Yep, now pardoning folks who ran dark web drug smuggling websites as a thank you to the fellow's mom, тАЬin honor of her and the Libertarian Movement, which supported me so stronglyтАЭ.
Travis, as you know, this guy was not a "dealer", but a tech mogul and business pers...oops! businessman. His absolutely fantastic, really one of the best the world has ever seen, online market was hijacked by unscrupulous drug dealers and, this innocent, yet brilliant man, one of the smartest men you'll ever meet, was sent to prison by a corrupt system.
How about Elon MuskтАЩs violent Nazi salute from the stage? The only U.S. mainstream media to cover it was The Atlantic. Tons of foreign media had headlines about it along with some of our independent media. Our institutions are already crumbling as fast as they can. How long before societal collapse?
Look, these guys are awful, and I have now doubt they're up to no good; but is also possible, and maybe even probable, that this was nothing other than an awkward wave. In a still photo, you can frame it how you like (totally meme worthy, for sure).
This is exactly the kind of thing that's gotten us to this point, it's alienating, and for dipshits like Musk, who likes to antagonize people, all it will do is produce more of the same.
Society ain't going to collapse from this, nor from climate change, nor from wealth inequality. Society ain't going to collapse, it's just going to continue to decline. The bottom will be so normalized by the time we hit it--which won't be in my lifetime--that most Americans won't even care once we're there. That's what decline is: a normalization of decline that self-sustains it.
I'm a pretty cynical person but I buy into the Fourth Turning theory/pattern. I think it's going to be hell for 6 years then I think the rising generation will have had enough of this shit and force changes for the better - no idea what that will look like.
Agree the society will not collapse from climate change. But certain areas, like the southeastern US, will become inhospitable for all but the wealthy who can rebuild every time a flood or hurricane destroys their home and pay for the excessive amount of electricity they will need during sustained, high levels of heat.
However, the society will eventually collapse as our human habitat becomes inhabitable as the eco-systems we depend on decline. At that point, the wealthy will depart the Earth on spaceships provided by Musk and Bezos.
What really hurt those trying to warn about climate change is the deliberate effort to make every weather event about climate change. A more thoughtful, more balanced approach would have given it more credibility
"At that point, the wealthy will depart the Earth on spaceships provided by Musk and Bezos."
No, they won't, because they have nowhere else to go. Both the moon and Mars are so hostile to life that they make Antarctica and the Mariana Trench seem peaceful, tropical paradises.
Hmm, yes, another scam on the taxpayers! Somebody at the Bulwark should do a deep dive on what the taxpayers are paying for with subsidies - is that what they are? - to oligarchs. Or somebody at The Atlantic.
It probably will, but going to Mars isn't going to save us. We simply don't have the level of technology required to move enough people to Mars AND make the place safely habitable (and we may never have that level of technology). Any Mars colony would ultimately be dependent on support from Earth; if Earth goes down, so would the Mars colony.
Agree it's not likely that Musk/Bezos can create the technology to make anywhere other than Earth habitable for all of humanity. But they might be able to do so for a few humans? They have no interest is saving humanity. Their spaceships will be only for those who can pay the fare.
However, I must make clear - the earth will not "go down". It has survived for billions of years. Whatever calamities it faced, it regenerated. That is nature in a nutshell. It regenerates. The only decline will be whether it is habitable for humans. Forget "save the earth". "Save our human habitat!"
'Agree it's not likely that Musk/Bezos can create the technology to make anywhere other than Earth habitable for all of humanity. But they might be able to do so for a few humans? They have no interest is saving humanity. Their spaceships will be only for those who can pay the fare."
