For the record, Martha McSally tried repeatedly to run for Gabby Gifford's seat in the house, and was resoundingly thumped. She is and was a terrible candidate (I lived in Tucson, and gladly voted for Giffords all the time I was there)
Now Geoff, McSally did win a House seat in 2014 & 2016 before going on to lose two Senate elections to Kyrsten Sinema & Mark Kelly, losing to Kelly even while running as short-term "incumbent" Senator due to her appointment to the late John McCain's seat by the Republican governor (whose name is mostly already forgotten).
And to be fair, not so much a terrible candidate (c'mon: female fighter pilot! squadron commander! combat vet! ...she's got a golden resume for AZ)... just not a very nice person
Not sure about boundaries in the Tucson area - feels like the districts have been re-drawn a couple times in the last decade, which doesn't seem right cuz I thought it was only every 10 years? I'm a geezer so memory doesn't always serve, and south of TUS so don't always follow details up there. So McS may have been in Giffords' seat but NEVER close to filling Gabby's shoes.
Gallego is right. He can defeat Lake, but he can’t make her go away. Only Arizona Republicans can do that. Maybe, after losing often enough, they will.
She infamously told “McCain Republicans” that they could ‘get the hell out’, and they did. And they ain’t a forgiving type. And they ain’t coming back to her.
As an AZ voter I've happily voted against Kari Lake twice. She is a despicable human being. Didn't want her as governor nor want her as my senator. She doesn't represent me or my values.
A theory: MAGA can produce a Trump on the national level, but not on the state level. Because of the skewed nature of the electoral college (and their party's winner-take-all presidential primary system), such a candidate can become the nominee and have a shot at an electoral vote win but (probably) never a popular vote win. Since no state has a similar system (a separate electoral count that undermines 'one person, one vote'), MAGA state candidates have a much larger uphill climb after getting a nomination. (I recognize flaws in this theory, but think that on the whole it might explain why candidates like Lake flop.)
There was a Republican in Colorado who was pushing for a state-wide electoral college at the county level a couple of years ago. Unfortunately for the future of that idea, it had to be passed state-wide in order to become law.
1) Thanks for the article about Lake and Gallego. I live in Arizona so I have had a front-row seat to Lake’s political rise to prominence in the Arizona GOP. So the question of what Lake will do if she loses (as expected) is an intriguing one.
The first question is how Lake will frame the election results. You have to have seen Lake in action to appreciate how she mimics Trump. So if Trump disputes the election results (assuming he loses, you know he will), Lake will absolutely have to as well. In my opinion, that’s why she had to keep up the drumbeat of election fraud after her 2022 loss. She wanted to stay on Trump’s good side (there was the rumor that she was being considered for VP), and Trump wouldn’t have tolerated someone saying that they lost fair and square. But it will be harder for her to say that if she loses by the 7 or 8 points that the polls are predicting. But even if it is harder, she will likely find a way.
But my view is that the support for Lake is really slipping. She just hasn’t captured people’s attention like she did two years ago. Perhaps it’s a function of the fact that she hasn’t had that much money to spend on ads. But the whole race just hasn’t generated the sort of excitement that you’d normally expect. Perhaps that has to do with the fact that almost everyone expects Gallego to win.
So I think that Lake will have a tough time staying relevant if she loses big tomorrow.
2) The idea that it’s bad for someone to change their mind on some issue always seems dumb to me. It’s not that they changed; it’s the reason that they did that matters. Even if Gallego has “changed” to make his policies more in line with what voters want, why is that a bad thing (unless you believe he is being cynical about it)?
I didn’t like Gallego when he first appeared on the scene because I thought him too loud (ironically, a lot like Lake is now). But he has taken a page from the Sinema playbook and toned everything down. It worked for Sinema (for example, Sinema was almost preternaturally calm during her debate with McSally in 2018 while McSally flailed her arms around and accused Sinema of treason). And it appears to be working for Gallego.
