Donald Trump collaborated with a slimy crew to break the law, and it may have swung the 2016 election. Russia's election interference was troubling—and so is the National Enquirer's. And the deranged response from MAGA goons to his conviction only shows how much Trumpworld operates like an organized crime syndicate. Ben Wittes and Ron Filipkowski join Tim Miller for the weekend pod.
show notes
Sarah has said for a while that when Trump is not in the public eye his poll numbers increase, and when he returns the poll numbers drop. In light of this and Ron F’s mention of listening to every public performance from Trump for years, could the Bulwark start a new podcast that just plays (without comment other than date of comments) Trump speeches, interviews, etc? This way folks from all sides can tune in at any time and hear him. Episodes need to be created chronologically, so folks can experience deterioration and increasing crazy..
For those who denigrate the serioiusness of this case, I would point out that the way they got Al Capone was on income taxes.
Also, Trump operates like a mob boss, another parallel. Elie Honig's Untouchable: How Powerful People Get Away With It documents this very well https://www.washingtonpost.com/books/2023/02/01/untouchable-review-honig-powerful-people/
Brian Kemp HAS endorsed Trump. His game plan is obvious. He signed another voter suppression law last month that was passed without any input from Brian Raffensperger’s office.
I finally got around to listening to former President Trump's Friday post-conviction press conference today. I actually thought it had a great, strong opening - "if they can do this to me, they can do this to anyone." I stopped it right there and thought "Yes! Yes! You're exactly right! I hope to God if I ever do anything as remotely criminal as you have done, that our system of justice will treat me just as fairly regardless of my wealth and power, in the egalitarian manner that our Founders intended when they established the Constitution that we all still agree to live by." I should have stayed stopped, since that obviously wasn't what he meant, and it all went down hill from there. How flooded is the zone when a former President of the United States (or anyone for that matter) can utter the words that his witnesses in his trial were "literally crucified" and that doesn't get reported anywhere - literally...crucified...bringing to mind not only images of Jesus, but of Spartacus and his followers, lining the Appian Way. Trump made the comments like he had legions of witnesses standing by to testify on his behalf, yet all he talked about were Costello and the FEC Chair (who they decided not to call) and...oh, wait, that's it. I guess the paralegal who testified for the defense somehow escaped the fate of literal crucifixtion.
I am almost positive that I read/heard/saw this general analogy from some columnist or commentator but I honestly can’t remember where so I apologize in advance for failure to make proper attribution. When I was a kid I watched the Academy Awards because we only had a few channels and there wasn’t much else on TV on Sunday during that time of the year. One year Kathryn Hepburn and Henry Ford both won Oscars for some movie they co-starred in during their older years. The critics all seemed to agree that while neither of them deserved the award for their performance in that particular movie, they nevertheless applauded it because they were both great actors with illustrious careers who had been snubbed on other occasions. It was kind of a life time achievement award.
I have a similar reaction to Trump. I have huge problems with both the civil action against Trump on supposed banking violations and the Bragg criminal case. My hesitations and doubts are pretty much the same as those expressed by other commentators so I won’t detail them here. Both prosecutions are politically motivated and would not have been brought against anybody other than Trump. That should give us a little pause. We don’t want Trump anywhere near power because he might use the power of office against his political enemies. So we use the power of government in the form of highly selective prosecution against Trump to undermine his chances of re-election?
That being said I can’t generate much sympathy for Trump. This particular felony conviction MIGHT be bogus but it’s a lifetime achievement conviction for all of the other times he has slithered out of legal responsibility for sexually assaulting women, reneging on contracts from small businesses, deceiving investors ………………oh, and, almost incidentally, inviting a mob to storm the congress.
Just be careful guys. Go ahead and have a glass of champagne, but we don’t know how this will ultimately play out. Trump’s die hard supporters are going to cry holy murder no matter which crime he is convicted for (and the documents case is absolutely clear cut) but they do have some legitimate concerns on the Bragg case. Trump will always be a whiner, but let’s not make him a sympathetic martyr.
Tim, Listen to Ralph Nader Radio Hour. Guest was Professor N. STEVEN FISH who just purchased the book , "ROUTING TRUMPISM, RECLAIMING THE NATION, AND RESTORING DEMOCRACY'S EDGE". He explains how Trump is better at projecting strength and dominance. This UC Berkeley professor would make a great guest on The Bulwark.
Tim, it's so much fun watching you on YouTube in these pods: you're like a little kid at C'mas! Hey, we've got a celebrate victory when we can, huhn? It doesn't happen often.
