The thought that "IDF would eventually crush Hamas, though it would likely take years to grind them down" -- especially if this is considered some form of optimism -- fills me with despair. Every **day** this war continues is an eternity to suffering children and families. Even if Israel can survive and win{*} this protracted nightmare, …
The thought that "IDF would eventually crush Hamas, though it would likely take years to grind them down" -- especially if this is considered some form of optimism -- fills me with despair. Every **day** this war continues is an eternity to suffering children and families. Even if Israel can survive and win{*} this protracted nightmare, neither they nor we nor our world will be recognizable at the end of it.
We will be judged and defined by what we choose to call inevitable.
That's the IDF running numbers against Hamas' *current* manpower numbers. It is not thinking about how many recruits will be going into Hamas and PIJ over the next 10 years. Same mistakes we made in Iraq/Afghanistan by focusing on the kill ratio without thinking about the recruiting ratio. If for every Hamas fighter killed 2-3 new members join because of revenge motives of what happened to their neighborhoods/families during IDF bombardment campaigns then the IDF goes net-negative on their kill ratio over time. They're being absolutely delusional in their short-sightedness in thinking that Hamas goes away on their current projected timeline based off of a formula that counts attrition-over-time while discounting addition-over-time.
I am wondering if IDF takes the ceasefire in Gaza (basically suing for peace) now to put their full effort into Hezbollah and other Iran proxies in the north.
OR they could be suing for peace specifically *because* they understand that the N/S threats of LH/Houthi missile barrages can really fuck them up in the short term and cause political headaches for Netanyahu should those elements of the regional conflict really heat up and bring the Israeli body count back up to larger numbers. They may be moving to peace as a way of trying to prevent those Israeli casualties from occurring in the first place. Put out the embers before they start fires. Especially if they suspect that the coalition naval defense of the Red Sea may not be there to help their missile defense indefinitely. IF the Houthis stop striking shipping lanes and start focusing more on launching rockets into Israel then a lot of the international necessity to protect maritime shipping across the Red Sea goes away, and so do those the missile defense systems on those coalition warships when they depart as they're no longer needed to protect maritime shipping traffic.
I would agree except that since 2007 the IDF has entered Gaza for military ends dozens of times, with a half dozen of those rising to the level of being termed a war or Incursion, capital I, and Israel still got October 7. I don't like Bibi, but I've asked myself what I would have done. Is the choice between some more suffering now or decades of suffering going forward? It's not an easy call.
The thought that "IDF would eventually crush Hamas, though it would likely take years to grind them down" -- especially if this is considered some form of optimism -- fills me with despair. Every **day** this war continues is an eternity to suffering children and families. Even if Israel can survive and win{*} this protracted nightmare, neither they nor we nor our world will be recognizable at the end of it.
We will be judged and defined by what we choose to call inevitable.
------------------
{*} whatever that means
That's the IDF running numbers against Hamas' *current* manpower numbers. It is not thinking about how many recruits will be going into Hamas and PIJ over the next 10 years. Same mistakes we made in Iraq/Afghanistan by focusing on the kill ratio without thinking about the recruiting ratio. If for every Hamas fighter killed 2-3 new members join because of revenge motives of what happened to their neighborhoods/families during IDF bombardment campaigns then the IDF goes net-negative on their kill ratio over time. They're being absolutely delusional in their short-sightedness in thinking that Hamas goes away on their current projected timeline based off of a formula that counts attrition-over-time while discounting addition-over-time.
I am wondering if IDF takes the ceasefire in Gaza (basically suing for peace) now to put their full effort into Hezbollah and other Iran proxies in the north.
OR they could be suing for peace specifically *because* they understand that the N/S threats of LH/Houthi missile barrages can really fuck them up in the short term and cause political headaches for Netanyahu should those elements of the regional conflict really heat up and bring the Israeli body count back up to larger numbers. They may be moving to peace as a way of trying to prevent those Israeli casualties from occurring in the first place. Put out the embers before they start fires. Especially if they suspect that the coalition naval defense of the Red Sea may not be there to help their missile defense indefinitely. IF the Houthis stop striking shipping lanes and start focusing more on launching rockets into Israel then a lot of the international necessity to protect maritime shipping across the Red Sea goes away, and so do those the missile defense systems on those coalition warships when they depart as they're no longer needed to protect maritime shipping traffic.
I would agree except that since 2007 the IDF has entered Gaza for military ends dozens of times, with a half dozen of those rising to the level of being termed a war or Incursion, capital I, and Israel still got October 7. I don't like Bibi, but I've asked myself what I would have done. Is the choice between some more suffering now or decades of suffering going forward? It's not an easy call.
Good to see you back, Amanda!