After all, if you want someone who refuses to change their policy positions even when the facts on the ground have changed, you have your role model – George W. Bush. How’d that work out?
eventually, I expect to see her again - at the pearly gates arguing that she's def spozed to be on the list for admission, there were illegal angels voting, St. Peter counted wrong, etc. I'll tip my hat as I pass her by
Could be. I did go to Germany two years ago. Never used that though. I did once say Ich bin kin deutch.( I don't speak German,{spelling may be off}) I got the impression that I wasn't understood since it was my Mn. accent.
I didn't take German but I learned a few words before I left. But there is no way I could converse. It just seems like they speak to fast, not like us Americans!
Rob - please don’t diss Gov. Hobbs. Certainly the best governor we’ve had in years. Remember she has a heavily gerrymandered Republican legislature filled with people who selected Kari Lake (twice!) working constantly to undercut Hobbs. We’re trying to move forward in a challenging environment down here
Rob - thank you for $upporting Dem victories here! No question, Gov. Hobbs isn't a knock-your-socks-off speaker but she's competent and not selling the state to outside budders - a novel approach, hope it catches on
Hobbs could really benefit from elocution lessons to learn how to project and strengthen her voice. I donated to her from Oregon because I listened to what she said rather than simply how she said it. I believe she could train her voice to be much more forceful and effective. Her aides should suggest this to her.
Love the fortitude you sane, decent Arizonans possess. I always donate to Democratic candidates in your state. Only regret was donating to that turncoat Sinema.
I've always said: Kari Lake is the downscale, low-rent, third-ranked local TV version of a successful national network show. In her mind, she can duplicate the Trump Show, but everyone sees she's a cheap knock-off, copying (i.e. stealing) moves from the Real Thing. I've never understood Trump's charisma (blech) but can't deny some people feel it. Kari doesn't have that but believes she SHOULD have it cuz when she was on TV she got invites to the county fair, rodeos, & such. She believes she's a celebrity. Sad, really
Kari Lake is like some movie where the monster has at least 19 lives. That nobody can finally dispatch. I saw her on Kaitlin Collins last week where she was asked at least 8 times whether she did lose in 2022. Every time she said she "wasn't looking back, only forward" to her inevitably incredible future. It was truly eerie. She is a cyborg. A very deluded and dangerous one. Ruben, please put her in our review mirror tomorrow !!
The polls show Gallego AND Trump winning AZ. Who are these ticket splitters? I think Sarah talked to a couple in a focus group, but I don't remember their rationale. And honestly there probably is no rationale that would satisfy my need for things to make sense.
I don't understand it either ... but it is another example of how nobody else seems to be able to do the Trump thing. For whatever $0.02 that is worth.
She is destined to become the claquer in chief (CinC for her) at Mirage a Loco trying to cheer up and commiserate with the decaying Orange as another two-time winner who was cheated both times by those evil democratic demons.
"Arizona Democrats Are Ready to Bury Kari Lake’s Non-Career"
Let's face it, ALL of America is ready to bury her non-career. Thank You to Arizonans!
I am also wondering what is going to happen to Sinema who has her own issues with wanting attention.
For the record, Martha McSally tried repeatedly to run for Gabby Gifford's seat in the house, and was resoundingly thumped. She is and was a terrible candidate (I lived in Tucson, and gladly voted for Giffords all the time I was there)
Now Geoff, McSally did win a House seat in 2014 & 2016 before going on to lose two Senate elections to Kyrsten Sinema & Mark Kelly, losing to Kelly even while running as short-term "incumbent" Senator due to her appointment to the late John McCain's seat by the Republican governor (whose name is mostly already forgotten).
And to be fair, not so much a terrible candidate (c'mon: female fighter pilot! squadron commander! combat vet! ...she's got a golden resume for AZ)... just not a very nice person
I stand corrected. I left the state in 2014 and lost touch with the politics at that level of granularity.
I agree, her resume should be platinum, but she is just a terrible human being, and that stands out.
Did she win Gifford’s old seat, or did she move to a more Republican area than Pima county?
