Jar Jar Binks was originally meant to be the villain of The Phantom Menace but George Lucas chickened out. Do you believe that to be (a) true or (b) really, really true?
Sorry, late to the party here. I’m in Australia so I only see posts late and an an Orthodox Jew so I don’t see them until Sunday. My question is about political crystal ball gazing. Everyone is convinced (justifiably) hat Trump is likely to be the next republican nominee. They further assume he (or another republican) is likely to get a similar proportion of votes to 2020, or more, I.e that 2020 was his floor. I’m not sure why this is the case. 30% of republicans who believe the last election was legitimate. If even 3% of those (1% of the total) decide not to vote for trump next time it’s all over unless he can find new votes from somewhere else. It seems unlikely that he’ll manage this given how high turnout the last election was and given that he’s not really trying to get new votes. Why shouldn’t we think that next time Trump will likely lose by a landslide, as an analytical matter. I’m not saying this to be complacent. Rather, I’m asking why the doom casting is all so certain.
That is one possible outcome. Another is that he'd lose another close election. Or that he wins a close election.
The rural party starts out being spotted something close to 5 pts. in the popular vote, so all he has to do is lose by -3 in order to have a very good chance of winning.
Also: I would be hesitant to draw lessons in turnout from 2020. No idea what procedures for voting will be like in most of the country come 11/24.
This also assumes that the D candidate (Probably Joe) will get the same turnout. If he tries another basement campaign it will not be great for him. as the incumbent he will "Own" whatever issues are around than too also people forget & who knows if they will be as fired up to vote against Trump?
Question, If the US becomes unhospitable for Orthodox Jewery (As I am ever more worried about) is Australia a realistic next stop for the diaspora?
I think I was more assuming that Trumps ceiling is significantly lower and harder than basically any other candidate. His negatives are actually kinda unbelievable.
Re: Australia, I’m not super stressed about the USA becoming inhospitable in the near future, at least any more than it might get for other people. If it does I suppose all bets are off given the USA’s global leadership role but for the moment Australia is pretty good
Late to the "party" here (work, family obligations...) but happy to see you are taking questions. You have some decision making power on who writes/gets hired at the Bulwark. Have you considered having some economists as regulars and or staff at the Bulwark? As a trained economist and business reporter for a brief period in my life, I miss in-depth off the beaten path but not conspiracy crazy economic writing. In his (free version) newsletter Mathew Yglesias recommended a economics newsletter that was exactly what I say (can't remember by who, sorry I read during my train commute and I don't always finish anything): thoughtful, mind challenging and not crazy conspiracy (lots of that in the economics world).
Late to the "party" here (work, family obligations...) but happy to see you are taking questions. You have some decision making power on who writes/gets hired at the Bulwark. Have you considered having some economists as regulars and or staff at the Bulwark? As a trained economist and business reporter for a brief period in my life, I miss in-depth off the beaten path but not conspiracy crazy economic writing. In his (free version) newsletter Mathew Yglesias recommended a economics newsletter that was exactly what I say (can't remember by who, sorry I read during my train commute and I don't always finish anything): thoughtful, mind challenging and not crazy conspiracy (lots of that in the economics world).
Yes but mostly from older fans, the newer analytics driven people just see his numbers and not the whole package. He and pitchers of his era pitched complete games and against guys who didn’t like to strike out. I was lucky to have gotten the chance to see him a couple times when he first joined the Houston. We got there early just to watch him warm up. It was sound of the ball hitting the catchers mit getting increasingly louder as he picked up velocity that I will never forget or have heard again.
My husband is convinced that the J6 Committee is an enormous waste of time that will change exactly zero minds (re: the Mueller investigation). He says that everyone already knows what happened and thinks it only serves as a distraction from the much bigger and pressing problem - the current push by Rs to steal elections in the state legislatures. I agree that Dems don’t seem to be alarmed enough about the possibility (likelihood?) of state legislatures stealing elections, but my sense of justice demands that the J6 Committee continue its work. My husband is convinced the Dems aren’t able to effectively do both. Your thoughts?
Why can Republicans Benghazi the shite out of Hillary Clinton but Democrats can’t return the favor with the J6 commission? Just hammer them with it day in and day out. Year one has already proven that Biden doesn’t get rewarded by trying to be bipartisan, or trying to stay above it, or trying to do things that are supposedly popular.
