reforms.
I would also add that current oil and gas production is setting records. We produced more in 2023 than in any year under Trump and are currently producing more than any country ever has.
When Trump says Kamala (Biden) cut energy production, it is a complete lie.
Vote Harris, because Trump back on the world stage will validate their fears that we really have become an unserious nation that cannot be trusted. Let’s see what that leads to.
Not fantasizing or voting for a Haley/Youngkin ticket. Both of them are spineless worms who will take away rights - especially women’s rights. Youngkin tried it here in Virginia but was stymied by the state senate, thankfully. He was elected on some ridiculous platform of parent rights to sway legitimate educational curricula.
Then there’s Haley. Her opinion about Trump changes as often as she changes her underwear.
One thing they both want to do is ban abortion so if that doesn’t get solved during a Harris presidency, it’s still up for grabs and that is disheartening.
I am an independent. I fantasize about a time when our rights were secure and with that okay, taxes were just something we could disagree about or maybe change our minds about without worrying about our democratic system ending.
Great piece Tim. The choice is clear. If the American people chose Trump, they have only themselves to blame for self destructing.
Tim, thanks for putting together a coherent and persuasive script of many of the jumbled thoughts that have circulating in my brain for the last two weeks. I hope this works.
Go out a year to 2026 and look back. If Trump wins or loses we’re going to see the real Trump in spades… and with either scenario, it is going to be uggggly.
Excellent piece, Tim! Thank you.
Tim, great point about the probable numbers in Congress. Practical and aligned with a traditional American voter viewpoint.
I appreciate this article but I’m pretty sure it doesn’t matter. People have memory holed the last 18 months of Trump’s first term. They want things to go back to how they were back then.
It doesn’t matter that going back to Trump of 2018 won’t happen for any number of reasons, but close to an outright majority of Americans believe that Kamala Harris and Joe Biden are to blame for their perceived ills. And it doesn’t matter what the objective reality is anymore, because perception is reality.
We have normalized hysterical political rhetoric to the point that none of it matters, and terms like “fascism” or “dictatorship” are just typical pejoratives in a campaign now. Nobody believes the media so a well sourced piece about how a political candidate for president has a desire for “German generals” is not a campaign altering bombshell but just more white noise.
My point is this - people have made up their minds, not just about this election, but about this country. And JVL was right. Americans want this.
So let us have it.
Tim, great piece, but you glossed over, if you ever really even touched on, the fear that many people have that the Orange Stain will not survive until 2028, mentally or physically or both. Or, think about this: The Cabinet (vetted by Policy 2025) and the VP (chomping at the bit Jettison Donny Vain) will impliment Article 25 against "poor President Trump, who gave his all for the country but just does not have it any more" and deliver the reins to JDV within a year. Or are you worried that the Haley voters really want that dude rather than a Haley/Youngkin ticket in 2028?
I posited that thought a few days ago. The great heft of the Republican party is only getting behind TFG so they can install Vance, who they see as more telegenic and articulate (!) than Trump. Much has been made of the idea that Trump has taken over the Republican party, but I think as soon as Trump poses a threat to corporate profits and the expansion of very profitable globalization (the tariff thing), the sheer inertia of all that Republican money and influence will turn against him.
Who was it that said "the banks run DC" ? A re-elected Trump will prove so unpopular and so injurious to corporate profitability that the party will need to jettison him, sooner rather than later. Since he changes his stripes so easily and casually, Vance is an unknown quantity, assuming you can discount his team-player acquiescence to Trump's garbled mania. There's great peril in not knowing who the guy really is, but I suspect that the Big Money will be more than ready to roll the dice on him. The only question is how far Trump drives the party into the ditch that Vance's association with him proves a terminal liability.
And keep in mind, Trump's almost certain toxic unpopularity in a second term will result in massive 2026 Congressional losses. I have to wonder if the Republican poobahs are really thinking about that.
As far as Tim (great, insightful piece here) preaching to Haley voters, a cry in the wilderness. If they ever see this piece on the Bulwark, they're already on the bus. I think most readers here know that. But a great piece, anyway.
If you can write this, this died-in-the-wool leftie can keep on plowing through phone calls for Harris in PA. We all try.
Thank you, Tim, for preaching to the congregation rather than to the choir.
Thank you Tim. As usual, you nailed it. I shared this with a loved one who is still on the fence in the hopes that it will convince him.
I have no faith that lifelong republicans won’t vote for the bad orange man. There seems to be nothing he can say that bothers them enough not to vote for him. So, instead, I voted on the first day of early voting and picked Democrats all the way down (except for one Republican judge whom I know personally). I’m nagging my caucus (my family) to get down to the library and vote early so that maybe, maybe Collin Allred can beat Ted Cruz. And then I pray.
Mind you, I'm voting for Harris anyways because Trump is too great a threat, but I think the "Don't worry, there will be a 6-3 SCOTUS against her, etc" parts of this argument rings pretty hollow.
If the Dems get the trifecta (perhaps not likely but still has a decent chance of happening either now or in 2026) they are going to pack SCOTUS to get a 7-6 majority in their favor and at a minimum will admit DC as a state and pick up 2 pretty left Dem senators, all of which totally blows up the "don't worry, SCOTUS/etc. will stop her if she goes crazy progressive" argument.
That outcome is highly unlikely, even if the Dems do miraculously hang onto the Senate. The irony of the current Democratic party is that it has proven to be quite small-C conservative. The idea that the party could actually get every one of its senators to agree to a scheme to pack the Supreme Court is laughable.
I'm a Democrat (but one very willing to criticize my party), and I do not believe that will happen. Biden was against court packing, only the far left of the party promotes the idea. They are a belligerent and highly impractical bunch, the self-important, self-righteous, scolding wing of the Democratic Party.
Harris has said she wants to be a president for all, plus as Tim correctly noted, if elected, she will owe her victory in part to significant support from centrist and sane Republicans. A reality she would be foolish to ignore.The bipartisan policy task force she promises to create will never recommend such a solution. Too divisive and not a sustainable approach. How large do we let the court become, as each change in administration seeks to shift the majority back to its own party by adding more members. Her task force should continue with the process Biden started of staying and proposing reforms to the court. I personally like the ideas of a strong code of ethics and of terms limited to 18 years, but have not spent a lot of time on the pros and cons of the latter, so willing to be educated on effective judicial reforms.
So will you be writing to Chris Sunnu?
I would also add that current oil and gas production is setting records. We produced more in 2023 than in any year under Trump and are currently producing more than any country ever has.
When Trump says Kamala (Biden) cut energy production, it is a complete lie.
Vote Harris, because Trump back on the world stage will validate their fears that we really have become an unserious nation that cannot be trusted. Let’s see what that leads to.
Not fantasizing or voting for a Haley/Youngkin ticket. Both of them are spineless worms who will take away rights - especially women’s rights. Youngkin tried it here in Virginia but was stymied by the state senate, thankfully. He was elected on some ridiculous platform of parent rights to sway legitimate educational curricula.
Then there’s Haley. Her opinion about Trump changes as often as she changes her underwear.
One thing they both want to do is ban abortion so if that doesn’t get solved during a Harris presidency, it’s still up for grabs and that is disheartening.
I am an independent. I fantasize about a time when our rights were secure and with that okay, taxes were just something we could disagree about or maybe change our minds about without worrying about our democratic system ending.