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A few comments...

1) Thanks for the article about Lake and Gallego. I live in Arizona so I have had a front-row seat to Lake’s political rise to prominence in the Arizona GOP. So the question of what Lake will do if she loses (as expected) is an intriguing one.

The first question is how Lake will frame the election results. You have to have seen Lake in action to appreciate how she mimics Trump. So if Trump disputes the election results (assuming he loses, you know he will), Lake will absolutely have to as well. In my opinion, that’s why she had to keep up the drumbeat of election fraud after her 2022 loss. She wanted to stay on Trump’s good side (there was the rumor that she was being considered for VP), and Trump wouldn’t have tolerated someone saying that they lost fair and square. But it will be harder for her to say that if she loses by the 7 or 8 points that the polls are predicting. But even if it is harder, she will likely find a way.

But my view is that the support for Lake is really slipping. She just hasn’t captured people’s attention like she did two years ago. Perhaps it’s a function of the fact that she hasn’t had that much money to spend on ads. But the whole race just hasn’t generated the sort of excitement that you’d normally expect. Perhaps that has to do with the fact that almost everyone expects Gallego to win.

So I think that Lake will have a tough time staying relevant if she loses big tomorrow.

2) The idea that it’s bad for someone to change their mind on some issue always seems dumb to me. It’s not that they changed; it’s the reason that they did that matters. Even if Gallego has “changed” to make his policies more in line with what voters want, why is that a bad thing (unless you believe he is being cynical about it)?

I didn’t like Gallego when he first appeared on the scene because I thought him too loud (ironically, a lot like Lake is now). But he has taken a page from the Sinema playbook and toned everything down. It worked for Sinema (for example, Sinema was almost preternaturally calm during her debate with McSally in 2018 while McSally flailed her arms around and accused Sinema of treason). And it appears to be working for Gallego.

After all, if you want someone who refuses to change their policy positions even when the facts on the ground have changed, you have your role model – George W. Bush. How’d that work out?

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Kari should just go back to doing the news. Instead of trying to be the news, because people are clearly turning the channel. Go Ruben! !

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