Question for the historians: Has there ever been a time when an autocracy has been replaced by a democratic government without political violence or all-out revolution?
I see the US quickly turning into a Putin-style system after Trump solidifies the trifecta of the senate, the judiciary, and the administrative branch. The fourth and fift…
Question for the historians: Has there ever been a time when an autocracy has been replaced by a democratic government without political violence or all-out revolution?
I see the US quickly turning into a Putin-style system after Trump solidifies the trifecta of the senate, the judiciary, and the administrative branch. The fourth and fifth “branches”, the media and business, are already bending the knee to his threats.
How can this oligarchy ever be reversed? Seems like a one-way street, historically: China, Russia, NK, Iran, Cuba, etc.
When authoritarians have been ousted, it has been bloody: the revolutions in America and France, Civil War, WW2.
I think it depends on the autocrat. In 1986, at the point where Ferdinand Marcos would have had to start killing protesters to remain in office, he followed US advice to go into exile instead. A few years later, Augusto Pinochet stepped down.
In both cases, I think the dictators responded to carrots and sticks from external countries. I'm not sure what country or alliance would be able to provide such carrots and sticks to persuade a US president to step down. I suspect that Trump would fight to the death of his last supporter, rather than give up power.
Not an historian here but I am thinking that the rise of the Eastern and Central European republics after the collapse of the Soviet Union but only because the Soviets lost the will and power to try and stop them.
I think generally the only real power autocracies have is the threat of violence to keep the people in line. If the threat doesn't work then violence is used which then leads to the bloody resistance and revolutions.
Can oligarchy be reversed? Some revolutions have empowered tyrants and essentially a new set of oligarchs given power. The French Revolution was violent but then the violence was extended in order to solidify the political "gains" of the revolutionaries and within a short time embracing a new autocratic monarch.
There is a thing called "The Iron Law of Oligarchy" that basically says that every system or organization will eventually be captured by oligarchic forces. I think that may be waht we are seeing in America today.
“[Robert] Michels argues that democratic attempts to hold leadership positions accountable are prone to fail, since with power comes the ability to reward loyalty, the ability to control information about the organization, and the ability to control what procedures the organization follows when making decisions. All of these mechanisms can be used to strongly influence the outcome of any decisions made 'democratically' by members.”
Thanks, I hadn’t thought of Franco. So of course now I’m trying to imagine a similar scenario playing out here over the next few years. Who in the current MAGA-mob would have the guts to do what’s right, after becoming the heir to DJT?
Harris winning, preferably in a landslide, plus Democrat control of Congress, would make things a bit easier. Even though it will still be quite a challenge to get to a kind of MAGA-weak/free 'normal'. Otherwise we can expect the same circus coming to town in 2028.
To your question.... I can´t think of any real gutsy MAGA people.... I guess the best thing that could happen is that crucial players (Trump, Bannon, Stephen Miller, etc.) would be out of the equation. It would also require complicit billionaires (Musk, Thiel, etc) and certain (Social) Media to lose their power (and money). And maybe JD Vance and Don jr. would accept being exiled to some other place (with some money) and leave things to a new (non-MAGA) leader....
Question for the historians: Has there ever been a time when an autocracy has been replaced by a democratic government without political violence or all-out revolution?
I see the US quickly turning into a Putin-style system after Trump solidifies the trifecta of the senate, the judiciary, and the administrative branch. The fourth and fifth “branches”, the media and business, are already bending the knee to his threats.
How can this oligarchy ever be reversed? Seems like a one-way street, historically: China, Russia, NK, Iran, Cuba, etc.
When authoritarians have been ousted, it has been bloody: the revolutions in America and France, Civil War, WW2.
I think it depends on the autocrat. In 1986, at the point where Ferdinand Marcos would have had to start killing protesters to remain in office, he followed US advice to go into exile instead. A few years later, Augusto Pinochet stepped down.
In both cases, I think the dictators responded to carrots and sticks from external countries. I'm not sure what country or alliance would be able to provide such carrots and sticks to persuade a US president to step down. I suspect that Trump would fight to the death of his last supporter, rather than give up power.
Not an historian here but I am thinking that the rise of the Eastern and Central European republics after the collapse of the Soviet Union but only because the Soviets lost the will and power to try and stop them.
I think generally the only real power autocracies have is the threat of violence to keep the people in line. If the threat doesn't work then violence is used which then leads to the bloody resistance and revolutions.
Can oligarchy be reversed? Some revolutions have empowered tyrants and essentially a new set of oligarchs given power. The French Revolution was violent but then the violence was extended in order to solidify the political "gains" of the revolutionaries and within a short time embracing a new autocratic monarch.
There is a thing called "The Iron Law of Oligarchy" that basically says that every system or organization will eventually be captured by oligarchic forces. I think that may be waht we are seeing in America today.
“[Robert] Michels argues that democratic attempts to hold leadership positions accountable are prone to fail, since with power comes the ability to reward loyalty, the ability to control information about the organization, and the ability to control what procedures the organization follows when making decisions. All of these mechanisms can be used to strongly influence the outcome of any decisions made 'democratically' by members.”
Rings quite familiar with the current situation.
Doesn't it though!
Thanks, I hadn’t thought of Franco. So of course now I’m trying to imagine a similar scenario playing out here over the next few years. Who in the current MAGA-mob would have the guts to do what’s right, after becoming the heir to DJT?
Harris winning, preferably in a landslide, plus Democrat control of Congress, would make things a bit easier. Even though it will still be quite a challenge to get to a kind of MAGA-weak/free 'normal'. Otherwise we can expect the same circus coming to town in 2028.
To your question.... I can´t think of any real gutsy MAGA people.... I guess the best thing that could happen is that crucial players (Trump, Bannon, Stephen Miller, etc.) would be out of the equation. It would also require complicit billionaires (Musk, Thiel, etc) and certain (Social) Media to lose their power (and money). And maybe JD Vance and Don jr. would accept being exiled to some other place (with some money) and leave things to a new (non-MAGA) leader....
Forgot all about the post Franco evolution of Spain. Thanks for the reminder.