Democrats: All Your Base Are Belong to Us
Plus: JVL is finally Walzpilled.
Tonight after Kamala Harris wraps, the team will be getting together for an immediate livestream over on the YouTube channel.
Come and hang out!
1. Outreach
Last night the Democratic party served notice that it is not satisfied with its coalition of African Americans, Hispanics, progressives, urbanites, suburbanites, union workers, and educated professionals.
Democrats are making a play for rural white voters, too.
It was an extraordinary piece of programming aimed at the heart of the Republican coalition and it suggests that Kamala Harris is not trying to win a narrow, blue-wall victory. She’s making a play for a realigning election.
Look at who the convention featured last night:
Tim Walz, the former high school teacher and football coach who’s a gun owner and hunter.
Oprah Winfrey, the high-priestess of grocery-store checkout aisle middle-America, who proudly affirmed her status as a registered independent.
Geoff Duncan, the former lieutenant governor of Georgia who explained that voting for Kamala Harris doesn’t make you a Democrat.
A gaggle of middle-aged, former high school football players in their jerseys.
Assorted veterans, police officers, and sheriffs.
Testimonials from a bunch of guys like this dude:
Andrew Clark runs the Trump War Room and he tweeted this out last night while Walz was speaking:
How droll. But Clark missed the point. Entirely. Democrats were declaring that they aren’t content to win just with their voters. They want his voters, too. And this guy is too daft to understand it.1
Another consistent theme of the night was that Democrats do not blame Republican voters for voting for Trump. Speakers went out of their way to declare that Trump voters are good people, the very salt of the earth.
I’ve lived in Mississippi, in Tennessee, in Wisconsin, Maryland, Indiana, Florida, Hawaii, Colorado, California, and sweet home Chicago, Illinois. I have actually traveled this country from the redwood forest—love those redwoods—to the Gulf Stream waters. I’ve seen racism and sexism and income inequality and division. I’ve not only seen it; at times, I’ve been on the receiving end of it.
But more often than not, what I’ve witnessed and experienced are human beings, both conservative and liberal, who may not agree with each other, but who would still help you in a heartbeat if you were in trouble. These are the people who make me proud to say that I am an American. They are the best of America.
Growing up in a small town like that, you learn how to take care of each other. That family down the road, they may not think like you do, they may not pray like you do. They may not love like you do. But they’re your neighbors. And you look out for them. And they look out for you. Everybody belongs. And everybody has a responsibility to contribute. . . .
But not everyone has that same sense of responsibility. Some folks just don’t understand what it takes to be a good neighbor. Take Donald Trump and JD Vance.
The proposition Democrats offered, over and over, was that Trump voters were good people who had been led astray by bad leaders. And instead of hectoring them or criticizing them, Walz and company welcomed them as friends and called them home.
Donald Trump’s ceiling is somewhere in the neighborhood of 46.5 percent of the national vote. His only path to victory is a narrow band in which he’s able to turn out just enough of his low-propensity voters in three to five states to draw a slim Electoral College victory.
The Harris campaign served notice last night that it is not interested in fighting trench warfare in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This campaign is comfortable enough with its base that it sees the opportunity to take from Trump and blow the map wide open. This is a ticket that wants to compete in North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and maybe even Texas.
The contrast with the Republican convention is kind of shocking when you think about it.
In Milwaukee the Republicans trotted out Hulk Hogan and Dana White, Kid Rock and JD Vance. There was no play for the center: The entire theory of the campaign put forward by that convention was that Trump will win by cranking up the animating spirits of the online right. By energizing the people who voted for him in 2016 and 2020. By giving his voters more people who looked, and sounded, and thought like them. By portraying Democratic voters as a bunch of terrorists hellbent on destroying the country.
These are two very different theories of the election. Trump is running to get to 47 percent. Harris is running to get to 52 percent.
But there’s something deeper going on here.
The reason Trump is aiming for 47 percent is because the Electoral College makes minority rule possible for the rural party. Which incentivizes the rural party to be insular and to focus on energizing—not expanding—its coalition.
By disadvantaging the urban party, the Electoral College incentivizes it to broaden its coalition. Which means that the Democratic party of this moment must be constantly seeking to expand its reach and bring in new constituencies if it is to have a chance at holding executive power.
In other words: The Electoral College distorts the character of our parties, nudging one of them to be a majority-seeking organism and the other to be a base-pleasing organism. The character of our two parties today flows from the system architecture used to allocate power.
This is a high, abstract concept. But it explains—perfectly—what we have seen at the two conventions.
2. Walzpilled
Fine. He was great.
Josh Shapiro gave a very good speech last night. Then Tim Walz came out and took the house down. Absolutely comfortable in his own skin. Perfectly suited to the moment. The best-possible counterweight for Kamala Harris and a strategic nightmare for Trump.
I. Was. Wrong.
Walz was the best pick.
Two things:
(1) The fact that Harris was able to see that Walz was the best pick is encouraging. It’s a data point showing good judgment and sound political instincts. That’s a nice-to-have.