Trust me on this: there is ZERO possibility of them being able to do that. Going to Mars isn't like sailing off to an unknown continent here on Earth: Mars has no ozone layer or magnetic field, which means one solar flare can fry anyone living above ground (as well as anyone who's on a spaceship during the 7-month time it takes to get to Mars). It has no significant oxygen in its very thin atmosphere, and the soil (which is actually just pulverized rock) lacks nutrients needed for plant life and also contains high levels of perchlorates, which are toxic to humans. So when these settlers arrive, they somehow have to build an underground habitat (to protect themselves from the dangerous radiation) and find a way to create enough potable water, breathable air, and actual soil to eventually grow crops. And until they can grow their own food, they have to depend on supplies coming from Earth, which will only be sent every 2 years (because it takes way too much fuel to send those supply rockets except when Earth and Mars are aligned just right, and that only happens every two years). And everything mechanical they need (think parts to repair equipment, like the oxygen generator) will also have to come from Earth (because it takes a LOT of people to build all the factories needed to create those items).
At best, we might be able to send a short-term expedition to Mars, consisting of a few people who'd be willing to risk their lives to go there and stay for two years and then return. Long-term settlement is WAY harder, and simply isn't possible right now. Right now we'd struggle to even build a Moon base, and the Moon is only a 4-day trip from Earth!
As I said, the "Colonize Mars ASAP!' people have bene reading way too much science fiction, and studying too little actual science and engineering.
"However, I must make clear - the earth will not "go down". It has survived for billions of years. Whatever calamities it faced, it regenerated. That is nature in a nutshell. It regenerates. The only decline will be whether it is habitable for humans. Forget "save the earth". "Save our human habitat!""
And that is the truth. Earth doesn't need us, and will get along fine without us, but we need the Earth. it's time we wake up and start taking better care of our home!
This! These people have more money than they could spend in many lifetimes. It is all ego, the idea that they can say they propelled humans to Mars. They'll be in the history books.
Best case, and I do mean BEST CASE, we can get a small outpost there and, *maybe* start extracting some minerals in the next 50 to 100 years?
Terraforming? That's on the scale of millions of years and, even if super fantastical technological solutions were available (you know...magic), hundreds of thousands...so...even with magic, it's no time soon.
Frankly, teleportation and warp drive are likely to happen sooner than Mars will be a viable place to live.
Yes, our democratic society will become such a distant memory (if remembered at all) it will become myth. To quote Galadriel, тАЬAnd some things that should not have been forgotten were lost. History became legend. Legend became myth..."
I want to believe your scenario. But things are happening at light speed already. тАЬGradualтАЭ doesnтАЩt fit what IтАЩm feeling from what IтАЩm seeing. Climate change is going to start a cascade of events already underway.
I predict California will become a flashpoint. Trump will refuse federal funding, then Newsom will promote cessation of paying federal taxes, then . . . a showdown.
I think the federal govt needs CAтАЩs tax revenue more then CA needs the US. ThereтАЩs a lot of money here. And $ is everything in TrumpтАЩs America, yes?
Oh I'm not saying it's going to be gradual. Things like climate change and wealth inequality are going to happen faster than the worst predictions expect them to, but it will not lead to "collapse." The country doesn't "collapse" because it gets hit with increasing levels of natural disasters or because the rich have all the money. "Collapse" is what happened to the Mayans. *Decline* is what happened to the Romans. We're going to end up like the Romans, not the Mayans.
According to geographer Jared Diamond, five factors contribute to collapse: climate change, hostile neighbors, collapse of essential trading partners, environmental problems, and the society's response to the foregoing four factors.
Oh I've read his books--including Collapse and GG&S--and I agree with the bulk of his observations. That said, dealing with forest fires and hurricanes is not the same as what he's talking about with respect to climate change collapsing civilizations.
In older civilizations there was not a globalized economy the way there is today, thus, when climate change killed crops and older civilizations lost trade partners for a variety of reasons, they were often fucked. Modern times are *very* different when it comes to 1st world countries like the US. Just look at how the sanctions regime imposed on countries like Russia has *not* led to their collapse when it comes to losing trade partners. The same could be said of climate change. Those things will affect 3rd world countries much more than they will affect 1st world countries who have the wealth to endure. The worst we will see is wrecked neighborhoods that will simply be rebuilt and higher migration levels whenever other countries have serious issues related to climate (Europe gets the bulk of the N African/Near East migrants and we get the S/C American ones).
