I think a lot of the "Nate (Silver) Hate" is kind of overblown. That being said, his relative silence about Polymarket potentially being gamed by MAGA is worth noting. Also, what do you think the odds are that Elon placed a bet on Polymarket to make it look like his visit to PA boosted Trump?
I’ve never even bought a lottery ticket I’m so risk-averse with money. Plus I have a soul, tattered and battered as it is, which automatically makes me a loser in capitalism because I am unwilling to exploit others for personal gain. Corporate PACs are an abomination to liberal democracy, but the Citizens United case makes so much more sense when you understand that conservative SCOTUS Justices have been bought.
Here’s hoping we put Allred in the Senate and can get meaningful SCOTUS reform passed into law! Go vote Texas!
Sharice Davids is a Kansas Democratic rep! Not from Oklahoma. I know many can’t make the distinction between KS and OK but please remember we also have a Democratic governor in KS. Please pay closer attention to the details and facts in your posts.
As a SF Giants fan, I must hate the Dodgers. It's in the contract, we sign it in blood. When Mookie Betts was traded to LA, he complained to high heaven! Until the Dodgers sweetened the deal. I have joked with my Giants loving friends he should go to NY as Mookie Metts, his face on their mascot. More on point it to reverse the first letters. Bookie Metts. Ex players are now hawking gambling aps. Never learn, how about 1919? Dear God, we are stupid.
I would not recommend sending Biden vitamins or any other consumables. The Secret Service has enough to worry about right now without having to investigate whether some gambling addict is trying to poison POTUS with Flintstones.
I've always heard that betting odds boil down to this, and only this: the house always wins. It does not mean Harris is down or up, and it wouldn't mean the opposite was true. As the magats say: follow the money. Who's got their finger on the scale when it's run by bots? The house. Separately, but related, this is end of Rome shit.
Polymarket isn't estimating vote share, like the polls, but win probability. The two are not the same. If the polls were consistently (and believably) showing one candidate leading 60%-40% in a particular state (well outside the margin of error), that would result in a close to 100% win probabilty on Polymarket for that state, not a 60% win probabilty. Even within the margin of error, vote share is effective exagerated when moving to win probability.
For the actual outcome of the election this is complicated by the electoral college, but even in a world where we directly elected the president by national vote share, a few points of difference in vote share would result in a significantly larger difference in win probability.
This is all incomprehensible. Twitter is not real life, and Polymarket is not a scientific polling operation. Why are there lots of people on Polymarket putting money on Donald Trump? Because Joe Biden’s economy is fantastic, and Harris voters aren’t crypto cult morons.
Thank you, Joe, for your fair & important twice-weekly summaries!
I think a lot of the "Nate (Silver) Hate" is kind of overblown. That being said, his relative silence about Polymarket potentially being gamed by MAGA is worth noting. Also, what do you think the odds are that Elon placed a bet on Polymarket to make it look like his visit to PA boosted Trump?
1/1
I’ve never even bought a lottery ticket I’m so risk-averse with money. Plus I have a soul, tattered and battered as it is, which automatically makes me a loser in capitalism because I am unwilling to exploit others for personal gain. Corporate PACs are an abomination to liberal democracy, but the Citizens United case makes so much more sense when you understand that conservative SCOTUS Justices have been bought.
Here’s hoping we put Allred in the Senate and can get meaningful SCOTUS reform passed into law! Go vote Texas!
McDonalds quarter million with cheese …
Sharice Davids is a Kansas Democratic rep! Not from Oklahoma. I know many can’t make the distinction between KS and OK but please remember we also have a Democratic governor in KS. Please pay closer attention to the details and facts in your posts.
Best newsletter in my inbox.
Wait I thought US citizens can't legally bet on Polymarket.
Crypto gambling! Pete Rose must be twirling in his newly dug grave!
As a SF Giants fan, I must hate the Dodgers. It's in the contract, we sign it in blood. When Mookie Betts was traded to LA, he complained to high heaven! Until the Dodgers sweetened the deal. I have joked with my Giants loving friends he should go to NY as Mookie Metts, his face on their mascot. More on point it to reverse the first letters. Bookie Metts. Ex players are now hawking gambling aps. Never learn, how about 1919? Dear God, we are stupid.
Pt barnum was right.
As a former SEC enforcement attorney, I am always delighted when new ways to part fools from their money arise.
I would not recommend sending Biden vitamins or any other consumables. The Secret Service has enough to worry about right now without having to investigate whether some gambling addict is trying to poison POTUS with Flintstones.
Wait. This sounds like a goodbye. Is this a goodbye? I don't want it to be that. Is this why you haven't been on any pods or videos? What's going on?
I've always heard that betting odds boil down to this, and only this: the house always wins. It does not mean Harris is down or up, and it wouldn't mean the opposite was true. As the magats say: follow the money. Who's got their finger on the scale when it's run by bots? The house. Separately, but related, this is end of Rome shit.
Just a few decades ago it was the dawn of the Age of Aquarius. It's all a matter of perspective.
Polymarket isn't estimating vote share, like the polls, but win probability. The two are not the same. If the polls were consistently (and believably) showing one candidate leading 60%-40% in a particular state (well outside the margin of error), that would result in a close to 100% win probabilty on Polymarket for that state, not a 60% win probabilty. Even within the margin of error, vote share is effective exagerated when moving to win probability.
For the actual outcome of the election this is complicated by the electoral college, but even in a world where we directly elected the president by national vote share, a few points of difference in vote share would result in a significantly larger difference in win probability.
Sharice Davids is a congress woman from eastern Kansas, not Oklahoma. And she is a great congresswoman!
This is all incomprehensible. Twitter is not real life, and Polymarket is not a scientific polling operation. Why are there lots of people on Polymarket putting money on Donald Trump? Because Joe Biden’s economy is fantastic, and Harris voters aren’t crypto cult morons.