It would have been nice if Biden had gone on Morning Joe the day after the debate instead of waiting 11 days. But he still is not providing a forward-looking message or explaining why he's the one to beat Trump. Meanwhile, Kamala is showing what an aggressive, proactive campaign looks like. Plus, Project 2025 moves into the spotlight, and the good news for democracy coming from overseas.
The Bulwark Podcast
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Tim Miller and guests discuss the latest political news for the flagship podcast of the Never Trump movement and the reality-based community. Every weekday we provide insightful analysis, political hot-takes, an unabashed defense of liberal democracy and long-form interviews that cut through the "both-sides" BS. Plus a few laughs to help you wash down the crazy.
An ad-free edition is exclusively available for Bulwark+ members.
Tim Miller and guests discuss the latest political news for the flagship podcast of the Never Trump movement and the reality-based community. Every weekday we provide insightful analysis, political hot-takes, an unabashed defense of liberal democracy and long-form interviews that cut through the "both-sides" BS. Plus a few laughs to help you wash down the crazy.
An ad-free edition is exclusively available for Bulwark+ members.Listen on
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I get the argument that Obama wants harmed by the primary fight in 2008 but I do think Clinton was harmed by the protracted primary/inter party argument in 2016. Either way, I'm nervous.
Is it time to admit that the logic of No Labels may have been correct?: Voters, with good reason, despise the two major-party options, and it would have been good to have an alternative candidate ready to run in the event of an emergency.
Bill Kristol was right. He was right in January. He is right now. We are all incredibly grateful to President Biden but time marches on. Facts are hard things.
The Bulwark is a full-throated participant in the Putin, Xi and Oligarch wannabes information warfare campaign being waged against the United States of America.
You are projecting. The Bulwark is leading the fight AGAINST autocrats like Putin and Xi - and their protege Trump. When you mischaracterize disagreements about strategy as siding with the opposition, you are taking a page from the autocrats' playbook.
I beg to differ, to turn a phrase.
Projecting what, exactly?
DJT’s best hope of winning is to force a Biden exit and/or Dem party division.
Tim and the Bulwark are trying to do both.
I don’t care that Tim says he’ll support Biden after he does everything he can to shit on Biden pre convention, the damage will have been done.
The Bulwark is a news and commentary outlet, NOT a propaganda outlet whose job is to promote their "team". Furthermore, The Bulwark has zero influence on the electorate. It is not capable of doing "damage" to Biden. Biden has damaged himself, and it is not the job of anyone outside his own team to cover that up or spin it.
It is the job of journalists to find out and publicize the truth. Hiding inconvenient truths is the sort of thing that autocrats do, and it appears you wish The Bulwark would behave more like autocrats, publishing only what serves to promote the party line.
Worst of all, you accuse Tim of "trying" to force "Dem party division". You might sincerely believe the result of Biden's withdrawal would be division among Democrats, but turning that into an ad hominem attack on Tim, accusing him of INTENDING that outcome is both ridiculous and libelous.
One might similarly accuse you of trying to get Trump elected by forcing the Dems to stick with a candidate who is incapable of winning. The problems with that accusation are that 1) it is not clear that you actually intend that outcome, and 2) even if you wished for that outcome, you have no power to bring it about through your shitposting.
I am still not convinced that Tim and Bill are right. I think it might be too late to change candidates. But I completely reject your ad hominem attack, as well as your arrogant certainty that they are wrong. Tim and Bill have both shown more humility about their stance on this issue than you have ever shown about anything.
Good to see that you have Tim’s appreciation.
It is nice when someone defends you from accusations of being a fascist and so I like to acknowledge that
I’ve never accused you nor anyone else at Bulwark of being fascist.
Mike, you accused Tim of being a Putin/Xi oligarch wannabe. This is a no BS zone and you’re slicing your own bologna way too thin in your denial.
That’s not at all what I said.
Tim and the Bulwark (actually mostly Charlie and Bill) have been agitating for months for Biden to pass the torch. Just before the debate it had settled down, eg Bill even tweeted “Biden’s a much better candidate now.” Then, night of the debate and for two solid weeks, all of them turned the volume up to 11 in a full court press expressing their opinion that Biden step aside. To be sure, ALL of MSM has done so, too, esp the NYT. The only stalwart in MSM is Lawrence.
I assert this is exactly the behavior that Putin/ Xi and the Oliwannabes want because Biden dropping out OR being damaged by his own party is DJT’s best chance of winning.
I also believe, esp with the behavior of the NYT, (inexplicable to me except for influence) that there’s an info war being waged against the USA, financed by Putin/Xi and the Oliwannabes, basically by anyone that wants to see the USA weekend and/or converted to authoritarianism.
I also believe that the Bulwark folk read and react to every poll as if the polling is a 100% true and correct representation of the facts on the ground when all recent actual results show that Dems and the issues aligned with Dems have been outperforming polls by significant number of %points, e.g. NY-3.
So, I’m very sorry if it ever looked like I was accusing Tim or anyone at the Bulwark of being fascist, that was never my intention.
I stand by my critique that their behavior pre and esp post debate has been exactly the behavior that Putin/Xi and the Oliwannabes would want to see.
DJT is a rapist felon fraudster and with the Epstein grand jury testimony being released, sure looks like there is a credible accusation that DJT’s propensity to rape women uncles 12 year old girls.
I’d love to see the Bulwark apply their knowledge , horsepower and their love of our country by focusing a little more on how unfit DJT Is, a little less on polling obsession, a little more on educating their readers, viewers and listeners on what they can do to help improve our situation, a little more on how dangerous Project 2025 and the people behind it are, a little more on how every race is importance inc taking back the House and retaining the Senate, and to focus a shit ton less in one poor debate performance.
One concrete idea, how about a week long series dedicated to helping us all understand the polling industry, how is it financed, how it’s used to drive media cycles etc.
Tim it would be nice if Bill Kristol focused a equal amount of criticism and attention on trump as he does Biden, maybe Bill should go to work for the NYT, and I have a fuck of a hard time listening to him talk, runs his words together, talks little too fast at low monotone voice, Bill needs to sound off like he has a pair, just tell him to give Biden a fucken Break for a change, I like your show Tim, but I’ve stopped listening to Your and Bills show, too much criticism for me. AMF
While Bill and Tim make a good case for covering this topic, there's a downside they didn't mention: the rally-round-the-underdog effect, or maybe we should call it the Trump effect. A significant, and loud, chunk of Biden's most committed supporters feel their guy is being unfairly attacked and, if some of the more favorable polls are correct, that feeling may be spreading. Not everyone looked at the debate and saw abject failure. Some saw a man struggle and partially overcome a very bad start, and they aren't taking kindly to being lectured about "what we all saw."
So maybe continue discussing it, but not all day every day? Maybe put the focus back on other political news while the Dems (hopefully) get their act together?
Are we a political party or a suicide pact? Biden step down, Obama & Clinton moderate some debates, pick a new president & vp, kamala of course is included in all of this. Maybe she gets thru, maybe not. I think trump had incorporated bots to stan for Biden staying in the race. We're getting hoodwinked.
Love the implied admission from Kamala that every four years their election scaremongering is bullshit.
Viewed from the UK, you guys need to get real.
The current version of Joe Biden would not get through an initial job interview for any meaningful CEO job anywhere in the world. Biden needs to be replaced before November.
In the words of one of your most famous sons ...do it Now!
We look up to you guys as the leaders of the free world. Start leading.
The worst that can happen is not that a bad guy gets to strut his stuff for four years it is that you collectively put short term political gain in the US ahead of long lasting standing position in the world.
I can assure you that Trump, a convicted felon and adjudicated rapist, would not even get the initial interview.
Colleen, you are of course correct.
I am as concerned regarding the Trump menace as most Americans.
However, my point was that the whole world knows what Trump is like and similarly, we all know that an elderly person who is clearly confused will only deteriorate further as the years take there toll. Sad to say but Biden is no longer a viable candidate.
By replacing Biden as soon as decency allows a replacement may still loose but has a fighting chance of success and would allow us Europeans to hope that Trump may still be defeated.