There are innumerable adjectives that can be used to describe the typical MAGA base supporter, but the one that seems most apt is meanness. There has probably never been a more mean-spirited collection of individuals associated with a political movement in all of human history.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFQLktl21aM - British tourist STUNNED by how dumb Trump supporters are
Megan Kelly et al are well aware of the lack of intellect among the MAGA faithful. She has no chance of ever becoming “mainstream” but she def has a good chance of being welcomed back i to Trump’s fold and when you lack all integrity (and she does)…….pedal to the medal baby!
I think the real reason Trump wanted a change in venue is not because "NY is all Democrat and hates me" is because NYers D and R alike have had his number for 40 years+ and his father's before that so thet had no problem treating him "just like any other defendant" - there was no awe.
Admittedly, whenever people I deeply respect warn against celebration and remind us that this is a sad day for America, I agree and feel sheepish for a few minutes. But, Tim, you wear shadenfreude with such style. How can something that feels so right be so wrong?
One element that we shouldn't look past is that these jurors made their decisions based SOLELY on the testimony and evidence. No internet, no news, no propaganda, just facts. When you clear all of the noise and deflections and distractions away and let the facts speak for themselves, it's amazing how clear the decision becomes.
This edition of Decency and Sense references an incumbent state representative in Colorado. The phenomenon is of course prevalent among Republican office holders at all levels of government across the country.
A brief excerpt appears below the link. Click through for the damning case.
.
https://decencyandsense.substack.com/p/decency-sense-and-the-maximum-felon
*****This past Friday, a jury convicted the 45th president of having falsified business records as part of a scheme just before the 2016 election to prevent the revelation of an alleged 2006 sexual encounter with a porn star. That night, the current representative of Colorado House District 39 registered her objection to the verdict by changing her official Facebook profile picture to an inverted United States flag – the sign of distress that some of the January 6 insurrectionists carried as they rallied outside the Capitol and assaulted police to gain unlawful entry. After a Facebook user commented enthusiasm for her adoption of the symbol, she replied with an image that stated, “I am more MAGA now than ever.”
This response is puzzling. Over the last several years the civil and criminal justice systems have made abundantly clear what a loathsome individual the 45th president is. His felony conviction is only the latest official legal marker of his turpitude.
Consider some recent developments.
[...]
I am confident that the decent and sensible people in House District 39 who oppose the 45th president outnumber those who, for whatever reasons, thirst for his restoration. Perhaps someday – perhaps in retrospect – the current representative of House District 39 will reconsider her own position.*****
😆Community: when you are inclined to think how bad things are ....shed a tear for me on the cusp of Mike Johnsons and Julia Letlows distracts in rabid Maga North Louisiana. 😆
Shoot this podcast into my veins. Thanks, Tim!
Tim if you happen to read this and will take a suggestion from a 'rando' person, the Louisiana Illuminator has good coverage of Louisiana politics. Just FYI. I know it's not your focus but Louisiana has atypical MAGA in the way Jeff Landry is going for it all...all the power consolidated under his thumb.
Ace Frehley? I’d have gone with Lou Reed, but man, props for the deep cut.
OoooOOooOooo!!! Love the outro music today, man.
Question for Tim, Sarah and JVL....AND the community. So, for those of us who want to contribute MEANINGFULLY to efforts to defeat Trump...where to direct our campaign dollars? Who is doing the best job of reaching "gettable" voters? Who is spending wisely on the most effective platforms? Who is doing a superior job of messaging?
Lauren, I researched the same question and found a group that is helping people like us direct money to precisely these efforts. Please private message me through Substack, and I'd be delighted to share with you. This group avoids social media publicity for various reasons. As it turns out, there is a Zoom meeting/opportunity to learn more tomorrow, Monday, June 3 and I can get you the specifics. Warm invitation is open to anyone who reads this.
It is essential to be strategic in precisely the ways you suggest with your questions.
To be clear, also a fan of RVAT!
I really hope you get some helpful replies. I've only made one donation so far, and it was to Sarah's super PAC - RVAT. My thought was that she knows the voters better than anyone in the country, and IMO knows how most effectively to target the "persuadables." (Oh, and FYI: I'm a lifelong Dem.)
Well, we are definitely like of mind and action! I have also donated to Sarah’s PAC and feel strongly about her voter knowledge and instincts. I am a focus groupie, for true… and keep hoping that with all the media exposure and attention she’s now receiving, that someone in the Dems comm circle will realize what an asset she could be!!
I can't for the life of me figure out why the Biden campaign didn't recruit Sarah months ago. It's a no-brainer!
