"If a war starts, Hezbollah may use a low-level drone attack rather than the barrage of 1960s-era artillery rockets that Israel is expecting."
It will be a mix. That's a tactic we've seen proliferating out of Ukraine--a mix of projectiles varying by size and speed to throw off AMD systems. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't (the vol…
"If a war starts, Hezbollah may use a low-level drone attack rather than the barrage of 1960s-era artillery rockets that Israel is expecting."
It will be a mix. That's a tactic we've seen proliferating out of Ukraine--a mix of projectiles varying by size and speed to throw off AMD systems. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't (the volley the US/UK/Jordan/Israel shot down heading toward Israel was a mixed volley of drones and varying size/speed rockets for example). That said, the principles of sensor saturation/battery depletion remain the same: if you can fire off more projectiles than the AMD systems can track and/or counter-fire against, then enough projos get through to reek havok on their intended targets. LH/Iran could do swarms of cheaper drones to deplete the counter-battery silos of counter-fire rockets and *then* fire off the Iranian-made rockets after that so that the AMD batteries have nothing left to shoot the 2nd volley of rockets down with. The trick is to ensure that the 2nd volley goes into the air prior to the reload rate on those depleted AMD batteries. LH likely has been probing this factor to estimate the timing of their future mixed rocket/drone volleys in addition to studying the AMD counter-fire envelopes based on altitude and speed of incoming projectile.
It's more like a game of Texas Hold'em where nobody wants to turn the cards over. It's all bluffing and posturing until the cards get turned over and people find out who was bluffing and who wasn't, but by then it's too late and the metaphorical "pot"--the collective body count--is getting divided up and paid for amongst the players.
Hmmm. I think most Arab players in this war, or its expansion (Sunni or Shia), would prefer the chess analogy to any suggestion they resembled "Texas" gamesmanship.
I'm talking about Israel vs Hamas/Houthis/LH/Iran here, not the Arab regional players. The dirty little secret of the Near East is that most of the Arab states don't give a shit about what happens to the Palestinians apart from Jordan and to a certain extent Egypt because they both have to deal with the border issue and Palestinian refugees. Iran hates Israel, Jordan is sympathetic to the Palestinians, Egypt doesn't want border issues, everyone else mostly doesn't give a shit and doesn't want to touch that area with a 10ft pole.
"If a war starts, Hezbollah may use a low-level drone attack rather than the barrage of 1960s-era artillery rockets that Israel is expecting."
It will be a mix. That's a tactic we've seen proliferating out of Ukraine--a mix of projectiles varying by size and speed to throw off AMD systems. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't (the volley the US/UK/Jordan/Israel shot down heading toward Israel was a mixed volley of drones and varying size/speed rockets for example). That said, the principles of sensor saturation/battery depletion remain the same: if you can fire off more projectiles than the AMD systems can track and/or counter-fire against, then enough projos get through to reek havok on their intended targets. LH/Iran could do swarms of cheaper drones to deplete the counter-battery silos of counter-fire rockets and *then* fire off the Iranian-made rockets after that so that the AMD batteries have nothing left to shoot the 2nd volley of rockets down with. The trick is to ensure that the 2nd volley goes into the air prior to the reload rate on those depleted AMD batteries. LH likely has been probing this factor to estimate the timing of their future mixed rocket/drone volleys in addition to studying the AMD counter-fire envelopes based on altitude and speed of incoming projectile.
Three-dimensional chess with exploding pieces.
It's more like a game of Texas Hold'em where nobody wants to turn the cards over. It's all bluffing and posturing until the cards get turned over and people find out who was bluffing and who wasn't, but by then it's too late and the metaphorical "pot"--the collective body count--is getting divided up and paid for amongst the players.
Hmmm. I think most Arab players in this war, or its expansion (Sunni or Shia), would prefer the chess analogy to any suggestion they resembled "Texas" gamesmanship.
The diplomacy is in the implications.
I'm talking about Israel vs Hamas/Houthis/LH/Iran here, not the Arab regional players. The dirty little secret of the Near East is that most of the Arab states don't give a shit about what happens to the Palestinians apart from Jordan and to a certain extent Egypt because they both have to deal with the border issue and Palestinian refugees. Iran hates Israel, Jordan is sympathetic to the Palestinians, Egypt doesn't want border issues, everyone else mostly doesn't give a shit and doesn't want to touch that area with a 10ft pole.