If you get scam texts, mark them as SPAM on your iPhone if you have one. I’ve used only ActBlue for years. Every person running I’ve been interested supporting has been connected.
I'm not competent enough to get texts. Email is as far in life as I hope to be a master. I have the phone and we each eye the other with a good deal of hostility as we circle in the ring.
I've gotten a bunch of these spam texts but I ignore them. Now I'm marking them as spam and trying to unsubscribe (which, so far, has been unsuccesful)
I recall several comedians used the "telephone bit" on Carson. Personally, I tired of them pretty quickly. But it was also a time of the Great Change in stand-up comedy, when it started transitioning from telling jokes with punchlines to observational monologues. Carson brought so many new comics on (David Brenner, Woody Allen, Carlin, others whom I forget) that I think he personally changed the art form. And I agree, Newhart pretty much owned the telephone bits, the others were just imitators.
Carson was great in finding talent! I'll add a some more Robert Klein,David Steinberg and David Letterman. I'll add Jonathan Winters, but he was established.
You are right about Steve Martin. I don't remember Williams being on Carson.I could be wrong there. I think Robin made it big with Mork and Mindy. Ii never watched that though I heard about Williams and his fantastic ability to do comedy off the cuff)
Carson was beloved by the just starting out comedians for all the help he gave them. "Here's your break, kid. Show 'em what you got." I always respected him for that. Winters was a genius, can't believe I overlooked him in my examples.
I remember listening to Winters comedy album as a kid.Just amazing. And Williams owes it all to Winters. What can one say except those two were brilliant geniuses at the craft of ad living!
You do know when you send something to ActBlue, you'll get solicitations from every Democratic candidate in the country. I'm sure they take off a nice handling fee as well.
Huh. Trump reassures an evangelical audience that they only have to vote once more, and after that everything will be fixed, and they won’t have to vote anymore…
I’ve been wondering if that would be The Gaffe that finally stuck to him, but I guess not?
I have been waiting for that gaffe for nine years. He had committed what for anyone else would be “The Gaffe” hundreds if not thousands of times since 2015. I have been waiting for his implosion every day. The political rules we have always lived by in my 71 years no longer apply. That his behavior has no effect at all has just about driven me insane. We are morally, spiritually and politically bankrupt as a country, and I fear we are all about to see the decline and fall of the American empire as a result of our degeneracy.
"We are morally, spiritually and politically bankrupt as a country, and I fear we are all about to see the decline and fall of the American empire as a result of our degeneracy."
Yes. While of course not true of everybody, at some point as a nation we reached a tipping point where selfishness and self-interest began to outweigh the greater good. Aided largely by social media, telling people what they want to hear outweighed telling them what they need to know. Collectively we have been our own worst enemy. And while aspects of it are perceived elsewhere too, it remains an open question as to why America has been so much more susceptible to the malady than most other nations and cultures.
That's writing off the majority that voted against Trump both times.
We're human, susceptible to human maladies. Our system was built with the presumption of reasoned civic engagement by people with knowledge of the function of the system, and we've endured a great deal of malicious sabotage of our fundamental civics education and principles.
And yet solid majorities have turned up against Trump both times.
It's not indecency as a population, it's complexity and frustration and no small measure of obfuscation by people who profit from either civic disengagement or ignorance.
Maybe so if you see it in purely political terms. My 30,000-foot-level view takes in more than just that. Individual mileage may vary, but overall ours has become a very selfish, materialistic, me-first culture, and the cost has trickled down into the political arena as well. It's okay to say it out loud.
I usually agree wholeheartedly with you Mr D, but I am not so sure we are washed up yet. I am holding my fire until I see what the election brings. I agree that the majority seems to have their heads at least somewhat straight.
And, we as a people are dealing with a lot major change right now. The cultural stuff, gay marriage, transgender, book banning, christian nationalism, etc, etc.
There is bound to be major turmoil as all this is confronted. There has always been a certain % of any population that is too lazy or ignorant or doesn't want to know the truth. It is easier for them to follow the leader, then they do not have to try and figure things out.
I hope you are right. My bigger-picture point is less to do with politics and more about the overall nature of change -- which is not always for better. The overriding question is: have our politics made us into who we are, or does who we are determine our politics? I'd argue the latter.
I look around and see so much evolution, for worse, in how we interact with each other and regard others. You are right that much progress has been made on larger-scale cultural issues, and that is important. But little things often serve as a tell too, and on our individual windows to the world. Some examples ... look at how people drive, more and more aggressive than ever. I don't recall road rage being an issue several decades earlier, with all of the flying by at breakneck pace, weaving frequently in and out of traffic, flipping the finger, and otherwise acting like everyone else is in our way. Look at how "discussion" has degenerated in quality in online forums (excepting here, where civility rules) to dumpster fire status. Many sites have done away with comments for just that reasons -- if in doubt read some sports pages on Facebook and elsewhere and see how many people begin to act like teenagers (or younger) at the slightest hint of controversy or difference of opinion. And look at how so many among us dress, wearing clothes out and about that, if they tried to donate them to Goodwill, they would put them into the garbage bin instead. All under the banner of "I don't care what people think, ..." and in service to the self. Taken together, it all says something about who we collectively have become, and it is not a pretty picture.
Thus endeth my sermon for today -- go forth and be righteous, just after our final hymn, number 130 in your book, "Just As I Am."
Yes, I believe we are more selfish and less centered on the common good now. It is a message that has bombarded us more and more with each passing generation. We are no longer shaped by the Great Depression and World War II, with their hardships, rather by the subsequent largely deprivation-free eras running from "I've gotta be me" to "greed is good" to "get yours above all else," with more intensity and less tolerance for dissenting viewpoints from others. The proliferation of affordable technology and social media in particular have done a great deal to enhance that, and in a short amount of time.
I tend to agree with your assessment of the upcoming generation, that they are wired somewhat differently in their priorities. But I suspect that it is a reaction more than an action, as they become aware of how much the previous two to three generations have effed up our society and ecology in the name of indulging themselves. What remains to be seen is whether their version of the "I don't want to be like my parents" mindset is truly a sea change or if it lasts only until they have enough to lose that they see things differently. I truly hope that their anti-materialism bend continues rather than yields to economic realities. They seem more aware than many of us that there is much more to life than getting and holding money.
It is less about the toys and more intangible (at least with the youth). More centered upon emotions/feelings. This is, I think, a phenomenon of the internet/social media age.
Trump needs to be mocked, laughed at, humiliated by VP Harris and goaded into saying what he truly feels and thinks about her. Imagine the possibilities! Keep poking him until he erupts.
As the late great Colonel Kurtz once said, they go crazy when I talk about him, but he was a great man, a great man, loved the smell of napalm in the morning. But as he used to say, imagine there was a snail on a boat made of razor blades, and there's a shark in the water. Very unfair, very unfair. They don't tell you about the sharks in the media, by the way, but they're sharks and they're in the water. So would the snail rather crawl across the razor blade or be electrocuted with the shark?
Don, I fully agree that we all need to keep poking and prodding him, but prefer the analogy of exploding, like an over-heated trash bag, spraying his internal garbage over anyone unfortunate enough to be within a blast radius, rather than erupting, since volcanoes can cause death and destruction to anything and anyone over a wide area.
Exploding works! I also changed my original post for VP Harris to take the lead in poking him as a joke and as her INFERIOR. That would be the most effective explosion catalyst.
Of course simply trying to pass it off as a joke is not only intellectually dishonest, it also denies that words have impact upon others. If you say it, you own it, as well as the consequences. This should stick to him no less than our words stick to us, in fact more, given the amount of power and influence involved.
The media reports on what it wants to report. Therein lies your problem. They sell controversy to some and reassurance to others. But they are selling all the time which makes money. If Trump was truly dismissed for the charlatan he is, the GOP would have nothing for their invested time. Then, the voters would not watch as much, less ads would sell and less reporters would get that coveted facetime on TV.
Our elections really are transactional at this point. We're the worse for it.
On that note, I think there might be a little daylight there. Evangelicals are very "law and order." His convictions aren't nothing, even though they discount their importance. And they've gotten everything they wanted from Trump (overturning Roe). And Trump's behavior has always made them uncomfortable. (They do the "we're electing a President, not a pastor" thing, which isn't exactly an endorsement.)
They'll vote for him in droves, if they vote at all, and maybe that's the key. They might sit it out because he's just so awful and JD is just so weird.
I hope there are enough of them sitting this out. But then I see some get so upset by the drag version of the last supper at the Olympics opening ceremony and use this as an excuse to vote for the Orange menace.
His style lends itself to this, right?! He might respond, "The left will say I'm calling off the 2028 election, but I'm just saying I won't be running in that election so I won't be asking you to vote." And he gets free media in some spaces.
I would like to see someone attack him on these rambling rants...if you have to be a member of the cult to understand him, then he cannot be POTUS for all citizens. There are too many important issues for us to be digging around in our Frosted Flakes boxes for a decoder ring!
That's where I think we need to borrow from Reagan. "There you go again..."
Getting in an uproar over it doesn't work. Maybe bemused exasperation combined with a does of, "He either means it, can't control himself, or is deliberately winding you media types up."
Great point! It is funny how humor can totally be disarming.That line from Reagan at Carter and then the one aimed at Mondale about his youth and inexperience. Just brilliant! But they can't seem rehearsed.
That's why I think this "He's so weird" strategy will yield better dividends.
He writes everything off as a joke (I thought busting on McCain would finish him, then the Gold Star family fiasco, by Planet Hollywood nothing really surprised me anymore) but weirdness? That one he can't shake.
Online I've read some tortured explanations: e.g. There are Christians who don't vote as a doctrinal matter. Trump wants them to vote "just this once" so that they will be free never to have to vote again. That is, Trump was courting Don't vote voters.
I don't know, it's only a couple of percent crazier than inviting Hulk Hogan to be the Best Man at the wedding of Donald Trump and JD Vance.
