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Desi's avatar

NBC News is reporting thirty Republican Senators think Gaetz is dead in the water. If they haven't yet, they're about to have a look at the testimony to an ethics committee from a sex trafficking victim of Gaetz who was a minor. The FBI will certainly see it, as part of their vetting process. So either Trump will need to strongarm them or try a recess appointment. I'd say the odds are currently slim he'll be confirmed. And I don't see how those same thirty Senators don't have similar reservations about Tulsi Gabbard for DNI. Her anti-Ukraine Putin-fawning is featured on Russian TV. She sided with Assad after he used chemical nerve agents on innocent citizens in Syria, including kids. Our allies wouldn't want to share intel with Gabbard in charge, as JVL has pointed out, and surely Senators like Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton know this. I'm not saying they care enough, but they undoubtedly know. They say publicly we should promptly confirm Trump's picks, but I'd guess they could easily be two of the thirty who don't see a realistic path for Gaetz. Democrats in the Senate better gear up and force these coward's hands in these public confirmation hearings, which has the added benefit of making Trump look weak. Even if Trump rams Gaetz and Gabbard through, they will be widely disrespected, therefore weak, potentially damaging. I think the damaging part is the point, for "MAGA", but most of the country aren't here for the instability, the weakness or the danger for the sake of some pointless ill-conceived contrarianism by Trump. A week ago I would've told myself its naive to think they won't all buckle under., but now I think something's gotta give. It will be interesting to see what happens. Trump has clearly given the Republican Senate no good options, and I'm here definitely here for that.

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RickRickRick's avatar

My feeling is that Gaetz and maybe RFK Jr are sacrificial goats, which Trump will withdraw in exchange for GOP Senators agreeing to give him EVERYONE else he nominates. Some say that Trump will never back down, but I think that's misreading his claim of being a "great dealmaker."

The one he REALLY wants is Tulsi Gabbard, because that's a gift to Putin.

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Old Chemist 11's avatar

In fact Trump ALWAYS backs down whenever he's truly confronted. Problem is that he's almost never confronted. A rare exception was in 2020 when members of his staff threatened to quit if he hired Jeffrey Clark as AG. On that note I was surprised Clark wasn't his first pick this time. Ironically he might be if Gaetz is not confirmed.

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RickRickRick's avatar

I had the same thought -- either Jeffrey Clark or *gasp* Rudy Giuliani.

Either one still possible.

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Desi's avatar

I think Trump wants, possibly even expects, in his deranged drunk-with-power pea brain, all three of them should get through. He's sized up the GOP senate and thinks they won't dare cross him. That being said, I have a hard time imagining any of those three actually going through, with their glaring disqualifications, with thirty GOP senators saying on background Gaetz has no path. And if Trump has to replace them with watered-down versions he's going to appear ineffectual right after winning the election. He's at an all-time apex of being sure of his influence and instincts (for good reason) which is saying something. And all the background statements I've seen from his team and from Congress are he wants these people, not less potent replacements. No doubt elements in his team or the wider GOP want or expect they'll be sacrificed, but I don't see any evidence Trump does.

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RickRickRick's avatar

Well, it's a competition between (a) "I am all-powerful and they wouldn't dare cross me" and (b) "I am the King of the Dealmakers and I will con them into giving me the ones I really want by making them think they are asserting themselves, the suckers."

He doesn't need Gaetz for DOJ -- there are plenty of other lawyers who will do anything he asks, like Todd Blanche or Alina Habba. And I'm sure he's been told that everyone in Congress hates Gaetz, so it would be fitting that Gaetz is the human sacrifice. Trump may be a dummy in most respects, but one thing he knows is who hates whom.

Yes, maybe I'm giving Trump too much credit for thinking of any kind. But it looks like Gaetz is just too much for even his GOP sycophants to swallow.

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Desi's avatar

Yes, Gaetz is the least likely of the clown show appointees to move forward. Whether intentionally or not, the Gaetz gambit may serve to pave the way for Hegesth or Gabbard or RFK Jr, when Gaetz isn’t confirmed or is withdrawn. Having to replace all four is both hard to imagine and hard not to imagine considering who Trump is and the ultimate power he wields, and how clearly bad these appointees are objectively.

Along with knowing who hates whom, Trump knows who has the upper hand and who doesn’t. He’s captured the oval, the senate, the courts l. He has a VP on the same page for tie votes. As JVL said today “ the man understands power dynamics. And from where I sit, the institutions with the power to stop him look hopelessly, appallingly weak.”

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