The New Yorker's Susan Glasser joins the group (plus Philip Bump) to discuss Harris's Fox interview, Trump's spiraling mental state, and the oligarchy/corruption a second Trump term would usher in.
It seems to me that Linda Chavez is missing something when it comes to the immigration issue. There are a significant number of voters in the US who do not want ANY non-white immigrants, illegal or legal. The towns they grew up in were 95+% white, and they want them to stay that way (or go back to being that way). No explanations of the benefits of legal immigration are going to change these people's attitudes. As JVL says, "Good luck, America."
I really have been vibing with Linda lately but I couldn’t disagree more with her on immigration.
Linda I’m probably just as or more pro immigrant as you are. However, if Harris at any point if she says “increase” next to the word immigrant, she loses votes. It sucks but there is no world where we increase pathways for immigrants. Congress won’t touch it nor the executive branch. This isn’t because they don’t know it’s good for America but because it is toxic politically. It sucks but it’s the truth.
One last thing, I am an ex Republican too…the reason we are here on immigration is 100% because of the dog whistle on immigration by our former party. They blew that dog whistle for 4 decades and refused to do ANYTHING to solve the problem.
It depends on whether voters truly care as much about inflation as they claim. Inflation in the US for the past two years has been driven ENTIRELY by the labor shortage. Barring a miracle cure for long Covid, the only short-term solution to the labor shortage - and therefore to inflation - is more immigration.
We need politicians who will throw down the gauntlet to voters and tell them, as per Matt Yglesias, that TRADEOFFS ARE REAL. If you refuse to choose between more immigration and labor shortages, you will get inflation. Anyone who tells you different is an idiot, a liar, or a coward. Most of our politicians are cowards who don't want to risk being the one to tell voters the truth because they think their voters are stupid.
There is no solution that does not involve a new political party.
This just isn’t true. Inflation in Germany, Italy, France, Spain, etc is not caused by labor shortages. These countries do not have labor shortages. In fact, unemployment is UP not down from pre covid levels in other countries that have excess labor supply. The largest cause by far is the supply chain issues that happened because of covid. I could go through all the issues with JIT and shipping and semiconductors (which people don’t realize have HUGE lead times….close to a year once factories get shut down). Our economy and all others flipped on a dime. We went from buying tons of products to not buying anything during covid and switching to services. Once we flipped back in 2022/3 it through everything on its head. The persistent inflation we are seeing here (50 nips above target) is 100% caused by labor shortages and energy costs. This you are 100% correct about.
I agree completely with you that immigrants are GREAT for prices (and innovation) but also do hold down wages which is also something people hate.
Honestly, this is just me throwing shit against the wall, we are going to have to do something drastic on immigration and feel the effects of it to really update our system. Shoot this may not be enough. Look at the UK, they still don’t realize that brexit was a MASSIVE disaster and now that they are out of the union are still somehow blaming immigrants. I’m lost.
"Look at the UK, they still don’t realize that brexit was a MASSIVE disaster and now that they are out of the union are still somehow blaming immigrants."
Respectfully, I think you're off here. The Economist has reported on polls that show a pretty good majority inside England (which provided the main bulk of the Brexit supporters) think that Brexit was a mistake. A smaller majority say they would be in favor of another referendum to repeal Brexit.
A little late, of course, but it appears the Farage wool has been pulled off many English eyes.
There is absolutely no plan for the uk to go back into the EU. Labor, who is in theory the pro-EU party, has no plans to join the EU. That being said, they still don’t want immigrants. The government is currently struggling, still, with anti-immigrant sentiment.
What I’m describing above is the conundrum. People (waves hands furiously, natives…citizens…white people), don’t want immigrants but they want prices low. The question is, how much pain are its citizens willing to suffer to get their preferred option, less immigrants? The answer seems to be a lot because in the uk, currently, they are talking about more border restrictions and evictions and yet they are struggling with the NHS and prices.
I've been trying to communicate this for years - the danger of the next Trump administration is less jack boots on the street and more that we're going to reach a point where you'll have to pay a bribe at the DMV to get your license. The problem is that on a smaller scale, this is where most Americans already live. I lived in rural Kentucky for several years and the amount of petty corruption, favoritism, and nepotism that was accepted as normal was absolutely mind-boggling. Trump is going to enable that at a national level. People see Trumpism as normal because for a large segment of the population, it is normal. And there are many people who see that they will benefit from more of it in the short term. But in the long term it means we just won't be able to maintain the country and hold it all together.