It's your best shot.
I am in favor of replacing Biden but I’m not sure my party is up for the fight it will take. We will know more in a week as more and more defectors become known. I’m just disgusted with my country for idealizing and adoring a commonplace grifter from Queens.
An idea for convincing the family to wake up about what Biden should do: if he did withdraw or even resign, whether with or without an endorsement, he could go on and pardon Hunter! There'd be some blowback to the party's eventual nominee, sure, but not much effect on the election results.
He cannot pardon Hunter. It would be a catastrophe.
Can we take away Bidens argument that he is the only one who has ever beaten Trump. It enrages me every time I hear it. He is the only democrat that has ever ran against him. It's a fucking weak argument. Pleas for the love of God can someone pleas get that out there and against anyone who ever uses it.
You're forgetting Hillary Clinton. So, we're 1 for 1. I do agree we need a better argument, but he's not wrong.
I feel like I hear so much about what needs to be done on these podcasts by so many people who have been long-term Democrats. Is somebody telling anybody to do this?
Can you (because if not you, who?) find some young people (influencers) to create content on TikTok and instagram to highlight the 2025 Project and the Supreme Court nominations if Dump is re-elected? Some celebs? Taylor Swift?
I see that in ads in Wisconsin 20 times/day. Its pretty much the only ad I ever see.
Obama v Clinton did strengthen both candidates but Bernie v Clinton DID NOT. Bernie created Crooked Hillary.
I think I’m officially giving up on The Bulwark . I’m so sick of this bullshit Biden bashing just a description of the episode. Is enough for me to say fuck off again.
It's either Biden or Harris. Can we please dispense with the suicidal idea of a brokered convention? It's hard to take anyone seriously who doesn't see this clearly by now - African Americans are Biden's biggest supporters right now and the heart of the Democratic Party. At this point trying to bypass Harris is borderline insulting to all of us. Let. It. Go.
The convention can pick the VP for all that rah rah game board fun.
I sure would love to know what Charlie Sykes thinks of all this. Him and James Carville! Tim, get on it, have a banger of a week and have these two on one right after the other! Carville & Charlie for the win!
There is a wonderful opinion piece by Carville in the NYT today offering a way forward for the Dems.
Yeah and I thought it sucked
Interesting that Michael Steele references the cohort of pro-democracy Republicans in his pep talk to the Dems re:Biden. Being that Reaganite former officials and disaffected Republicans are somehow unable to muster a coalition of support for the one major party left trying to help Ukraine and save constitutional order as Trump inches toward power. The GOP has been totally usurped by a pro-authoritarian enemy of constitutional conservatism, but sure, it’s the Dems that need a pep talk as Biden flounders in the home stretch. Got it.
Thanks Tim & Bill for noticing AZ 2022 election. Note it wasn't just governor Hobbs - voters chose Democrats for numerous statewide exec offices because of a whole slate of Republicans with candidate quality deficits. Turns out voters CAN choose sanity over chaos.
Out of frustration at the situation we’re in I wrote letters to Schumer, Jefferies and the DNC yesterday, to convey my concerns about the lack of leadership- as Tim said, what’s the plan to prosecute the case against Trump and the MAGA movement and get people off their couches to vote? And my resentment at being treated like the enemy- I’m the foot soldier who canvasses, phone banks and writes postcards, not a pundit and not the media, and Biden is not listening to me. I wanted him to run in 2015, signed up to volunteer for his campaign as soon as he entered the race but now I see a bitter and yes old man. Stepping down is the honorable decision and we do need to shake things up. People I’ve talked to since the debate are in a state of despair and don’t see how we can win.
What do you see as a viable path forward if he steps down?
At this point, I’m in favor of Biden releasing his delegates to Harris. She would inherit his campaign’s infrastructure and war chest. An open convention would be a mess, tempt R donors to play games and take the spotlight offTrump, MAGA and Project 25. If Biden is determined (defiant) to stay in the race, then I want him to articulate a winning strategy.
I am glad you took the time to listen to the link and respond. I felt very sad watching the debate but it's one instance. I think much more focus needs to be put on Trump and the real danger he presents. If Joe were to have a stroke or something, of course the Vice President, Kamala Harris would step up. That's why we have a vice president, isn't it? Why borrow trouble now, so to speak? There's also the problem with Ohio, my home state which is refusing to cooperate with the Democratic party so there is a very real possibility that there won't be any nominee on the ballot. As I understand it there is going to be a virtual nomination vote prior to the convention in order to make sure Ohio's legislature accepts it. If Joe Biden steps down now, who knows how his delegates will vote and if it would be in time for Ohio's ballot. Even though there's very little chance any democrat would win Ohio, I don't think it would be fair to leave an entire state without an alternative to Trump on the ballot. I just think there's not enough time for anyone but Biden to be the nominee.
Dems supporting Biden is not like blindly supporting Trump. To beat Trump is the goal and if he wins democracy is at grave risk. I think Dems are trying to figure out the best way to do that. Biden is decent, not a criminal.
I don't like to question anyone's sincere opinions, but it is hard to believe that Michael Steele, Rick Wilson & Stuart Stevens honestly believe Biden would win.
In their view, I think it's a matter of probabilities. Biden might be only 30% likely to win, but it's hard to imagine how the Democrats would nominate a replacement candidate who is more likely to win. I'm not convinced they are wrong, but I've never been a Democrat, so I find it hard to speculate about what would happen if Biden were to withdraw.
A dem for my whole long life, I think the party has shown remarkable pragmatism starting with the Clinton years. They have passed on many fire-breathing libs...Howard Dean, Bernie, Elizabeth Warren etc. As a result, I sort of trust them to find a decent replacement! I know, it's super iffy.
I am unconvinced that Steele, Wilson & Stevens think Biden is a winner. I cynically see them garnering attention with a position that sets them apart from most of their peers.
Obviously you don't mind questioning someone's sincere opinions. :-)
Thanks Tim for inserting that clip of Kamala Harris's speech. Imagine having candidates for Office of the President of the United States who don't mumble, have to correct themselves every 10 seconds, don't lie through their teeth, and are actually coherent! Maybe the 2028 race will be less pathetic.
It all sounds great. But 53 years of being a black man in this country knows the switch will flip on candidate Harris in nanosecond. Joe knows the dirty truth nobody wants to admit. Too many Dems, independents will pause at the idea of a POC at the top of the ticket.
The birtherism started already. And the dog whistles are ready to blow full steam ahead.
IMO, they need to push hard running as a combined ticket. Get Harris out more out front so people know we’ll be fine if Joe has to step down. Run on the strength of the administration and what it’s accomplished and it’s not a one man show. Pivot to
how that compares to Trump with the Heritage Foundation as VP and go on offense.
AND is the country ready for a female Commander-in-Chief? I hear people bristle at that prospect. I think getting Harris out is an excellent move, she is better equipped to prosecute the case against Trump.
This contest between Trump and Biden shouldn't be close, and it's not--Trump is pulling ahead. Biden is delusional.
As a left leaning independent I would like to say just stop it with the wish casting about Joe stepping down. It's too late. Many have said they would vote for a potato, a coffee mug, etc rather than Trump so what makes you think they won't vote for "compromised" Joe? Let him beat Trump, get inaugurated again and then if need be step down and let Kamala take the reins. And Joe's message is and has been to let him finish the job.
Tim and Sarah hear the answer to your question from a ton of the voters needed - expressed in their own words. I didn't hear from those many who would vote for a soup can or any of the other options you mention, Kelly. Those many are probably in cohorts that are not the cohorts essential now as we watch Joe slip by two points in swing states from his already losing position. I don't have polls, facts, numbers and the rest to offer, but this testimony sounded real to me. https://www.thebulwark.com/p/derangement-vs-impairment-with-tim
I watched this last night.https://youtu.be/2acbmSjSvvI?si=2NdnFtbCd-aG00oq
She talks about the media's role and the elected politicians. This testimony sounded real to me (and I did listen to the focus group you linked to. Remember to account for the selection process of who they're talking to).
