I want to believe your scenario. But things are happening at light speed already. “Gradual” doesn’t fit what I’m feeling from what I’m seeing. Climate change is going to start a cascade of events already underway.
I predict California will become a flashpoint. Trump will refuse federal funding, then Newsom will promote cessation of paying federal taxes, then . . . a showdown.
I want to believe your scenario. But things are happening at light speed already. “Gradual” doesn’t fit what I’m feeling from what I’m seeing. Climate change is going to start a cascade of events already underway.
I predict California will become a flashpoint. Trump will refuse federal funding, then Newsom will promote cessation of paying federal taxes, then . . . a showdown.
Oh I'm not saying it's going to be gradual. Things like climate change and wealth inequality are going to happen faster than the worst predictions expect them to, but it will not lead to "collapse." The country doesn't "collapse" because it gets hit with increasing levels of natural disasters or because the rich have all the money. "Collapse" is what happened to the Mayans. *Decline* is what happened to the Romans. We're going to end up like the Romans, not the Mayans.
According to geographer Jared Diamond, five factors contribute to collapse: climate change, hostile neighbors, collapse of essential trading partners, environmental problems, and the society's response to the foregoing four factors.
Oh I've read his books--including Collapse and GG&S--and I agree with the bulk of his observations. That said, dealing with forest fires and hurricanes is not the same as what he's talking about with respect to climate change collapsing civilizations.
In older civilizations there was not a globalized economy the way there is today, thus, when climate change killed crops and older civilizations lost trade partners for a variety of reasons, they were often fucked. Modern times are *very* different when it comes to 1st world countries like the US. Just look at how the sanctions regime imposed on countries like Russia has *not* led to their collapse when it comes to losing trade partners. The same could be said of climate change. Those things will affect 3rd world countries much more than they will affect 1st world countries who have the wealth to endure. The worst we will see is wrecked neighborhoods that will simply be rebuilt and higher migration levels whenever other countries have serious issues related to climate (Europe gets the bulk of the N African/Near East migrants and we get the S/C American ones).
Yes, they were. Look up the Gracchi Brothers, Marius, and Sulla. There was about a century of violent unrest before the Roman Republic fully transitioned into an Empire. The rise of first Julius Caesar and then Augustus Caesar marked the end of the transition, not the beginning.
Edited to add: For those of you who don't know much about the politics at the end of the Roman Republic, check out "The Storm Before the Storm: The Beginning of the End of the Roman Republic" by Mike Duncan (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01N9ZJXZJ/ref=kinw_myk_ro_title) It will send chills up your spine.
I want to believe your scenario. But things are happening at light speed already. “Gradual” doesn’t fit what I’m feeling from what I’m seeing. Climate change is going to start a cascade of events already underway.
I predict California will become a flashpoint. Trump will refuse federal funding, then Newsom will promote cessation of paying federal taxes, then . . . a showdown.
I think the federal govt needs CA’s tax revenue more then CA needs the US. There’s a lot of money here. And $ is everything in Trump’s America, yes?
Yeah, it's going to come to this, no doubt.
I would love to see Newsome and the other Blue State governors do that. Let the magat states pay their own way for once.
Oh I'm not saying it's going to be gradual. Things like climate change and wealth inequality are going to happen faster than the worst predictions expect them to, but it will not lead to "collapse." The country doesn't "collapse" because it gets hit with increasing levels of natural disasters or because the rich have all the money. "Collapse" is what happened to the Mayans. *Decline* is what happened to the Romans. We're going to end up like the Romans, not the Mayans.
According to geographer Jared Diamond, five factors contribute to collapse: climate change, hostile neighbors, collapse of essential trading partners, environmental problems, and the society's response to the foregoing four factors.
I'd say "check" to each factor.
Oh I've read his books--including Collapse and GG&S--and I agree with the bulk of his observations. That said, dealing with forest fires and hurricanes is not the same as what he's talking about with respect to climate change collapsing civilizations.
In older civilizations there was not a globalized economy the way there is today, thus, when climate change killed crops and older civilizations lost trade partners for a variety of reasons, they were often fucked. Modern times are *very* different when it comes to 1st world countries like the US. Just look at how the sanctions regime imposed on countries like Russia has *not* led to their collapse when it comes to losing trade partners. The same could be said of climate change. Those things will affect 3rd world countries much more than they will affect 1st world countries who have the wealth to endure. The worst we will see is wrecked neighborhoods that will simply be rebuilt and higher migration levels whenever other countries have serious issues related to climate (Europe gets the bulk of the N African/Near East migrants and we get the S/C American ones).
A good assessment. I just wonder if the Romans were divided into antagonistic camps, one of which was heavily armed with weapons of war.
Yes, they were. Look up the Gracchi Brothers, Marius, and Sulla. There was about a century of violent unrest before the Roman Republic fully transitioned into an Empire. The rise of first Julius Caesar and then Augustus Caesar marked the end of the transition, not the beginning.
Edited to add: For those of you who don't know much about the politics at the end of the Roman Republic, check out "The Storm Before the Storm: The Beginning of the End of the Roman Republic" by Mike Duncan (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01N9ZJXZJ/ref=kinw_myk_ro_title) It will send chills up your spine.
I'd also add Dan Carlin's Hardcore History podcast series "Death Throws of the Republic" to this list.
That whole Tribune of the Plebes thing was the first domino.