Not sure about boundaries in the Tucson area - feels like the districts have been re-drawn a couple times in the last decade, which doesn't seem right cuz I thought it was only every 10 years? I'm a geezer so memory doesn't always serve, and south of TUS so don't always follow details up there. So McS may have been in Giffords' seat but NEVER close to filling Gabby's shoes.
Happy to have voted early FOR Ruben Gallego. He will be a significant improvement from Sinema.
Me too!
Gallego is right. He can defeat Lake, but he can’t make her go away. Only Arizona Republicans can do that. Maybe, after losing often enough, they will.
She infamously told “McCain Republicans” that they could ‘get the hell out’, and they did. And they ain’t a forgiving type. And they ain’t coming back to her.
She is the Sauron of politics.
As an AZ voter I've happily voted against Kari Lake twice. She is a despicable human being. Didn't want her as governor nor want her as my senator. She doesn't represent me or my values.
Lake’s mastery of vitriol might get her a job at Newsmax. If so, Bannon will finally have to wash his hair.
I don’t think Lake is power mad as much as she is unquenchably thirsty for attention. She is totally obnoxious, but she’s also just really sad.
Oh, man, I want one of those lotería cards!
Those are amazing! "la Mentirosa" y "el Marine" 🤣
A theory: MAGA can produce a Trump on the national level, but not on the state level. Because of the skewed nature of the electoral college (and their party's winner-take-all presidential primary system), such a candidate can become the nominee and have a shot at an electoral vote win but (probably) never a popular vote win. Since no state has a similar system (a separate electoral count that undermines 'one person, one vote'), MAGA state candidates have a much larger uphill climb after getting a nomination. (I recognize flaws in this theory, but think that on the whole it might explain why candidates like Lake flop.)
That’s a pretty good theory
There was a Republican in Colorado who was pushing for a state-wide electoral college at the county level a couple of years ago. Unfortunately for the future of that idea, it had to be passed state-wide in order to become law.
A few comments...
1) Thanks for the article about Lake and Gallego. I live in Arizona so I have had a front-row seat to Lake’s political rise to prominence in the Arizona GOP. So the question of what Lake will do if she loses (as expected) is an intriguing one.
The first question is how Lake will frame the election results. You have to have seen Lake in action to appreciate how she mimics Trump. So if Trump disputes the election results (assuming he loses, you know he will), Lake will absolutely have to as well. In my opinion, that’s why she had to keep up the drumbeat of election fraud after her 2022 loss. She wanted to stay on Trump’s good side (there was the rumor that she was being considered for VP), and Trump wouldn’t have tolerated someone saying that they lost fair and square. But it will be harder for her to say that if she loses by the 7 or 8 points that the polls are predicting. But even if it is harder, she will likely find a way.
But my view is that the support for Lake is really slipping. She just hasn’t captured people’s attention like she did two years ago. Perhaps it’s a function of the fact that she hasn’t had that much money to spend on ads. But the whole race just hasn’t generated the sort of excitement that you’d normally expect. Perhaps that has to do with the fact that almost everyone expects Gallego to win.
So I think that Lake will have a tough time staying relevant if she loses big tomorrow.
2) The idea that it’s bad for someone to change their mind on some issue always seems dumb to me. It’s not that they changed; it’s the reason that they did that matters. Even if Gallego has “changed” to make his policies more in line with what voters want, why is that a bad thing (unless you believe he is being cynical about it)?
I didn’t like Gallego when he first appeared on the scene because I thought him too loud (ironically, a lot like Lake is now). But he has taken a page from the Sinema playbook and toned everything down. It worked for Sinema (for example, Sinema was almost preternaturally calm during her debate with McSally in 2018 while McSally flailed her arms around and accused Sinema of treason). And it appears to be working for Gallego.
After all, if you want someone who refuses to change their policy positions even when the facts on the ground have changed, you have your role model – George W. Bush. How’d that work out?
