The Alitos’ Monty Hall Problem
Plus: Can/will Nikki do the right thing?
Recently in The Bulwark:
MARTYN WENDELL JONES & ANDREW EGGER: Biden's Inflation Spin is Ridiculous
JVL: Trump Mode 🔐
JOE PERTICONE: Former NBA Draft Pick Is the GOP’s Latest Unhinged Senate Candidate
Overtime is for everyone. If you’re a subscriber: thank you. If you’re not, there’s no better time to subscribe to Bulwark+ than today. If you like today’s issue, you can share this newsletter with someone you think would value it.
PAUL ROSENZWEIG: The Alitos’ Monty Hall Problem
WHAT DO MARTHA-ANN ALITO AND MONTY HALL have in common? Quite a bit, as it turns out. And therein hangs a tale about credulity and a mathematician named Thomas Bayes.
Here’s the background: The news broke recently that Justice Samuel Alito’s house flew an upside-down American flag for several days in January 2021, immediately after the January 6th assault on the Capitol. This was at a time when Justice Alito and the Supreme Court were considering several legal challenges to the election results by then-President Trump (all eventually unsuccessful). The upside-down flag (typically flown as a sign of maritime distress) was considered by some of President Trump’s supporters to be a symbol of their movement and their attempt to keep President Trump in power. Many were flown at the Capitol as it was stormed.
🎥 PODCASTS AND VIDEOS 🎧
Bulwark Podcast with Tim Miller: Rick Wilson: The Reich Stuff
Across the Movie Aisle: Why 'The Idea of You' Doesn't Really Work
Just Between Us: Do the Right Thing, Nikki
Did you know? Bulwark+ members can listen to an ad-free version of these podcasts on the player of their choice.
Learn more at Bulwark+ Podcast FAQ.
MARTYN WENDELL JONES: The Anxious Anti-Politics of Counter-Strike
IF YOU ARE A MILLENNIAL LIKE ME, or you’re a person of any generation even slightly familiar with esports, you’re probably aware of Counter-Strike, the longstanding tactical first-person shooter (FPS) franchise. CS, as it’s frequently abbreviated, pits a squad of terrorists trying to plant and detonate a bomb against a squad of counter-terrorists trying to stop them. (If you would like a fuller introduction to the game or a reminder of what it’s like, check out this delightfully entertaining video from Girlfriend Reviews on YouTube.) Counter-Strike’s premise was first developed in 1999 as a mod for one of the foundational FPS titles, Half-Life, and since then, CS has grown to become the world’s preeminent competitive shooter. More recently, it also has gained many unfortunate real-world interfaces with the ongoing war in Ukraine.
A.B. STODDARD: Can Nikki Haley Do the Right Thing?
NIKKI HALEY’S DECISION HAS LOOMED for more than a year, since she launched a presidential campaign in February 2023 to earn the votes of a party that belonged to Donald Trump. She will soon have to embrace his planned autocracy or choose to separate herself from the GOP and risk ending her political career.
Her choice could affect millions of votes. A Trump endorsement would tell disaffected Republicans who support her that abiding the former president’s quest for unchecked power is acceptable. Should she abstain from offering Trump her support, Haley would join his former vice president and multiple high-ranking officials from his first administration who have deemed him unfit to serve again. It would earn her instant MAGA banishment.
🚨OVERTIME🚨
Happy Tuesday! The Cleveland Guardians are doing their Cleveland Guardians thing. Again (Forbes).
🎵On the Jukebox…🎵… Come for the Billy Joel cover of Italian Restaurant, but stay for the Weird Al cameo.
Mike Johnson loses… a trio of key policy aides (Punchbowl).
How the $17 Desk Salad… Won (Businessweek).
I guess you could say… The courts unleashed the MacCracken (Denver Post)
“An economic death sentence…” A Trump second term potentially means “all migration” is on the line.
I guess Royce White didn’t like… Joe Perticone’s Press Pass! Thanks for reading!
Tech support questions? Email members@thebulwark.com. Questions for me? Respond to this message.
—30—
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. For full credits, please consult the article.