Thanks, Kelly. I listened to this. She is very intelligent, principled, and exceptionally angry and aggressive. I agree with her on the existence of perverse incentives affecting media behavior. I don't agree with her premise that Biden having gotten the delegate votes and voter approval to date automatically and permanently immunizes him from evaluation as time goes on, particularly as many who have supported him (like me) see, with our own eyes and hear him with our own ears and are not feeling that he is right for the presidency now. If he were to have a stroke and be unable to speak at all, by her logic, the press should still support him because she said so. So yes, this person has some legitimate suspicions and concerns, but I don't agree with her conclusions, and don't find her threatening and hostile tone to increase her credibility as an expert on journalism or politics.
Absolutely, the selection process of participants in the focus groups Sarah has organized is essential to understand. With the goal of beating Trump, Sarah assembles groups that might be persuaded to vote Democratic, or at least to reject Trump.
Oh man, is this another I am going to have to skip....sigh
I just can't take any more of this....🙁...
Not a fan of Kamala, but, as I have no choice either way, guess it doesn't matter..adn I was pretty sure most swing ( especially right leaning ones) voters don't like her either, I know the center rights over at the Dispatch don't at all
I also have not been a fan of Kamala Harris. But this podcast from the NY Times explains some of what happened to get Kamala into her current difficulties. One big problem was that the anti-police ferment in the wake of George Floyd's death threw her candidacy up in the air because she is, basically, a law-and-order type, but she had to de-emphasize that in 2020, and she never came up with anything to replace it with. I haven't finished it yet, but I'm already feeling less negative about her prospects as a candidate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KyvaxlKuOuE&list=PLdMrbgYfVl-szepgVpArP0obwYgbKdfvx&index=3&t=202s
Yeah, I read about that somewhere else, can't remember where
I am even moreso just remembering how she acted during her run for president, that didn't impress me...
Who knows, like I said not like there is anything I can do to choose if they decide to go forward...
misogynoir
No, ,these are decent people, they just don't care for her manner, plus one of them used to work for her and he doesn't have a good opinion either, which he has shared.
I don't like her and it has nothing to do with being a woman of color...and I won't vote for any woman just because she is woman
why don’t you like Kamala? what is it about her “manner” that these decent people don’t like?
Apparently, how she got there is an issue Her affair with an important pol who mentored her...she also has mistreated staff, they find her personal manner offputting etc, I don't know every reason.
I think as a person she is....ok...I dont' think she would make a good president, and I am not sure she has all the skills neede.d, and I just get a bad vibe from here when I think about her being president, now there are plenty of other women, even ones of color I like a lot more...
Interesting point of view that you have a bad vibe about VP Kamala being President. I suspect many voters also have. You think she is ok as a person and not sure she has the skills to be President…as the sitting VP? It seems to be such a conundrum why voters don’t like her. I recall Nikki Haley saying that VP Kamala would be a disaster but never explained why. There never seems to be a solid reason cited why she is perceived to be disliked and unqualified.
Most of those objections are pieces of information that contribute to a picture of her abilities, but the one about her relationship with Willie Brown makes me see red.
Yes, their relationship went a step further, but Brown has mentored many California politicians, including Gavin Newsom. You don't hear anyone give that as a reason not to support Newsom or any other candidate, but it's the one all the Trump-loving misogynists on twitter pop off with every time Harris is the subject of a post. If they are citing that as a reason, I'm inclined to distrust their other evaluations, too.
I don't know any Trump-loving mysogynists, so, I don't know what they think.
I have read many times about her and Willie, it seems to be common knowledge it was more than being mentored, they had an affair apparently...i actually don't hold that against her, though I find it a bad example to women, and they should stop doing that, though it works more than it doesn't...
Some times some people just rub me the wrong way without a clear idea why they bother me, though I eventually figure it out most of the time, so I am sure other people have the same experience.
Now , I haven't liked Trump since the 80's , he made my skin crawl even then, and I get that tightening in my neck...that happens with me with some people, and I generally trust it.
To be clear, I totally get the thing about her manner (and even her nervous laugh) although I think she's doing better lately. And I certainly don't recommend having affairs with mentors; it's unprofessional at best, but it happened a long time ago and hardly seems a reason not to vote for someone.
It's hard to picture it having an effect on a male candidate's campaign 30 years later, unless there was abuse or it was the cause of a divorce or something really harmful.
I think it depends, though I am sure it happens, it is rare for a man to use a woman to get ahead...
Biden didn’t write this letter. He probably didn’t even read it, maybe it was read to him.
What is now infuriating me is that Biden would have been NOWHERE in 2020 if people like Pete, Liz, and Amy hadn’t agreed to step aside and endorse him on that Super Tuesday. It was orchestrated behind the scenes and inured to his benefit. It could have been any one of them. Now the same kind of orchestrated process needs to happen to get him to step aside in favor of Kamala, and he’s refusing to even collaborate.
Kamala’s name needs to be in this discussion front and center. Because if it’s Biden step down in favor of [blank], that’s not an actual plan. But Biden step down in favor of Kamala, the resistance by Biden can only really be interpreted as him saying he doesn’t have faith Kamala can win. Which means Jill and Hunter don’t have faith Kamala can win. And given all the “Shakespearean” stuff going on behind the scenes, that feels like a personal thing and why isn’t that racism.
I not only am not sure she can win, she isn't and wasn't my choice...I while I understand it is the easiest to do...not happy about it
why?
I don't think she is ready for President...she is awkward except when debating, and she often comes off as not very serious a lot...I thought when she ran for president she wasn't ready , and I still think that.
Plus, a lot of people don't like her for various reasons, people we need...
I would love to see a woman president, but, it has to be the right on,e, I am never going to vote for a woman just because she is woman ( and/or a woman of color)
besides Michelle Obama, what woman/black woman would you vote for, for president? today.
I like Val Demings and Amy Klobachar was my choice before they all dropped out in 2020
I am sure there are some more, but, I don't know as much about them
Have you googled “Parkinson’s symptoms”? It is alarming.
I'm sorry but Steel & Wilson sound like campaign flacks. Nobody is gonna dither around for a month and a half tryna figure out the next move forward. That's whats happening right now. Times a-waistin'
Tim, good criteria for who to have on - actual political experience - to make the keep-Biden case. This is why I'm a subscriber. Is it going to be Simon Rosenberg?
I agree with Bill that the focus groups' views on Harris is most likely based on fragmentary evidence. See Ezra Klein on "Is Harris Underrated? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KyvaxlKuOuE&list=PLdMrbgYfVl-szepgVpArP0obwYgbKdfvx&index=1). A good argument here that who she's been publicly is not who she is, the law and order Dem.
I'm listening to that podcast now, and I'm already feeling less negative about the prospect of a Kamala candidacy.
Great! I was persauaded too. And even more pissed at Biden than I've been for the lying and denial.
Even before I listened to it, I was beginning the hypothesize that Biden was treating Harris like a potential rival, rather than a potential protege. That's not a good position for a VP to be in!
I suppose that's often what happens, but with Biden being nearly 80, that's just hubris and narcissism.
Yeah, still not convinced, call it a vibe, but something about her when she talks especially sends red flags to my brain...lol
Including the clip from New Orleans they played?
Didn't watch the clip, I couldn't at the moment
Maybe I will go back at some point
Yeah ,what about the more left leaning libs who don't like her for that reason? I thought we needed them too.
If the left-leaners voted for Biden, why wouldn't they vote for Kamala?
Well, they never thought seh was progressive, but, I really don't know all their reasons now...I just read in a WA Po piece I think , that they are for Joe because while he didn't do everything they wanted, he did more than any other Dem president in their lifetime
Yes, if they want to beat Trump, they have to support the more moderate candidate.
I'm concerned w/ all the focus on the "should he stay or go" discussions, some very important info isn't being given the attention it deserves. For example, did anyone hear about this jaw-dropping rant from GOP candidate for NC gov. (my home state) in HCR's newsletter a couple of days ago?
