We begin with a rejection of the fatalist rhetoric from the left. It may be an uphill battle, but the pro-democracy forces have to keep our morale up and be creative. Also the debate around political rhetoric after the assassination attempt is way out ahead of the facts and needs some context. Plus, the Republican convention, Aileen Cannon’s ludicrous dismissal, Axios’ credulous report on Trump’s new tone, and the VP pick. Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.
We’re heading to Dallas on September 5 for An Evening with The Bulwark. For more information and tickets go to TheBulwark.com/events.
show notes:
If President Biden isn’t up to performing the job, what in hell is he doing now? His f’ing job. Funny no one notices that Joe Biden is busy doing the job of President now!
I think it is also because of the lack of enthusiasm for him, and the risk of low voter turnout and how that impacts Biden and down ballot candidates. His team has shown little desire to counter the message from right and the campaign is limping at best. Job performance is not the point
You maybe onto something
https://open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark/p/the-only-thing-trump-should-say-right-now-is-im-sorry?r=8l5v7&utm_medium=ios Damn shame he didn’t, because of him we are where we are today. There wouldn’t be a dead father, two seriously wounded and thump’s ear grazed. He continues to play golf and ignore the chaos he churns around him like he did when hundreds of thousands were dying of Covid-he’s actually a blithering idiot that can’t see past his temper tantrum toddler ego. His battle cry ’All for Me and Me for Me’.
Thank you for giving me motivation to finally cancel my subscription to The Bulwark. It has been a fun ride. Frankly, the quality of the content hit a nice peak early this summer.. You guys worked hard and gave me a lot of what I wanted... but now, because you've had a bad few weeks, I think you need to be replaced.
With what, exactly?
Violence is unacceptable—concur
Let this race be a VP race instead of the presidents. Let the two old guys, one bumbling and nice, the other headstrong and bat-shit crazy and out for himself, Uh, I mean Unity, as in unitary executive, be figure heads for the next 120 days.
Then let Kamala Harris, a bulldog prosecutor and vibrant and effective speaker, go after JD Vance and kick him in the nuts on all the 2025 policies he is so blatantly transparent and articulate about now that he has sucked DJT’s teat and prostituted himself.
This race is not about Trump/Biden, but about the next generation of leadership, so let the VPs be the ones to duke it out. I have no doubt KH can take on JD fancy pants Vance because he has been clear about what he now stands for and these are highly charged and easily debated topics, with facts. No more mealy-mouthed 45 bumbling about where he and his vague base he constantly refers to stand. I don’t see any down side to letting the President be his best good cop and KH be the bad cop.
Don’t change the Democratic ticket. Voters want to see some ass-kicking and a plan and I believe they will respond to KH in this role. It is a win-win. Keep the ticket and that momentum intact and bump up the Democratic front-runner’s numbers by filling in from below.
August 13th JD. Be there. Wear a cup.
Talk me out of it.
I'm not resigned to defeat either, but to me that means being willing to accept what seems so painfully obvious: neither President Biden nor VP Harris possess the powers of persuasion necessary to pull off a comeback win. I believe it's past time to quit treating Biden with kid gloves. The path he is on is selfish to the point of narcissistic. He must be confronted in blunt terms by anyone with influence over him that he is betraying the trust placed in him when he was elevated to the office he sought for decades. The people don't owe him; he owes the people. He must release his delegates to vote their consciences. If nothing else matters to him, he needs to understand that his legacy depends on that.
Does it ever occur to people who think this , that he could actually believe he can do it, and does think he is the best one to do so?
WHy does he have to have ulterior motives, and since you aren't in his how do you know that is what he thinks?
Yes, many say that Biden truly believes he is the best bet to defeat Trumpism, just as many insist that Trump truly believes the 2020 election was stolen. To be honest, I don't care. Neither of those beliefs is reasonable, and the future of the country counts infinitely more than being solicitous of the delusions of two people.
You to you and I will do me, that way we remain civil and don't have to argue about it.
I really am tired of the fighting and the uncivility.
It is exhausting and unhealthy
Great show. Always love your music choice Tim but this was the best. Love The Cranberries - perfect message
Look, here's the worst news: because ... voters WANT THIS. Yes! From the Detroit Free Press: Quoting Mike Rogers, MI GOP Senate hopeful: "Pointing to Vance’s humble beginnings in southern Ohio, recalled in the 2016 book "Hillbilly Elegy," a bestselling memoir by Vance, Rogers said the vice presidential pick "understands firsthand what the high cost of groceries, gas, and rent do to a struggling working family." Vance, who served as a Marine and earned a law school degree from Yale before winning a U.S. Senate seat two years ago, is 39 years old. " And this: ""Congrats to J.D. Vance on joining the Trump ticket, " U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton, added on X. "J.D. is a fighter, veteran, and understands the concerns of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin. United, we’re going to Make America Great Once Again!" And immigration: People are afraid of the southern border issues and how it washes up in Michigan. People are likewise tired of the Gaza rhetoric. People -- voters -- WANT the simple solution. Withdraw from the world and go back to big trucks and coal-fired electric plants, in a world where Black people know their place and women make babies not decisions about nuclear warfare (ie, President Harris). Enough foreign melodrama. The insidious untruth is that pulling out of the world will make the US safer, will cut US taxes, will bring down prices. Well, I guess we'll see.