Yes, they were. Look up the Gracchi Brothers, Marius, and Sulla. There was about a century of violent unrest before the Roman Republic fully transitioned into an Empire. The rise of first Julius Caesar and then Augustus Caesar marked the end of the transition, not the beginning.
Edited to add: For those of you who don't know much about the politics at the end of the Roman Republic, check out "The Storm Before the Storm: The Beginning of the End of the Roman Republic" by Mike Duncan (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01N9ZJXZJ/ref=kinw_myk_ro_title) It will send chills up your spine.
I donтАЩt think it will collapse in the next 10 years but decline is a choice. A choice made by Americans who were born into freedom and now spit on freedom. Immigrants who have the fortune to acquire citizenship and now look down on migrants. It was not an easy path for my parents to move us here. It took eight years under family reunification visa. But I count my blessing everyday and will tell anyone willing to listen that no one wants to be an illegal alien if they have the chance to do it legally.
There are only a few ways to immigrate to the US legally, including H1B visas, large investments and family reunification. These are not going to be available for most people. I believe in very strong border security but empathize with migrants who brave the dangers of trekking hundred of miles into strange country. Their choices must not have been good.
You (and others) have alluded to it before and it bears repeating - while this guy is a very visible sign of decline , the actual decline started decades ago (before Reagan). Over the years both of our major parties have participated in it - after all the parties are made of people - and тАЬweтАЭ have demanded far too little out of our elected officials in terms of character, ideas, and results.
Agreed. We are reaping what was sewed many decades ago, by our parents and grand parents (etc., etc). It is a sort of cultural epigenetic reaction to the trauma of past decisions.
IтАЩm sure youтАЩre right but I canтАЩt see anything worse than pardoning these J6 people. IтАЩm sure he will at some point find ways to pardon some murderers or cause more violence like January 6th. But releasing these people stains American history in ways itтАЩs hard to fathom.
Why do you think Biden gave automatic pardons for his family and relatives. Because Trump is vindictive and happily force Biden's family to spent 10s of thousands dollars defending themselves against trumped up charges.
Yes. That's also why he pardoned the January 6 investigative committee, Dr. Fauci, General Milley, and so many others (even those people didn't commit any crimes). But now Trump's in charge, and anyone who tries to stand up to him could easily find themselves not only out of a job but facing a kangaroo court. The risk is very real.
There's a lot of USCP & DC MPD police officers waking up today feeling like Afghan veterans. Welcome to the club of let down public servants who put their bodies on the line for basically nothing fellas. Hope they drink American if they're going to turn to alcoholism after this because the price of Modelos and Coronas is about to go up.
What I would like the current police officers around the country stop supporting Trump. My friend, a fireman and in the Union for firefighters, said most the firefighters and police are Trump supporters. I would like to see that releasing the rioters would open the eyes the public servants and they would see Trump has no respect for them.
Fond memories of waking up late July 2019 in Afghanistan after another night of shelling mortars all-around just to see the Stars & Stripes headline of how Trump declared that he would end the war by тАЬwiping Afghanistan off the face of the Earth,тАЭ which prompted the coalition Afghani government, NATO allies in country, and US diplomats to request a clarification of if he meant he would nuke the country with us on the ground.
The worst is yet to come folks. We're not even at the parts where Trump is dealing with any kind of crisis yet.
Yep, now pardoning folks who ran dark web drug smuggling websites as a thank you to the fellow's mom, тАЬin honor of her and the Libertarian Movement, which supported me so stronglyтАЭ.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/21/ross-ulbricht-silk-road-trump-pardon
Yeah, so let's see some more equivocation about Biden pardoning Hunter sort of justifying this action.
Weird, because I was told by Trump that he intended to put dealers on death row, not release them from prison. What a strange reversal of position.
Travis, as you know, this guy was not a "dealer", but a tech mogul and business pers...oops! businessman. His absolutely fantastic, really one of the best the world has ever seen, online market was hijacked by unscrupulous drug dealers and, this innocent, yet brilliant man, one of the smartest men you'll ever meet, was sent to prison by a corrupt system.
