If I remember, the polls had Hilary winning. She didn't. My hope and belief is that as the election nears, and Ds do their job highlighting what Biden's done and what Trump plans to do, especially now that he's picked a dangerous intelligent VP, people will wake up.
If I remember, the polls had Hilary winning. She didn't. My hope and belief is that as the election nears, and Ds do their job highlighting what Biden's done and what Trump plans to do, especially now that he's picked a dangerous intelligent VP, people will wake up.
I hope so too. But 538 had Trump at 30% chance to win in 2016 (everywhere else had him less than 2%) precisely because of a dynamic that a polling error to him in Midwest states could carry over.
The reality is if these polls hold till the election Joe Biden won't be able to win. He needs to get back to where he was pre-debate nationally and then add at least a couple points just to have a decent chance of defying the odds. That is highly unlikely to happen. Right now in poker terms the flop hit Trump big and Biden at this point has at best a backdoor runner straight and flush draw. If the turn comes wrong he's drawing dead. Even if it comes right he still needs to river a victory.
They've never been useless before. Sure you can have an occasional Democratic or Republican push poll or you can have an outlier but if anything they bias against the Democrats in the last two presidential elections. If the polls hold even close to what they are it will be 2012 again at best with zero chance of Joe Biden winning. That's just fact not conjecture. If somehow Joe Biden were to turn around his polls in Pennsylvania and get lucky and edge out Michigan and Wisconsin he has a chance. But the map is horrific for him far worse than last time. He won't even try to compete in multiple states he won last time.
If I remember, the polls had Hilary winning. She didn't. My hope and belief is that as the election nears, and Ds do their job highlighting what Biden's done and what Trump plans to do, especially now that he's picked a dangerous intelligent VP, people will wake up.
I hope so too. But 538 had Trump at 30% chance to win in 2016 (everywhere else had him less than 2%) precisely because of a dynamic that a polling error to him in Midwest states could carry over.
The reality is if these polls hold till the election Joe Biden won't be able to win. He needs to get back to where he was pre-debate nationally and then add at least a couple points just to have a decent chance of defying the odds. That is highly unlikely to happen. Right now in poker terms the flop hit Trump big and Biden at this point has at best a backdoor runner straight and flush draw. If the turn comes wrong he's drawing dead. Even if it comes right he still needs to river a victory.
If the polls are anything like the ones I've gotten, they less than useless and mean nothing. I've seen nothing that changes that.
They've never been useless before. Sure you can have an occasional Democratic or Republican push poll or you can have an outlier but if anything they bias against the Democrats in the last two presidential elections. If the polls hold even close to what they are it will be 2012 again at best with zero chance of Joe Biden winning. That's just fact not conjecture. If somehow Joe Biden were to turn around his polls in Pennsylvania and get lucky and edge out Michigan and Wisconsin he has a chance. But the map is horrific for him far worse than last time. He won't even try to compete in multiple states he won last time.