He is my Senator he doesn't understand many of us here
It will be interesting to see real MAGA response to Vance. Yale Law degree, married to the child of immigrants who also went to Yale for 2 degrees, worked with mega bucks finance, then US Senate. Looks like an "elite." Will they care he came from a poor, broken family?
MAGA wants people that articulate its real and imagined grievances, Vance fits that bill. They could care less about his pedigree, his wife or anything else. They want the US out of supporting Ukraine, Vance gives them that. They want reassurance that they were right in believing the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. Vance does that. Etc., Etc.
But Vance has two "tribal IDs" that will (IMO) have bigger street weight in a fight: he's a Marine and he's Catholic. And Catholics are big players in the national stage these days. A Marine will know leadership as well as small arms and fire team tactics. He's a big card to play.
Evangelicals don’t believe Catholics are Christians.
The Church is less popular than it’s ever been.
His wife is not white. She has an actual job and wears shoes and isn’t pregnant and they probably order in more than she cooks. He just stopped wearing his wedding band because Trump doesn’t like them.
My generation (very, very, very old—God said “Let there be light” and we hit the switch old) respects military service because our fathers and grandfathers were in WWII or Korea. Since the end of the draft I don’t know if the military has much relevance to young people outside of those whose families include military. It just feels like from younger Boomers (I’m 66) down that sacrifice for the greater good is meaningless. It’s the only thing I respect about Vance.
He’s just revolting.
Does the Evangelical wing like Catholics? I simply don't know about this aspect. He was a journalist. Except for basic training did he get out of the Green Zone?
They do not. They don’t think they’re Christians.
He was a combat correspondent and deployed for six months. That sounds like an FOB job, but if he’s a combat vet that merits respect even from my Vance-hating self.
He certainly talks the Marine line: "Vance’s single chapter on his time in the Marines is peppered with similiar stories of moral and personal growth....
“When I joined the Marine Corps, I did so in part because I wasn’t ready for adulthood,” Vance writes. “I didn’t know how to balance a checkbook, much less how to complete the financial aid forms for college. Now I knew exactly what I wanted out of my life and how to get there.” (source https://taskandpurpose.com/news/jd-vance-marine-veteran/) As for Catholics and Ev. Protestants: they join hands against abortion and uppity women.
I'm so sorry to put this here but I have not been able to find a resolution to my issue in the substack help (or anywhere else) so I thought I'd see if anyone here might know. I am no longer able to see these videos on either my Windows PC or Android phone. I can hear audio, but there is no option to turn on video anymore. Other Bulwark podcasts have this option (camera icon on the left hand side) and I can see them just fine. The problem is only with the flagship pod hosted by Tim. Thank you for any suggestions.
I know it's confusing since that feature exists for other shows, but if you go back in the archives, you'll notice that we haven't done this for the flagship podcast yet. The video side of things is incredibly resource intensive and folks do expect a consistent and timely posting. We are working on it!
Thank you VERY much, Jim. I know I said I am 'no longer able to see' this video, suggesting I used to be able to. Considering your answer, I was obviously never able to. I may have been confusing my YouTube viewing with my Bulwark page viewing. I appreciate your patience and kind response.
My apologies in advance for this rambling post, but I want to get some of this off my chest and this seems like a good place to do it. I think many of us are scared and worried and trying to protect ourselves. I do not think it is productive to conclude that anyone not doing what you, yourself, think should be done, is because of malice or arrogance or cynicism when there is not a lot of evidence to conclude that (or maybe even if there is). If an elected official, on background, says they are 'resigned to a Trump presidency', that does not have to be chalked up to cynicism or glee. It could be (and in my opinion, is more likely to be) a sign of being beaten down, demoralized, exhausted, which, let's not forget is part of the authoritarian playbook. It could be a way to protect a very battered psyche, like it is for me (and I also think for JVL, who, let's not forget, more or less told us a year or so ago that Trump was inevitable and we should all start mourning and coming to terms with that together, which is fine. I do not begrudge JVL for any of his opinions--he appears to me to be a very smart guy and an eloquent and thoughtful writer).
Biden is most likely to be the nominee, but even with that, this does not have to mean this is lost. I may be of the opinion myself that Biden should step aside, but even with polling data (which I do not deny), it is not clear to me that that is the right answer. I know that people like to think that all of this can be predicted if we just have all the right information. Some are saying they know what is going to happen. Many are saying they 'know they are right' even if they 'hope they are wrong'. And, it seems, most at this point, are looking for who to blame and that blame is falling on Biden and the Democrats (recency bias?). Some are downright giddy in this moment and self-congratulatory (listen to Ross Douthat on a recent Matters of Opinion podcast, which I think it a pretty shitty podcast, if I am being honest. It is palpable how excited Ross is to moralize and consider himself vindicated and so darn righteous in his upcoming vote for Trump (or maybe he is going to write in a dead person, I don't know, but it's the same thing). The debate was a shock, but the idea that that is so much more disqualifying for Biden than ALL the things Trump has said and done---well, that is what is demoralizing to me. The mocking and belittling of the many people who disagree that Biden should step aside--and indeed, the belittling of even those who say they are unsure and don't know the right thing to do or that it is not inevitable that Biden will lose-- is also demoralizing.
