There might be a counter-narrative to the idea that departures from the blue states will mean more power for the republicans in the red states. It's possible that those emigres will turn some of the red states more purple, isn't it?
There might be a counter-narrative to the idea that departures from the blue states will mean more power for the republicans in the red states. It's possible that those emigres will turn some of the red states more purple, isn't it?
This is a good point. The libertarian attempt to move in and take over New Hampshire, and the influx of Californians to Colorado seem to have shifted those statesтАЩ voting patterns. At the same time, I lived in Austin for about 4 years. Even though Austin is a little blue gem in big red Texas, my politics permanently shifted a little to the right. I hope you are right. I think more purple makes things much more interesting.
Doubtful. People tend to culturally/politically adapt to where they are going rather than making the places they are going to more like where they came from on a cultural/political level (politics is downstream of culture).
Edit: I meant to make this a separate comment and not a reply!
This kind of doom and gloom prognostication is based on the very wrong premise that state election trends determine voter behavior and not the other way around. If the south is gaining more residents from blue states, that hardly bodes well for Republicans. It could just as easily mean these тАЬredтАЭ states gain more electoral power, while most likely becoming less conservative. People do not magically turn into Republicans the moment they cross the Texas border.
Treating certain states as being hopelessly beyond reach is and always has been a terrible strategy. Prior to 2016, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania voted blue in every election I was eligible to vote in. They werenтАЩt as liberal as New York or California, but they also werenтАЩt hot swing states. They changed course because Trump did not treat it as a foregone conclusion that they wouldnтАЩt vote for him. While Trump may be an imbecile and a malignant narcissist, this is one example of something he was smart and strategic about, and you would think democrats would have learned something from it. None of these states even experienced any demographic changes; Trump simply showed up and talked directly to the people who democrats took for granted. WeтАЩve seen what happens when black voters are energized in the south. It gave us 2 democrats in the senate in Georgia and a win for Biden, thanks to Stacey Abrams. It even delivered us a victory in ALABAMA. I was hopeful that once Stacey showed us the way, this same strategy would be replicated nationwide. ItтАЩs disappointing to see that it appears to be a one time event.
Even as far back as 2005, Howard Dean had the right idea about the 50 state strategy. For the life of me, I canтАЩt understand why that never took off. I canтАЩt blame the party leads in the south for their frustration about the national party ignoring them. Sometimes it really does feel as though democrats are determined to lose.
A lot of it had to do with Musk illegal vote tampering. We see it clearly in the WI judicial race. Trump even admitted that Musk spent weeks in PA and "he's very good with computers" wink, wink.
This is exactly what I was wondering. If people are leaving liberal states, doesnтАЩt it stand to reason that a decent number of new residents will not even be conservative? Virginia was red in the not too distant past, and now itтАЩs not even a swing state anymore. It used to be inconceivable that Georgia would be considered a swing state.
Meanwhile I canтАЩt think of a single blue state that is showing a trend towards becoming more conservative.
What? 20 years ago, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan were solid blue, especially in presidential elections. Now, they are all no better than toss-up states. Maine is trending redder (though it's still blue in presidential elections). NH just elected another GOP governor. Minnesota is not as blue as it used to be, when it was the only state in the union to vote for Walter Mondale in 1984.
Glenn Youngkin won Virginia, and Trump/Musk may just deport a bunch of DC federal jobs to red states, which would further dilute the blueness of VA. Nevada is now a swing state, one that until 2024, hadn't gone GOP since 2000. And, Ohio, which used to be the ultimate swing state bellwether, is now solid red. Florida, which helped elect Obama and Clinton, is now as red as it ever was.
By contrast only Georgia, AZ, and NC have been trending bluer. Texas is bluer than it was 20 years ago, but it's still probably decades from going blue in a presidential election. The truth is that Donald Trump gained ground in every state except one in 2024, and with every demographic group, except maybe black females.
How ironic? After two decades of Democrats telling us "demographics is destiny!", it turns out they were right,...in reverse.
The margins in many of the Blue or Purple states (I.e. Virginia) were closer this cycle. Whether that proves to be a continuing trend or a peak on the bell curve no one knows yet, but thatтАЩs one thing Democrats must reverse. ItтАЩs probably more useful to think of it as shifts in demographics than shifts in individual states. If you can improve your standing with Latinos, Black men, Asians etc. then the party can compete in the south and elsewhere.
