Back to 1968?
Back to 1968?
Plus: New York judge warns Trump that further violations of his gag order may mean jail time.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is shooting her shot, forging ahead with her doomed crusade to oust House Speaker Mike Johnson. “I think the American people need to see a recorded vote,” she said moments ago from the steps of the Capitol. “Does members of Congress support the Uniparty?”
MTG achieved her current level of notoriety by channeling her party’s undiluted id, but surprisingly, she’s way out on an island here: Donald Trump and the RNC have stood by their speaker, while even House Democrats have pledged to stop another motion-to-vacate sideshow in its tracks. Nevertheless, Greene says she’ll force a vote next week. Happy Wednesday.
Back to 1968?
On Tuesday, April 30, 1968, New York City police cleared Columbia University’s Hamilton Hall of student protesters.
Last night, fifty-six years later to the day, police cleared Hamilton Hall of protestors once again.
History doesn’t repeat itself, and all that—but this is a bit on the nose.
Over three months later, on August 26, 1968, the Democratic party’s national convention assembled in Chicago, and in scenes of riots and disorder, nominated as the party’s candidate a long-time senator and the incumbent vice president, Hubert Humphrey.
This year the Democratic convention will come to order on August 19, in Chicago. It will nominate a long-time senator, the former vice president and incumbent president, Joe Biden.
In 1968, the Republican party voted to put on their national ticket—for an unprecedented fourth time—Richard Nixon. This capped a remarkable political comeback. After Nixon had not only lost the presidential race in 1960 but the California governorship in 1962, he was widely supposed to be finished.
This year the Republicans will nominate for president, for an unprecedented third time in succession, Donald Trump. This will cap a remarkable political comeback. After Trump not only lost the presidential race in 2020 but failed in his attempt afterwards to overturn the results, he was widely supposed to be finished.
The tone of the two nominees’ acceptance speeches in 1968 was very different.
At the Republican nomination, the candidate said:
As we look at America, we see cities enveloped in smoke and flame.
We hear sirens in the night . . . And as we see and hear these things, millions of Americans cry out in anguish. Listen to . . . the voice of the great majority of Americans . . . They are not racists or sick; they are not guilty of the crime that plagues the land . . . Let us have order in America . . . My fellow Americans, the long, dark night for America is about to end.
At the Democratic convention, after four days of tumult and disorder, the Democratic nominee spoke in a different vein:
And may we just share for a moment a few of those immortal words of the prayer of St. Francis of Assisi, words which I think may help heal the wounds, ease the pain and lift our hearts.
Listen to this immortal saint: “Where there is hatred, let me know love. Where there is injury, pardon. Where there is doubt, faith. Where there is despair, hope. Where there is darkness, light.”
Those are the words of a saint. And may those of us of less purity listen to them well . . . I accept your nomination in this spirit.
On election day, November 5, 1968, after a hard-fought campaign between a decent man who couldn’t quite overcome the burdens of incumbency and an effective and experienced, if not particularly well-liked, challenger who could appeal to the public’s sense of national disarray, Richard Nixon prevailed by 0.7 percent of the popular vote, with 43.4 percent to Hubert Humphrey’s 42.7 percent. A third party candidate took 13.5 percent of the vote. Nixon won 301 electoral votes.
We don’t know what will happen this November 5. But right now, according to the polling averages at FiveThirtyEight, Trump leads Biden by 0.7 percent of the popular vote, 41.5 percent to 40.8 percent. A third-party candidate is taking 10.6 percent of the vote. If the election were held today, Trump could well end up with 302 electoral votes.
Finally: 1968 turned out to be an inflection point in our presidential elections. Nixon’s victory marked the beginning of an era of Republican dominance of the presidency, as the GOP only lost once in the next twenty-four years. Democrats had won seven of the preceding nine presidential elections.
Entering 2024, the Democratic candidate has won the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections. A Republican victory in November could also be a historic inflection point.
OK, OK. Enough already, you say quite sensibly. There are a million differences between 1968 and 2024. It’s a different world. It’s a different country. I mean, next you’re going to tell me that this year’s favorite in the NBA playoffs, the Boston Celtics, won the championship way back in 1968. . . . What’s that? They did?