"The extremism of the MAGA Republicans was on display in another way today as well after The New Republic published a June 30 video of North Carolina lieutenant governor Mark Robinson, currently the Republican nominee for governor of North Carolina, saying to a church audience about their opponents—whom he identified in a scattershot speech as anything from communists to “wicked people” to those standing against “conservatives”—"Kill them! Some liberal somewhere is gonna say that sounds awful. Too bad!... Some folks need killing! It's time for somebody to say it.” "
I gotta say, I can listen to that cogent vigor! KH might just do it
Tim and Bill,
Please keep up your efforts! Despite what is being said to you as well as to Bulwark folk like JVL, Sarah, AB, etc. suggesting otherwise, your motivation comes through loud and clear: Patriotic love and deep concern that our democratic republic beats back the aspiring authoritarian by having a cognitively and physically-abled Democratic Party nominee unrelentingly, energetically, and smartly campaign as though the country (and not just one person or family’s pride) depends on it.
Joe Biden has become the old coot that is sitting out on his porch and yelling for everyone to get off his lawn. He's kinda waving his old rusty shotgun around. In November he is going to get blown off his porch and take all of us with him.
I sincerely mean no disrespect to Tim but I would suggest a voice coach to get rid of the nasally voice and to teach him to quit the gurgly semi-laugh every 30 seconds. The podcast has, for me, become unlistenable. If I'm the only one, so be it. If others feel the same, perhaps he will get a coach. Or, most likely, he'll just say, "Fuck off," which I can respect.
The laugh is annoying i can't help myself.
I like the laugh because it's authentic.
Seriously? Try & focus on the content. Stupid shallow post.
Oh, really? Doesn't matter how someone sounds, one should only care about the content? So How about Gilbert Gottfried (RIP) hosting? That would be OK with you? Or how about someone whispering? That would be fine. An irritating voice is an irritating voice. Stupid shallow reply.
For me it’s at the end of sentences when his voice drops an octave lower and he’s at the end of a breath that it becomes hard to listen to
I struggle to hear him when he seemingly holds his breath and the ends of sentences fade.
If you folks don't like Tim's way of speaking, let me ask if you've listened to Andrea Mitchell lately?
I do listen to her and I can hear her; she has a slow cadence.
I am not complaining; I can often view the transcripts if I feel I am missing a key point made by Tim or Bill. Also I don't preclude that my hearing is the source of the problem rather than the speakers.
Disagree, I think Tim's voice is like sweet nectar.....and it has a bit of substance too.
Maybe I'm just getting old. Certain people's voices are getting more irritating by the day. Haha..
Boy, we really don’t need _two_ delusional candidates…
There's exactly one thing to be said in Biden's favor: he's not Trump. Our choice is between an old coot and an evil, delusional old coot. As an old coot with his 80th birthday coming up before election day, I claim to be entitled to say it.
I'm far from being a fan of Biden's. His moratorium on permitting LNG export facilities or whatever it was was braindead, assuming it was nothing but a PR stunt, a sop thrown to the green lobby with little effect on the progress already underway. And to date, he's been totally onboard with the most extreme version of the pediatric sex change nonsense, the latest iteration of efforts to "fix" gay kids. The statement opposing pediatric genital surgeries was all too clearly nothing but an attempt to recover from the embarrassment of the revelations regarding Adm Rachel (née Richard) Levine.
So I suppose I'll vote for Biden, not that it will make any difference to the outcome here in deep blue Maryland. Maybe it will help achieve the Pyrrhic victory of a majority in the national popular vote. That way Democrats can amuse themselves with another four years of bitching and moaning about the Electoral College when Trump wins again.
To believe that you're staying in the race until the almighty tells you is so fuckin arrogant and ego bullshit. I'm so pissed off at Bidens handlers. It was all complete bullshit. For democracy, the rule of law, oh the stakes. FJB. He's going to leave his legacy in shambles at the hands of DJT. Trumps going to shit all over Joe's accomplishments, same as he did with Obama's when he got into office. I'm fuckin livid. Not that he hasn't stepped down already, but that the democrats aren't talking this deathly seriously. A second trump term will ɓe insane. Hubris, foolhardy, careless and reckless. There's no one flying the plane at this point.
Yep, which shows us they clearly don't actually think Trump is a serious threat. Otherwise they would have gone full Seal Team 6 mode by now.
Dude yes. I couldn't agree more with how serious they should be taking this threat towards the country. Dictator on day one, what more evidence of clear and present danger do ya need?
The democrats are asking a racecar with loose lug nuts, an overheated engine, and a leaking brake line...to drive in the Indy 500. It's going to explode. It is a certainty.....And yet, the democrats will find a way to roll it out of pitlane and on to the track.
elder abuse
awesome!
I won't vote for a dementia patient. I've cared for two parents who had dementia. It's hard to take the keys. But we must.
When I was a kid, my dad yelled at me when I didn't take the trash out. When he lived with me, he yelled at me because I wouldn't let him take the trash out. There were days when each of them rebounded and were sharp. Mom could help me with the most obscure NYT crossword puzzle clues. She could still play Scrabble and do the math in her head. Do not be fooled by Biden's ability to maintain his composure during a speech or softball interview. My mom is a saint, but during each mental examination, she lied through her teeth more believably than Biden has.
I'm not voting for Joe Biden. I'm not going to assuage those Democrats who withheld information about Biden's condition from the public. I'm not giving them a pass. We must force the Democrats to fix this lest we burn in hell together.
will you vote for Kamala? you need to go that extra step or your statement is pointless.
Begrudgingly. I believe she will be a doomed ticket. I'd prefer a two-term governor. But she'd be my hero if she got half of Biden's Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment. She plus 1/2 of the Cabinet can make that happen. Let's see her do that. And then maybe use the imperial presidency's newfound extrajudicial power to deal with a genuine domestic threat to the Constitution. The Supreme Court did not reserve that power only for Trump.
P.p.s. I’m live blogging your podcast. Anyway, what do you think about Biden calling in to morning shows at least once a week?
I was listening to Morning Joe when Biden called in. At times he was rattling statistics off, and other moments he was stumbling through his usual word salad. I think he had a stack of notes and talking points in front of him that were essentially like having a teleprompter. He spoke, perhaps read through them, in lengthy segments which prevented the hosts from asking many troubling questions. Personally I would rather see him finesse press conferences everyday.
Jesús.
P.S. I don’t think Axelrod is the best voice for this time. For me, he’s from another era and I say that as his peer. I know of a lot of people who roll their eyes at him. I know I do.
True and Biden isn't for this time either. He's older than Axelrod.
I am now convinced that Biden should and will step down.
Is it possible that Don Beyer heard from his constituents?
Yes, and his conscience.
We're so fucked and it's going to be joe bidens fault.
Here's a thought. Whether or not old man Joe stays in the race or not, let's stop mentioning "bed wetting" in reference to an infirmary patient.
The clip you played of VP Harris speaking at the Essence Festival was powerful and stirring! Here is the text:
THE VICE PRESIDENT: — and everybody here, this is probably the most significant election of our lifetime. You know, we have said it every four years, but this here one is it.
We are looking at an election that will take place in 122 days —
MS. WANGA: A hundred and twenty-two.
THE VICE PRESIDENT: — where, on one side, you have the former president, who is running to become president again, who has openly talked about his admiration of dictators and his intention to be a dictator on day one, who has openly talked about his intention to weaponize the Department of Justice against his political enemies, who has talked about being proud of taking from the women of America a most fundamental right to make decisions about your own body.
And then, last week, understand — sadly, the press has not been covering it as much as they should in proportion to the seriousness of what just happened — when the United States Supreme Court essentially told this individual who has been convicted of 34 felonies that he will be immune from essentially the activity he has told us he is prepared to engage in if he gets back into the White House.
Understand what we all know. In 122 days, we each have the power to decide what kind of country we want to live in.
Assorted:
Agree that voters we care about don't care what "the chattering class" says. Agree that candidates in any given party competing until a decision is made does not necessarily cash out for party weakness once one is selected (not suggesting, of course, that attempts at hostile takeovers would work).