The way to get Black and Latino males to vote is to not have any women on the ticket. Women, regardless of race, however will usually vote for the best candidate.
True. Young black men, like their white and latino counterparts, absolutely hate "Woke". They have had enough of their masculinity being challenged as "toxic", and they are perfectly fine with being "centered" in their own universe. They may not ever see any of that fine white privilege, but they sure do value their male privilege, and they aren't eager to give any of that up.
Well тАж it depends on what the definition of тАЬconservativeтАЭ is. Here in CA, all the action is within the Democratic Party. Many Dem voters and politicians are turning away from the excessive focus on wedge cultural issues, and towards bread-and-butter issues such as housing, job creation, policing and the like. The YIMBY and тАЬabundanceтАЭ movements are evidence of this change. So, thereтАЩs a significant movement rightward towards the center. And thatтАЩs a good thing in my view.
I live in the OC. Mike Levin won this district and he is really popular. Very active when it comes to our issues. Right now he is concentrating on preventing Trump from destroying our country. He like most Democrats who I'm familiar with don't talk about "wedge" issues (which I guess is drag Queen's story hour, which I've never seen in OC schools or Riverside County where my son teaches.)
Another factor, with rising temperatures and increasing catastrophic weather events, ya know the thing the GOP denies, climate change, it will be interesting to see if 40 percent of the country will live in the South.
Absolutely my thought. Who can afford to own an uninsurable home? Where is the Trump administrationтАЩs response to the 39 deaths from the latest round of tornadoes and weather chaos and who will rescue the future victims of hurricanes once Trumpers are done with gutting our social safety network? The South holds fewer and fewer charms and heat and lack of water will break the Southwest.
And the paucity of building regulations in the South means natural disasters are more disastrous. The flooding in Houston several years back was due to allowing building construction in flood zones, and the failure to preserve wetlands that absorb excess water. Same with the severe hit Asheville NC took from Hurricane Helene; many residences were too close to creeks, or on unstable slopes.
There might be a counter-narrative to the idea that departures from the blue states will mean more power for the republicans in the red states. It's possible that those emigres will turn some of the red states more purple, isn't it?
This is a good point. The libertarian attempt to move in and take over New Hampshire, and the influx of Californians to Colorado seem to have shifted those statesтАЩ voting patterns. At the same time, I lived in Austin for about 4 years. Even though Austin is a little blue gem in big red Texas, my politics permanently shifted a little to the right. I hope you are right. I think more purple makes things much more interesting.
Doubtful. People tend to culturally/politically adapt to where they are going rather than making the places they are going to more like where they came from on a cultural/political level (politics is downstream of culture).
Yes generally the more educated people the less Republican
Edit: I meant to make this a separate comment and not a reply!
This kind of doom and gloom prognostication is based on the very wrong premise that state election trends determine voter behavior and not the other way around. If the south is gaining more residents from blue states, that hardly bodes well for Republicans. It could just as easily mean these тАЬredтАЭ states gain more electoral power, while most likely becoming less conservative. People do not magically turn into Republicans the moment they cross the Texas border.
Treating certain states as being hopelessly beyond reach is and always has been a terrible strategy. Prior to 2016, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania voted blue in every election I was eligible to vote in. They werenтАЩt as liberal as New York or California, but they also werenтАЩt hot swing states. They changed course because Trump did not treat it as a foregone conclusion that they wouldnтАЩt vote for him. While Trump may be an imbecile and a malignant narcissist, this is one example of something he was smart and strategic about, and you would think democrats would have learned something from it. None of these states even experienced any demographic changes; Trump simply showed up and talked directly to the people who democrats took for granted. WeтАЩve seen what happens when black voters are energized in the south. It gave us 2 democrats in the senate in Georgia and a win for Biden, thanks to Stacey Abrams. It even delivered us a victory in ALABAMA. I was hopeful that once Stacey showed us the way, this same strategy would be replicated nationwide. ItтАЩs disappointing to see that it appears to be a one time event.
Even as far back as 2005, Howard Dean had the right idea about the 50 state strategy. For the life of me, I canтАЩt understand why that never took off. I canтАЩt blame the party leads in the south for their frustration about the national party ignoring them. Sometimes it really does feel as though democrats are determined to lose.