At this point, we need to deal with the reality we are in and recognize that none of us has a crystal ball or perfect data (this is not a Math proof) and redouble our efforts, individually and collectively, to do what we think is right while never losing our humanity, and not succumbing to hubris by refusing to reflect or think critically. We must recognize our biases that none of us are immune to no matter how smart or right we all think we are. The bottom line is we are human and humans are not really all that good at this shit. Peace and love to you all.
If I could upvote this a 100 times I would...you are not alone with this view if that helps
“ The debate was a shock, but the idea that that is so much more disqualifying for Biden than ALL the things Trump has said and done---well, that is what is demoralizing to me.”
my hope, perhaps belief, is that this will be where many who are not MAGA diehards election day. i think i was saying it before i encountered simon rosenberg’s calling attention to it, but voting is a very different thing from answering a pollster’s questions.
but, as a friend mine is constantly saying, god help us.
Simon Rosenberg is one of the good guys and the evidence I see is that he is working his butt off, too.
Absolutely perfect.
Thank you for Bonnie for your beautiful letter. You are heard. You are part of the solution. May we all be comforted and inspired by your brave words.
Tim your podcast title the day before Trump got shot was “Life or Death”
If you’re not “resigned to it”, then how do you plan to stop it? This country loves Christians and nationalists. Look at Palin in 2008.
Palin lost…?
True but the dumbo blue collar loved her
Anyone thinking Trump has mellowed after his ear was grazed should see the photo taken right after “the” official merch shot with his SS agents under the flag. It shows him smiling big at how cool his photo op shot turned out. He is thrilled! All that stopping his SS to stick his head up and his fist in the air to make sure it was all on video while his protectors tried to keep themselves, their arms and their own heads blocking him from more bullets was completely shocking! Then he had to get the photo op for monetizing the event of course. Think of the merch he can sell! And that last photo showing how pleased he was that his bloody ear photo shot turned out so perfect! Well, one can only wonder at the total disregard for the lives of his SS squad who had to put up with his self-glorifying photo op BS minutes after people were more seriously hurt after coming to see his show. What was it he said in that email just before the event? “All hell is going to break loose!”
Well, it did, but he got that photo op shot in spite of everything! Just, wow. Trump never ceases to amaze, does he?
I really must say that I never took Trump to be the kind of man who poked his head (and fist) up in an active shooting situation. Is that what adrenaline does to a person?
I believe Tim Miller in rather crude language said Trump is the luckiest man on earth.
There has been much discussion on the topic of Joe Biden’s possible replacement, should he decide not to run. I believe this is a new idea and hope that, if it has merit, it will be picked up by those who have influence on him.
Biden declines to accept the nomination but chooses Harris to run in his place.
Harris selects her VP , that person being whoever is most likely to help her win. No thought to be given for 2028. It might be someone who is not a politician. or even a centrist Republican. ANYONE who strengthens the ticket
KEY IS THIS: She and her VP make an iron-clad statement not to run for re-election in 2028.
The dems have an open field, as they should, for 2028. This should bring support from all future candidates, without their shooting at each other in a circular firing squad if there were to be an open primary right now.
And joe will get credit for making it possible for the first woman President.
The attempted assassination of Trump makes it all the more imperative to find a ticket with the absolute highest chances of defeating him, I believe
It's never a good idea to unilaterally disarm by declaring up front your self-imposed term limits. She would be a lame duck from the start and hampered because of it. Who knows? She might do a fine job and the party will want her to run again.
Ann, of course you make sense with Harris declaring one term but it is a small price to pay if this strategy might keep trump from being elected.
I’m with you, Tim! I refuse to see all this as a death sentence. We might feel overwhelmed, but I refuse to believe we are so exhausted that we cannot meet this moment with the resources and collective will to forge an extraordinary way forward these next few months. Maybe I’ve been taking Tai Chi too long, but I don’t feel knocked off center. I do see all the chaos as "opportunity in crisis.” The time is absolutely ripe for a well orchestrated risk and pivot. Our risk to take is not about extremism …it is about rebalancing and redirecting our energies to effectively meet and defeat the negative momentum the Republicans have amassed.
How can it be a bad idea to give voters a different choice? Polls are not facts, but they are DATA. Why not take that data and reframe our story now at a moment when we have this opportunity to take a risk that is supported by the desire of so many Americans for new leadership??? This chaos is the perfect moment to protect Biden’s legacy AND to be bold in a politically agile way that only a moment like this can offer.
The Republicans are serving up the toxic products of their long game. This is our chance to recover our balance by redirecting our energies and then forcing the Republicans to have to respond in a way they never anticipated…and respond to a party giving a majority of voters what they asked for all along: a different, sane, positive and powerful voice for leading new coalitions for a long game on our side of defending democracy.