Your husband assumes that Dems can effectively do *either*.
There should be no problem in running a select committee AND pressing forward on legislation. These are totally separate tracks and effort on one has nothing to do with effort on the other.
Also: There are reasons to do the J6 investigation totally independent of what it *get* Democrats. It's important to have as detailed a record as possible of what happened.
As a time or place or people finally and irrevocably pass away, perhaps the highest remaining duty of a citizen is to bear witness. Only if someone collects and saves the pieces of the tale can there be a history from which a future can learn. Although it almost never does -- learn from history -- and even when it learns, it too soon forgets.
Please please please - I've asked everywhere else without joy - what is the outro music on The Secret Podcast on JVL/Sarah NON Friday pods (with apologies to Rebecca)?
Thanks for replying! I know its clip art but I had found the one for The Next Level intro (Pillars of Strength by Eddie Pradelles & Julian Vonard on Explosive Guitar Promos 2! If anyone was interested) - Just couldn't find this one - thought it would make a nice alarm call/jogging track - Universal music site right?
About that RNC document...that the RNC would put this out is not surprising at all. As with all things involved in Trumpism, there is no bottom. One simply doesn't exist. But the line that got my attention is the one stating that the J6 insurrectionists were "ordinary citizens" being persecuted for having been "engaged in legitimate political discourse." I'm a little late to the party here, so if you've already addressed this, apologies. But do you think that the blackhearts who wrote this really believe it, that they truly think violence is simply a Clausewitzian politics by other means and is therefore a legitimate political act? Or is this just one more attempt at simply whitewashing a dark and dangerous act that in the end did not succeed?
Your rules stated that if you answered a question, you would then ask a question, and honor would require an answer. If by chance that turns out to be the case here, please honor my request not to ask me about this. Anything else, ok. While we are all grown-ups here at The B, I fear any response from me on this particular subject at the moment would be inappropriate in even the most adult company, regardless of what you think the motivation behind this is.
I thought your analogizing Facebook and ddt was amazing so I have social media question. TicTok is not available in China. I'm told that the videos are very addictive in this format. Could this be a "long-game weapon" designed to dumb down non Chinese kids by destroying their ability to concentrate for more than 90 seconds?
Can you explain? I looked at a tic toc clip once and can not for the life of me imagine why anyone would want to make or watch it. The world is not even insane.
Much more likely that in its original form it was meant to be a weapon to push propoganda. But now, in it's semi-sold form, its more likely just a giant, ongoing data breach.
My view is that anyone who allows that app on their phone is inviting the PRC into their lives.
What worries me must is the kids I see with 90 seconds attention spans. How are they going to be productive adults? And TicTok is certainly a contributing factor.
Did the RNC members assume this was something no one would make a big deal of, like most random party assertions, or have they completely lost the thread and don’t understand why this is insane?!
I’m curious about The Bulwark’s future aspirations. Really really love what you all do. Very honest and don’t cater to a specific viewpoint/readership. Myself, and I’m sure more than a few others, have found a home here. Definitely worried as the Bulwark expands everyone will start gravitating towards what gets more clicks. I’m already hearing a lot of comments in that vain. I LOVE the foreign policy deep dives. Generally takes me a week to get time to read them, but I do! What’s your vision on what the Bulwark looks like in 5yrs? Or heck… even just next year!
Well, our incentives are aligned so that clicks are basically useless. So I don't think there's much danger on that front.
My general idea is that I want The Bulwark to be like the golden era of the New Republic, where you have a bunch of smart people who are great writers hashing things out in public together.
Only, with the added degree of difficulty of having democracy teetering in the background.
I had a question which I did not ask and hesitate to dump on you --
Fascinating you mention TNR. TNR certainly isn't what is was when I was young. I subscribed from the mid sixties for a long time but let it lapse some time after Stanley Kauffman stopped writing film pieces at the back of the magazine. But the rest of it had gone off into ??? long since. I'm reading it again although it seems to me trapped in a self-licking delusional progressivism about as suited to the urgency of our day as anabaptist pacifism would be in Poland in 1939.
The Bulwark is about as close as anything similar today to the good old TNR I'm aware of. Is the Bulwark logo an intentional homage to the original TNR logo?