If you love Michael Steele, Tim, I will because he is now part of the family. Endless mulligans and benefits of the doubt. You know something is coming. As far as telling me I am pissing in my soup or have my head up my ass, or, worse, am the dummy who thought Biden was young the day before the debate, and whoa, duh, realized suddenly that he was old afterwards? I was out there telling folks who were getting better info from fascist rightwing propaganda than we were getting from his campaign, that he was not impaired, just compensating for a stutter, and yes, AGE. In fact, I did not know that he was incoherent before the debate.
But back to Michael, I can see how cute and funny and truly superior it is to mock lowercase democratic debate about the viability of Biden's candidacy. Not a fan of the shaming, though, you know, the bad kind.
My other favorite Tim wrote this yesterday, and he talks about the fascist qualities of "fall in line" crap. Not in those terms exactly. https://snyder.substack.com/p/fascist-froth
Also, love true ideological diversity, but genuinely disgusted by people who use their ideological history, be it left or right, as a device to posture to both sides a la Douthat and a long list of others. You know, I Hate Trump, but student loans. Or, in this case, count me never-Trump, but the Democrats are behaving like idiots, what with all this talking about reality. Like I said, planning to love Michael Steele for you.
I want Biden to drop out. I can see how others would want him to stay in... But regarding the notion that we should stop talking about this, I can't help but think, this is Biden's fault. I don't see how Tim and Bill and others should be faulted for having this discussion. Biden caused this, he truly screwed up, he let us down. No candidate for president should ever give a debate performance like that, we shouldn't have to excuse it or accept it. If Biden acted like that in a job interview, I can't believe that anyone would hire him to do pretty much anything. It was that bad.
And so it's only natural that this discussion is happening, and will keep happening for some time.
But you would hire a convicted felon who didn’t do anything productive and failed for 4 years upending the rule of law? Just asking..
No. No. and No.
Saying aloud that Biden is diminished, very obviously diminished in ways that every human who's spent time with elderly people can see, doesn't make that speaker a supporter of Trump or MAGA or their planned future.
perfect
if Biden truly is compromised cognitively, then we can’t blame him personally. the blame lies with his family, who is gaslighting him and all of us.
Allying with a Communist/Islamist, Red/Green antisemitic party was no way to prop up liberal democracy in France. Macron is a congenital panderer and a delusional jellyfish. 🪼https://www.politico.eu/article/magnificent-mind-emmanuel-macron-france-legislative-election/#:~:text=The%20president%20is%20a%20lonely,and%20carnage%20on%20French%20politics.&text=Lounging%20with%20Emmanuel%20Macron%20in,president%20who%20he%20confides%20in.
Trump is literally insane and his pronouncements are jibberish, meanwhile the media is worried that Biden is old!!!!
It's not just that the media is worried that Biden is old...voters are worried too. And it shows up in every poll. Just look at the CBS poll last week, where about 75% of voters don't think Biden has the mental/cognitive fitness to be President.
Yes, Donald Trump is absolutely awful, and he appears more insane than 8 years ago. I wish he'd go away forever. But it's a news story when an 81-year-old goes out and gives the kind of debate performance Biden did, and then does very little press the following week.
It is true, there are many concerns, Molly:) But to your serious point, there has been much greater scrutiny on Biden, and a disproportionate amount of nitpicking. I would say that was true up until the debate when Biden's own mind and body told me a truth I hadn't known before.
The media has report/failed to report and expressed/failed to express opinions reflecting "well, yeah, but that's Trump, everyone knows he's crazy, we don't have to say anything about that." The absence of honest reporting about Trump in the mainstream, however, does not diminish my worries about Biden's health issues that seem to be correlated with age and the stress of the job and a stressful personal life.
In November, it isn't about the media, it is about the soft Dems Tim mentioned, and any other swing/persuadable/double-hater voters in key locations.
I got to say I don’t always agree with Tim but he is doing a great job.
The only thing I really disagree with Tim on this pod is the idea that processing the case against Trump is so necessary. I mean, I haven’t met a single person that doesn’t have an opinion on Trump. The issue isn’t has the Biden administration or Biden himself hasn’t prosecuted the case against Trump ruthlessly but that it hasn’t really mattered. Now maybe the youth of Kamala is better than her than other drawbacks. I’m willing to believe that but I got to say I just don’t trust our voters to vote for…a woman…or a black person.
Bill frustrated me though. Bill note to self: Biden has reached out to Nikki voters: it’s called his policy on Israel, Ukraine, nato, upholding the rule of law, decreasing crime, etc. no one cares at all if Chris Christie campaigns for Biden. His own Vp has said he doesn’t have the moral fortitude to be president and it has made zero difference. This stuff just doesn’t matter anymore. Also, I know this is going to be tough to hear but they could do this on their own.
At what point does this talk stop? Biden and Harris have both said in no uncertain terms this isn’t happening… why are we still litigating the case? I’m sympathetic that this WAS an important discussion to have, but what purpose is being served now? What more needs to be said or done in order to convince you that Biden is the nominee? Waiting until the convention to accept that and put this to bed is unacceptable.
Nato summit
I agree. Joe has to keep up his stance while hosting NATO. After that, I’m hoping for a change.
I agree with Tim regarding the clip of Harris making the case much better than Biden can. She was a prosecutor. Remember when she was basically took Bill Barr apart? Kamala is more or less an empty vessel as VP because the Biden people never gave her any backing. Still another point is voters (generally) have seen her as doing very little beyond standing behind Biden with the covid mask on. Now I feel that Harris ran a lousy campaign for president in 2020. She never expressed a reason she should be president then. That was then but this is now. Right now Biden is losing every swing state Democrats need plus Georgia and Arizona. Whether it is an open convention or it is Harris, to quote a Bob Seeger song; "Turn the Page".
Agreed she made the case well but…I don’t think it matters. I never even heard that and I pay attention to the news. Shoot Biden has done like 5 or 7 events last week and I didn’t see much other than a clip about them. They just aren’t covered and I don’t think of Kamala became the nominee it would change that much either (hard to drown out crazy).
Also I’m not sure that people care about prosecuting the case against Trump. I mean, do you know anybody that doesn’t have an opinion on Trump? I don’t.
It's depressing how little coverage she gets; the White House has been putting her out there more, but I rarely hear any in depth discussions of what she's doing--or any discussion, really, except her campaign work on women's health issues. She goes to international meetings and we get pictures, but not much talk about what was accomplished. The coverage is all so lightweight. I wonder how much is a PR failure and how much is the media.
It’s not just her though. Biden doesn’t get much attention either (I’m not talking about editorials talking about how good or bad he is). Biden actually does a lot of events they just aren’t covered. Kamala has been doing a ton of events too. You know what her campaign team said “we can’t get anyone to show up!” Literally she invites national reporters on Air Force 2 to go with her to events they just don’t think it’s interesting. I highly recommend that you listen to the most relent Ezra Klein interview with a reporter that wrote a book about her. They talk about this in depths.
In my mind here is the fundamental problem: Biden and Harris are pretty normal run of the mill politicians. They are competing for coverage with an entire movement that is insane. They say and do crazy shit like every day. They just can’t breakthrough.
You never hear about Harris/biden meeting/events because they are boring but what the media wants is wwe.
What makes it worst is that because the media always has to be negative they only cover Biden or Harris when they make a mistake. We are immune to trumps crazy but dems mistakes make us think this happens all the time.
The WWE problem is real. Thanks for the tip about the Ezra interview; will look for it.
From last week. She also talks about her weaknesses and strengths but the part about the press just not being interested in anything she does says a lot.
Like I said this morning ;it is all about setting the narrative. Who is the referendum on.It is Biden and age and the debate. Not on Trump. It only will get worse. An open convention? There are always risks. As Sarah says; "it is all about defeating Trump".
Yep agree. I’m not trying to be argumentative but…how does it make the election about candidate a not Trump? I guess I don’t see how swapping someone else into the big chair does that.
Plus, this election will be about Trump period. That isn’t changing. He sucks all oxygen out of the room. He is incapable of NOT being the main thing.
Right now.Biden and age is the thing. And it is not like Trump has been Whip Van Winkle the past few years.
lol. True but if you swap Biden out you will get 5 weeks of who will the “candidate be?”
