Calling Trump’s Win a ‘Mandate’ Is Ridiculous. Here’s Why.
The numbers show that voters wanted an end to the status quo, not the future policy agenda Trump is offering.
AS DONALD TRUMP AND HIS ALLIES lay plans for his second term, they’re hammering one word.
“The American people gave President Trump a mandate,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin told CNN on Sunday. On ABC, Sen. Bill Hagerty concurred: “The mandate that came from the American public is overwhelming.”
It’s normal to say you have a mandate after winning an election. Trump’s staff did as much after the 2016 election, when he didn’t even win the popular vote. If the claim is believed this time around, it could intimidate Democrats and embolden Republicans in Congress.
But when you look closely at what voters actually think, there’s no mandate for a Trump agenda.
Two massive polls of the 2024 electorate—the network exit poll and the VoteCast survey used by Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, and other outlets—show that Trump won the election because voters rejected the status quo and had positive memories of his first term. But on most issues, they oppose what Republicans want to do in his second term.
VoteCast included two questions that largely explain Trump’s victory: whether the country was headed in the right direction and how voters assessed each candidate’s record.
Seventy percent of voters believed the country was heading in the wrong direction. Among that 70 percent, two-thirds voted for Trump.
Forty percent of voters said Kamala Harris had been “tested and delivered negative results” compared to only 35 percent who said she had been “tested and delivered positive results.” For Trump, the balance was reversed: 49 percent said he had delivered positive results compared to 45 percent who said he had delivered negative results.
What’s notable about these two questions is that they’re retrospective. They don’t refer to the current Trump-GOP agenda. And that agenda, item by item, ranges from politically tenuous to clearly unpopular.
Deportations. VoteCast found broad support for limiting asylum claims at the border. And some polls of registered voters or all Americans—not specifically the 2024 electorate—suggest that the concept of deporting illegal immigrants is popular. But when VoteCast and the exit poll presented a choice between deportations and the liberal alternative—offering a “chance to apply for legal status”—most voters (about 55 percent) preferred to offer legal status.
Tariffs. When VoteCast asked about “increasing taxes on goods imported to the U.S. from other countries,” voters split almost evenly: 49 percent in favor, 50 percent against. Polls taken since the election suggest that the political balance might tip slightly in Trump’s favor when the word “tariffs” is used instead of “taxes,” but the balance tips against Trump when the tariffs are substantial. In general, the numbers indicate that if the public feels the cost of tariffs, sentiment will turn against them.
Energy. If Trump drives down the price of gas, people will be happy. But that doesn’t mean they prefer “Drill, baby, drill” to energy diversification. When VoteCast presented a choice between two approaches to energy policy, only 43 percent of voters preferred to “focus on expanding production of fossil fuels, such as oil and gas.” Most (55 percent) preferred to “focus on expanding use of alternative energy, such as solar and wind.”
Ukraine. In surveys that don’t screen for voter registration, Americans are closely divided on military aid to Ukraine. But when VoteCast posed that question to the 2024 electorate, most voters (55 percent to 44 percent) said they favored “continuing aid to Ukraine in the war against Russia.”
Abortion. Trump often says he’s pro-life with “the exceptions”—rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother. That’s a tiny fraction of abortions, and it puts him in a distinct political minority. In the VoteCast sample and the exit poll, more than 60 percent of voters said abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Only about a third said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.
Some Republicans in Congress think they can make this a winning issue by allowing abortion through 15 weeks. But in the VoteCast survey, a narrow majority (53 percent to 46 percent) opposed “banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy nationwide.”
Health care. If Republicans try to roll back Obamacare, they’re in for trouble. In the VoteCast sample, most voters (57 percent) said they wanted the government to be more involved in “ensuring that Americans have healthcare coverage.” Only 21 percent said the government should be less involved.
Trump and his party will also face blowback if their proposed secretary of health and human services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., messes with vaccines. In the VoteCast survey, only 22 percent of voters said they wanted the government to be less involved in “ensuring that children are vaccinated for childhood diseases.” Fifty percent said they wanted the government to do more, and another 26 percent favored the government’s current level of involvement.
Guns. Trump said Harris would “take away your guns,” and he pledged to defend the Second Amendment. But in the VoteCast survey, most voters (57 percent) said gun laws should be “more strict.” Only 12 percent said they should be loosened.
Transgender rights. Most voters share Trump’s feeling that the left has overreached on this issue. In the VoteCast poll, 55 percent said “support for transgender rights in government and society” had gone too far; only 22 percent said it hadn’t gone far enough. But when the poll asked about specific government interventions, some voters got queasy. A slight majority (51 percent to 47 percent) opposed “laws that ban gender-affirming medical treatment, such as puberty blockers and hormone therapy, for minors under the age of 18 who identify as transgender.”
Extremism. In the exit poll, 54 percent of voters said Trump’s views were too extreme. In the VoteCast sample, 46 percent said they were very concerned about Trump’s extremism, and nearly 60 percent said they were at least somewhat concerned. Clearly, some of these people voted for him anyway. But it’s a sign that their support for him is tenuous.
Authoritarianism. In the VoteCast survey, 45 percent of voters said they were very concerned that electing Trump would “bring the U.S. closer to being an authoritarian country, where a single leader has unchecked power.” Another 10 percent said they were somewhat concerned. That’s a 55 percent majority—less than it should be, given his autocratic threats and behavior, but a decent base to start with as we prepare to defend the Constitution.
No serious person disputes that Trump won the election. He got the Electoral College and a plurality of the popular vote. But that doesn’t mean most people who cast ballots in this election were giving him a mandate to pursue his party's agenda. According to the only surveys that polled them, they weren’t.