Hi there JVL. Happy to be Bulwark+ member and never miss a TNB.
A few largely unrelated points/questions, in no particular order:
1. Kudos to the Bulwark for recruiting Will. Nice to have him join the team and bring his perspective. In similar fashion, I still think there could be a great synergy if the Bulwark Team and The Dispatch Team could combine forces, but perhaps that's as likely as the NYT and WaPo merging.
2. With respect specifically to TNB, and as much I enjoy Tim and value his input, he tends to ramble too long, asking questions and then not giving the person to whom the question was addressed, time to answer it. The show (and Tim) could be more effective if he were more succinct and exhibited the level of discipline shown in particular by you and Ben.
3. You have written frequently about the need and power of individual citizens getting more active in local politics (City Councils, School Boards, State Representatives, etc), as well as helping register voters, driving people to the polls, etc. I'm with you on that. But....
4. How do we combat the misinformation out there on FaceBook, Fox News etc.? Is there a remedy for broad ignorance and intolerance? Or is our country going to continue to circle the drain due to Trumpism and the electorate that enables this self-destructive madness?
5. Once the Jan 6 Commission finishes its work and the revelations are fully disclosed, do yo think there is any realistic chance that the few sane GOP Reps/Senators (e.g., Romney, Sasse) will stand with the truth and take appropriate action?
6 What is your bet that an meaningfully amended the Electoral Count Act can get passed this year?
Dear JVL, if you only had 3k to spend, what kind of watch would you buy for your manly partner?
Jar Jar Binks was originally meant to be the villain of The Phantom Menace but George Lucas chickened out. Do you believe that to be (a) true or (b) really, really true?
Darth Jar Jar is something only nerds believe in. Lucas thought he was making the new Teddy Ruxpin.
Sorry, late to the party here. I’m in Australia so I only see posts late and an an Orthodox Jew so I don’t see them until Sunday. My question is about political crystal ball gazing. Everyone is convinced (justifiably) hat Trump is likely to be the next republican nominee. They further assume he (or another republican) is likely to get a similar proportion of votes to 2020, or more, I.e that 2020 was his floor. I’m not sure why this is the case. 30% of republicans who believe the last election was legitimate. If even 3% of those (1% of the total) decide not to vote for trump next time it’s all over unless he can find new votes from somewhere else. It seems unlikely that he’ll manage this given how high turnout the last election was and given that he’s not really trying to get new votes. Why shouldn’t we think that next time Trump will likely lose by a landslide, as an analytical matter. I’m not saying this to be complacent. Rather, I’m asking why the doom casting is all so certain.
That is one possible outcome. Another is that he'd lose another close election. Or that he wins a close election.
The rural party starts out being spotted something close to 5 pts. in the popular vote, so all he has to do is lose by -3 in order to have a very good chance of winning.
Also: I would be hesitant to draw lessons in turnout from 2020. No idea what procedures for voting will be like in most of the country come 11/24.
This also assumes that the D candidate (Probably Joe) will get the same turnout. If he tries another basement campaign it will not be great for him. as the incumbent he will "Own" whatever issues are around than too also people forget & who knows if they will be as fired up to vote against Trump?
Question, If the US becomes unhospitable for Orthodox Jewery (As I am ever more worried about) is Australia a realistic next stop for the diaspora?
I think I was more assuming that Trumps ceiling is significantly lower and harder than basically any other candidate. His negatives are actually kinda unbelievable.
Re: Australia, I’m not super stressed about the USA becoming inhospitable in the near future, at least any more than it might get for other people. If it does I suppose all bets are off given the USA’s global leadership role but for the moment Australia is pretty good
Any chance of an Aimee Mann interview on The JVL Show?
Only in my dreams. But she retweeted me once.
There's a JVL Show?
Late to the "party" here (work, family obligations...) but happy to see you are taking questions. You have some decision making power on who writes/gets hired at the Bulwark. Have you considered having some economists as regulars and or staff at the Bulwark? As a trained economist and business reporter for a brief period in my life, I miss in-depth off the beaten path but not conspiracy crazy economic writing. In his (free version) newsletter Mathew Yglesias recommended a economics newsletter that was exactly what I say (can't remember by who, sorry I read during my train commute and I don't always finish anything): thoughtful, mind challenging and not crazy conspiracy (lots of that in the economics world).