Look, everyone in polls say, they are doing ok to great but in the next state over or the national arena the economy is going to the dogs. So if you get people from each state saying that the next state over is cratering, after 50 states a body is left wondering maybe they ought to move to the next state over. As JVL has pointed out over and over again, the stats for the macro are really good. So people are rightly pissed off about food and fuel prices, I'm on a fixed income and have no dependents and limited "assets", and I'm not actually giddy but ain't sunk yet. All the sturm and drang about people on the MAGA crew rising up and creating havoc when those folks are trying to raise a family, pay the mortgage or rent, seeing the consequences of their buds after the Capital insurrection, I would posit that outside of a few "lone wolf" types, a general up rising is not on the cards. Germany in the late thirties was a whole different situation. "Democracy" or their version of it was new. The economy was in shambles, for a lot of reasons, and Hitler understood the mood and took advantage of it and won for a time. The "Brown Shirts" were his on the ground enforcers getting him to power, but the "American" wanna be's, read MAGA diehards, forget about the "Night of the Long Knives".
I think that Trump, C.F. (Convicted Felon) should get an orange onesy and be introduced to a regimen that military folks are familiar with. He would benefit from it and might get some well needed counseling. The justice system, as folks here have repeatedly said, has worked and the Law Enforcement Officers on all levels will work too so I'm not too worried about people from the next town over, who don't know me, trying to make a colander of my physique.
It ain't boring times!
Once again, Mike "Wally Cox" Johnson shows his absolute ignorance by asking the federal Supreme Court to step into interfering into the a State criminal trial.
He claims that two SCOTUS jurists are concerned with the Trump trial...guess which two they were.
Unfortunately I live less than an hour from his distract. I received a Biden sticker for a donation in 2019 and laughed because it is so MAGA here I would have done nothing but maybe gather info for a study on how many flat tires and key scratches a vehicle can endure.
Matto, you are a judicious man under your circumstances.
I live in Indiana and my MAGA congress person, not only called the trial a "scam" (think he meant sham), but called the judge "a piece of shit).
So much for his support touting his cred for being a law and order sort of guy.
Bagh! Nobody is grappling with the real problem with this prosecution. It is a legal, not a factual weakness. What does Ben think about the strength of the prosecution’s case that this is a felony because done to conceal a second crime, when that second crime has not been prosecuted? That has always been seen as a weakness and as far as I can tell, this has not changed!
Here's a good summary from Lawfare (the publication Ben Wittes) works for
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/charting-the-legal-theory-behind-people-v.-trump
That IS good.
So in essence, NY law says:
“A person is guilty of falsifying business records in the first degree when he commits the crime of falsifying business records in the second degree, and when his intent to defraud includes AN INTENT to commit another crime or to aid or conceal the commission thereof”
The all caps is mine, showing the heart of the controversy. On its face, the law says Trump only has to intend to commit another crime, not actually commit it or be proven to commit it. But is that right? Merchan ruled yes:
Merchan clarified that § 175.10 “does not require that the ‘other crime’ actually be committed”—“all that is required is that defendant … acted with a conscious aim and objective to commit another crime.”
Our legal eagles on these podcasts should start by clearly explaining this, then describe whether they think it’s a novel theory, a sound theory, or a bogus theory. They should talk about whether Merchan’s ruling is a correct interpretation of NY law and if it is, whether that NY law is sound.
Doesn't matter, it's a weird staple of NY business fraud law. The second crime doesn't need to be adjudicated, just used to show the reason the initial fraud was committed. If the jury buys into the reason, the business fraud charges become felonies.
It might be an intellectual weakness (and one could agrue a moral weakness) but it's pretty covered under New York precedent. New York *charges* about 1000 Class E felonies a year and it's decently frequent that it's only the classified business records that are charged
(* Orginally said prosecuted but that's not right very, very few make it to trial as most plead out)
If it's intellectual weakness, it is a weakness of the law as written and therefore it's up to the legislature to "fix" it. The DA is using what the law offers.
What a great double headers today. Ben is always a pleasure and I thank Ron for monitoring all the MAGA nutters so I don’t have to.
I certainly won’t put it past Ken Paxton to do something crazy.
nice
Ron was truly a treat with his broad range of info about the bat-shit crazy MAGAt podcasts.
I commend my former governor, Larry Hogan, for his statement. My views are volatile, but I do not believe I can bring myself to vote for anyone sticking with the Republican party at this point. I wish he had run as an independent.
Update on Pence from Fox:
"The conviction of former President Trump on politically motivated charges is an outrage and disservice to the nation," Pence told Fox News Digital.
"No one is above the law, but our courts must not become a tool to be used against political opponents," Pence continued. "To millions of Americans, this was nothing more than a political prosecution driven by a Manhattan DA who ran for office on a pledge to indict the former president and this conviction undermines confidence in our system of justice."