To me, it is very explainable, just like the mountain of similar examples from him. The problem is the mountain. He keeps doing this and keeps doing it all one way. That means they aren't momentary gaffs. At best, he's trolling. At worst....
I would tell people, "No way I'm taking a chance on a guy who called for terminating the Constitution. No one else does that, no one else jokes that way, and there's a GD good reason for that. Now, you want to show me where Harris wants to terminate the Constitution, be a dictator, pardon people I watched attack cops, eliminate voting, etc. and I'll listen. Otherwise, no thanks on Trump."
The party of law and order literally supports a convicted felon running for president, and they attack the former prosecutor Harris? This dog won’t hunt.
"Law and order" is and has always been nothing but a fascist dog-whistle. To the MAGA base, it only makes sense that "law and order" would mean supporting a white male felon while attacking a black prosecutor.
Anything the OCF says will not only hunt, but also kill, maim and commit his preferred treatment of women, sexual violence, for the MAGA Kool-aid crowd.
Bill honestly can't sink as low as he needs to in order for the bit to work. He didn't even threaten anyone with physical harm or talked about his violent fantasies. I keep saying, what Bill would have to do to honestly sound like Trump is beneath him.
The thought that "IDF would eventually crush Hamas, though it would likely take years to grind them down" -- especially if this is considered some form of optimism -- fills me with despair. Every **day** this war continues is an eternity to suffering children and families. Even if Israel can survive and win{*} this protracted nightmare, neither they nor we nor our world will be recognizable at the end of it.
We will be judged and defined by what we choose to call inevitable.
That's the IDF running numbers against Hamas' *current* manpower numbers. It is not thinking about how many recruits will be going into Hamas and PIJ over the next 10 years. Same mistakes we made in Iraq/Afghanistan by focusing on the kill ratio without thinking about the recruiting ratio. If for every Hamas fighter killed 2-3 new members join because of revenge motives of what happened to their neighborhoods/families during IDF bombardment campaigns then the IDF goes net-negative on their kill ratio over time. They're being absolutely delusional in their short-sightedness in thinking that Hamas goes away on their current projected timeline based off of a formula that counts attrition-over-time while discounting addition-over-time.
I am wondering if IDF takes the ceasefire in Gaza (basically suing for peace) now to put their full effort into Hezbollah and other Iran proxies in the north.
OR they could be suing for peace specifically *because* they understand that the N/S threats of LH/Houthi missile barrages can really fuck them up in the short term and cause political headaches for Netanyahu should those elements of the regional conflict really heat up and bring the Israeli body count back up to larger numbers. They may be moving to peace as a way of trying to prevent those Israeli casualties from occurring in the first place. Put out the embers before they start fires. Especially if they suspect that the coalition naval defense of the Red Sea may not be there to help their missile defense indefinitely. IF the Houthis stop striking shipping lanes and start focusing more on launching rockets into Israel then a lot of the international necessity to protect maritime shipping across the Red Sea goes away, and so do those the missile defense systems on those coalition warships when they depart as they're no longer needed to protect maritime shipping traffic.
Yeah, I'm not inspired by the thought of "years" of the IDF blowing up kids in Gaza while Hezbollah blows up kids in the Golan. It just fills me with despair.
I would agree except that since 2007 the IDF has entered Gaza for military ends dozens of times, with a half dozen of those rising to the level of being termed a war or Incursion, capital I, and Israel still got October 7. I don't like Bibi, but I've asked myself what I would have done. Is the choice between some more suffering now or decades of suffering going forward? It's not an easy call.
Bill's column this morning seems like a stretch to me. I think Trump's strapped to Vance like Ahab to The Whale. I don't see how they dump him.
But the Cheap Shots, THAT'S gold. I'd love to see the Harris campaign -- and surrogates -- go after Vance on one of those kinds of things every few days. Keep him off balance. Keep him blaming the media (like he did in Minnesota yesterday). Keep him explaining how he's being taken out of context. Keep. On. Him. He's the weak link.
Let Harris focus on Trump. Everybody else goes after Vance. Ridicule is the best way to beat a bully.
I don't know why someone as unconventional as Trump would feel bound to JD.
I'm not saying it would improve things for him, but on the other hand, when you are losing (and he may think he is) flipping the board seems more and more attractive (for a man with no honor).
I do think I'd shift the attacks on JD to include Trump specifically. "This is the kind of pick made by someone who has clearly lost a step." Define it as a poor decision from the start, not something that Trump can try to clean up as learning new info and course correcting.
It ought to be Harris making the attack you suggest, questioning Trump's judgement in choosing him. But it should be the surrogates directly attacking Vance on his general weirdness, odd views and prior positions. She should NEVER punch down. She needs to go straight at Trump, every day. Leave attacking his lackey to others.
And it would be entertaining to see him kick over the table in a snit, leaving his campaign to clean up the mess. It'd be so in-character for him. Wonder if it will happen!
Yep. Harris could say, "I'm sorry, but JD is a poor pick from Trump which highlights his poor judgement. He's inexperienced and has a multitude of positions that alienate voters. Did Trump not know or care that JD wants no rape exception? Did Trump not know or care that JD is hyper focused on women's fertility?" etc.
"Well, JD's a weird guy. Might be something to ask Trump about, but, really, his history of choosing "the best people" is not that great. How many people in his orbit have been indicted? How many have done prison time? How many did he fire shortly after hiring them? He's just not good at this and the choice of JD seems be be more of the same."
And there’s one other thing. A lot of people LIKE JD. Check out the comments on this video. When I saw the video, I thought the commenters would be ridiculing these guys, but no!
The Washington Post did a piece today on Vance’s conversion to Catholicism in 2019, after being an evangelical, then atheist. He loves the pre- Vatican church…which is the now leaning conservative church ,complete with the Latin mass, et al. I grew up in that but was fortunate to be associated and worked throughout my life with the great social justice priests and church of the 60’s and 70’s which has died out. Much of the church, itself, is fighting Francis. Opus Dei, the far right of the church, origins in France, heavily associated with by Heritage Foundation, and Supreme Court Justices.
I identify with your past, Laura, and especially with a reverence for those priests who worked and sacrificed their lives to bring aid to those suffering from oppressive and unjust regimes.
Vance's chameleon-like connection to religions seems just like his connections to politics. I haven't read the WP article, so thanks for the reference. I would think that Democratic researchers would be able to write a strong offense for Harris and her surrogates to help deflate any growing appeal JD is gaining among the "integralism" believers who are working against Francis.
Within the Vatican, itself, it is filled with conservatives who are blatantly opposed to Francis. One has been excommunicated by Francis. There is so much going on with American bishops who oppose Francis’ social agenda, especially as it pertains to third world Catholics , LBGT, divorce, and the list goes on. The former pope, Benedict, had an opposition group doing his work against Francis while Benedict was still alive, but retired. There is so much within the top levels. Read the reasons which attract Vance. Same as those cardinals and bishops who are so against Francis’ world view. The point is that our politics and religious forces lean very right…and have enormous influence in this country.
I agree with your last thought and then combining with other bad decisions/gut instincts like COVID will disappear, Doha Agreement, etc.:
I do think I'd shift the attacks on JD to include Trump specifically. "This is the kind of pick made by someone who has clearly lost a step." Define it as a poor decision from the start, not something that Trump can try to clean up as learning new info and course correcting.
Totally agree. Trump would throw JD Vance under the bus in a heartbeat. And I could see him making that phone call to his son. I'm not 100% sure it won't happen. If he could force JD Vance off the ticket now, he'd replace her with Nikki Haley. Can't stand Haley, but she would be a 1000 times better than Vance when it comes to campaigning.
Watching the JD videos I was struck by a resemblance between JD and Don Jr. Maybe it's just that bearded men of similar age all look alike to me, but it made me think of the Greek tale of Narcissus - the fool who fell in love with himself. It was not a satisfying love affair (but the flower called narcissus is lovely and delightfully fragrant).
It will be super easy, barely in a inconvenience. Bill laid it out in the newsletter, Vance will be pressured to withdraw and he will. The base will believe that Trump fired him behind the scenes, and this is just the politics of it all. They can use the Don Jr. and Tucker swayed Trump as cover, especially with the recent assassination attempt having clouded his judgement (which understandably so). Reporting at the time is the Trump wanted Bergum. I think that JD will be dumped - I hope he isn't, he is an anchor around Trump's neck, but he is toast. My gut is Vance would have to land a serious blow this week to stay with Trump, otherwise, look for Trump to steal Harris' VP news with some of his own next week.
Normally I would agree but nothing about Trump is normal. I could see them manufacturing some BS excuse and then watch the parade of sycophants (*cough* Chris Sununu) go on TV and explain what a magnificent decision it was an America loves the Dear Leader even more because of it.
Sure, hammering Hillbilly is sound strategy now that people can see that he is damaged goods and not quite the rising star that his MAGA peers evidently felt that he was. (MAGA using poor judgment? Say it ain't so. ) The trick is to make sure not to take the eyes off of the prize -- DJT's lawlessness, lunacy, and evident onset dementia. And, rinse and repeat: he is old, looks it, acts like it, and maybe smells like it. Keep pecking away at him, forcing him into foolish responses, and reminding people about basic math, that DJT+ Project 2025 = Destructive. Tell them what they stand to lose if that comes to pass, starting with Social Security and maybe Medicare (since economic issues almost always get red-flagged at a higher rate), and work your way down the list from there. Go full-on hammer-and-nail for the next 99 days. And keep reminding people that Kamala is the young, shiny, energetic object on a mission in comparison to Stale Old Don and who wants to move us forward, not backward, to help ensure that she gives off the warm vibes of being a fifth Beatle. And since young and determined (Kamala) beats young and nonsensical (Hillbilly) with most objective observers, she is in a good place as long as she keeps hammering the nail.