I don't know that there's enough comparitive advantage in us bringing an economist in-house.
Does Charles Booker have a chance in hell against Rand Paul?
Probably not.
😢😭😩
He would energize the base.
If nothing else, it’s a good test of the “Energize the base” theory.
Late to the "party" here (work, family obligations...) but happy to see you are taking questions. You have some decision making power on who writes/gets hired at the Bulwark. Have you considered having some economists as regulars and or staff at the Bulwark? As a trained economist and business reporter for a brief period in my life, I miss in-depth off the beaten path but not conspiracy crazy economic writing. In his (free version) newsletter Mathew Yglesias recommended a economics newsletter that was exactly what I say (can't remember by who, sorry I read during my train commute and I don't always finish anything): thoughtful, mind challenging and not crazy conspiracy (lots of that in the economics world).
A little late to the party but why doesn't Nolan Ryan get more credit? You are not an Astros fan but he played pre-Trashcangate.
Isn't he regarded as one of the all-time greats? I've never heard anyone talk about Ryan in anything by tones of awe.
Yes but mostly from older fans, the newer analytics driven people just see his numbers and not the whole package. He and pitchers of his era pitched complete games and against guys who didn’t like to strike out. I was lucky to have gotten the chance to see him a couple times when he first joined the Houston. We got there early just to watch him warm up. It was sound of the ball hitting the catchers mit getting increasingly louder as he picked up velocity that I will never forget or have heard again.
Face Punch; Priceless
My husband is convinced that the J6 Committee is an enormous waste of time that will change exactly zero minds (re: the Mueller investigation). He says that everyone already knows what happened and thinks it only serves as a distraction from the much bigger and pressing problem - the current push by Rs to steal elections in the state legislatures. I agree that Dems don’t seem to be alarmed enough about the possibility (likelihood?) of state legislatures stealing elections, but my sense of justice demands that the J6 Committee continue its work. My husband is convinced the Dems aren’t able to effectively do both. Your thoughts?
Why can Republicans Benghazi the shite out of Hillary Clinton but Democrats can’t return the favor with the J6 commission? Just hammer them with it day in and day out. Year one has already proven that Biden doesn’t get rewarded by trying to be bipartisan, or trying to stay above it, or trying to do things that are supposedly popular.
Your husband assumes that Dems can effectively do *either*.
There should be no problem in running a select committee AND pressing forward on legislation. These are totally separate tracks and effort on one has nothing to do with effort on the other.
Also: There are reasons to do the J6 investigation totally independent of what it *get* Democrats. It's important to have as detailed a record as possible of what happened.
As a time or place or people finally and irrevocably pass away, perhaps the highest remaining duty of a citizen is to bear witness. Only if someone collects and saves the pieces of the tale can there be a history from which a future can learn. Although it almost never does -- learn from history -- and even when it learns, it too soon forgets.
Good morning my love! How is Inbox Zero going for you? 😂
We don't talk about Bruno.
Maybe try “Let it Go”
Two days late, but I appreciate you throwing some salt on this wound. Bravo, Mrs. Last. *insert golf claps*
Please please please - I've asked everywhere else without joy - what is the outro music on The Secret Podcast on JVL/Sarah NON Friday pods (with apologies to Rebecca)?
It's just a piece of aural clip art. Same as the intro. You buy the license for like $7.
Thanks for replying! I know its clip art but I had found the one for The Next Level intro (Pillars of Strength by Eddie Pradelles & Julian Vonard on Explosive Guitar Promos 2! If anyone was interested) - Just couldn't find this one - thought it would make a nice alarm call/jogging track - Universal music site right?
About that RNC document...that the RNC would put this out is not surprising at all. As with all things involved in Trumpism, there is no bottom. One simply doesn't exist. But the line that got my attention is the one stating that the J6 insurrectionists were "ordinary citizens" being persecuted for having been "engaged in legitimate political discourse." I'm a little late to the party here, so if you've already addressed this, apologies. But do you think that the blackhearts who wrote this really believe it, that they truly think violence is simply a Clausewitzian politics by other means and is therefore a legitimate political act? Or is this just one more attempt at simply whitewashing a dark and dangerous act that in the end did not succeed?