—William Kristol
Merchan Warns Trump: There’s More Where That Came From
“We’re only days into Trump’s New York trial,” we wrote last week, “but you can already see the ordinary protocols of the justice system creaking from the strain of trying to contain him.” Judge Juan Merchan was facing the unenviable task of figuring out how to use the limited toolkit of his contempt-of-court discretion to enforce a gag order on the World’s Most Ungaggable Man.
Yesterday, Merchan issued a ruling holding Trump in contempt for nine violations of that order, issuing him a fine of $1,000 for each. In his ruling, he noted this was the maximum financial penalty under the law, but that this penalty likely fell far short of being a sufficient curb in this case:
While $1,000 may suffice in most instances to protect the dignity of the judicial system, to compel respect for its mandates and to punish the offender for disobeying a court order, it unfortunately will not achieve the desired result in those instances where the contemnor can easily afford such a fine. In those circumstances, it would be preferable if the Court could impose a fine more commensurate with the wealth of the contemnor. In some cases that might be a $2,500 fine, in other cases it might be a fine of $150,000. Because this Court is not cloaked with such discretion, it must therefore consider whether in some instances, jail may be a necessary punishment.
While Merchan’s legal clerks could step up their proofreading game (get that comma splice out of there, gang!), the judge’s ruling here was prudent: Frankly acknowledging that a financial penalty alone is barely a slap on the wrist for Trump and giving him plenty of advance warning that further violations of the gag order could result in jail time now.
For now, Trump is complying: He deleted the posts that resulted in the contempt fines yesterday, and has—so far—refrained from further posts attacking jurors or court staff. (A post yesterday whining that Merchan was “rigged, crooked, and above all, and without question, CONFLICTED” seems not to run afoul of the order.) We’ll see how long his continence lasts.
—Andrew Egger
Catching up . . .
Biden plans to reclassify marijuana, ease restrictions nationwide: NBC News
Six-week abortion ban takes effect in Florida, curbing access across the South: NPR
UCLA calls in police as clashes escalate at campuses: New York Times
Threats, harassment of election workers has risen, poll shows: Politico
Israel-Hamas deal is only hope for Biden’s Middle East strategy: Axios
Netanyahu vows to invade Rafah '“with or without a deal” as ceasefire talks with Hamas continue: AP
Quick Hits
1. RNC to MTG: Stand Down
In yesterday’s Press Pass, Andrew (pinch-hitting for Joe Perticone) broke down the strategic lines of House Democrats’ plan to protect Speaker Mike Johnson should Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene follow through on her long-promised threat to try to oust him. By bear-hugging Johnson, Democrats will get to take credit for his survival and maybe drive new wedges between the speaker and his base.
For now, though, the MAGA establishment is still backing Johnson to the hilt. Politico reports this morning that Trump’s new handpicked RNC chair, Michael Whatley, met with Greene yesterday to tell her to call off the dogs:
Whatley, who is less than two months in the job, met with Greene in his office after she had skipped his briefing of House Republicans that morning, where he had emphasized the importance of party unity. He said much the same to Greene.
“He said, one, this is not helpful, and two, we want to expand and grow the majority in the House,” said a person familiar with Whatley’s message to Greene. “He was clear that any disruption to the conference on these efforts—including filing this [motion to vacate], does not help the case for party unity.”
Greene reportedly told Whatley she’d spoken to Trump by phone as well—and that he’d told her the same.
2. Sorry About All That
“Fox News appears to be taking Hunter Biden’s lawsuit threat quite seriously,” reports the Daily Beast:
The network has quietly pulled down its six-part “mock trial” series from its digital streaming service Fox Nation after lawyers for the presidential scion warned the network of their intention to sue for defamation.
Besides quietly taking down The Trial of Hunter Biden from its streamer, the network also deleted a promotional video promising Fox News viewers an “inside look” at the “mock trial,” which was presided over by former reality-TV star Judge Joe Brown.
The scrubbing of the series, which debuted in October 2022, directly complies with the demand from Biden’s legal team—powerhouse celebrity law firm Geragos & Geragos—to delete the content immediately.
A Fox News spokesperson confirmed in a statement to The Daily Beast that the special had been removed from the service following the complaint. “This program was produced in and has been available since 2022. We are reviewing the concerns that have just been raised and—out of an abundance of caution in the interim—have taken it down,” the statement read.
Cheap Shots
Cheap Shot Caption Idea:
Intifada? More like INTIFASHION.
We must learn from history and elect Humphrey, not Nixon, this time. Do not let the tragedy of '68 become the farce of '24.