Re the Middle East, I'm glad I'm not a politician so that I have the luxury of throwing up my hands and walking away from the whole thing under the premise that you can't help people who don't want the assistance. Those in power simply do not want peace, no matter what they say, unless it is on their terms, which ain't gonna happen in anyone's lifetime. Too many centuries of anger and hatred have become ingrained to the point that real compromise and lasting change appear impossible. If there were a way to bring all the interested and impacted groups together, you'd think they'd have found it by now. What I don't understand is why tens of thousands of Americans choose to stay in the region, knowing that it is a ticking time bomb. I'm no expert in this are, but my gut reaction is that there are certain areas of the world where it simply is too risky for long-term planning. For all of our political issues here, rural America (aka the oft-ignored Flyover Country) looks so much better and safer in comparison.* (* Pending the outcome of the November elections.)
And we can't let anyone forget that Trump sabotaged the bi-partisan border bill that Joe would have signed. The immigration turd is in Trump's pocket--let's keep it there.
Yes! Here's the bit: Democrats joined Republicans and voted for a secure border. President Biden was ready to sign it. Trump stopped that bill. Trump doesn't care about a secure border. I will sign that bill.
Yes, don't waist too much on Trumpmeister's chosen successor and future of MAGA. JD has already revealed what total door knob he is and making it look like Dan Quayle was a Rhodes scholar. Keep the focus on Tumpster.
A guy like Trump doesn't really give a rat's ass who succeeds him. He will do whatever the techbros want in order to stay in power now. Putin's the same way.
I really do think hammering Vance is a good strategy. The Cultists protect Trump, no matter what. Attacking him doesn't do much good. But Vance doesn't have a cult. He's just a weirdo who always says nice things about Trump. They might like him, but they don't love him. And if it looks like he's an obstacle to The Second Coming, they'll see Trump dumping him as a brilliant chess move. (He loves us so much he gave up his chosen successor!)
Now Harris, she needs to go after Trump every single day. He's the focus and he's the one she has to beat. But turn all the surrogates and the campaign on Vance. He's the weak link. Losing him from the ticket is going to start another chaotic cycle in the campaign and, with just 100 days to go, they can't really afford that.
You're right, of course. He was talking to reporters yesterday and one of them asked him about this. He said he talks to Trump all the time about this and Trump's all good with him now.
To quote the current President: "Malarkey."
Trump never forgives or forgets. Vance is smart enough to know that when he loses value to Trump, he's done. Vance better up his game fast or he's out and the degree of humiliation to which he will be subjected is directly related to the degree of debasement he's willing to do. Trump will toy with him before he destroys him.
Agree! Trump will have his good and bad days from the dementia standpoint and it's good to remind everyone that Vance is weird, inexperienced and principle-free: we don't really know which Vance would be ruling the country if Trump cannot govern.
"They say Eagleton withdrew after eighteen days, and they replaced him. I wonder if McGovern had some idiot son who told him a young, unvetted senator was a good pick.... That guy Sosnik—Clinton always had smart people, strong people, and he didn’t have an idiot son to give him terrible political advice—and Sosnik said, “He who defines first defines last.”"
Either Trump has suddenly become Michael Beschloss, or I think that might actually be Bill Kristol talking.
Trumpster would use a hell of a lot of EFenheimers in regard to Qusay and Uday. He also won't fire JD. That would be admitting a mistake. We all know he never admits to mistakes and apologizes. (his sign of weakness)
He will absolutely fire JD. He will point to the polls and say that "we have to win, and we won't win with JD." The base will not care. In fact - the base will probably love it if he fires JD because his wife and children are just the wrong shade for them. We can't forget that Trump is running to stay out of prison - he will do whatever it takes to make that happen.
You make a good point. At this point, I'm not even sure firing Vance would hurt him. He could pick Bergum,Haley or Rubio. In fact we should hope he doesn't fire Vance.
Rubio is out due to 12th Amendment. He’d have to move to another state now. Haley likely won’t do him any favors and would just bury the ashes of her already torched career. When Vance goes, it’s gonna be Bergum.
I won't say it couldn't help him compared to where he is now, but another white guy from a (checks notes) swing state... I don't see the Harris campaign being too worried about it.
EFenheimers, nice euphemism. I think I'll steal that for my own use at some later point when fuck seems inappropriate (such as on the What Would Jesus Do website's comment thread).
Also Google "JD Vance, Leonard Leo, Teneo Network" and understand and inform your readers about Leonard Leo (remember the portrait of Harlan Crow with Clarence Thomas? Leo is in it as well). Leo is the ATM behind the Federalist Society and the extremist conservative takeover of the SCOTUS. Having put the court system on the road to Christian Nationalism, Leo is now turning to other parts of American Society such as Wall Street, Silicon Valley and Hollywood with his Teneo Network which includes the like of JD Vance, Elise Stefanik and Josh Hawley (wife Erin argued for banning Mifepristone before the SCOTUS). He's got $1.6 BILLION from Barre Seid to play with too.
We ignore Leonard Leo's influence in Dark Money and the shadow agenda he helps to implement at our own peril. Please move beyond the surface noise of JD Vance's dumbass comments and move into the depth of the plan to implement Project 2025 by all means necessary.
Unfortunately, things like "childless cat ladies" registers with the public easier than they can the intricacies of Project 2025 or that American democracy is endangered. I and others have been trying to get the public concerned about the threat to American democracy for 3 plus years now and it just goes in one ear and out the other. But "childless cat ladies" ...that stuck.
I agree but I think there are a lot of people on the left that have no clue who Leonard Leo is or the reach of his influence. Once enough of the left are properly informed on this, it's easier for them to explain the importance of childless cat ladies to the entire process. The average independent and so called normie Republican may not care, but I think a lot of liberals would. We fail to understand that this is a 50 year crusade by the Right and they are desperate to see it all through.
PS - I also love how WEIRD is sticking too! Such a simple concept.
Putting Trump and Netanyahu on the same page is very telling. They have the same view of their own importance vs anyone and everyone else. Killing people, either directly or indirectly, is just a political strategy. If that is what it takes to stay in power, no amount of innocent lives matters. This is the Stalin philosophy of “ on death is a tragedy, a million deaths are just a statistic. Both of these men are psychopaths, obsessed only with their own power — and both are trying to stay in power in order to stay out of jail. That’s why Trump admires Putin and Xi. I hope America continues to wake up.
This won't be a popular opinion and although I hate Trump to an immeasurable level, I listened to his whole speech (followed by a bottle of mind-bleach). The "you won't have to vote anymore" soundbite seemed to be in the context of his rant that the Dems will cheat the vote again with mail-in ballots, early voting, etc.. and therefore he needs the lazy christian voters to get out and vote this one time so he can win and once he wins he will fix the voting problem and therefore the lazy voters can go back to being lazy in 2028 because he won't need their votes due to a fixed system....
Obviously anything goes with Trump and how he intends to "fix" the problem is a big concern up to and including there won't be a need to vote by then, however the whole context isn't directly getting rid of the need for anyone to vote, but rather the lazy people won't need to <<insert shoulder shrug here>>
I haven't looked at his suggestion, but I've long thought lifetime tenure for federal judges (not just SCT justices) was a mistake. I'd like to see SCT judges have 18 year terms, staggered so every 2 years one is being replaced. With an 18 year term limit, you'd see older people appointed to the SCT, instead of people in their 40s. And you'd see people off the bench before they start declining mentally due to age. And there needs force federal judges to comply with an ethics code.
Will's points about Lebanese Hezbollah are real--particularly with respect to its rocket arsenal. LH is sitting atop--conservative numbers here--150,000+ rockets that are much more advanced than the crude "Qassam rockets" that Hamas uses (Iranian short-to-medium range missiles vs Hamas machine shop rockets). Anti-Missile Defense (AMD) systems like Iron Dome--or even American-made Patriot-3 and AEGIS-based systems--are all vulnerable to sensor saturation because their tracking systems have a maximum number of incoming "tracks"--inbound missile trajectories--that they can fix and counter-fire against at any given point in time. If you fire a barrage of missiles/rockets that exceed that number then every single projectile that exceeds it will come through the counter-fire barrage and impact targets (ex: if a system can only maintain 16 tracks at a time and LH fires 20 rockets simultaneously, 4 of them get through and hit targets). One only needs to count the number of AMD batteries between Israel's northern border and Tel Aviv, estimate a multiplier based on how many open tracks each AMD battery could theoretically maintain, and then compare that number to the arsenal of missiles/rockets that LH has on hand to figure out that LH can overwhelm these systems via volume-of-fire and cause a whole lot of destruction in places like Tel Aviv should a war between Israel and Lebanon go hot. It's not a pretty picture, and that's before you consider what steps Iran would take in support of LH at a time when it is maximizing its munitions productions in support of Putin's war in Ukraine (Putin needs N Korean artillery shells more than it needs Iranian drones/missiles right now, giving Iran the space to shift munitions deliveries to LH if it wants to).
One has to think the IDF has some kind of offensive targeting plan. It's hard to imagine their only plan is to sit back and take it. This could get really ugly really fast. It's been my biggest concern all along.
Yes, the IDF will have a rolling intelligence collection program based off of where it believes LH's missile firing sites in Lebanon are on any given day. The problem here is that many of these sites will be mobile, and although Lebanon is a small enough country to be able to track this kind of thing pretty well, electronic intelligence (ELINT) will be of limited value because unlike anti-missile defense systems that run continuous radar that can be passively detected by ELINT collection platforms, missilie-*firing* sites do not need any kind of continuous emission into the electro-magnetic spectrum that would be vulnerable to detection and geographic fixing. That leaves imagery intelligence (IMINT) via satellite/drone footage, human intelligence (HUMINT) via spies, and comms intelligence (COMINT) via radio traffic intercepts as the primary methods of tracking the mobile missile launch sites. All three of those can be spoofed a lot more easily than ELINT can, and so the IDF/Mossad will plan and pre-strike these missile launch networks and their missile storage sites based on those other fragmented pieces of intel that won't be able to account for everything. And even then, they need to factor how easily Iran can get new batches of missiles into Lebanon via land corridors that they can't necessarily touch in places like Syria and Iraq without risking further regional conflicts if they make mistakes and kill citizens in those countries with targeted strikes there.