How about Elon MuskтАЩs violent Nazi salute from the stage? The only U.S. mainstream media to cover it was The Atlantic. Tons of foreign media had headlines about it along with some of our independent media. Our institutions are already crumbling as fast as they can. How long before societal collapse?
Look, these guys are awful, and I have now doubt they're up to no good; but is also possible, and maybe even probable, that this was nothing other than an awkward wave. In a still photo, you can frame it how you like (totally meme worthy, for sure).
This is exactly the kind of thing that's gotten us to this point, it's alienating, and for dipshits like Musk, who likes to antagonize people, all it will do is produce more of the same.
Society ain't going to collapse from this, nor from climate change, nor from wealth inequality. Society ain't going to collapse, it's just going to continue to decline. The bottom will be so normalized by the time we hit it--which won't be in my lifetime--that most Americans won't even care once we're there. That's what decline is: a normalization of decline that self-sustains it.
I'm a pretty cynical person but I buy into the Fourth Turning theory/pattern. I think it's going to be hell for 6 years then I think the rising generation will have had enough of this shit and force changes for the better - no idea what that will look like.
They said this about liberals when the Bush admin was fucking up and Obama got nominated. Now we're here.
I'm more of a "history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme" kind of guy myself. We're quickly on our way to becoming the New Romans.
Agree the society will not collapse from climate change. But certain areas, like the southeastern US, will become inhospitable for all but the wealthy who can rebuild every time a flood or hurricane destroys their home and pay for the excessive amount of electricity they will need during sustained, high levels of heat.
However, the society will eventually collapse as our human habitat becomes inhabitable as the eco-systems we depend on decline. At that point, the wealthy will depart the Earth on spaceships provided by Musk and Bezos.
What really hurt those trying to warn about climate change is the deliberate effort to make every weather event about climate change. A more thoughtful, more balanced approach would have given it more credibility
I donтАЩt think that was climate scientists. Who are you talking about?
"At that point, the wealthy will depart the Earth on spaceships provided by Musk and Bezos."
No, they won't, because they have nowhere else to go. Both the moon and Mars are so hostile to life that they make Antarctica and the Mariana Trench seem peaceful, tropical paradises.
Then why are they building those spaceships?
He gets paid whether they work or not. Tax dollars at work.
Hmm, yes, another scam on the taxpayers! Somebody at the Bulwark should do a deep dive on what the taxpayers are paying for with subsidies - is that what they are? - to oligarchs. Or somebody at The Atlantic.
Ego, plus having read WAY too much science fiction (and forgetting about the "fiction" part).
Is it your bet is our human habitat on planet earth will not decline?
It probably will, but going to Mars isn't going to save us. We simply don't have the level of technology required to move enough people to Mars AND make the place safely habitable (and we may never have that level of technology). Any Mars colony would ultimately be dependent on support from Earth; if Earth goes down, so would the Mars colony.
Agree it's not likely that Musk/Bezos can create the technology to make anywhere other than Earth habitable for all of humanity. But they might be able to do so for a few humans? They have no interest is saving humanity. Their spaceships will be only for those who can pay the fare.
However, I must make clear - the earth will not "go down". It has survived for billions of years. Whatever calamities it faced, it regenerated. That is nature in a nutshell. It regenerates. The only decline will be whether it is habitable for humans. Forget "save the earth". "Save our human habitat!"
'Agree it's not likely that Musk/Bezos can create the technology to make anywhere other than Earth habitable for all of humanity. But they might be able to do so for a few humans? They have no interest is saving humanity. Their spaceships will be only for those who can pay the fare."
