Assad Is Gone, But Syria’s Troubles Remain
Just because the bad guy lost doesn’t mean the good guys won.
THE ASSAD REGIME’S HALF-CENTURY reign of terror over Syria came to an end Sunday when Bashar al-Assad fled to the arms of his patron, Russia. The anti-Assad forces, led by Hay’at Tahir al-Sham (HTS), a radical Sunni Islamic terror group with deep ties to al Qaeda and the Islamic State, appeared to take control of the government. The Taliban have already congratulated their HTS brethren.
It’s anyone’s guess who will wind up controlling Syria. As of Sunday, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, which has extensive links to the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, was fighting U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, which fields an irregular army filled with Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) combat veterans. The PKK is an officially designated terrorist group. Yes, you read that correctly. Two NATO members (Turkey and the United States) are conducting a proxy war against each other, and the United States is, in effect, sponsoring people it considers terrorists. It’s a very confusing battlefield, to say the least.
The SDF’s stronghold is in northeastern Syria along the borders with northern Iraq and southern Turkey. While the PKK is only one of the many groups inside the SDF, which includes the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its armed People Defense Units (YPG), it has links to groups that have conducted terrorist attacks in southern Turkey.
Turkey’s interests in Syria include securing its border and preventing any resurgence of Kurdish nationalism. Although Turkey is a NATO member, Turkish President Recep Erdoğan is cozy with the Muslim Brotherhood, which explains his friendliness toward Hamas. The SNA, filled with similarly unsavory characters, is unlikely to contest control of Damascus and will likely focus on the SDF in northern Syria.
Assad’s retreat is a humiliating defeat for Iran, which has seen its proxy network shattered over the last few months. The Israel Defense Forces are slowly but surely grinding down Hamas. Israel’s intelligence services penetrated nearly every level of Hezbollah, ensuring one of the most successful clandestine operations in modern history. And, now, in Syria another Iranian proxy goes down without much of a fight.
CELEBRATING ASSAD’S DOWNFALL should not distract us from what comes next. The U.S. intelligence community should be working around the clock trying to identify and secure Assad’s chemical weapons. With this likely in mind, the Israeli Air Force conducted targeted strikes against suspected chemical weapons storage. Assad used chlorine and sarin repeatedly during the Syrian civil war. Following a particularly horrible sarin attack in Ghouta in 2013, Assad agreed to eradicate his chemical weapons program, but inspections never materialized.
Should HTS get those stockpiles first, who knows which radical terrorist group will acquire them. They could pass them off to the highest bidder or use them against the Syrian people.
Despite HTS’s sordid history, the United Kingdom is reportedly considering removing its label as a terrorist group. It’s worth noting, though, that some of the people now encouraging Western governments to play nice with HTS are the same people who a few years ago thought it was a good idea to negotiate with the Taliban in Afghanistan.
For at least fifteen years, American presidents of both parties have promised to get out of the Middle East. On Sunday, President-elect Donald Trump again pledged to end the “forever wars.” He may be the fifth president in a row—counting himself in his first term—to learn that the Middle East has a way of demanding attention.
HTS is not a rebel group. They aren’t freedom fighters. They’re a radical Sunni Islamic terrorist group. They now join the Taliban as running a de facto terror state. The “forever wars” are unlikely to end soon.
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