I have an awful, sinking feeling about all of this. It's Monday night and everything is terrible. I am so thoroughly disappointed in my party for letting this happen. But you are right: we can't give up. There's 4 more months.
Left: Violence must be repudiated!
Right: Violence against our side must be repudiated!
Great conversation. This last few days have been brutal, but at least you two offer some hope.
I agree, Tim. We need to think in a new way and fast. I think what is frustrating me is that the people who can help make this happen (the Biden family, I'm hearing?) don't seem interested in helping to make this happen.
You are really killing it with the Bulwark Podcast, Tim! When you were on with Charlie on Fridays it was always my favorite episodes to listen to. Thank you for always being honest, sincere, passionate, appropriate and always right in your analyses. I love your closing theme music at the end of each show. You or whomever is picking the music is doing a great job with that. Thank goodness for The Bulwark, seriously!
God help us, Tim, you so nailed us Dems. "Come to terms with Trump" WTF??? I'm so ashamed of my political party.
Today the NY Times republished Ross Douthat's June 13, 2024 interview with JD Vance. Douthat comments that "[Vance] offered a combative (and, to my mind, fundamentally unsupported and unpersuasive) defense of Trump’s conduct after the 2020 election." Wow, when Ross calls Vance's defense of Trump unsupported and unpersuasive, you know it's bad.
Especially since Ross is just drooling to write in Savonarola or somebody.
What do you guys think about us marching on Washington, to demand that Biden exit the election and allow a younger candidate to take his place? If we are certain of Biden losing, isn't this our next step?
That’s not a step no matter what. It’s his decision, and our side doesn’t storm government buildings. That’s those other guys.
President Biden did reach out to the widow of the man killed but she declined to speak to him.
Sadly, if she's MAGA herself there's a good chance she believes the most extreme MAGA liars (like Collins and MTG) that Democrats were responsible for the attack or even that Biden himself gave the order.
Meanwhile, Trump never reached out to her at all, though he did have plenty of time and energy to golf.
He made the effort. I am increasingly angry that the punditry almost never mentions the fact that someone was killed. It's all about Trump, the attempt of his life, whether the shooter is a Democrat. Poor man and his family will be lost to history and feeling even more aggrieved than ever.
I had to turn off the Daily podcast yesterday because it was so ridiculous--they were so giddy about the photo, so self-congratulatory, and almost like they were becoming cult members themselves with their awe of Trump and his 'defiance.'
AOC called on the democrats who were resigned to a Trump second term to step down. I agree, we need all democrats to be in the fight
To his credit, Tim delicately and half heartedly brought up the possibility that some anti Trumpers may have gone a bit over the top on their apocalyptic predictions about a second Trump term and he didn’t exclude the Bulwark. Then he pretty much banished this thought. At various times I have heard people say that if re-elected Trump will (1) end democracy; (2) ensure that we never have another election; (3) he will be President for life; (3) there will be no more independent courts; (4) restore Jim Crow laws; (5) throw all homosexuals in jail; et al. Trump is dangerous, but I don’t believe any of this dystopian future any more than I thought Obama was a communist and wanted to replace the Constitution with Sharia law. The latest issue of the New Republic showed Trump as Hitler. If you really, really, truly believe this, and don’t think our 250 year history of constitutional guardrails and checks and balances will protect us, then the assassination of Trump is both logical and moral. But you don’t really think this, so yeah, cut back on the rhetoric because you may actually convince some idiot who doesn’t grasp hyperbole to use one of Biden favorite words
I think you have too much faith in the guardrails. They only work if people choose to honor them. Norms, rules and laws -- they can all fall down very quickly. I also don't think you take into account how much damage he has done already.
There could be first or even second steps towards all the things you listed in a 4 year administration.
Yeah, then you know what happens next? We have another election.
That's not a guarantee. Remember when we thought the Supreme Court would honor precedents and then didn't? Nothing is guaranteed.
I have seen Josh Shapiro speak several times. I am convinced he will become the best spokesman for Democrats. His comments that you shared showed a Grand Canyon like chasm between him and Trump. While Shapiro was giving and showing compassion for that firefighter and his family, Trump was raising his fist for himself. Would Trump have ever had made that call? Has he ever? No.
Sorry everyone, but Josh Shapiro is a Jew and there are a lot of people that would never vote for him. Same with Buttigiege but because he's gay.
100% DISagree. Dems would, and I give TRUE independents more credit than that. The people who wouldn't vote Jewish, gay, woman are probably not thinking of voting democratic party anyway.
Woman or gay will happen a lot sooner than Jewish. The Dem party has a LOT of antisemitism.
Just out of curiosity, did you predict that the US would never vote for a Black as president?
I think Pete could get elected because younger voters from both parties just don’t understand the anti-gay stuff, but that’s the same group that hates Israel, so Shapiro is screwed on that front.
No I thought the US would take a black man over a woman in the primary, especially that woman (Clinton). He seemed fresh and had no political baggage compared to her. And McCain never had a chance. He seemed so out of touch especially when he suspended the campaign, rushed to DC for a meeting on the economy, and sat silent at the meeting. And then there was Palin who nobody wanted anywhere near the White House. Obama was in good shape with that pair as opponents.