It seems to me that Linda Chavez is missing something when it comes to the immigration issue. There are a significant number of voters in the US who do not want ANY non-white immigrants, illegal or legal. The towns they grew up in were 95+% white, and they want them to stay that way (or go back to being that way). No explanations of the benefits of legal immigration are going to change these people's attitudes. As JVL says, "Good luck, America."
Great point about the Bracero program! Increase LEGAL immigration! Thanks Linda Chavez!
Harris just has to look presidential!
How was AZ a “bad call?” The AP made the same call at the same time and Fox had a non-partisan, walled elections desk. What am I missing?
I wondered that as well.
I really have been vibing with Linda lately but I couldn’t disagree more with her on immigration.
Linda I’m probably just as or more pro immigrant as you are. However, if Harris at any point if she says “increase” next to the word immigrant, she loses votes. It sucks but there is no world where we increase pathways for immigrants. Congress won’t touch it nor the executive branch. This isn’t because they don’t know it’s good for America but because it is toxic politically. It sucks but it’s the truth.
One last thing, I am an ex Republican too…the reason we are here on immigration is 100% because of the dog whistle on immigration by our former party. They blew that dog whistle for 4 decades and refused to do ANYTHING to solve the problem.
It depends on whether voters truly care as much about inflation as they claim. Inflation in the US for the past two years has been driven ENTIRELY by the labor shortage. Barring a miracle cure for long Covid, the only short-term solution to the labor shortage - and therefore to inflation - is more immigration.
We need politicians who will throw down the gauntlet to voters and tell them, as per Matt Yglesias, that TRADEOFFS ARE REAL. If you refuse to choose between more immigration and labor shortages, you will get inflation. Anyone who tells you different is an idiot, a liar, or a coward. Most of our politicians are cowards who don't want to risk being the one to tell voters the truth because they think their voters are stupid.
There is no solution that does not involve a new political party.
That was a good piece by Yglesias.
This just isn’t true. Inflation in Germany, Italy, France, Spain, etc is not caused by labor shortages. These countries do not have labor shortages. In fact, unemployment is UP not down from pre covid levels in other countries that have excess labor supply. The largest cause by far is the supply chain issues that happened because of covid. I could go through all the issues with JIT and shipping and semiconductors (which people don’t realize have HUGE lead times….close to a year once factories get shut down). Our economy and all others flipped on a dime. We went from buying tons of products to not buying anything during covid and switching to services. Once we flipped back in 2022/3 it through everything on its head. The persistent inflation we are seeing here (50 nips above target) is 100% caused by labor shortages and energy costs. This you are 100% correct about.
I agree completely with you that immigrants are GREAT for prices (and innovation) but also do hold down wages which is also something people hate.
Honestly, this is just me throwing shit against the wall, we are going to have to do something drastic on immigration and feel the effects of it to really update our system. Shoot this may not be enough. Look at the UK, they still don’t realize that brexit was a MASSIVE disaster and now that they are out of the union are still somehow blaming immigrants. I’m lost.
"Look at the UK, they still don’t realize that brexit was a MASSIVE disaster and now that they are out of the union are still somehow blaming immigrants."
Respectfully, I think you're off here. The Economist has reported on polls that show a pretty good majority inside England (which provided the main bulk of the Brexit supporters) think that Brexit was a mistake. A smaller majority say they would be in favor of another referendum to repeal Brexit.
A little late, of course, but it appears the Farage wool has been pulled off many English eyes.
There is absolutely no plan for the uk to go back into the EU. Labor, who is in theory the pro-EU party, has no plans to join the EU. That being said, they still don’t want immigrants. The government is currently struggling, still, with anti-immigrant sentiment.
What I’m describing above is the conundrum. People (waves hands furiously, natives…citizens…white people), don’t want immigrants but they want prices low. The question is, how much pain are its citizens willing to suffer to get their preferred option, less immigrants? The answer seems to be a lot because in the uk, currently, they are talking about more border restrictions and evictions and yet they are struggling with the NHS and prices.
I've been trying to communicate this for years - the danger of the next Trump administration is less jack boots on the street and more that we're going to reach a point where you'll have to pay a bribe at the DMV to get your license. The problem is that on a smaller scale, this is where most Americans already live. I lived in rural Kentucky for several years and the amount of petty corruption, favoritism, and nepotism that was accepted as normal was absolutely mind-boggling. Trump is going to enable that at a national level. People see Trumpism as normal because for a large segment of the population, it is normal. And there are many people who see that they will benefit from more of it in the short term. But in the long term it means we just won't be able to maintain the country and hold it all together.
Sadly, I agree.