A lot of it had to do with Musk illegal vote tampering. We see it clearly in the WI judicial race. Trump even admitted that Musk spent weeks in PA and "he's very good with computers" wink, wink.
He spent lots of money here like he did in WI.
This is exactly what I was wondering. If people are leaving liberal states, doesnтАЩt it stand to reason that a decent number of new residents will not even be conservative? Virginia was red in the not too distant past, and now itтАЩs not even a swing state anymore. It used to be inconceivable that Georgia would be considered a swing state.
Meanwhile I canтАЩt think of a single blue state that is showing a trend towards becoming more conservative.
What? 20 years ago, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan were solid blue, especially in presidential elections. Now, they are all no better than toss-up states. Maine is trending redder (though it's still blue in presidential elections). NH just elected another GOP governor. Minnesota is not as blue as it used to be, when it was the only state in the union to vote for Walter Mondale in 1984.
Glenn Youngkin won Virginia, and Trump/Musk may just deport a bunch of DC federal jobs to red states, which would further dilute the blueness of VA. Nevada is now a swing state, one that until 2024, hadn't gone GOP since 2000. And, Ohio, which used to be the ultimate swing state bellwether, is now solid red. Florida, which helped elect Obama and Clinton, is now as red as it ever was.
By contrast only Georgia, AZ, and NC have been trending bluer. Texas is bluer than it was 20 years ago, but it's still probably decades from going blue in a presidential election. The truth is that Donald Trump gained ground in every state except one in 2024, and with every demographic group, except maybe black females.
How ironic? After two decades of Democrats telling us "demographics is destiny!", it turns out they were right,...in reverse.
The margins in many of the Blue or Purple states (I.e. Virginia) were closer this cycle. Whether that proves to be a continuing trend or a peak on the bell curve no one knows yet, but thatтАЩs one thing Democrats must reverse. ItтАЩs probably more useful to think of it as shifts in demographics than shifts in individual states. If you can improve your standing with Latinos, Black men, Asians etc. then the party can compete in the south and elsewhere.
The way to get Black and Latino males to vote is to not have any women on the ticket. Women, regardless of race, however will usually vote for the best candidate.
True. Young black men, like their white and latino counterparts, absolutely hate "Woke". They have had enough of their masculinity being challenged as "toxic", and they are perfectly fine with being "centered" in their own universe. They may not ever see any of that fine white privilege, but they sure do value their male privilege, and they aren't eager to give any of that up.
Sadly, I think this is true. Men of all races and ethnicities seem to be united in their contempt for progressive women in power.
Yes it's sad.
Well тАж it depends on what the definition of тАЬconservativeтАЭ is. Here in CA, all the action is within the Democratic Party. Many Dem voters and politicians are turning away from the excessive focus on wedge cultural issues, and towards bread-and-butter issues such as housing, job creation, policing and the like. The YIMBY and тАЬabundanceтАЭ movements are evidence of this change. So, thereтАЩs a significant movement rightward towards the center. And thatтАЩs a good thing in my view.
I live in the OC. Mike Levin won this district and he is really popular. Very active when it comes to our issues. Right now he is concentrating on preventing Trump from destroying our country. He like most Democrats who I'm familiar with don't talk about "wedge" issues (which I guess is drag Queen's story hour, which I've never seen in OC schools or Riverside County where my son teaches.)
Another factor, with rising temperatures and increasing catastrophic weather events, ya know the thing the GOP denies, climate change, it will be interesting to see if 40 percent of the country will live in the South.
Absolutely my thought. Who can afford to own an uninsurable home? Where is the Trump administrationтАЩs response to the 39 deaths from the latest round of tornadoes and weather chaos and who will rescue the future victims of hurricanes once Trumpers are done with gutting our social safety network? The South holds fewer and fewer charms and heat and lack of water will break the Southwest.
And the paucity of building regulations in the South means natural disasters are more disastrous. The flooding in Houston several years back was due to allowing building construction in flood zones, and the failure to preserve wetlands that absorb excess water. Same with the severe hit Asheville NC took from Hurricane Helene; many residences were too close to creeks, or on unstable slopes.
Or drown in the south