I think people are more open than they used to be . I'm 66, and certainly what you stated has seemed true most of my life. But Obama got elected in 2008, and at the time I thought this country was too racist to elect a black man for President. I was pleasantly surprised to be wrong about that. I think a lot rides on the candidate--their message, oratory skill, and energy. And a majority of people in PA did vote for Shapiro to be their Governor not long ago. After 4 more years of either Biden or Trump, anyone that can speak in complete sentences will look brilliant.
There is no doubt that Obama had the oratory skills and message. I voted for him both times.
Mark Robinson is tied with Josh Stein. Why I’m sick of the Southeast, Chapter 231.
Josh Shapiro is wonderful. But he won’t step down from being Governor. I agree with everything you two talked about except Shapiro. He has to stay the PA Governor because i might move there. I’m so tired of living in the southeast, so so tired. Anyhow, the co-eulogy is a fine idea but apparently his widow declined to take Biden’s call. It’s the worst.
He wouldn’t get elected anyway. The US isn’t electing a Jew right now.
The way Sarah’s focus group this weekend (Clinton to Biden voters) spoke about him made me sick.
I stopped listening to Sarah's FG podcast folks a while back. Sarah's insights are informative but I fast forward past the actual FG people. It's depressing and infuriating how stupid and biased people are.
Whoa. I will listen to that.
My theory of the case is this: Biden should make an announcement suggesting that both he and Trump step aside to help tone down the temperature in this country. Of course, Trump won’t do it. Biden, though should use the opportunity to go out on top, hand, the reins to Kamala and she should name Josh Shapiro her vice president.
lol. So dems do something to deliberately show that Trump is all powerful and dems are loser. That is a great strategy
It’s more of a demonstration to the nation. I admit it’s West Wing fantasy. But it shows who real adults are. It would be a gamble. Invite Trump to a joint press conference and do it there.
It doesn’t show people who care who the adults are. It just shows that dems are weak. I get it you want Biden to drop out. That’s fine but let’s not pretend this does anything to help dems. It’s just a way to get to a conclusion you prefer which is fine. I may disagree on the margin but it does nothing to help dems win in November
And I thought we were in scary times last week! Whatever Trump says during the Convention that seems to be "toning it down" - how could anyone take that at face value? Trump says whatever he needs to in the moment to get better ratings (i.e. votes). Think of "Build a wall and get Mexico to pay for it". I hope still-rational voters don't fall for any apparent "change of heart"! See "JD Vance". QED.
I just wanted to thank you for two things Tim. First your honesty and directness. But specifically today. Your closing song of Zombie sent me down a rabbit hole for 90’s alt rock/grunge and I am in a better mood because it was a welcome distraction. So Thank you.
Totally agree!! His song selections are actually saving us all!
Vance's earliest and most vociferous statement blaming any rhetoric of Biden for the assassination attempt guaranteed his selection as Trump's VP. I thought this on Sunday and now it has come to fruition. Vance now will become the total attack pit bull while Trump will tone it down. (for Trump) Trump now says he will now become a unifier. This is another con job that he has been successful in perpetrating through out his life.
Tim wins; it’s JD Vance. Heaven help us.
If we're still clinging to any remaining optimism, Vance doesn't help expand Trump's base of voters whatsoever. He's already got the right wing straight white male vote.
I’m thrilled because he’s so extreme.
Excellent song selections this week Tim, though it sure feels that America’s walkout music is getting grim …
I don’t feel helpless at all.
Our candidate is Joe Biden. If you cannot understand why it isn’t the VP (anyone else is absolutely impossible and delusional) listen to Sarah’s focus group from this weekend. I suggest you pay particular attention to why people won’t vote for a Jew before getting excited about Shapiro. I guarantee you that he knows; we Jews have all experienced it. Phillips did too poorly for the GOP to bother to mention it.
The new Marist poll says the race is even. Nothing changed post-debate. They are statistically tied. None of the fantasy baseball picks beats Biden v Trump.
But, 2/3 of the voters said lying is disqualifying. One third said age is disqualifying. I don’t think anyone has asked that before, that way. Hmm.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/contest-for-president-still-up-for-grabs/
The RW inbreds (Alex Jones, Nick Fuentes, that ilk) think Trump being offed is the best thing that could happen for their Fringe of Lunacy Party™️. Our new POTUS would be Mike Flynn. They’ve been saying this for weeks. They have a couple of percentage points of control. Fuentes has already said the Groypers aren’t supporting Trump and Alex sounds like he’d offer a bonus if it happened.
Aileen Cannon has done America a mitzvah. She’s off the case and the 11th will reverse her. It wasn’t going to trial this year anyway.
I’m 66. Like Bill, I had reached the age of reason by 1968. If that blood-drenched spring and summer (not to mention 1963 or even 1865) didn’t halt political violence forever nothing will. This nation was born in violence. It nearly destroyed itself in violence. Some portion of it always likes political violence. That portion is bigger right now. It goes in cycles and this one will end too. We survived a Civil War, except for the three-quarters of a million who did not. The experiment remained intact and the violence curious didn’t go away.