This is all before we talk about the other missile-firing sites in Houthi-controlled Yemen to their south that Iran also supplies via a mix of sea and land corridor. The north/south split of the LH/Houthi threats not only divides the burdens of missile defense coverage, it also divides the burdens of intelligence collection and the limited assets needed to cover that aspect of the war/defense planning as well. Even beyond Gaza, the IDF are in a tough situation trying to defend Israel from the missile barrage threat via two north/south axis' and are lucky to have the US and other nations covering a chunk of that air defense envelope in the Red Sea for them, though I wouldn't rely on that shared coverage indefinitely if I were them.
Bibi might want to consider a joint defense alliance with Sunni Arab states who also have military reasons to be displeased with Iran and it's proxies. It's hard to see any other solution for peace in the Middle East other than the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
That's always a perilous arrangement, particularly with authoritarian states. We made a similar play with the Taliban against the USSR during the '80's as I recall. If I were in Israel's shoes, I wouldn't trust the Saudis.
It's also worth noting that Iran has its own friends, not just in the region but internationally as well. The Syrian gov, Russia, Yemeni Houthis, LH just to name a few.
Because getting the Saudis involved risks making a smaller conflict into a larger one. It's the same reason we didn't ask Israel to be a part of the "coalition of the willing" that went into Iraq. Some "friends/allies" become more problematic than helpful on a case by case basis when it comes to stuff like this. You think Iran is going to sit back and watch Saudi Arabia get involved and do nothing about that?
OK, but is Saudi Arabia the only other Islamic (Sunni or Shia) that would be willing to join a peace-keeping force/rebuilding effort in Gaza? Notice I said "peace process," not "war effort." And, yes, I understand the concerns about starting a larger conflict, but under the right diplomatic circumstances (with UN participation?), Iran would be kept involved as well.
We have to keep options open and not be restricted by what has always been the case. Sure, we did not want Israel involved in any of our own mistaken war moves in the region.
I'm talking about a peace process, not belligerence.
The low-level fighting on the Israel-Lebanon border has given Hezbollah a lot of practice sneaking past Israeli anti-missile defenses, partly using drones. Hezbollah released video recorded from drones flying over Tel Aviv and other cities in Israel as a warning. If a war starts, Hezbollah may use a low-level drone attack rather than the barrage of 1960s-era artillery rockets that Israel is expecting.
A war with Hezbollah isn't in Israel's interest, but it will keep Netanyahu out of prison a while longer and make his right-wing maniac coalition partners happy, so it may yet happen.
"If a war starts, Hezbollah may use a low-level drone attack rather than the barrage of 1960s-era artillery rockets that Israel is expecting."
It will be a mix. That's a tactic we've seen proliferating out of Ukraine--a mix of projectiles varying by size and speed to throw off AMD systems. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't (the volley the US/UK/Jordan/Israel shot down heading toward Israel was a mixed volley of drones and varying size/speed rockets for example). That said, the principles of sensor saturation/battery depletion remain the same: if you can fire off more projectiles than the AMD systems can track and/or counter-fire against, then enough projos get through to reek havok on their intended targets. LH/Iran could do swarms of cheaper drones to deplete the counter-battery silos of counter-fire rockets and *then* fire off the Iranian-made rockets after that so that the AMD batteries have nothing left to shoot the 2nd volley of rockets down with. The trick is to ensure that the 2nd volley goes into the air prior to the reload rate on those depleted AMD batteries. LH likely has been probing this factor to estimate the timing of their future mixed rocket/drone volleys in addition to studying the AMD counter-fire envelopes based on altitude and speed of incoming projectile.
It's more like a game of Texas Hold'em where nobody wants to turn the cards over. It's all bluffing and posturing until the cards get turned over and people find out who was bluffing and who wasn't, but by then it's too late and the metaphorical "pot"--the collective body count--is getting divided up and paid for amongst the players.
Hmmm. I think most Arab players in this war, or its expansion (Sunni or Shia), would prefer the chess analogy to any suggestion they resembled "Texas" gamesmanship.
I'm talking about Israel vs Hamas/Houthis/LH/Iran here, not the Arab regional players. The dirty little secret of the Near East is that most of the Arab states don't give a shit about what happens to the Palestinians apart from Jordan and to a certain extent Egypt because they both have to deal with the border issue and Palestinian refugees. Iran hates Israel, Jordan is sympathetic to the Palestinians, Egypt doesn't want border issues, everyone else mostly doesn't give a shit and doesn't want to touch that area with a 10ft pole.
I don't think Israeli society can last through "years" more of the Gaza war. Even if there's no war with Hezbollah, and no escalation of the Houthi anti-shipping campaign, I can't see the rest of the world continuing their support of Israel as the Gaza war gets more and more brutal.
Then there's the effect on Israel itself - as I'm typing this, there's an ongoing standoff at the notorious Sde Teiman detention camp where there was a standoff between the IDF military police and guards they were attempting to arrest for sexual abuse of prisoners. This has escalated into civilians and right-wing members of the Knesset breaking into Sde Teiman and apparently surrounding the buildings where Gazan detainees are being held.
If you think this can go on for "years" longer I don't know what to tell you.
There's a George Kennan quote I really love: "It is an undeniable privilege of every man to prove himself right in the thesis that the world is his enemy; for if he reiterates it frequently enough and makes it the background of his conduct he is bound eventually to be right." It's evergreen.
A noticeably grouchy Trump admitted Saturday that was all BS. “No, I haven’t changed,” he said. “Maybe I’ve gotten worse. Because I get angry at the incompetence that I witness every single day.”
Is he talking about his campaign? Vance? His kids? In the mirror?
"I get angry at the incompetence that I witness every single day."
As someone who's been watching Trump since he started running, I can definitely relate about getting angry at being forced to witness his incompetence. There are about 400,000 dead Americans from COVID on account of his incompetence.
It sounds like you must’ve tapped TFG’s phone, but it was probably at 2 a.m.
It’s really satisfying seeing Kamala’s exuberant rise and Don-old’s petulant plummet. And with him telling people not to bother voting, and feeling immortal enough to be his worst self? Whatever you do, Don-old, do not be nice. Let You be You. We may dodge this bullet yet again.
I would have loved to see Bob Newhart handling the Mar-a-lago call.
The notion of scam fundraisers has been something I'm noticing. I always have to look at the U R L . At this point, I stick with Act Blue.
If you get scam texts, mark them as SPAM on your iPhone if you have one. I’ve used only ActBlue for years. Every person running I’ve been interested supporting has been connected.
I'm not competent enough to get texts. Email is as far in life as I hope to be a master. I have the phone and we each eye the other with a good deal of hostility as we circle in the ring.
Ha! Well put.
I've gotten a bunch of these spam texts but I ignore them. Now I'm marking them as spam and trying to unsubscribe (which, so far, has been unsuccesful)
That would have been right up Newhart's alley! Those phone call bits made his career!
I recall several comedians used the "telephone bit" on Carson. Personally, I tired of them pretty quickly. But it was also a time of the Great Change in stand-up comedy, when it started transitioning from telling jokes with punchlines to observational monologues. Carson brought so many new comics on (David Brenner, Woody Allen, Carlin, others whom I forget) that I think he personally changed the art form. And I agree, Newhart pretty much owned the telephone bits, the others were just imitators.
Kristal is GENIUS! I laughed so hard I spit my iced tea. I read it to my son, and he asked if it was a transcript.
Carson was great in finding talent! I'll add a some more Robert Klein,David Steinberg and David Letterman. I'll add Jonathan Winters, but he was established.
And, off the top of my head, just thought of steve martin and robin williams.
You are right about Steve Martin. I don't remember Williams being on Carson.I could be wrong there. I think Robin made it big with Mork and Mindy. Ii never watched that though I heard about Williams and his fantastic ability to do comedy off the cuff)
Carson was beloved by the just starting out comedians for all the help he gave them. "Here's your break, kid. Show 'em what you got." I always respected him for that. Winters was a genius, can't believe I overlooked him in my examples.
I remember listening to Winters comedy album as a kid.Just amazing. And Williams owes it all to Winters. What can one say except those two were brilliant geniuses at the craft of ad living!
Don’t forget the bus bit.
That's what I'm telling my friends as well. I'm now getting slammed with requests.
I don't know about anyone else, but for me texts are reserved for people I know; I do not respond to any text from anyone I don't know. Stop, always.
No one could do it like him Colleen! Anybody else is a cheap imitation!
Totally agree. I just delete them. It's an intrusion.
You do know when you send something to ActBlue, you'll get solicitations from every Democratic candidate in the country. I'm sure they take off a nice handling fee as well.
I have a separate email I never check just for ActBlue.
That would be hilarious
Huh. Trump reassures an evangelical audience that they only have to vote once more, and after that everything will be fixed, and they won’t have to vote anymore…
I’ve been wondering if that would be The Gaffe that finally stuck to him, but I guess not?
I have been waiting for that gaffe for nine years. He had committed what for anyone else would be “The Gaffe” hundreds if not thousands of times since 2015. I have been waiting for his implosion every day. The political rules we have always lived by in my 71 years no longer apply. That his behavior has no effect at all has just about driven me insane. We are morally, spiritually and politically bankrupt as a country, and I fear we are all about to see the decline and fall of the American empire as a result of our degeneracy.
It's not all of us. Turns out it was mostly those who claim to be the most moral and righteous.
Too true, Catie. And so it is now, and thus it has ever been.
"We are morally, spiritually and politically bankrupt as a country, and I fear we are all about to see the decline and fall of the American empire as a result of our degeneracy."