All bad options
I will say, Kamala has made some pretty damn good speeches over the past week or so. I honestly don't care who replaces Biden at this point, it's just indefensible to run an old man whose been stumbling like he has as of late. When he loses to Trump, history will look back on this and just go "How? How could they not have seen what was coming?" Still will vote for a ham sammich over a caked up Tangerine man but don't tell me Biden is the only one that has the goods to do it. It is such a weak argument.
How? Because people voted for trump. It won't be on Biden or on the Dems. It's solely on those that buy into what trump's selling.
A lot here is true. Although if he drops out and Kamala loses they will blame him as well. Might as well go out guns blazing.
Stuart Stevens might be a good option for a guest with an opposing viewpoint on Biden dropping out.
He's made sense from day one. But he has also come clean and has regretted being a part of the GOP agenda/machine that got us here.
Something Bill Kristol has never done.
To channel JVL, Stuart Stevens WILL be on the pod within a week.
I have thought, for some time now, that Biden was in deep trouble. I do not believe his image can be rehabbed. Even if you could prop it up until the election, people know it’s only going in one direction for the next 4 1/2 years. He should step down and preserve his wins for the books. Period.
The Biden team is going to end up letting Americans down if he doesn't step aside. Joe should serve out his term and allow Kamala to run. Or actually, maybe he should just step down and then Kamala would have the benefit of incumbency? Idk but Bidens advisors need to level with him. We are in such a horrible position.
If Biden withdraws his candidacy, he should also resign the presidency. The best way for Kamala to convince voters she is ready to be the president is to actually be the president.
Re: Project 2025: There will be a movement within MAGA which embraces some of the planks in this platform, this movement will swell, and soon Trump will be taking credit for every word of it. It is the standard life cycle for Trumpisms: I didn’t say that, If I did say it what’s so bad about it, and then of course I said that I was the first one who ever said that. Wait and watch.
There are segments of MAGA that will not be on board with Project 2025 and the Christian Nationalists. The Western and Mid Western libertarian types and the Posse Commitatus types who enjoy running their own county kingdoms. Has to be why Trump is lying about knowing anything about it or the Heritage Foundation and ripping the abortion and anti gay planks out of the platform. MAGA is not one big bed full of Trump cultists. There are fissures that can be exploited.
"The new American Revolution will be bloodless if the left allows it to be." I believe that's the quote of the week. Expose Project 2025. The msm has done a despicable job of informing the public about this until finally this week. You'd have thought the current president would've mentioned this is the debate or certainly the interview and yet still nothing. Camp david cram session what a bunch a BS.
I love the fact that Tim can play any random clip from the Rick Wilson on Michael Steele podcast and vicariously get an old-school explicit rating like the Charlie Sykes days...
RE: "Uncle 'God-Whisperer' Joe" [Please note, I voted for Joey in '20 and will again if he is candidate]
Let's start with a tribute to John F. Kennedy: "Johnny, We Hardly Knew Ye": Memories of John Fitzgerald Kennedy" written by two of his advisors.
and realize that now...
"Joey, We Definitely Know Ye Acts Like an 80-Something: Memories of Joseph Robinette Biden," writ-large over his 40+ year political career.
As Biden must remember his dad, a scattered-entrepreneur, saying, "Joey, most people are happy with what you did for them but the reality is they want to know what you (or a product) will do in the future." [Uncle Joe is projecting no vision for the future.]
Biden's declaration that only God's can move him decide to step down brings up a WTF???
How is this theological comment any different as the nonsensical (heretical) spoutings of Evangelicals for Trump??
Step down Joey --- let Kamala come forward (unlike Obama ass-kissing the Clintons in 2016) and put forth as VEEP J.B. Pritzker (D-IL-Governor), who could help with mega-donors and offer a slew of successful Rust-Belt policies.
The almighty will let him know, ehhhhahhh fuck me we're cooked
The problem is that Uncle Joe's reality of acting like an 80-something overshadows the crazy-batshit things that Trump says that no one can believe he's saying.
The "lame-stream" media (to coin a phrase) looks at Biden being Biden at 80+ years old as the story, but neglect the absolute insanity of Trump being Trump.
Even Hitler was as shit-house rat crazy as Trump,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDl5MW3ykhQ
Tim's point about soft dems getting their "news" from social media influencers is very correct and people who bash the media the hardest over Biden's lack of popularity really don't understand how much the political media diets of mainline voters--"low-attention voters" if you will--have moved off of the television set and onto social media apps. It's TikTok influencers that are killing Biden, not CNN or NYT coverage. The damage there is already done, and it was done by Biden's own hand.
This argument about how few people actually watched The Debate (~50M isn't small) is nonsense because people are seeing clips on social media. And these clips make it look even worse.
I'm not on Facebook, but my wife is. Just yesterday, in a group about raising chickens, there was a post about "chicken math" (if you've owned chickens, you may be familiar with the phenomenon) featuring a clip of a confused and frail looking Joe Biden from The Debate. No policy, no substance, nothing to help Joe; only the notion that you should either laugh at him or feel pitty for him. This is the impression I'm concerned about.
Bingo. Well put. A new candidate with a media blitz on socials etc should go along way. Hire the same people Obama had for his campaigns. They reinvented the wheel with their focus on internet ads. This shouldn't even be a debate at this point Everyday that Biden stays on this race, when he loses, I'm gonna be so crestfallen. This sucks so much I just want to put my head in the sand.
Some days, it makes me want to put my head in the oven.
Dude I'm so pissed off at the recklessness that's being displayed right now. Maybe he's staying on until after the NATO hosting this week, idk, but Bidens accomplishments will be destroyed under Trump. If only he would have such to bring a bridge to the next generation. Now he'll assuredly be a bridge to chaos. At this point it's FJB. Till the lord almighty tells him! Hey guys I'm sure that makes you feel soooooo much better lol. Hubristic, foolhardy bullshit. Fuck.
Allies do have diplomats and intelligence services. Those agencies are no doubt well informed about Biden's propects for reelection, probably better than the majority of Americans. And they're well aware of Trump's history regarding NATO. They aren't so foolish as to overlook the need to develope Plan B, even C, D .... The bigger problem for Ukraine must be Hungary with Orbán's connection to Putin and its economic conflicts with Poland.
As we have seen with a few of the Trump Trials that have managed to go forward the prosecutor vs Trump has been no contest and even the occasional juror who may been sympathetic to Trump were convinced. So rather than look for reasons to not choose her perhaps that should be her and Democratic Message for the next week 120 days
Why is it always that Dems don’t stick together? To quote George Conway “it’s either Joe or the felon”. We either choose freedom or fascism. Your choice!!! I choose freedom. MAGATS are counting on our dithering and infighting. Time to STOP and get behind Biden. We can’t forget the amazing job he did in less than 4 years with the enemy within. We all had a respite from the Trump chaos. Are you guys falling in line with them?
I mean, Tim addressed this straight-up in the podcast. He's not on a team, and that "support the team at all costs" mentality is dangerous to get into anyway. Joe Biden has done a good job as President, but it doesn't mean he's infallible, or that he's the right candidate to take on Donald Trump in such a critical election.
Donald Trump is just the incoherent, mendacious, unhinged mouthpiece for those behind Project 2025. All he knows is that he wants to be dictator so all he has to do is follow his usual Gish-gallop technique and everyone thinks that’s great. Fill the air with BS rapidly so no one can pick up any of his hundreds of lies. Biden’s advisors must keep reminding him that he’s not dealing with a normal creature.
If he'd done such a great job in four years with the enemy within, Trump's federal trials would already be over. He chose Garland as AG, and it's not clear Garland would have ever gone after Trump if not for the J6 committee.
This is just not true. Did you not see the SC decision that was handed down last week? That isn’t going to trial for 5 years. Nothing garland could have done changes the composition of the SC
Why the hell are we still here? Job one after Jan 6 was to disassemble this bullshit. Failure!
Well it seems like a lot of people don’t really care about what happened on j6th and even if they did a lot of them aren’t reachable. Not that hard to understand.