Your rules stated that if you answered a question, you would then ask a question, and honor would require an answer. If by chance that turns out to be the case here, please honor my request not to ask me about this. Anything else, ok. While we are all grown-ups here at The B, I fear any response from me on this particular subject at the moment would be inappropriate in even the most adult company, regardless of what you think the motivation behind this is.
I thought your analogizing Facebook and ddt was amazing so I have social media question. TicTok is not available in China. I'm told that the videos are very addictive in this format. Could this be a "long-game weapon" designed to dumb down non Chinese kids by destroying their ability to concentrate for more than 90 seconds?
Can you explain? I looked at a tic toc clip once and can not for the life of me imagine why anyone would want to make or watch it. The world is not even insane.
Much more likely that in its original form it was meant to be a weapon to push propoganda. But now, in it's semi-sold form, its more likely just a giant, ongoing data breach.
My view is that anyone who allows that app on their phone is inviting the PRC into their lives.
What worries me must is the kids I see with 90 seconds attention spans. How are they going to be productive adults? And TicTok is certainly a contributing factor.
Did the RNC members assume this was something no one would make a big deal of, like most random party assertions, or have they completely lost the thread and don’t understand why this is insane?!
I suspect that they think that their voters will love it and the people who are not their voters will be angry, but then will forget.
Net-net, it's probably a plus for them.
Option #3 they know that this is what the majority of their voters want to see
I’m curious about The Bulwark’s future aspirations. Really really love what you all do. Very honest and don’t cater to a specific viewpoint/readership. Myself, and I’m sure more than a few others, have found a home here. Definitely worried as the Bulwark expands everyone will start gravitating towards what gets more clicks. I’m already hearing a lot of comments in that vain. I LOVE the foreign policy deep dives. Generally takes me a week to get time to read them, but I do! What’s your vision on what the Bulwark looks like in 5yrs? Or heck… even just next year!
Well, our incentives are aligned so that clicks are basically useless. So I don't think there's much danger on that front.
My general idea is that I want The Bulwark to be like the golden era of the New Republic, where you have a bunch of smart people who are great writers hashing things out in public together.
Only, with the added degree of difficulty of having democracy teetering in the background.
No pressure.
I had a question which I did not ask and hesitate to dump on you --
Fascinating you mention TNR. TNR certainly isn't what is was when I was young. I subscribed from the mid sixties for a long time but let it lapse some time after Stanley Kauffman stopped writing film pieces at the back of the magazine. But the rest of it had gone off into ??? long since. I'm reading it again although it seems to me trapped in a self-licking delusional progressivism about as suited to the urgency of our day as anabaptist pacifism would be in Poland in 1939.
The Bulwark is about as close as anything similar today to the good old TNR I'm aware of. Is the Bulwark logo an intentional homage to the original TNR logo?
Hi there JVL. Happy to be Bulwark+ member and never miss a TNB.
A few largely unrelated points/questions, in no particular order:
1. Kudos to the Bulwark for recruiting Will. Nice to have him join the team and bring his perspective. In similar fashion, I still think there could be a great synergy if the Bulwark Team and The Dispatch Team could combine forces, but perhaps that's as likely as the NYT and WaPo merging.
2. With respect specifically to TNB, and as much I enjoy Tim and value his input, he tends to ramble too long, asking questions and then not giving the person to whom the question was addressed, time to answer it. The show (and Tim) could be more effective if he were more succinct and exhibited the level of discipline shown in particular by you and Ben.
3. You have written frequently about the need and power of individual citizens getting more active in local politics (City Councils, School Boards, State Representatives, etc), as well as helping register voters, driving people to the polls, etc. I'm with you on that. But....
4. How do we combat the misinformation out there on FaceBook, Fox News etc.? Is there a remedy for broad ignorance and intolerance? Or is our country going to continue to circle the drain due to Trumpism and the electorate that enables this self-destructive madness?
5. Once the Jan 6 Commission finishes its work and the revelations are fully disclosed, do yo think there is any realistic chance that the few sane GOP Reps/Senators (e.g., Romney, Sasse) will stand with the truth and take appropriate action?
6 What is your bet that an meaningfully amended the Electoral Count Act can get passed this year?
I'll only answer one of these: #6: I would be very surprised.
JVL -- Thanks. Regrettably, sad but realistic.