Yes. While of course not true of everybody, at some point as a nation we reached a tipping point where selfishness and self-interest began to outweigh the greater good. Aided largely by social media, telling people what they want to hear outweighed telling them what they need to know. Collectively we have been our own worst enemy. And while aspects of it are perceived elsewhere too, it remains an open question as to why America has been so much more susceptible to the malady than most other nations and cultures.
I suggest that it's that pesky weaponized First Amendment.
Weaponized First Amendment or weaponized internet?
Is it the medium or the message?
(I realize you have your tongue in your cheek, too.)
Both. The combination is poisonous and way beyond the founder's imaginations.
That's writing off the majority that voted against Trump both times.
We're human, susceptible to human maladies. Our system was built with the presumption of reasoned civic engagement by people with knowledge of the function of the system, and we've endured a great deal of malicious sabotage of our fundamental civics education and principles.
And yet solid majorities have turned up against Trump both times.
It's not indecency as a population, it's complexity and frustration and no small measure of obfuscation by people who profit from either civic disengagement or ignorance.
Maybe so if you see it in purely political terms. My 30,000-foot-level view takes in more than just that. Individual mileage may vary, but overall ours has become a very selfish, materialistic, me-first culture, and the cost has trickled down into the political arena as well. It's okay to say it out loud.
I usually agree wholeheartedly with you Mr D, but I am not so sure we are washed up yet. I am holding my fire until I see what the election brings. I agree that the majority seems to have their heads at least somewhat straight.
And, we as a people are dealing with a lot major change right now. The cultural stuff, gay marriage, transgender, book banning, christian nationalism, etc, etc.
There is bound to be major turmoil as all this is confronted. There has always been a certain % of any population that is too lazy or ignorant or doesn't want to know the truth. It is easier for them to follow the leader, then they do not have to try and figure things out.
I still have some Hopium left.
I hope you are right. My bigger-picture point is less to do with politics and more about the overall nature of change -- which is not always for better. The overriding question is: have our politics made us into who we are, or does who we are determine our politics? I'd argue the latter.
I look around and see so much evolution, for worse, in how we interact with each other and regard others. You are right that much progress has been made on larger-scale cultural issues, and that is important. But little things often serve as a tell too, and on our individual windows to the world. Some examples ... look at how people drive, more and more aggressive than ever. I don't recall road rage being an issue several decades earlier, with all of the flying by at breakneck pace, weaving frequently in and out of traffic, flipping the finger, and otherwise acting like everyone else is in our way. Look at how "discussion" has degenerated in quality in online forums (excepting here, where civility rules) to dumpster fire status. Many sites have done away with comments for just that reasons -- if in doubt read some sports pages on Facebook and elsewhere and see how many people begin to act like teenagers (or younger) at the slightest hint of controversy or difference of opinion. And look at how so many among us dress, wearing clothes out and about that, if they tried to donate them to Goodwill, they would put them into the garbage bin instead. All under the banner of "I don't care what people think, ..." and in service to the self. Taken together, it all says something about who we collectively have become, and it is not a pretty picture.
Thus endeth my sermon for today -- go forth and be righteous, just after our final hymn, number 130 in your book, "Just As I Am."
That's the lament of every generation.
Are we truly more self-centered and narcissistic and materialistic than we were during the Gilded Age? The sixties or the eighties?
I look at the kids and I see the usual angst and turmoil, but I don't see the "He who dies with the most toys wins" ethos we had in the eighties.
Yes, I believe we are more selfish and less centered on the common good now. It is a message that has bombarded us more and more with each passing generation. We are no longer shaped by the Great Depression and World War II, with their hardships, rather by the subsequent largely deprivation-free eras running from "I've gotta be me" to "greed is good" to "get yours above all else," with more intensity and less tolerance for dissenting viewpoints from others. The proliferation of affordable technology and social media in particular have done a great deal to enhance that, and in a short amount of time.
I tend to agree with your assessment of the upcoming generation, that they are wired somewhat differently in their priorities. But I suspect that it is a reaction more than an action, as they become aware of how much the previous two to three generations have effed up our society and ecology in the name of indulging themselves. What remains to be seen is whether their version of the "I don't want to be like my parents" mindset is truly a sea change or if it lasts only until they have enough to lose that they see things differently. I truly hope that their anti-materialism bend continues rather than yields to economic realities. They seem more aware than many of us that there is much more to life than getting and holding money.
It is less about the toys and more intangible (at least with the youth). More centered upon emotions/feelings. This is, I think, a phenomenon of the internet/social media age.
Things were worse during the McCarthy era in the 1950s. And much worse in the 1860s. Remember history. Have a sense of perspective.
That prediction didn’t help him.
Trump needs to be mocked, laughed at, humiliated by VP Harris and goaded into saying what he truly feels and thinks about her. Imagine the possibilities! Keep poking him until he erupts.
Did you call the Code Red?
"You need me on that wall I never built!"
As the late great Colonel Kurtz once said, they go crazy when I talk about him, but he was a great man, a great man, loved the smell of napalm in the morning. But as he used to say, imagine there was a snail on a boat made of razor blades, and there's a shark in the water. Very unfair, very unfair. They don't tell you about the sharks in the media, by the way, but they're sharks and they're in the water. So would the snail rather crawl across the razor blade or be electrocuted with the shark?
Eloquent!
LOL!!!!!
Don, I fully agree that we all need to keep poking and prodding him, but prefer the analogy of exploding, like an over-heated trash bag, spraying his internal garbage over anyone unfortunate enough to be within a blast radius, rather than erupting, since volcanoes can cause death and destruction to anything and anyone over a wide area.
Exploding works! I also changed my original post for VP Harris to take the lead in poking him as a joke and as her INFERIOR. That would be the most effective explosion catalyst.
Not. Whenever there are headwinds from Trump's speech, he inevitably claims it was a joke and our seriously lazy media eat it up.
But I will wager that "Women must be punished" has staying power.
Of course simply trying to pass it off as a joke is not only intellectually dishonest, it also denies that words have impact upon others. If you say it, you own it, as well as the consequences. This should stick to him no less than our words stick to us, in fact more, given the amount of power and influence involved.
The media reports on what it wants to report. Therein lies your problem. They sell controversy to some and reassurance to others. But they are selling all the time which makes money. If Trump was truly dismissed for the charlatan he is, the GOP would have nothing for their invested time. Then, the voters would not watch as much, less ads would sell and less reporters would get that coveted facetime on TV.
Our elections really are transactional at this point. We're the worse for it.
I am wondering why Eggers and Kristol didn’t talk about that.
Nope. It'll be excused, just like everything else.
I am certain that many evangelicals are comfortable with an Iranian style theocracy so long it is under their set of beliefs.
On that note, I think there might be a little daylight there. Evangelicals are very "law and order." His convictions aren't nothing, even though they discount their importance. And they've gotten everything they wanted from Trump (overturning Roe). And Trump's behavior has always made them uncomfortable. (They do the "we're electing a President, not a pastor" thing, which isn't exactly an endorsement.)
They'll vote for him in droves, if they vote at all, and maybe that's the key. They might sit it out because he's just so awful and JD is just so weird.
I hope there are enough of them sitting this out. But then I see some get so upset by the drag version of the last supper at the Olympics opening ceremony and use this as an excuse to vote for the Orange menace.
His style lends itself to this, right?! He might respond, "The left will say I'm calling off the 2028 election, but I'm just saying I won't be running in that election so I won't be asking you to vote." And he gets free media in some spaces.
I would like to see someone attack him on these rambling rants...if you have to be a member of the cult to understand him, then he cannot be POTUS for all citizens. There are too many important issues for us to be digging around in our Frosted Flakes boxes for a decoder ring!
That was no gaffe.
He is telling them what they want to hear (theocracy)
and in turn showing us (once again) who he is and what he will do to
get back into the W.H.
WHEN THE F*&% ARE WE GOING TO ACTUALLY BELIEVE HIM???
We've been waiting for these gaffes for eight years but it never moves the needle. The skeptic in me says this won't either.
That's where I think we need to borrow from Reagan. "There you go again..."
Getting in an uproar over it doesn't work. Maybe bemused exasperation combined with a does of, "He either means it, can't control himself, or is deliberately winding you media types up."
Great point! It is funny how humor can totally be disarming.That line from Reagan at Carter and then the one aimed at Mondale about his youth and inexperience. Just brilliant! But they can't seem rehearsed.
That's why I think this "He's so weird" strategy will yield better dividends.
He writes everything off as a joke (I thought busting on McCain would finish him, then the Gold Star family fiasco, by Planet Hollywood nothing really surprised me anymore) but weirdness? That one he can't shake.
Online I've read some tortured explanations: e.g. There are Christians who don't vote as a doctrinal matter. Trump wants them to vote "just this once" so that they will be free never to have to vote again. That is, Trump was courting Don't vote voters.
I don't know, it's only a couple of percent crazier than inviting Hulk Hogan to be the Best Man at the wedding of Donald Trump and JD Vance.
To me, it is very explainable, just like the mountain of similar examples from him. The problem is the mountain. He keeps doing this and keeps doing it all one way. That means they aren't momentary gaffs. At best, he's trolling. At worst....
I would tell people, "No way I'm taking a chance on a guy who called for terminating the Constitution. No one else does that, no one else jokes that way, and there's a GD good reason for that. Now, you want to show me where Harris wants to terminate the Constitution, be a dictator, pardon people I watched attack cops, eliminate voting, etc. and I'll listen. Otherwise, no thanks on Trump."
It could be. If MSM would take it up as seriously as they took up Biden's age. Otherwise, just more sh*t flooding the zone.
Nothing in the newspapers about it, but that's baked in. CEOs are scrambling to provide cover. They won't be able to keep it up until November.
The party of law and order literally supports a convicted felon running for president, and they attack the former prosecutor Harris? This dog won’t hunt.
"Law and order" is and has always been nothing but a fascist dog-whistle. To the MAGA base, it only makes sense that "law and order" would mean supporting a white male felon while attacking a black prosecutor.