Kari should just go back to doing the news. Instead of trying to be the news, because people are clearly turning the channel. Go Ruben! !
Regarding Lake: So long, goodbye and farewell...
you missed "auf wiedersehen" 🤣
"Auf wiedersehen" implies we will be seeing each other again. The other three imply finality. There is no reason to encourage Kari to try again.
eventually, I expect to see her again - at the pearly gates arguing that she's def spozed to be on the list for admission, there were illegal angels voting, St. Peter counted wrong, etc. I'll tip my hat as I pass her by
I thought that would be appropriate to say. That was the title of the last Mash episode
Wasn't that Goodbye farewell amen? I was goin' more Sound of Music 🙂
Could be. I did go to Germany two years ago. Never used that though. I did once say Ich bin kin deutch.( I don't speak German,{spelling may be off}) I got the impression that I wasn't understood since it was my Mn. accent.
My high school German sometimes comes back out of nowhere when I try to speak Spanish! But I’ll never forget “Mehr Bier, bitte”
I didn't take German but I learned a few words before I left. But there is no way I could converse. It just seems like they speak to fast, not like us Americans!
Lake and the entire 2022 Arizona GOP slate is one of the great political self-owns of this century. FFS, Lake lost to Katie Hobbs!!
Rob - please don’t diss Gov. Hobbs. Certainly the best governor we’ve had in years. Remember she has a heavily gerrymandered Republican legislature filled with people who selected Kari Lake (twice!) working constantly to undercut Hobbs. We’re trying to move forward in a challenging environment down here
You’re absolutely right. And for the record I donated to Hobbs. But she’s not Shapiro on the stump.
Rob - thank you for $upporting Dem victories here! No question, Gov. Hobbs isn't a knock-your-socks-off speaker but she's competent and not selling the state to outside budders - a novel approach, hope it catches on
Hobbs could really benefit from elocution lessons to learn how to project and strengthen her voice. I donated to her from Oregon because I listened to what she said rather than simply how she said it. I believe she could train her voice to be much more forceful and effective. Her aides should suggest this to her.
Nancy - you shoulda heard our last guv'nah. Doesn't appear we prize oratory too much in our state politics 🙂
Love the fortitude you sane, decent Arizonans possess. I always donate to Democratic candidates in your state. Only regret was donating to that turncoat Sinema.
Amen!
Agreed. I’m just saying that Hobbs wasn’t a super charismatic candidate. And she still won. And Lake claims to be governor.
I've always said: Kari Lake is the downscale, low-rent, third-ranked local TV version of a successful national network show. In her mind, she can duplicate the Trump Show, but everyone sees she's a cheap knock-off, copying (i.e. stealing) moves from the Real Thing. I've never understood Trump's charisma (blech) but can't deny some people feel it. Kari doesn't have that but believes she SHOULD have it cuz when she was on TV she got invites to the county fair, rodeos, & such. She believes she's a celebrity. Sad, really
Republicans are going to learn what democrats found out in 2016. Popularity is non-transferable and Trump was their best shot.
Kari Lake is like some movie where the monster has at least 19 lives. That nobody can finally dispatch. I saw her on Kaitlin Collins last week where she was asked at least 8 times whether she did lose in 2022. Every time she said she "wasn't looking back, only forward" to her inevitably incredible future. It was truly eerie. She is a cyborg. A very deluded and dangerous one. Ruben, please put her in our review mirror tomorrow !!
Loves the attention and dinners at Mar Lago. Not going anywhere until her funding source is cut off
The polls show Gallego AND Trump winning AZ. Who are these ticket splitters? I think Sarah talked to a couple in a focus group, but I don't remember their rationale. And honestly there probably is no rationale that would satisfy my need for things to make sense.
I don't understand it either ... but it is another example of how nobody else seems to be able to do the Trump thing. For whatever $0.02 that is worth.
She is destined to become the claquer in chief (CinC for her) at Mirage a Loco trying to cheer up and commiserate with the decaying Orange as another two-time winner who was cheated both times by those evil democratic demons.