Oh well.
(at about 45:33) - Tim says "you know there were like seven people on Twitter last night that are like now I've never voted for Trump before and now I am" The "Free" Press found them: https://www.thefp.com/p/theyre-voting-for-trump-to-save-democracy . I can't get inside their heads, but they're out there.
I'm not a lawyer, but I've seen anti-Trump lawyers on both sides of this case. Elie Honig ("Few if any people in American history have flouted the law in as many ways, over as many years, in as public a manner as Trump has" sez EH in his book) thinks the case sucks: https://cafe.com/elies-note/donald-trump-manhattan-da-case-jury-guilty-verdict/ I certainly hope it either holds up on appeal or that we have convictions on the more straightforward cases before any judgment on the appeal. And that enough people vote for Biden that the other cases _can_ continue ('cuz they certainly wouldn't continue under a 2nd Trump administration and Project 2025).
Yeah, I've heard both sides. I was expecting a hung jury. Mona expressed her skepticism of the case very well one Friday during her show. I keep coming back to Merrick Garland and his half-measures dealing with the ongoing 1/6 crime. I'm still mad Biden is running in the first place. But he is, the NY verdict is what it is, and Garland's delay means we're done with court cases before the election. I'm going to take Larry Hogan's advice and respect the jury's decision. I'm also going to try to enjoy the hell out of this summer. This may be the last hurrah for a while. The U.S. of A. is going to pivot away from its historic trajectory. Our leaders should have pulled out all the stops to defend the Constitution. The Republicans may have heinously betrayed this great nation, but the Democrats failed to defend it. Even if we miraculously dodge a bullet in November, the damage thus far is already too immense to repair in my lifetime.
We need a consensual reality to have a functioning democracy. People don't agree on what's real right now. OK, all of us never agree perfectly, and the differences are exaggerated by the extremes being most vocal, but I really feel like we don't have enough of a shared view right now to operate effectively. The dehumanization of each side by the other (and the dehumanization of adversaries outside the country and non-citizens within the country) is particularly worrisome to me, as is the temptation to dehumanize the dehumanizers.
Agree on the lack of a shared reality. Unclear about dehumanization. The MAGAs are presenting a domestic threat to the Constitution. I may need to dehumanize them in order to truly defend it.
Once a simplistic, sychophant tool, faux Christian, always the same.
Rocks-in-his-head Pence had the easy off-ramp to wait and see the outcome of the appeals courts (NYS has two levels like the feds - Appealate Court 11 members, and Court of Appeals with 5 members.
Come back in three years Mannequin Mike and claim the case is political when they have made their decisions.
Sigh. Dear Mike, to millions more people this was a crime committed by Donald Trump to save his ass in the 2016 election. Oh, but that election elected you too. Double sigh.
Well, Pence is going to do Pence.
Never knew Tim was a Mets fan (j/k).
Better them than the Yankees!
As a Mets fan, I couldn’t agree more.
Here’s the regular pod playlist for the weekend.
https://music.apple.com/us/playlist/bulwark-pod-songs/pl.u-0embfxV15e
I know it was all tea leaves & scuttlebutt from Trump's legal team, but there's a real possibility that somebody who was really happy to see JD Vance said "Guilty" 34 times in a row. I'm in my 30s and I want to read that guy's book in 40 years.
Also the probation officer's tell all.
Maybe the J.D. Vance juror just likes him some drama. (My head cannon has him as a big fan of Bravo)
Or even possibly a Republican voter but took his oath to base his decision on the facts seriously.
Thanks, Tim! The playlist is fabulous. The David Frum quote is a 'chef's kiss'. Great week on the podcast.
Time now to goad Trump relentlessly. Let him self-destruct.
Tim, SandyG from Santa Monica here. PLEASE get political psychologist Karen Stenner on your podcast. She studies the authoritarian disposition (https://www.karenstenner.com/).
Here are some additional resources for you:
- https://9bb6f4fe-ee8e-4700-aaa9-743a55a9437a.filesusr.com/ugd/02ff25_4bcacf94ef1d4514a98a58c178ebd7be.pdf
- https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/11/capitol-insurrection-trump-authoritarianism-psychology-innate-fear-envy-change-diversity-populism/#cookie_message_anchor
- https://psmag.com/news/authoritarianism-the-terrifying-trait-that-trump-triggers
- https://hopenothate.org.uk/2020/11/01/authoritarianism/
- https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2007.00586.x?ref=quillette.com
- https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/psych-unseen/202404/why-do-people-choose-authoritarianism-over-democracy?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email