It’s comparable to evangelicals sitting through dear leader the chosen ones’s hate filled nonsense.
There is so much material Harris has to literally and figuratively prosecute her case.
It will for MAGA.
Anything the OCF says will not only hunt, but also kill, maim and commit his preferred treatment of women, sexual violence, for the MAGA Kool-aid crowd.
David, remind me what the O stands for. I know c and f are convicted felon.I know you invented that acronym!
Could also be ACF.... O=Old; A=Ancient
Keep them coming!
Frankly, I'd rather not have to. Only another 109 days 🤞🙏
Or 51 days (until 18 September).
Orange?
Thanks! It certainly fits!
I love that you think he knows who Eagleton or McGovern are 😂
Bill honestly can't sink as low as he needs to in order for the bit to work. He didn't even threaten anyone with physical harm or talked about his violent fantasies. I keep saying, what Bill would have to do to honestly sound like Trump is beneath him.
The thought that "IDF would eventually crush Hamas, though it would likely take years to grind them down" -- especially if this is considered some form of optimism -- fills me with despair. Every **day** this war continues is an eternity to suffering children and families. Even if Israel can survive and win{*} this protracted nightmare, neither they nor we nor our world will be recognizable at the end of it.
We will be judged and defined by what we choose to call inevitable.
------------------
{*} whatever that means
That's the IDF running numbers against Hamas' *current* manpower numbers. It is not thinking about how many recruits will be going into Hamas and PIJ over the next 10 years. Same mistakes we made in Iraq/Afghanistan by focusing on the kill ratio without thinking about the recruiting ratio. If for every Hamas fighter killed 2-3 new members join because of revenge motives of what happened to their neighborhoods/families during IDF bombardment campaigns then the IDF goes net-negative on their kill ratio over time. They're being absolutely delusional in their short-sightedness in thinking that Hamas goes away on their current projected timeline based off of a formula that counts attrition-over-time while discounting addition-over-time.
I am wondering if IDF takes the ceasefire in Gaza (basically suing for peace) now to put their full effort into Hezbollah and other Iran proxies in the north.
OR they could be suing for peace specifically *because* they understand that the N/S threats of LH/Houthi missile barrages can really fuck them up in the short term and cause political headaches for Netanyahu should those elements of the regional conflict really heat up and bring the Israeli body count back up to larger numbers. They may be moving to peace as a way of trying to prevent those Israeli casualties from occurring in the first place. Put out the embers before they start fires. Especially if they suspect that the coalition naval defense of the Red Sea may not be there to help their missile defense indefinitely. IF the Houthis stop striking shipping lanes and start focusing more on launching rockets into Israel then a lot of the international necessity to protect maritime shipping across the Red Sea goes away, and so do those the missile defense systems on those coalition warships when they depart as they're no longer needed to protect maritime shipping traffic.
Yeah, I'm not inspired by the thought of "years" of the IDF blowing up kids in Gaza while Hezbollah blows up kids in the Golan. It just fills me with despair.
I would agree except that since 2007 the IDF has entered Gaza for military ends dozens of times, with a half dozen of those rising to the level of being termed a war or Incursion, capital I, and Israel still got October 7. I don't like Bibi, but I've asked myself what I would have done. Is the choice between some more suffering now or decades of suffering going forward? It's not an easy call.
Good to see you back, Amanda!
Bill's column this morning seems like a stretch to me. I think Trump's strapped to Vance like Ahab to The Whale. I don't see how they dump him.
But the Cheap Shots, THAT'S gold. I'd love to see the Harris campaign -- and surrogates -- go after Vance on one of those kinds of things every few days. Keep him off balance. Keep him blaming the media (like he did in Minnesota yesterday). Keep him explaining how he's being taken out of context. Keep. On. Him. He's the weak link.
Let Harris focus on Trump. Everybody else goes after Vance. Ridicule is the best way to beat a bully.
I don't know why someone as unconventional as Trump would feel bound to JD.
I'm not saying it would improve things for him, but on the other hand, when you are losing (and he may think he is) flipping the board seems more and more attractive (for a man with no honor).
I do think I'd shift the attacks on JD to include Trump specifically. "This is the kind of pick made by someone who has clearly lost a step." Define it as a poor decision from the start, not something that Trump can try to clean up as learning new info and course correcting.
Very much agree.
It ought to be Harris making the attack you suggest, questioning Trump's judgement in choosing him. But it should be the surrogates directly attacking Vance on his general weirdness, odd views and prior positions. She should NEVER punch down. She needs to go straight at Trump, every day. Leave attacking his lackey to others.
And it would be entertaining to see him kick over the table in a snit, leaving his campaign to clean up the mess. It'd be so in-character for him. Wonder if it will happen!
Yep. Harris could say, "I'm sorry, but JD is a poor pick from Trump which highlights his poor judgement. He's inexperienced and has a multitude of positions that alienate voters. Did Trump not know or care that JD wants no rape exception? Did Trump not know or care that JD is hyper focused on women's fertility?" etc.
I might even recommend a more indirect approach.
"Well, JD's a weird guy. Might be something to ask Trump about, but, really, his history of choosing "the best people" is not that great. How many people in his orbit have been indicted? How many have done prison time? How many did he fire shortly after hiring them? He's just not good at this and the choice of JD seems be be more of the same."
Good one. Add in all the ones he's had that have come out to say how bad he is.
"A person can claim they are good at picking people, but reality is where we go for truth on something like that."
There are so many variations on the same theme:
Guys like Rex Tillerson, whom he called brilliant when he brought him in and then "dumb as a rock" after he fired him.
Guys who quit because they couldn't work for him. Great when hired, dumb when fired.
Guys he praised who then wound up in jail.
The list is long.
right--remember Trump stated that Doug might be an issue b/c he signed a strict abortion law in ND.
And there’s one other thing. A lot of people LIKE JD. Check out the comments on this video. When I saw the video, I thought the commenters would be ridiculing these guys, but no!
https://youtu.be/Q-mWdyexcbA?si=90RrmO3KVklKbiLi
The commenters are 100% favorable toward him, think this will trigger the libs and found it brilliant. These people are out there.
But I'm not sure those people are the semi-mythical 'swing voters'.
Absolutely. I've many right-wing Catholic family members who mentioned to me directly they like Vance's stand on abortion and "traditional family."
They've been waiting for someone like JD and prefer him to Trump (not that they would admit to any complaint about Trump to me).
I've never watched the Dukes of Hazard, but if I had to pick one Trump ad to watch in my "re-education camp" prison cell, this would probably be it.
The Washington Post did a piece today on Vance’s conversion to Catholicism in 2019, after being an evangelical, then atheist. He loves the pre- Vatican church…which is the now leaning conservative church ,complete with the Latin mass, et al. I grew up in that but was fortunate to be associated and worked throughout my life with the great social justice priests and church of the 60’s and 70’s which has died out. Much of the church, itself, is fighting Francis. Opus Dei, the far right of the church, origins in France, heavily associated with by Heritage Foundation, and Supreme Court Justices.
I identify with your past, Laura, and especially with a reverence for those priests who worked and sacrificed their lives to bring aid to those suffering from oppressive and unjust regimes.
Vance's chameleon-like connection to religions seems just like his connections to politics. I haven't read the WP article, so thanks for the reference. I would think that Democratic researchers would be able to write a strong offense for Harris and her surrogates to help deflate any growing appeal JD is gaining among the "integralism" believers who are working against Francis.
Within the Vatican, itself, it is filled with conservatives who are blatantly opposed to Francis. One has been excommunicated by Francis. There is so much going on with American bishops who oppose Francis’ social agenda, especially as it pertains to third world Catholics , LBGT, divorce, and the list goes on. The former pope, Benedict, had an opposition group doing his work against Francis while Benedict was still alive, but retired. There is so much within the top levels. Read the reasons which attract Vance. Same as those cardinals and bishops who are so against Francis’ world view. The point is that our politics and religious forces lean very right…and have enormous influence in this country.
I agree with your last thought and then combining with other bad decisions/gut instincts like COVID will disappear, Doha Agreement, etc.:
I do think I'd shift the attacks on JD to include Trump specifically. "This is the kind of pick made by someone who has clearly lost a step." Define it as a poor decision from the start, not something that Trump can try to clean up as learning new info and course correcting.
Totally agree. Trump would throw JD Vance under the bus in a heartbeat. And I could see him making that phone call to his son. I'm not 100% sure it won't happen. If he could force JD Vance off the ticket now, he'd replace her with Nikki Haley. Can't stand Haley, but she would be a 1000 times better than Vance when it comes to campaigning.
Watching the JD videos I was struck by a resemblance between JD and Don Jr. Maybe it's just that bearded men of similar age all look alike to me, but it made me think of the Greek tale of Narcissus - the fool who fell in love with himself. It was not a satisfying love affair (but the flower called narcissus is lovely and delightfully fragrant).
It will be super easy, barely in a inconvenience. Bill laid it out in the newsletter, Vance will be pressured to withdraw and he will. The base will believe that Trump fired him behind the scenes, and this is just the politics of it all. They can use the Don Jr. and Tucker swayed Trump as cover, especially with the recent assassination attempt having clouded his judgement (which understandably so). Reporting at the time is the Trump wanted Bergum. I think that JD will be dumped - I hope he isn't, he is an anchor around Trump's neck, but he is toast. My gut is Vance would have to land a serious blow this week to stay with Trump, otherwise, look for Trump to steal Harris' VP news with some of his own next week.
Well, Trump did express "complete confidence" in Vance this morning. That's usually the prelude to a firing.
Switching VP picks after the convention is Tight!
Normally I would agree but nothing about Trump is normal. I could see them manufacturing some BS excuse and then watch the parade of sycophants (*cough* Chris Sununu) go on TV and explain what a magnificent decision it was an America loves the Dear Leader even more because of it.
