No. Obama won pop vote in 2008 52.9 to 45.7%. Biden was 4.5% over trump. Sure partisanship makes a 1972 or 1984 landslide highly unlikely if not impossible, and lends an electoral college advantage to the GOP, but does not explain why Trump's ass has not been handed to him.
So no Clinton over dole numbers (and Ross perot was fairly popula…
No. Obama won pop vote in 2008 52.9 to 45.7%. Biden was 4.5% over trump. Sure partisanship makes a 1972 or 1984 landslide highly unlikely if not impossible, and lends an electoral college advantage to the GOP, but does not explain why Trump's ass has not been handed to him.
So no Clinton over dole numbers (and Ross perot was fairly popular for a 3rd party candidate btw). But no way the Democrat should be behind Trump. Now they may not once the race settles. But you won't be outside the margin of error. Which is quite possible with a generational talent. The Democrats promoted the presumed successor with the sorry fatalism they're known for.
They also trust opinion polling to get them elected in ways that ought to be considered dubious. It's not what voters say but what they do. For example, if they say climate change is a huge concern, you cant then talk about banning fossil fuel consumption etc. not in the Midwest where people still prefer American cars for crying out loud.
Kevin this isn’t true. Biden got 51% not 46%. Where are you getting that number?
First let’s stipulate a few things:
1. Obama ran in the best year ever (a financial crisis 2 months before the election after 8 years of war under the opposition party…Clinton would have crushed too but probably not as well as Obama).
2. Obama was a generational politician. Biden is not.
3. The media environment was drastically different in 2008 than 2020 or 2024 (social media was barely anything in 2008. I know I was an early investor in twitter).
First Biden got 51% of the vote in 2020 and Obama got 53% in 2008. A 2 point margin. Let’s get our facts straight here.
You are comparing Clinton’s reelection to Biden unseating an incumbent. Very very different. You would need to compare Clinton 1992 to Biden 2020 not his reelection bid in 1996.
I’m not sure if you noticed but look at almost every single election around the world. They are ALL getting crushed. Literally all of them. Doesn’t matter if they are left, center left, center, right, ultra right or even semi-authoritarian (Israel, Hungary, India, and turkey). It doesn’t matter if they are old or young or male or female. Incumbents and incumbent parties are just losing everywhere.
It’s easy to say “there has to be someone out there that everyone likes” but there is no evidence in our politics that this is true. Literally every president starts out at the highest favorability rate the day they take the oath. Then it falls until it’s at its lowest level when they leave office (true for Obama too).
I agree, Barack Obama would be on his 4th term by now if not for that darn 22nd Amendment.
But, there is no Barack Obama out there, and no, neither Whitmer or Shapiro are Obama. Maybe Whitmer would be running a point or two better right now. Maybe.
No way. Obama would not be on his 4th term. Not possible in our politics. He probably wins in 2016 but not 2020. Polarization has been skyrocketing during and since Obama.
I love whitmer. She is far too left for the presidential stage.
Shapiro is a big talent. Way way better than Harris. natural sounding and relatable. Moderate. From a must win swing state. He's the best talent since Obama. And is comparably gifted. Clinton and Obama were not highly touted talents who gradually worked their way up. That is a bunch of nonsense. Think big to win.
No. Obama won pop vote in 2008 52.9 to 45.7%. Biden was 4.5% over trump. Sure partisanship makes a 1972 or 1984 landslide highly unlikely if not impossible, and lends an electoral college advantage to the GOP, but does not explain why Trump's ass has not been handed to him.
So no Clinton over dole numbers (and Ross perot was fairly popular for a 3rd party candidate btw). But no way the Democrat should be behind Trump. Now they may not once the race settles. But you won't be outside the margin of error. Which is quite possible with a generational talent. The Democrats promoted the presumed successor with the sorry fatalism they're known for.
They also trust opinion polling to get them elected in ways that ought to be considered dubious. It's not what voters say but what they do. For example, if they say climate change is a huge concern, you cant then talk about banning fossil fuel consumption etc. not in the Midwest where people still prefer American cars for crying out loud.
Kevin this isn’t true. Biden got 51% not 46%. Where are you getting that number?
First let’s stipulate a few things:
1. Obama ran in the best year ever (a financial crisis 2 months before the election after 8 years of war under the opposition party…Clinton would have crushed too but probably not as well as Obama).
2. Obama was a generational politician. Biden is not.
3. The media environment was drastically different in 2008 than 2020 or 2024 (social media was barely anything in 2008. I know I was an early investor in twitter).
First Biden got 51% of the vote in 2020 and Obama got 53% in 2008. A 2 point margin. Let’s get our facts straight here.
You are comparing Clinton’s reelection to Biden unseating an incumbent. Very very different. You would need to compare Clinton 1992 to Biden 2020 not his reelection bid in 1996.
I’m not sure if you noticed but look at almost every single election around the world. They are ALL getting crushed. Literally all of them. Doesn’t matter if they are left, center left, center, right, ultra right or even semi-authoritarian (Israel, Hungary, India, and turkey). It doesn’t matter if they are old or young or male or female. Incumbents and incumbent parties are just losing everywhere.
It’s easy to say “there has to be someone out there that everyone likes” but there is no evidence in our politics that this is true. Literally every president starts out at the highest favorability rate the day they take the oath. Then it falls until it’s at its lowest level when they leave office (true for Obama too).
I agree, Barack Obama would be on his 4th term by now if not for that darn 22nd Amendment.
But, there is no Barack Obama out there, and no, neither Whitmer or Shapiro are Obama. Maybe Whitmer would be running a point or two better right now. Maybe.
No way. Obama would not be on his 4th term. Not possible in our politics. He probably wins in 2016 but not 2020. Polarization has been skyrocketing during and since Obama.
I love whitmer. She is far too left for the presidential stage.
Shapiro is a big talent. Way way better than Harris. natural sounding and relatable. Moderate. From a must win swing state. He's the best talent since Obama. And is comparably gifted. Clinton and Obama were not highly touted talents who gradually worked their way up. That is a bunch of nonsense. Think big to win.