May the memory of the father killed be a blessing. Vote Biden/Harris 2024. Love myself some Cranberries.
Right on Kim. This race basically is even. Most established voters already made up their minds long before the debate. With or without Biden on the ticket it is still basically a binary choice. Voter turnout will make the difference ... especially the young people who will live with the consequences of this election. There is no deus ex machina figure who is going to descend from the sky. We are on the beach now with the leader w have, no retreat, and each of us needs to do whatever we can to motivate the Great Apathetic Majority of the nation to step up and do the right thing.
Thank you for the perspective. These are not the most violent times in our history, at least not in terms of political violence. My larger fear, however, is that we have never been this close to becoming trapped within an authoritarian system. And I feel horrible for saying this, but are we sure that our situation would be exponentially worse if Trump had in fact been killed? *Not* saying I wish that had happened; I'm only engaging in an academic question. The leaders who were assassinated in the 60s were all fundamentally good people engaged in the difficult work of bending the arc of justice. Are we sure that the assassination of an aspiring tyrant would unleash chaos? Having listened to a fair amount of interviews with Ruth Ben-Ghiat, she always emphasizes the importance of the cult leader's physical presence. If that were in fact to disappear, do we really know what would happen? Yes, I realize this is tangential to your post - still processing Tim and Bill's discussion from earlier as well.
Tim Snyder has good thoughts on that very question.
https://timothysnyder.org/on-tyranny
Thank you!
Tim,
What are your thoughts on the type of adverts that Dem, PACs and Lincoln Project might rollout on Peckerwood Vance?
I’m not going to touch the Biden getting out of the race again. No point in beating the dead horse over and over again.
I just couldn’t disagree more about a joint presser or a joint eulogy or whatever. Anyone who is going to vote on character and empathy is already voting for Biden. New voters or double haters don’t care. Trump has literally told Nikki voters that “you aren’t welcome in maga” and a bunch of them are going to vote for Trump. Literally no one cares about how beautiful a speech is anymore. Obama didn’t gain votes from his election in 2008 to 2012 by showing empathy. He lost votes between those elections but he was just empathetic and gave beautiful speeches.
You also keep saying that given that most people hate this political environment want change so Biden should drop out. Guys Biden or any dem isn’t fixing our political environment or political discourse. That is being driven by Trump and maga through and through. Changing Biden to Kamala won’t tamp down the rhetoric or hatred. Shit it might even increase it. You guys are trying to solve a problem by switching chairs on the titanic. The issue is Trump is the titanic. What people hate is what Trump has done to our politics but like almost every political pundit (and a lot of voters) you blame Dems and Biden for not fixing it. That isn’t reasonable or possible. It won’t matter if you swap Biden out for Kamala or gretch or Josh…the environment where our politics exist will be identical or get worse.
Mig, I cannot agree with you more! If Biden steps aside and either Harris, Gretchen or Shapiro wins somehow, MAGA is not going to disappear. Heck, it might get worse because they are not going to accept either a black woman, a white woman or a Jew as the POTUS after a black man became the POTUS TWICE.
The problem is they don’t have to win (which I want). They just have to run. People blame Biden for not “fixing” American politics. People blame Biden for not”bridging the divide.” You see this from the anti-anti’s. How many times have you heard them say “I thought he wouldn’t divide us.” To anti-anti’s and maga is ANYTHING you say that disagrees with them is YOU being decisive. It’s heads you lose and tails they win
Yeah, after the assassination attempt and the JD Vance pick, I finally agree with you, Migs. No point in changing the Democratic ticket because Trump-Vance are going to win. Biden waited too long to drop out.
Stop what? As in "stop, I refuse to listen to that possibility"?
Stop
Maybe. Who knows. I definitely can’t predict the future but not much data says anyone does better. Just a vibes discussion.
OK, I won't give up. But if the Democrats do not revamp their ticket, and if no independent alternative emerges, that'll be a tall order.
I do completely agree with all the sentiments against political violence. But given the Trump v. U.S. ruling, the Supreme Court has taken us back to 1775 and bestowed upon the presidency the capacity for tyrannical power far beyond the power of George III and far beyond what the colonists rose up in "political violence" to overthrow. We do not condemn that political violence every July 4. We exalt it.
If Trump and Vance were to ascend to the throne and threaten to overthrow our constitutional rights, our right to bear arms would be our only recourse. We would need to use it or lose it. We are so dangerously close to this scenario. We must be prepared for this. We are not, and they know it.
Love me some Cranberries!!!
Love the choice of “Zombie” to close out the show. *sigh* We miss you Dolores - wish you were still here to sing to us in the nutty times.
Great choice of song Tim. Although the song is about the Troubles, I’ve been feeling like a Zombie for the past couple of weeks and it got worse this morning when I heard about the classified docs case being dismissed.
Good--we *should not* give up all hope. Whether the nominee ends up being Biden or the Democrats go the wiser route (IMHO) and find a substitute, it's currently the middle of July. We have just over 3.5 months. Sure, that's not much . . . but other races have ended up differently from where they were at in the summer. Just ask former President Hillary Clinton.