If telling people something was good was enough to get them to care a lot of things would be different. Unfortunately a lot of people don’t care what trump does unless it directly affects them. Sad reality. And even if you can point out how it will affect them they still won’t believe you because you are the wrong messenger.
Choosing Garland was his biggest mistake, I agree. Look all the other things he did to build back the country. Do you think the corrupt Supreme Court wouldn’t have interfered earlier if useless Garland had done his job? MAGAS in Congress and Senate sabotaged his administration at every turn. We need to go out in droves and do what France and the UK did: vote against fascism.
I will, I just want us to have the best chance to win.
I wrote this on Jvl’s newsletter today and it makes sense here.
Look all the choices suck. But there are few things that we need to stipulate with respect to this situation:
1. We might lose no matter what. Incumbents and incumbent parties are getting crushed everywhere.
2. The easiest path forward is Biden but it may not be the best.
3. Kamala is the second easiest path but she also might not be the right candidate.
4. There could be a better candidate than either Kamala or Biden. Shit, it’s likely!!! But, and this is the most important point: (1) the better candidate runs in this shitshow, (2) you have to trust that delegates can identify the better candidate in 5 weeks and (3) they will forget loyalty and interests and choose that candidate.
5. The process no matter how well it plays out will be (1) bad for Dems and (2) good for Trump for 6 weeks,
I still say give us any candidate but Biden at this point.
Like I said that could work. Probably a low probability event but it’s possible.
Biden stays in. If he dies while in office, we know Kamala can do the job. They should campaign aggressively, together and separately. Congressional democrats cannot wimp out but support the ticket. And they all need to campaign aggressively against the republicans.
oh okay boss thanks for your commands. wtf
I thought this was a good discussion, even though I didn't agree with it. I'm neither sold on Biden stepping down or staying in, but admittedly leaning towards him staying in. I felt like I haven't heard a compelling case for Biden to step down, it's a lot of superficial things, and I don't feel the strategy is there. And I don't think a constant criticism will disappear with a new candidate, I think it will be something different, the narrative of Biden is old is there and all they got. I feel it is too much of an unknown what another will look like, and I'm not comfortable with that and haven't heard a case where I am. I think we had the failed experiment of anyone but Trump in 2016, and even with Trump's record, Trump's support still has a firm bottom.
I do agree with Bill and Tim that all this talk won't hurt Biden, I think it will help because you have all said you will still support him if he does stay in the race, and it is things that are on everyone's mind. The only thing I think it does hurt Biden is that we aren't talking enough about anything else going on in the world because we are fixed on this. I understand making the case now and immediately would be important if you think he should step down, and since it's July, I'm not worried about it lingering into November.
I think it's still very early for Biden to turn this campaign around (of course if he stays in). And in fairness to him, he has done a ton of campaign events since the horrible debate, and honestly I missed them because all we talked about was the debate performance and how he had to go out there, which he was.
Watch the debate again
Totally agreed, my biggest problem with these past 2 weeks and everyone going insane over Biden is I never once heard a convincing case that Kamala would be better. It seemed that the argument reasoning stopped at “she’s different so she must be better”. It was always rooted in pure optimism and best case scenario thinking and I never heard (especially from Bulwark) people talking about the downfalls of Kamala.
I've listened to the arguments and I've only heard equal or worse ideas for replacement plans. No good ones.
The debate was bad but this jump to dementia is just ridiculous at this point. Honestly, he had a raspy voice and pretending people on a bad day of an illness don't lose their thoughts is silly. I've seen it from Sarah and JVL on these very podcasts. The difference is the stakes aren't nearly as high. There is a precedent for people needing bed rest to treat an illness, I don't know why that is news.
If we're talking what people see and how they react, then we have an actual conversation of what that means politically, but there's no evidence the mentally compromised Biden.
Check the polling
Secondly, if you're referring to the polling that asks if Biden is too old to run/shouldn't be running, I'm not quite sure what to conclude from that. I don't doubt that and I'm of course not trying to argue that is advantageous by any means, but what does that tell us? I don't take that to mean they won't vote for him. I also don't take that to mean they would be particulary more thrilled with a Kamala ticket... I think they are simply answering the question posed. I think you re-poll those same people after they go to the voting booth and they still pick his name over Trump.
The polling is unconvincing coming off a historically bad night IMO. I’m not surprised in the least that people jumped at the chance to poll for a new name… but given how historically unpopular Kamala is I would be truly shocked if that polling did not go down 3,4,5,6 points if she were to be the nominee
I tend to be where you are although I think all this media and talk about Biden’s age will hurt him. No idea how much but it will some with people who don’t pay attention because it is in the blood stream now. Not saying this means that we shouldn’t talk about it but in general I don’t think it’s helpful for dems and Biden.
Your last part on media attention is key. All this talk drowns out the insanity of Trump. If we dropped Biden I think Trump basically gets a free pass for 7 weeks and you get a million articles talking about”dem in disarray.”
Jeeze, it's not his age, it's
the irreversible diminished capacity
Not sure I understand your point. Age is just a proxy for (waves hand furiously) for everything.
Agreed, I think it has made people a lot more uneasy and skeptical of Biden—more than Biden made them on his own.
What bothers me is Favreau and some of the Bulwark folks chalk it up to this being “responsible and a healthy thing for a party to do” but yet seem blissfully ignorant to the consequences of this 2 week attack.
I don't know. I think it is healthy because we all saw it was bad and we can admit we aren't voting for a performer, we're voting for policy. Maybe it will at least get a few people to understand the President doesn't need to sing and dance. I think there would be a net gain of voters if we are clear we have some concerns and aren't blindly supporting Biden. Otherwise we just look like a cult like the other side, and I feel that's a way to get others to sit out.
I don’t think it’s bad for partisan. We are going to vote for anyone. I think it’s bad for a huge swath of voters who don’t pay attention. It’s just “dems in disarray”
I can see it both ways, so I'm not solid on it helping or hurting. I think addressing the elephant in the room is relevant but too much will eventually hurt. I mainly think how the discussions are had are important. The first days out of the debate, I thought the discussions here were over the top and reactionary. Now, the discussions are more productive even if I disagree. I do look forward to Tim talking to someone on the keep Biden side of things.
To an extent I agree but I’ll posit this: I don’t think there is anything Biden could do or could have done (other than not have a shit debate) to take these attacks. He does an unscripted event that goes well. Why not 3 more. “Oh he stumbled on this question or that question.” He literally has been doing things but they aren’t “enough” for the media. He doesn’t town hall “well why won’t he sit down with the times?” They will keep raising the bar.
Could be wrong.
I agree with most of that. I think right now, it's not bad. But within 2 weeks this will be settled one way or the other. And after it's clear if Biden stays or goes, then it would be damaging.
Agree with the conclusion but let me posit the following.
I like bill scher who is a good dem. On today’s podcast he thinks Biden has Parkinson’s because one of his doctors is a specialist neurological disorders. Like an hour ago that doctor released a statement on all his findings and that Biden doesn’t have Parkinson’s. His response “well did you do a test yesterday.” Like they fall for something the right wing media started, ask for evidence then get it and say not enough I need more. He could have the doctor do a press conference and people will say get a different independent doctor (which doesn’t exist) is needed other than this national specialist. That’s just acting like a Republican base voter. There is nothing Biden can do to dissuade these media attacks in my mind right now. Only time will help.
Ah. Yeah. I see what you mean. I think the media is already getting bored with this drama, so I expect this to go just to the fringes soon.
What consquences?
I agree with you Matthew, Migs, and OP Andy K. The massive amount of attention being given to this is not just Bill and Tim, and them sloughing it off as if it’s similar to the head-to-head Obama/clinton fight is wrong. The press didn’t take sides in that fight! So many press outlets are directly trying to take Biden down.
