Dems: We’ve Finally Processed 2016
Plus: Florida Democrats are crawling their way back.
Democrats have many reasons to be wary that another electoral letdown and devastating Donald Trump victory are lurking around the corner. After all, the presidential race is exceptionally close, if the polls are to be believed.1 But the massive influx of donors and levels of grassroots enthusiasm has a lot of Democrats cautiously optimistic that they can overcome the hurdles that tripped up Hillary Clinton’s candidacy.
“Ever since Donald Trump rode down that ridiculous escalator, we as a nation have felt trapped,” said Maryland Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks during her primetime speech. “Every national decision has been made in reaction to this one man and his extremist MAGA movement, we are still frozen by the fear that Donald Trump might once again come to power.”
That quote got me wondering: Is the convention suffering 2016 PTSD? Are Democrats worried that the country might once again choose Trump over the potential first woman president? Is there fear that voters still aren’t ready for a female commander in chief?
Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.), one of the first Democrats to call for Joe Biden’s ouster, told me he’s hoping for more of a 2008 scenario than a 2016 one:
Well this reminds me more of ‘08 and I was with President Obama the whole time then. And you can almost quantify it—you don't raise $200 million in a week, you don’t have 58,000 volunteers in a day—that's sort of how you quantify that level of energy. It's hard to measure otherwise, but you sense it.
So, you know, 2016 was dealing with a great unknown. Every candidate is different. We've seen the Harris Walz campaign be very different. I'm optimistic.
Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) told The Bulwark that “I think what you have from 2016 is lessons learned. We got to run through the tape.”
“Sexism preceded our country,” Schneider added. “It will be there forever. That’s not gonna change.”
Nathaniel Savali, an American Samoa delegate, said, “I don't feel that the country was ready to accept everything that surrounded Hillary’s candidacy,” adding, “There were a lot of things that were going on—a lot of propaganda—a lot of things. The meddling of Russia into the campaigns. But this time around, I think we’re ready.”
Expressing the greatest confidence was Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), who said, “I’m not worried at all.”
“We saw eight years ago that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote and the country has had eight more years to recognize that women are filling every capacity in America except one—that’s president of the United States,” Merkley added. “They see it’s the secretary of commerce, the secretary of the interior, governors in state after state after state that women are absolutely equal or maybe even better than men in leading our communities and our states and our nation forward.”
Even Nancy Pelosi weighed in, telling Politico that Clinton “didn’t win the election but she won the campaign. She showed women you can get out there and do this and all that. . . . She blazed a trail. So yes, I think it’s easier.”
If Democrats have any persisting fears about the 2024 election, they primarily relate to Trump trying to challenge the results—and doing so in a way that seeds incredible discord. To the extent they have lingering worries about a ticket characterized by so many “firsts,” they’re hoping to jiu-jitsu them into energy and momentum.
Sam Stein contributed reporting from Chicago.
An emotionally drained swamp
As happy as Democrats were this week, at least one group seemed pretty exhausted: the Florida delegation.
The Florida Democratic Party has suffered a rough couple of election cycles, with 2022 being particularly brutal. Both Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis absolutely walloped their Democratic opponents, winning their races by 16 and 19 points, respectively.
When the opposition party is putting up Barry Bonds numbers in statewide races, it can be incredibly discouraging. Walking the convention floor, I got the impression that the Democratic National Committee is well aware of how far out of reach Florida has become. Perhaps that’s why their seats for the week’s festivities were in the very back of the arena, just slightly behind the large press riser for the television cameras.2
Their delegates, while keenly aware of their recent misfortune, were obsessed with organizing, seeing it as the only way out of a very large hole. According to Manatee County Democratic Party Chairman Chris Wetherington:
We saw up and down the ballot yesterday, and the primary election, Florida’s not as far out of reach as what the numbers may look like. We know that the Republicans are touting their million-voter advantage. We know that’s not accurate, because of inactive voters, and then removing voters from the roles we’ll see in November. We believe we are able to contest all of our races up and down the ballot, something that we haven’t done in a very long time. Republicans can’t even tout that. They love races to be uncompetitive.
A problem that is keeping at least one Florida Democrat up at night is the party’s weak bench of political talent. Delegate Kenton Hills was skeptical that the chance for a party rebound was even remotely within reach.
Me, personally, being a delegate of Florida, I think we’re still behind, like, literally, we don’t have that good of a candidate to actually go against [someone like] Rubio, at least not yet. Nobody is coming out, you know, out in the big picture, to take that spot. Now, Rick Scott, that’s different. You know, from county levels up, no problem. But when it gets to the congressional races and higher, I don’t see a lot of people.
One glimmer of hope for Democrats seems to be that incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Scott has the political appeal of a boa constrictor.3 Democrats found hope in their easy nomination on Tuesday of former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who bested her nearest challenger, former NASA advisory board member Stanley Campbell, by nearly 40 points.
Scott is polling about five to eight points ahead of Mucarsel-Powell, depending on which polls you look at. While that seems like a difficult gap to close—and to be blunt, it likely is—it’s considerably closer than the Senate race just two years ago when Rubio waltzed to reelection by double digits. Mucarsel-Powell, unlike other frontline Senate candidates, isn’t on the speaking list for the convention, which suggests that the party continues to view the Florida race as an uphill climb. However, she wasn’t technically the nominee until winning the primary this week.
Despite protestations from disappointed voters and politicos, most credible polls have been very accurate in recent elections.
The most important states got the best seats. Battlegrounds Michigan and Pennsylvania were close enough to launch a paper airplane at John Legend. California and Minnesota, the home states of the nominees, were given prime real estate as well. Texas, it should be noted, had a slightly better location than Florida.
Then again, it is Florida. . .
I just want to have a shout out on how good of a job Joe is doing. He offers excellent scoop and insights on all things politics. He is more of an old school newspaper reporter than a TV pundit. I was quite annoyed by all the negative comments on the live chat about his energy level.
Send Gollum back to Mount Doom.. Come on, Florida!