(2) Being right is kind of my thing, but I’m happy to understand when I’m wrong. At The Bulwark we try—very hard—to never mortgage ourselves to our priors. And we try to hold that line whether we’re talking about politics or policy or anything else.
To the extent that we succeed in this, it’s because of the whole community. We try to live it. You guys are trying to live it, too. And because we’re all coming at this conversation from a place of good faith, we give each other the space to think deeply and be open to reevaluation.
Thank you for that, friends. It’s a gift we give each other.
If you aren’t part of The Bulwark community yet, I hope you’ll consider joining. These are your people. And the only way through is together.
This section of Walz’s speech knocked my socks off:
Look, I know guns. I’m a veteran. I’m a hunter. And I was a better shot than most Republicans in Congress, and I’ve got the trophies to prove it. But I’m also a dad. I believe in the Second Amendment, but I also believe our first responsibility is to keep our kids safe.
Just as a matter of raw politics, this is the optimal position. But it’s not enough to have the optimal position—you need the right messenger. And Walz is the perfect messenger here.
But what really Walzpilled me was his son, Gus. Watching Gus in the audience, calling out “That’s my dad!”
Hit me direct in the solar plexus.
I realize there’s nothing sophisticated or intellectual about that. It doesn’t make any kind of sense that I could easily explain. But I’m just being real with you.
Also: Yesterday I told you to keep an eye out for the TV ratings. Democrats had 2 million more viewers than Republicans for the first day of their convention.
For Day 2 the Democratic advantage jumped to 6 million: 14 million for the RNC vs. 20 million for the DNC.
Stay tuned tomorrow for the Day 3 and Day 4 numbers. When Kamala beats Trump in the ratings, he’s going to lose his mind.
One last thing: Wes Moore is going to be president some day. That guy? He has the goods.
3. Prep Football
A fascinating story about the football program at St. Joe’s Prep in Philly, which has achieved a level of dominance in high school football that shouldn’t be possible:
Since the Pennsylvania Interscholastic Athletic Association (PIAA) went from four enrollment-based classifications to six in 2016, the Prep has won six state championships in Class 6A (the largest division), including last year’s, and was runner-up the other two times. The school also won Class 4A titles in 2013 and ’14. The Prep has dominated the Philadelphia Catholic League, the 104-year-old athletic confederation of 16 city and suburban Catholic high schools, losing just one PCL game in the past 10 seasons.
In April, the Arizona Cardinals selected former Prep wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth overall pick in the NFL Draft, while the Eagles selected Prep alum Jeremiah Trotter Jr., a linebacker, in the fifth round. They join former Prep standouts Jon Runyan Jr. (New York Giants), D’Andre Swift (Chicago Bears), and Olamide Zaccheaus (Washington Commanders) in the league. Three of those players (Runyan, Harrison and Trotter) are sons of former NFL Pro Bowlers. Last year, only eight high schools in the nation had five or more players on NFL rosters. And the college ranks at all levels are populated with Prep grads; head coach Tim Roken reports that 22 of 29 graduating seniors from last year’s state title team will play college ball. . . .
“The biggest thing is how they challenge you, academically and athletically,” Trotter Jr. says. “You’ve got to be able to study your playbook. They’re not one of those teams that run a simple defense. … They really teach you how to prepare and act like a professional athlete and a college athlete.”
The Prep does it, somehow, without a practice field or stadium. The program holds its preseason camp on a field at 11th and Cecil B. Moore and in-season workouts at Temple’s complex. In 2023, the Prep played “home” games at Franklin Field, Conwell-Egan Catholic and Norristown Area High School.
The Prep more than compensates for the nomadic existence. The weight room helps. So does the wide geographic distribution of the student body. The school’s website boasts 172 zip codes and 220 feeder schools represented among the 2023-’24 enrollment of 937 boys. . . .
Just how good is the Prep? In 2021, a 14-0 Garnet Valley team averaging 48.9 points per game faced them in the state semifinals. Garnet Valley athletic director Seth Brunner, who has been a high school football coach and administrator for 23 years, thought his Jaguars were the best high school team he had seen in person. Brunner watched the Prep warm up and “knew our season was over.” The Prep won, 49-13.
I can’t believe that people pay Andrew Clark for his political acumen. It’s wild.
I caught the Walz speech on Youtube once I got to work this morning. I just couldn't stay up late enough to watch it live (toddlers tire a person out). Anyways, when I saw Tim and his son, I had to fight back tears. That's raw, authentic, father & son love and it just hit me as a human being.
And here's the thing: what we saw between Tim and his son is something the Trumps- or his campaign- are NEVER going to be able to replicate. They don't have the humanity for it.
JVL! I’m so happy to see you say that you were wrong about Tim Walz!! My husband is a very conservative never trumper from West Virginia. He learned about Tim Walz early on and was immediately Walzpilled. Last night after his speech, my husband is even more so. (I was early on too and now cannot love him more) The fact that Kamala picked him as her running mate solidifies, in my mind, that she knows what’s she is doing. Let’s win this!!