Harris probably will. I know Rick Wilson will, as will Sarah's group.
Sure, hammering Hillbilly is sound strategy now that people can see that he is damaged goods and not quite the rising star that his MAGA peers evidently felt that he was. (MAGA using poor judgment? Say it ain't so. ) The trick is to make sure not to take the eyes off of the prize -- DJT's lawlessness, lunacy, and evident onset dementia. And, rinse and repeat: he is old, looks it, acts like it, and maybe smells like it. Keep pecking away at him, forcing him into foolish responses, and reminding people about basic math, that DJT+ Project 2025 = Destructive. Tell them what they stand to lose if that comes to pass, starting with Social Security and maybe Medicare (since economic issues almost always get red-flagged at a higher rate), and work your way down the list from there. Go full-on hammer-and-nail for the next 99 days. And keep reminding people that Kamala is the young, shiny, energetic object on a mission in comparison to Stale Old Don and who wants to move us forward, not backward, to help ensure that she gives off the warm vibes of being a fifth Beatle. And since young and determined (Kamala) beats young and nonsensical (Hillbilly) with most objective observers, she is in a good place as long as she keeps hammering the nail.
Re the Middle East, I'm glad I'm not a politician so that I have the luxury of throwing up my hands and walking away from the whole thing under the premise that you can't help people who don't want the assistance. Those in power simply do not want peace, no matter what they say, unless it is on their terms, which ain't gonna happen in anyone's lifetime. Too many centuries of anger and hatred have become ingrained to the point that real compromise and lasting change appear impossible. If there were a way to bring all the interested and impacted groups together, you'd think they'd have found it by now. What I don't understand is why tens of thousands of Americans choose to stay in the region, knowing that it is a ticking time bomb. I'm no expert in this are, but my gut reaction is that there are certain areas of the world where it simply is too risky for long-term planning. For all of our political issues here, rural America (aka the oft-ignored Flyover Country) looks so much better and safer in comparison.* (* Pending the outcome of the November elections.)
And we can't let anyone forget that Trump sabotaged the bi-partisan border bill that Joe would have signed. The immigration turd is in Trump's pocket--let's keep it there.
Yes! Here's the bit: Democrats joined Republicans and voted for a secure border. President Biden was ready to sign it. Trump stopped that bill. Trump doesn't care about a secure border. I will sign that bill.
Something like that.
Yes, don't waist too much on Trumpmeister's chosen successor and future of MAGA. JD has already revealed what total door knob he is and making it look like Dan Quayle was a Rhodes scholar. Keep the focus on Tumpster.
A guy like Trump doesn't really give a rat's ass who succeeds him. He will do whatever the techbros want in order to stay in power now. Putin's the same way.
I really do think hammering Vance is a good strategy. The Cultists protect Trump, no matter what. Attacking him doesn't do much good. But Vance doesn't have a cult. He's just a weirdo who always says nice things about Trump. They might like him, but they don't love him. And if it looks like he's an obstacle to The Second Coming, they'll see Trump dumping him as a brilliant chess move. (He loves us so much he gave up his chosen successor!)
Now Harris, she needs to go after Trump every single day. He's the focus and he's the one she has to beat. But turn all the surrogates and the campaign on Vance. He's the weak link. Losing him from the ticket is going to start another chaotic cycle in the campaign and, with just 100 days to go, they can't really afford that.
"He's just a weirdo who always says nice things about Trump."
Not always, which shouldn't be lost in all of this.
You're right, of course. He was talking to reporters yesterday and one of them asked him about this. He said he talks to Trump all the time about this and Trump's all good with him now.
To quote the current President: "Malarkey."
Trump never forgives or forgets. Vance is smart enough to know that when he loses value to Trump, he's done. Vance better up his game fast or he's out and the degree of humiliation to which he will be subjected is directly related to the degree of debasement he's willing to do. Trump will toy with him before he destroys him.
Agree! Trump will have his good and bad days from the dementia standpoint and it's good to remind everyone that Vance is weird, inexperienced and principle-free: we don't really know which Vance would be ruling the country if Trump cannot govern.
"They say Eagleton withdrew after eighteen days, and they replaced him. I wonder if McGovern had some idiot son who told him a young, unvetted senator was a good pick.... That guy Sosnik—Clinton always had smart people, strong people, and he didn’t have an idiot son to give him terrible political advice—and Sosnik said, “He who defines first defines last.”"
Either Trump has suddenly become Michael Beschloss, or I think that might actually be Bill Kristol talking.
Trumpster would use a hell of a lot of EFenheimers in regard to Qusay and Uday. He also won't fire JD. That would be admitting a mistake. We all know he never admits to mistakes and apologizes. (his sign of weakness)
He will absolutely fire JD. He will point to the polls and say that "we have to win, and we won't win with JD." The base will not care. In fact - the base will probably love it if he fires JD because his wife and children are just the wrong shade for them. We can't forget that Trump is running to stay out of prison - he will do whatever it takes to make that happen.
You make a good point. At this point, I'm not even sure firing Vance would hurt him. He could pick Bergum,Haley or Rubio. In fact we should hope he doesn't fire Vance.
Rubio is out due to 12th Amendment. He’d have to move to another state now. Haley likely won’t do him any favors and would just bury the ashes of her already torched career. When Vance goes, it’s gonna be Bergum.
I read Bergum was his first choice.And it makes sense.
I won't say it couldn't help him compared to where he is now, but another white guy from a (checks notes) swing state... I don't see the Harris campaign being too worried about it.
EFenheimers, nice euphemism. I think I'll steal that for my own use at some later point when fuck seems inappropriate (such as on the What Would Jesus Do website's comment thread).
Be my Guest!
I'm starting to use Trumpmeister. Trumpster doesn't seem to be catching on!
I still believe you are falling prey to the easy hit of bashing the Trump Bros for pushing JD Vance on Big Daddy and missing the fact that The Heritage Foundation (Project 2025) Kevin Roberts was thrilled with his selection. https://newrepublic.com/post/183841/project-2025-overjoyed-trump-vice-president-vance
https://www.vox.com/politics/362917/jd-vance-project-2025-book-kevin-roberts-trump
Also Google "JD Vance, Leonard Leo, Teneo Network" and understand and inform your readers about Leonard Leo (remember the portrait of Harlan Crow with Clarence Thomas? Leo is in it as well). Leo is the ATM behind the Federalist Society and the extremist conservative takeover of the SCOTUS. Having put the court system on the road to Christian Nationalism, Leo is now turning to other parts of American Society such as Wall Street, Silicon Valley and Hollywood with his Teneo Network which includes the like of JD Vance, Elise Stefanik and Josh Hawley (wife Erin argued for banning Mifepristone before the SCOTUS). He's got $1.6 BILLION from Barre Seid to play with too.
We ignore Leonard Leo's influence in Dark Money and the shadow agenda he helps to implement at our own peril. Please move beyond the surface noise of JD Vance's dumbass comments and move into the depth of the plan to implement Project 2025 by all means necessary.
100% this. And then some.
Unfortunately, things like "childless cat ladies" registers with the public easier than they can the intricacies of Project 2025 or that American democracy is endangered. I and others have been trying to get the public concerned about the threat to American democracy for 3 plus years now and it just goes in one ear and out the other. But "childless cat ladies" ...that stuck.
I agree but I think there are a lot of people on the left that have no clue who Leonard Leo is or the reach of his influence. Once enough of the left are properly informed on this, it's easier for them to explain the importance of childless cat ladies to the entire process. The average independent and so called normie Republican may not care, but I think a lot of liberals would. We fail to understand that this is a 50 year crusade by the Right and they are desperate to see it all through.
PS - I also love how WEIRD is sticking too! Such a simple concept.
Yes, Trump is their puppet.
Putting Trump and Netanyahu on the same page is very telling. They have the same view of their own importance vs anyone and everyone else. Killing people, either directly or indirectly, is just a political strategy. If that is what it takes to stay in power, no amount of innocent lives matters. This is the Stalin philosophy of “ on death is a tragedy, a million deaths are just a statistic. Both of these men are psychopaths, obsessed only with their own power — and both are trying to stay in power in order to stay out of jail. That’s why Trump admires Putin and Xi. I hope America continues to wake up.
I was surprised to read that Stalin was only something like 5' 4"". Trump is taller, but short on the inside.
Two con men crooks (Bibi and Trumpster)
Trump didn’t just get conned. He got conned by techbro weirdos like Thiel and Musk and Mencius Moldbug.
What’s underappreciated is that he was selling the vice presidency for campaign contributions.
Irony of ironies if he didn't get cash up front. And it looks like with Musk, he didn't.
Yeah, if he’s getting taken by Elon Musk what’s going to happen with Putin, Xi and Kim? Weak!
Trump's "You won't have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians" comment (https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-saying-you-wont-have-vote-four-years-sparks-fear-1931054) is not even worth a Quick Hit or a Cheap Shot?
What are we doing here?
What truly revolted me about that comment was the thought of the people who were just lapping it up.
This won't be a popular opinion and although I hate Trump to an immeasurable level, I listened to his whole speech (followed by a bottle of mind-bleach). The "you won't have to vote anymore" soundbite seemed to be in the context of his rant that the Dems will cheat the vote again with mail-in ballots, early voting, etc.. and therefore he needs the lazy christian voters to get out and vote this one time so he can win and once he wins he will fix the voting problem and therefore the lazy voters can go back to being lazy in 2028 because he won't need their votes due to a fixed system....
Obviously anything goes with Trump and how he intends to "fix" the problem is a big concern up to and including there won't be a need to vote by then, however the whole context isn't directly getting rid of the need for anyone to vote, but rather the lazy people won't need to <<insert shoulder shrug here>>
Funny, just like the "bloodbath" thing. Always a back door.
Once you develop a reputation for talking gibberish, life just kind of falls into place, doesn't it? Anything can mean anything.
They're probably saving it for JVL's piece later today.