Trust me on this: there is ZERO possibility of them being able to do that. Going to Mars isn't like sailing off to an unknown continent here on Earth: Mars has no ozone layer or magnetic field, which means one solar flare can fry anyone living above ground (as well as anyone who's on a spaceship during the 7-month time it takes to get to Mars). It has no significant oxygen in its very thin atmosphere, and the soil (which is actually just pulverized rock) lacks nutrients needed for plant life and also contains high levels of perchlorates, which are toxic to humans. So when these settlers arrive, they somehow have to build an underground habitat (to protect themselves from the dangerous radiation) and find a way to create enough potable water, breathable air, and actual soil to eventually grow crops. And until they can grow their own food, they have to depend on supplies coming from Earth, which will only be sent every 2 years (because it takes way too much fuel to send those supply rockets except when Earth and Mars are aligned just right, and that only happens every two years). And everything mechanical they need (think parts to repair equipment, like the oxygen generator) will also have to come from Earth (because it takes a LOT of people to build all the factories needed to create those items).
At best, we might be able to send a short-term expedition to Mars, consisting of a few people who'd be willing to risk their lives to go there and stay for two years and then return. Long-term settlement is WAY harder, and simply isn't possible right now. Right now we'd struggle to even build a Moon base, and the Moon is only a 4-day trip from Earth!
As I said, the "Colonize Mars ASAP!' people have bene reading way too much science fiction, and studying too little actual science and engineering.
"However, I must make clear - the earth will not "go down". It has survived for billions of years. Whatever calamities it faced, it regenerated. That is nature in a nutshell. It regenerates. The only decline will be whether it is habitable for humans. Forget "save the earth". "Save our human habitat!""
And that is the truth. Earth doesn't need us, and will get along fine without us, but we need the Earth. it's time we wake up and start taking better care of our home!
This! These people have more money than they could spend in many lifetimes. It is all ego, the idea that they can say they propelled humans to Mars. They'll be in the history books.
Best case, and I do mean BEST CASE, we can get a small outpost there and, *maybe* start extracting some minerals in the next 50 to 100 years?
Terraforming? That's on the scale of millions of years and, even if super fantastical technological solutions were available (you know...magic), hundreds of thousands...so...even with magic, it's no time soon.
Frankly, teleportation and warp drive are likely to happen sooner than Mars will be a viable place to live.
Yes, our democratic society will become such a distant memory (if remembered at all) it will become myth. To quote Galadriel, тАЬAnd some things that should not have been forgotten were lost. History became legend. Legend became myth..."
Shudder. Agree.
I want to believe your scenario. But things are happening at light speed already. тАЬGradualтАЭ doesnтАЩt fit what IтАЩm feeling from what IтАЩm seeing. Climate change is going to start a cascade of events already underway.
I predict California will become a flashpoint. Trump will refuse federal funding, then Newsom will promote cessation of paying federal taxes, then . . . a showdown.
I think the federal govt needs CAтАЩs tax revenue more then CA needs the US. ThereтАЩs a lot of money here. And $ is everything in TrumpтАЩs America, yes?
Yeah, it's going to come to this, no doubt.
I would love to see Newsome and the other Blue State governors do that. Let the magat states pay their own way for once.
Oh I'm not saying it's going to be gradual. Things like climate change and wealth inequality are going to happen faster than the worst predictions expect them to, but it will not lead to "collapse." The country doesn't "collapse" because it gets hit with increasing levels of natural disasters or because the rich have all the money. "Collapse" is what happened to the Mayans. *Decline* is what happened to the Romans. We're going to end up like the Romans, not the Mayans.
According to geographer Jared Diamond, five factors contribute to collapse: climate change, hostile neighbors, collapse of essential trading partners, environmental problems, and the society's response to the foregoing four factors.
I'd say "check" to each factor.
Oh I've read his books--including Collapse and GG&S--and I agree with the bulk of his observations. That said, dealing with forest fires and hurricanes is not the same as what he's talking about with respect to climate change collapsing civilizations.
In older civilizations there was not a globalized economy the way there is today, thus, when climate change killed crops and older civilizations lost trade partners for a variety of reasons, they were often fucked. Modern times are *very* different when it comes to 1st world countries like the US. Just look at how the sanctions regime imposed on countries like Russia has *not* led to their collapse when it comes to losing trade partners. The same could be said of climate change. Those things will affect 3rd world countries much more than they will affect 1st world countries who have the wealth to endure. The worst we will see is wrecked neighborhoods that will simply be rebuilt and higher migration levels whenever other countries have serious issues related to climate (Europe gets the bulk of the N African/Near East migrants and we get the S/C American ones).