We don’t feel helpless. I have not passed your judgments about dems. Please don’t abandon us with your disregard and assumptions. We are still here. Still fighting for democracy. I think what you are doing is just as destructive as what you are assuming everyone on the left is doing.
I don't think you should moderate your rhetoric about Project 2025 and Trump's authoritarian aspirations at all.
The Bulwark and and allies like Pod Save have been well with in bounds.
Blaming you for pointing out the dangers of his stated plans is like starting a fire and blaming the person who pulls the fire alarm for the panic.
(Sorry for the repost, I'm new to Substack)
On the "unity" thing, Abby Phillip did an interview this morning, their version of unity sounds like an "alternative definition" of the word. It sounds like it just means hugging his base and asking us to apologize to them.
RNC drinking game: do a shot every time a speaker uses the term “they” as a vague, generalized reference to everyone they hate.
That's like the "some say" drinking game you can play watching Fox. Every day.
Optimism of the will!
Donald Trump’s idea of unity is that we all acquiesce to MAGA & Project 2025.
Project 2025 is heralded by their president Kevin Roberts as revolutionary. And he said the revolution could be "bloodless if the left allowed it to be". Unity OR ELSE!
Zombie (Cranberries). Perfect for the moment.
We are not helpless in this election cycle. Just because Trump supporters are louder and feel the need to wear clothes that proclaim their allegiance doesn't mean there are more of them than us, team democracy. Each time a Scott Jennings says Democrats call Trump a threat to democracy, respond with he attempted a coup, still denies election results of 2020 and prevented the peaceful transfer of power. It isn't our imagination that makes him a threat to democracy, it's his actions. Time to put the campaign ads back up and go on the offensive. There will be no tempered rhetoric at the RNC, not when the VP is the little dictator in waiting, JD Vance.
The republicans recognize the need to "pass the torch" and recognize the next generation. Why can't the Dems recognize this? At this point, I've resigned myself to an incoming Trump presidency, and hope that our institutions can survive the next four years.
I am not sure what you meant by the repulicans recognize the need to pass the torch. Trump is still the presidential nominee for GOP. He did not step aside despite he is old, cognitively declined, a convicted felon, rapist, liar and so on.
I guess one could argue that Biden attempted to pass the torch when he selected Harris as his VP... But the cultish behavior of the Dem party is nearly as bad as MAGA these days, like the way that everyone went to immediately back Biden after the debate and made sure to get in line. I wish Biden would let go of his ego and prop up someone like Whitmer or Shapiro. They give me hope.
Tim was right. It’s Vance.
Good thoughtful convo. But one quibble: it’s not factually true that we haven’t had political violence lately. This is just the event that came the closest to succeeding at the Presidential level recently. Scalise, Giffords, Whitmer, Obama, CNN, Clinton, etc. It’s been bad for a while.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/10/24/politics/bill-clinton-hillary-clinton-chappaqua
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/man-jan-6-warrant-arrested-obama-dc-home/story?id=100511340
I don’t have Joe or Mika’s contact info so I am going to grumble here: I think it was exactly the WRONG decision to not air Morning Joe today. It implies some sort of concession of complicity or guilt which is preposterous. They can discuss the dangerous threat to the country that Trump is AND also soberly, respectfully and factually report the news.
Can we now drop the false narrative that some have been promoting that Trump has mellowed after his near death experience now that it’s Vance as VP?
This election should be framed entirely in the future of the judiciary. A trump win= a federal judiciary compromised at all levels turning the rule of law into a mockery and a sham. We need to defeat Trump to save the judiciary if nothing else. Also I wish Biden would step aside and I am beyond disgusted at the “top level democrats” who are apparently so sanguine about another Trump term. THIS IS THE TIME TO GO FOR IT.
Biden’s words are strong-but his delivery is lacking energy. He looks tired, worn down, old. I don’t think there is any way for him to appear energetic. When Trump uses the word Unity, he means everyone agrees with him. Often we use words that sound the same but are very different. We don’t want Trump unity. We want mutual respect.
When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.
Biden stays in; we all lose.
Bullshit. I’ll take my prognostication from Allan Lichtman, thanks. Pills are crap. Opinions are empty. Doomsaying is worse than useless. We’ll see where we are with “the keys” in August.
Some would beg to differ:
https://munkdebates.com/podcasts/biden-concerns-debate/
It’s insanely selfish of him. He used to be more wise—now, so defensive and says really unfortunate things because of it. Defensiveness is not strength! It’s really unfair to ALL of us who are desperate to keep DJT out of office (handily) & have a chance to keep the Senate, hold & gain House seats. How is this happening?! He keeps claiming he’s doing this for his voters (primaries), but (1) we had no real choice; & (2) we were not informed about his consequential limits.
I wish I could rescind my primary vote for Biden from last March.
I think we need a Joe Biden lettuce...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-s-N48eK430
Please no
Tim I agree. Just because DJT was shot at doesn’t mean we don’t look at Biden and his poling
If the WH thinks Biden is being unfairly dissed as too feeble, it should invite a credible reporter to spend a full week with him and report back on his working hours.
There's still time to prove the debate was just a "bad night," Joe.