Yeah, but they could have at least done a Cheap Shot, she said grumpily.
To me, that comment seemed epochal.
(two hours later ...) yeah no.
It wasn't in the Washington Post this morning. But President Biden's OpEd on the Supreme Court was there at first billing.
I haven't looked at his suggestion, but I've long thought lifetime tenure for federal judges (not just SCT justices) was a mistake. I'd like to see SCT judges have 18 year terms, staggered so every 2 years one is being replaced. With an 18 year term limit, you'd see older people appointed to the SCT, instead of people in their 40s. And you'd see people off the bench before they start declining mentally due to age. And there needs force federal judges to comply with an ethics code.
Will's points about Lebanese Hezbollah are real--particularly with respect to its rocket arsenal. LH is sitting atop--conservative numbers here--150,000+ rockets that are much more advanced than the crude "Qassam rockets" that Hamas uses (Iranian short-to-medium range missiles vs Hamas machine shop rockets). Anti-Missile Defense (AMD) systems like Iron Dome--or even American-made Patriot-3 and AEGIS-based systems--are all vulnerable to sensor saturation because their tracking systems have a maximum number of incoming "tracks"--inbound missile trajectories--that they can fix and counter-fire against at any given point in time. If you fire a barrage of missiles/rockets that exceed that number then every single projectile that exceeds it will come through the counter-fire barrage and impact targets (ex: if a system can only maintain 16 tracks at a time and LH fires 20 rockets simultaneously, 4 of them get through and hit targets). One only needs to count the number of AMD batteries between Israel's northern border and Tel Aviv, estimate a multiplier based on how many open tracks each AMD battery could theoretically maintain, and then compare that number to the arsenal of missiles/rockets that LH has on hand to figure out that LH can overwhelm these systems via volume-of-fire and cause a whole lot of destruction in places like Tel Aviv should a war between Israel and Lebanon go hot. It's not a pretty picture, and that's before you consider what steps Iran would take in support of LH at a time when it is maximizing its munitions productions in support of Putin's war in Ukraine (Putin needs N Korean artillery shells more than it needs Iranian drones/missiles right now, giving Iran the space to shift munitions deliveries to LH if it wants to).
One has to think the IDF has some kind of offensive targeting plan. It's hard to imagine their only plan is to sit back and take it. This could get really ugly really fast. It's been my biggest concern all along.
Yes, the IDF will have a rolling intelligence collection program based off of where it believes LH's missile firing sites in Lebanon are on any given day. The problem here is that many of these sites will be mobile, and although Lebanon is a small enough country to be able to track this kind of thing pretty well, electronic intelligence (ELINT) will be of limited value because unlike anti-missile defense systems that run continuous radar that can be passively detected by ELINT collection platforms, missilie-*firing* sites do not need any kind of continuous emission into the electro-magnetic spectrum that would be vulnerable to detection and geographic fixing. That leaves imagery intelligence (IMINT) via satellite/drone footage, human intelligence (HUMINT) via spies, and comms intelligence (COMINT) via radio traffic intercepts as the primary methods of tracking the mobile missile launch sites. All three of those can be spoofed a lot more easily than ELINT can, and so the IDF/Mossad will plan and pre-strike these missile launch networks and their missile storage sites based on those other fragmented pieces of intel that won't be able to account for everything. And even then, they need to factor how easily Iran can get new batches of missiles into Lebanon via land corridors that they can't necessarily touch in places like Syria and Iraq without risking further regional conflicts if they make mistakes and kill citizens in those countries with targeted strikes there.
This is all before we talk about the other missile-firing sites in Houthi-controlled Yemen to their south that Iran also supplies via a mix of sea and land corridor. The north/south split of the LH/Houthi threats not only divides the burdens of missile defense coverage, it also divides the burdens of intelligence collection and the limited assets needed to cover that aspect of the war/defense planning as well. Even beyond Gaza, the IDF are in a tough situation trying to defend Israel from the missile barrage threat via two north/south axis' and are lucky to have the US and other nations covering a chunk of that air defense envelope in the Red Sea for them, though I wouldn't rely on that shared coverage indefinitely if I were them.
Bibi might want to consider a joint defense alliance with Sunni Arab states who also have military reasons to be displeased with Iran and it's proxies. It's hard to see any other solution for peace in the Middle East other than the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
That's always a perilous arrangement, particularly with authoritarian states. We made a similar play with the Taliban against the USSR during the '80's as I recall. If I were in Israel's shoes, I wouldn't trust the Saudis.
It's also worth noting that Iran has its own friends, not just in the region but internationally as well. The Syrian gov, Russia, Yemeni Houthis, LH just to name a few.
Exactly. Why haven't we heard more about the Arab states that were supposed to be included in a peace process between Hamas and Israel?
Because getting the Saudis involved risks making a smaller conflict into a larger one. It's the same reason we didn't ask Israel to be a part of the "coalition of the willing" that went into Iraq. Some "friends/allies" become more problematic than helpful on a case by case basis when it comes to stuff like this. You think Iran is going to sit back and watch Saudi Arabia get involved and do nothing about that?
OK, but is Saudi Arabia the only other Islamic (Sunni or Shia) that would be willing to join a peace-keeping force/rebuilding effort in Gaza? Notice I said "peace process," not "war effort." And, yes, I understand the concerns about starting a larger conflict, but under the right diplomatic circumstances (with UN participation?), Iran would be kept involved as well.
We have to keep options open and not be restricted by what has always been the case. Sure, we did not want Israel involved in any of our own mistaken war moves in the region.
I'm talking about a peace process, not belligerence.
The low-level fighting on the Israel-Lebanon border has given Hezbollah a lot of practice sneaking past Israeli anti-missile defenses, partly using drones. Hezbollah released video recorded from drones flying over Tel Aviv and other cities in Israel as a warning. If a war starts, Hezbollah may use a low-level drone attack rather than the barrage of 1960s-era artillery rockets that Israel is expecting.
A war with Hezbollah isn't in Israel's interest, but it will keep Netanyahu out of prison a while longer and make his right-wing maniac coalition partners happy, so it may yet happen.
"If a war starts, Hezbollah may use a low-level drone attack rather than the barrage of 1960s-era artillery rockets that Israel is expecting."
It will be a mix. That's a tactic we've seen proliferating out of Ukraine--a mix of projectiles varying by size and speed to throw off AMD systems. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't (the volley the US/UK/Jordan/Israel shot down heading toward Israel was a mixed volley of drones and varying size/speed rockets for example). That said, the principles of sensor saturation/battery depletion remain the same: if you can fire off more projectiles than the AMD systems can track and/or counter-fire against, then enough projos get through to reek havok on their intended targets. LH/Iran could do swarms of cheaper drones to deplete the counter-battery silos of counter-fire rockets and *then* fire off the Iranian-made rockets after that so that the AMD batteries have nothing left to shoot the 2nd volley of rockets down with. The trick is to ensure that the 2nd volley goes into the air prior to the reload rate on those depleted AMD batteries. LH likely has been probing this factor to estimate the timing of their future mixed rocket/drone volleys in addition to studying the AMD counter-fire envelopes based on altitude and speed of incoming projectile.
Three-dimensional chess with exploding pieces.
It's more like a game of Texas Hold'em where nobody wants to turn the cards over. It's all bluffing and posturing until the cards get turned over and people find out who was bluffing and who wasn't, but by then it's too late and the metaphorical "pot"--the collective body count--is getting divided up and paid for amongst the players.
Hmmm. I think most Arab players in this war, or its expansion (Sunni or Shia), would prefer the chess analogy to any suggestion they resembled "Texas" gamesmanship.
The diplomacy is in the implications.
I'm talking about Israel vs Hamas/Houthis/LH/Iran here, not the Arab regional players. The dirty little secret of the Near East is that most of the Arab states don't give a shit about what happens to the Palestinians apart from Jordan and to a certain extent Egypt because they both have to deal with the border issue and Palestinian refugees. Iran hates Israel, Jordan is sympathetic to the Palestinians, Egypt doesn't want border issues, everyone else mostly doesn't give a shit and doesn't want to touch that area with a 10ft pole.
I don't think Israeli society can last through "years" more of the Gaza war. Even if there's no war with Hezbollah, and no escalation of the Houthi anti-shipping campaign, I can't see the rest of the world continuing their support of Israel as the Gaza war gets more and more brutal.
Then there's the effect on Israel itself - as I'm typing this, there's an ongoing standoff at the notorious Sde Teiman detention camp where there was a standoff between the IDF military police and guards they were attempting to arrest for sexual abuse of prisoners. This has escalated into civilians and right-wing members of the Knesset breaking into Sde Teiman and apparently surrounding the buildings where Gazan detainees are being held.
If you think this can go on for "years" longer I don't know what to tell you.
There's a George Kennan quote I really love: "It is an undeniable privilege of every man to prove himself right in the thesis that the world is his enemy; for if he reiterates it frequently enough and makes it the background of his conduct he is bound eventually to be right." It's evergreen.
Here's the problem. These people want to eliminate Israel as a state and probably kill all the people that live there. Do we let that happen?
A noticeably grouchy Trump admitted Saturday that was all BS. “No, I haven’t changed,” he said. “Maybe I’ve gotten worse. Because I get angry at the incompetence that I witness every single day.”
Is he talking about his campaign? Vance? His kids? In the mirror?
"I get angry at the incompetence that I witness every single day."
As someone who's been watching Trump since he started running, I can definitely relate about getting angry at being forced to witness his incompetence. There are about 400,000 dead Americans from COVID on account of his incompetence.
It sounds like you must’ve tapped TFG’s phone, but it was probably at 2 a.m.
It’s really satisfying seeing Kamala’s exuberant rise and Don-old’s petulant plummet. And with him telling people not to bother voting, and feeling immortal enough to be his worst self? Whatever you do, Don-old, do not be nice. Let You be You. We may dodge this bullet yet again.