A good assessment. I just wonder if the Romans were divided into antagonistic camps, one of which was heavily armed with weapons of war.
Yes, they were. Look up the Gracchi Brothers, Marius, and Sulla. There was about a century of violent unrest before the Roman Republic fully transitioned into an Empire. The rise of first Julius Caesar and then Augustus Caesar marked the end of the transition, not the beginning.
Edited to add: For those of you who don't know much about the politics at the end of the Roman Republic, check out "The Storm Before the Storm: The Beginning of the End of the Roman Republic" by Mike Duncan (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01N9ZJXZJ/ref=kinw_myk_ro_title) It will send chills up your spine.
I'd also add Dan Carlin's Hardcore History podcast series "Death Throws of the Republic" to this list.
That whole Tribune of the Plebes thing was the first domino.
I donтАЩt think it will collapse in the next 10 years but decline is a choice. A choice made by Americans who were born into freedom and now spit on freedom. Immigrants who have the fortune to acquire citizenship and now look down on migrants. It was not an easy path for my parents to move us here. It took eight years under family reunification visa. But I count my blessing everyday and will tell anyone willing to listen that no one wants to be an illegal alien if they have the chance to do it legally.
Agree that decline is a choice.
Can you say more about the legal ways not available to those who become illegal aliens?
There are only a few ways to immigrate to the US legally, including H1B visas, large investments and family reunification. These are not going to be available for most people. I believe in very strong border security but empathize with migrants who brave the dangers of trekking hundred of miles into strange country. Their choices must not have been good.
Ok. I too believe in a high wall - and a big gate as Thomas Friedman put it. We NEED immigrants.
You (and others) have alluded to it before and it bears repeating - while this guy is a very visible sign of decline , the actual decline started decades ago (before Reagan). Over the years both of our major parties have participated in it - after all the parties are made of people - and тАЬweтАЭ have demanded far too little out of our elected officials in terms of character, ideas, and results.
Agreed. We are reaping what was sewed many decades ago, by our parents and grand parents (etc., etc). It is a sort of cultural epigenetic reaction to the trauma of past decisions.
IтАЩm sure youтАЩre right but I canтАЩt see anything worse than pardoning these J6 people. IтАЩm sure he will at some point find ways to pardon some murderers or cause more violence like January 6th. But releasing these people stains American history in ways itтАЩs hard to fathom.
I can see something worse: show trials of those whose "crimes" consist of lawfully resisting Trump's dictates.
Why do you think Biden gave automatic pardons for his family and relatives. Because Trump is vindictive and happily force Biden's family to spent 10s of thousands dollars defending themselves against trumped up charges.
Yes. That's also why he pardoned the January 6 investigative committee, Dr. Fauci, General Milley, and so many others (even those people didn't commit any crimes). But now Trump's in charge, and anyone who tries to stand up to him could easily find themselves not only out of a job but facing a kangaroo court. The risk is very real.
There's a lot of USCP & DC MPD police officers waking up today feeling like Afghan veterans. Welcome to the club of let down public servants who put their bodies on the line for basically nothing fellas. Hope they drink American if they're going to turn to alcoholism after this because the price of Modelos and Coronas is about to go up.
What I would like the current police officers around the country stop supporting Trump. My friend, a fireman and in the Union for firefighters, said most the firefighters and police are Trump supporters. I would like to see that releasing the rioters would open the eyes the public servants and they would see Trump has no respect for them.
Fond memories of waking up late July 2019 in Afghanistan after another night of shelling mortars all-around just to see the Stars & Stripes headline of how Trump declared that he would end the war by тАЬwiping Afghanistan off the face of the Earth,тАЭ which prompted the coalition Afghani government, NATO allies in country, and US diplomats to request a clarification of if he meant he would nuke the country with us on the ground.
Good times