I would like to hear the special council Ben Hur's taped interviews with Biden
I'm curious, but I'm not expecting any big surprises. Even if Hur's armchair diagnosis was precipitous or presumptuous, one needn't be a doctor to opine if someone is the best candidate in a particular context. That's a political judgment, whether accurate or fair or not. The only other question is who should ultimately and definitively get to make it.
Seth, I respect and appreciate your creativity.
Journalists are operating on a broken model:
— Trump has been president for a term. During that time, 1 million Americans died, the largest amount in peace time the country has ever seen. It's like we forgot when one 9/11-worth of people were dying every day, in our country.
— Biden has orchestrated all the policies that have dug us out of that ditch. In addition, he has presided other the most productive reform era since Lyndon Johnson, and arguably since FDR, that included multiple infrastructure and industrial policy investments that Trump has always claimed to be able to do, but never delivered.
Yet, journalists have never given Joe Biden an ounce of the coverage that Donald Trump has ever received until now — and now that they are finally putting him in the headline, it's for some ridiculous shit.
I appreciate your creativity, but we must acknowledge, at some point, that our problems have a lot to do with the attention-deficit disorder of the people reporting and purporting to comment on events.
I will go further and say: Biden has governed as a perfect President, being the tip of the power, and letting his power and money (through laws from Congress) flow to other politicians and States. He doesn't get covered much because he empowers the rest of the country. Donald Trump makes everything about himself.
The latter is the more attractive story, in other words, the media has a strong-man bias, and it needs to understand that. The media likes a story where a Strong Person commands the attention and Orders People Around.
Lol, so you're implying that a reporter might fall asleep before Joe does? I have to admit, I hadn't considered that angle.
.
But don't forget that Biden purposely ran as the soporific, near-invisible candidate four years ago, and it worked. Trump was the perfect foil. Now, not so much.
Plus, no good deed goes unpunished. Churchill was kicked out of office in 1945 for leading Britain to victory over Hitler.
And, as you know, no news is good news. The media always prefers conflict and drama to a quiet day at the office.
But that still leaves Biden as a conductor badly in need of an orchestra.
Trump fell asleep at the convention today. Since we are mentioning sleeping candidates.
The real question is which *voters* will be asleep in four months, and why.
There just isn't time. It's baked in, which is why in every poll there are like 75% or more of the respondents saying that he's too old. And Biden's numerous public appearances this weekend didn't help matters - he looks tired and old, and it's not like he's going to get younger. If Democrats actually want to win this election, and they should, they either have to replace Biden with a better candidate, go back to attacking Trump relentlessly and hope that you can essentially disqualify him with voters, or both.
Read the new Marist poll. 32% of voters think age is disqualifying but 68% of voters think lying is.
Even if 75% of voters really believe he’s too old (obviously, given Marist, opinions vary) that’s no indication that they won’t vote for him. I think they’d vote for his corpse.
I *hope* they'll vote for him. I'll vote for him even if he tries futilely to impersonate a vigorous, healthy candidate. I just think it'll be a shame if thanks to his stubbornness that's the only option.
There's apparently time to wait for him to reconsider. 🤷🏻♂️
Tick tock.
This won’t work. If he does great they will ask for 2 weeks. If he does great there it will be 4 weeks.
Plus they can’t get clearance.
I doubt he can do "great" once it's credibly reported that he's working <6 hours a day and still looks like he's at death's door. But his defenders keep insisting that that's all just right wing propaganda.
If he won't provide any clearance at all it's a tacit admission that he has something to hide. A reporter doesn't have to listen in on his private phone calls, but can surely keep reasonable tabs on when he's awake with the lights on.
Come on man this is a crazy take. You have a conclusion and no matter what any evidence says you are going to drive towards it. Maybe he works 6 hours or maybe 18 hours a day? I don’t know but I’m not driving to a conclusion
All the more reason for you to know the actual facts and not rely on WH (or any other) spin. Don't you care whether he's up to the job?
No. He just has to win. He has a VP and a Cabinet and generals. He has economic policies and foreign policies and domestic policies. Nobody leads alone.
Reagan led a second term with obvious Alzheimer’s.
Rudderless and adrift, the nation steamed along pretty much as always.
Then maybe he should just keep out of the spotlight entirely and let someone else do the talking for him. Because he hasn't been doing himself many favors lately.
The Debate Effect was pretty much nil. Read the new Marist poll.
His events since then have been solid.
Where I do agree with you is sending out good surrogates. Send Pete to every swing state. Whitmer and Shapiro and Bernie are doing their part (and Gavin) and there needs to be more of them.
Biden won from a basement. Have quick appearances places, lots of retail politics (he’s so good at that) and let the genuine orators speak. They should all be featured at the convention.
That might give us a good idea who could win in 2028. The world discovered Barack Obama that way.
Ok so we just do something that has never been done? That’s not a solution that’s just fantasy. It takes months to get high level security clearance. To “sit in” with Biden is not just unlikely but dumb.
Fine, have it your way. Since you're leaving no room to change lanes, I'll just keep driving in mine.
There are a lot of things I want. The likelihood of me getting a lot of them are low but some are impossible. This is just one of them
Not giving up or giving in!!