And if he dumps JD, the ads are going to be going out like a tidal wave.
(points below are made up and aren't percentage points, just scoring points)
He's mostly screwed with JD right now. Stick with him, -10 points. Replace him and 30% chance of +5 points and 70% chance of -20 points.
The only way that works for him is if -10 points is enough to cost him the election. In that case, any chance of a positive movement is worth taking. Of course what it says about a leader that puts himself in such a position in the first place....
And if he dumps JD, the ads are going to be going out like a tidal wave.
(points below are made up and aren't percentage points, just scoring points)
He's mostly screwed with JD right now. Stick with him, -10 points. Replace him and 30% chance of +5 points and 70% chance of -20 points.
The only way that works for him is if -10 points is enough to cost him the election. In that case, any chance of a positive movement is worth taking. Of course what it says about a leader that puts himself in such a position in the first place....
Oh, sorry, knowltok. I lost the thread when you brought in the math.
Chevy Chase has entered the chat!