I also think that so many points Bill &Tim make as “of course this is fact” are debatable, at the least. I’m hopeful that this is the last “double-doubters” hate fest on the Bulwark and that someone who can challenge these “obvious truths” will be there (for my sanity). Questions and debate are ok, even at this late stage, but calling for him to get out or we definitely LOSE is irresponsible. IMHO
Yes, I support Biden and Kamala, and we get Kamala even if we stay this course. She is dynamite. Joe has never been a glib campaigner - I’ve seen him in person and he’s much better in the meet/greet stuff. He always had issues talking, stuttering, and gets little empathy, much less congratulations, for doing so well with this handicap. Like “The King’s Speech,” I wish we could highlight the bravery it takes to face that down.
So yeah, we ARE doing damage by stating this NOT as questions but as fact that Joe is not capable, that the past doesn’t matter (come on, don’t run on your record??), and that he has to cover every issue in every speech.
Oh most definitely. There are risks are everywhere. There is no comparison between this and HRC VS. OBAMA. NONE. those were actual primaries. This is some unknown delegates somewhere choosing for dems. Very very different. I also don’t think that bill and Tim that Obama and HRC were universally known. Other Kamala these governors are completely unknown.
I love Kamala. I would hope she could win. I just don’t trust our voters. Too racist and sexist.
Yeah I don’t by that (that talking about it is helpful). This would be like saying “that 6 month negotiating about Build, Back,Better was really helpful to Dems because it shows the American people how sausage is made.” Sure it does but 6 months of “dems in disarray” didn’t make voters comfortable with dems.”
Right. And Tim keeps saying Biden isn’t providing a forward looking message but Tim hasn’t given me a forward looking message on Kamala that doesn’t rely on the assumption she’s gonna play a perfect game and nothing will go wrong.
I completely agree. I haven't seen a compelling case. The calls for replacement sound too much like "well anyone can beat Trump" and that didn't work out in 2016
Yeah I honestly don’t know. There are risks everywhere and the risk of the unknown is MASSIVE but the upside is also their (but a smaller probability event).
The problem of a generic dem is they…become non-generic really fucking fast.
Yeah. I think the people who are convinced Biden needs to be replaced have not thought out what could go wrong on your last point
Yep. It’s like they think whatever happens the party comes out united and the candidate has nothing to attack which would be great but is impossible. The problem is no one has any idea who these candidates are OTHER than Kamala and Biden so they project their hopes and dreams. Then they speak and all of a sudden they have positions you disagree with and then the projection starts. Also the republicans have a say here too. They will define these candidates really fast
Yes. I felt Rick Wilson's summary of the convention is a very likely scenario. With Biden, there are some things we can control with the narrative. We are in completely unknown territory with a replacement.
Yeah I don’t know where I stand on that either. I mean he has forward looking policies like making roe legal, pushing Russia out of Ukraine, replacing justices on the court, etc but I don’t really know what else Tim wants him to do. The chances dems win the senate is almost zero in my mind. I mean nothing is going to get done (unfortunately).
I guess I’ll lay my cards out: I think America is deeply troubled and I view my fellow citizens with a lot of disdain. I just don’t believe that voters in the right states will vote for a woman or a black person or a gay person or a Jewish person, etc. As much as people complain about our politicians are old (which is true) it’s because a lot of white people wont vote for anyone that isn’t a man and white.
Jb was the nominee because he had massive name id and because he was old and white and dems said after HRC “we can’t do this again.”
Yeah, I think what Tim (and Bill) mean moreso is forcefully defending why he should stay in the race and a forward looking path to beating Trump in November as opposed to what he’s been doing which is sort of dismissive of peoples views. I’m not sure, I suppose I see they’re point but I also don’t think it matters and I think they’d poke holes regardless of what he had to say.
To your broader point, I unfortunately agree. I think the circumstances surrounding Trump 2.0 to create a potential for people to get on board with a Black Woman when they otherwise may not have but I think that assumption is also a bit overly optimistic.
Yeah I hear you making the forceful case but I’m honestly not sure what he would say that could ever convince bill. I mean what should he say? They get mad at him when he says “I don’t believe the polls” but also “I’m going to give it my all and win.” I feel like they are just fishing for the perfect statement that says “I fucked up and I’m losing” but “im losing and I will turn it around with x, y, and z.” I also think they would then pivot to well another candidate can do x, y and z.
What I feel like they are missing is (1) they think because no one really knows who these good dem governors are their popularity will go up (it’s equally likely to go down and (2) not grappling with Americans will then question can candidate x really be a good president.
Biden is basically saying you should and will vote for me because I’m fighting for you and I have been successful fighting for you. The problem is no one gives two shits how great of a president Biden has been because people hate incumbents (true everywhere)
I’m going to throw a theory I have at you: Biden’s problem is not age, it’s incumbency. Don’t get me wrong the debate was shit and he is old and people don’t like that. However I think it’s a parking spot for the anger and vindictiveness. It’s true EVERYWHERE. It doesn’t matter if you are left, center, right, far right, old, young, or semi-authoritarian. Literally every incumbent everywhere is losing and losing big.
I think you’re definitely onto something there… people seem to get much more dissatisfied much quicker nowadays and whether it’s justified or not, they take it out on the incumbent. Economy is the perfect example of this… Biden gets blamed for the rocky economy and even though he’s navigated it very well people are upset and therefore it’s his fault. I’m not sure our attention spans as a collective country can handle someone for 8 years straight anymore.
Of course we can. But tad to why we should keep the old white man:
Old is more than years. It’s the collection of years of experience both in the Senate and then with Obama as VP and global messenger/advocate for peace and whatever Obama wanted him to do. He learned about the statesmen of all different countries,
What troubles those countries and work with to fix it. He started peace negations with Israel and the Saudis, was going great until Hamss’ little jolt. 3 month war and Hamas is willing to settle with his peace plan
His charm and good will captured opponents. His good sense continued it. From my pov, he’s the one to convince
the Israeli
government to stand down
That will be hard as Netinyahu will go to jail right after.
I honestly don’t have any idea what you are trying to say. The war has been going on for 8 months now and it splits his base AND unfortunately he is pinned in because (1) Israel is broadly popular in the us electorate and (2) bibi won’t listen to anything we say anyways.
Thankfully Project 2025 is hitting the msm. I mean, more than Rachael Maddow!
That will be a big football for Trump to carry, and will show people just what’s in store. Joe bashing will be a thing of the past.
I almost feel worse about it hitting the mainstream. In the past Trump owned everything and put his ego above his electoral prospects at times. This time around he is locked in on winning. The 2020 Trump would've never disavowed the 2025 project or made sure the anti-abortion language is stripped down and out of his message. It tells me he is on his A game and will do what it takes to win including staying disciplined in a debate form and disavowing the worst elements.
Trump's disavowal of Project 2025 is a bald faced lie that should be screamed from the Bulwark. That's reality, what we've been getting is a wallow in hypotheticals for the past week. Can we please get back to reality.
It's not Project 2025 specifically. It's just the observation that Trump is running a far better campaign in 2024 than he did in either 2016 & 2020. And Biden is running a far worse campaign than in 2020. He barely won last time and is significantly behind now.
I always thought Trump could beat anyone this year. But the momentum he is gaining now makes it hard to see how a Democrat could even get to 35% chance. And Biden might have a cap less than that.
It's just not great anyway you look. I've been a huge fan of Biden and him running again to avoid a contested primary but its changed and he's too damaged.
You are so correct. I don't know whom I'm more upset with at this point, Biden or his shitty advisors who seem unable to see the writing on the wall. It's written in blood for Christ's sake. If I had a time machine back to July 2023, I'd choose Shapiro/Whitmer or vis versa, Wes Moore/Liz Cheney. Either of those two would trounce Tangerine bronzer.
Love having Michael Steele to listen too….based on number of comments each Monday seems that the Bulwark may have to a “Serious” conversation with Mr. Kristol, cuz like Joe Biden he is stubbornly sticking to the old song and it ain’t trending as the kids like to say.
Sorry to nitpick, but wondering why the first thing this paid subscriber hears is Tim reading an ad
True dat
I think after that debate if we do hear any ads right now as paid members, it should be for Xanax or stress relief oils...
oops-- we'll take care of that!
Swapped out the audio. Thanks for letting us know!