End of Days
Snapshots from a decadent democratic republic.
Tonight is TNB: Join Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell, Mona Charen, and special guest Dave Weigel. They’re going to talk about the election, obviously.
Thursday, 8pm Eastern, only for Bulwark+
1. Mixed Messages
We’ve talked about this subject before, but I want to hit it again.
Chris Sununu is running for reelection as New Hampshire’s governor. According to him, life in New Hampshire is great and the state’s economy is thriving.
Things sound pretty great in New Hampshire! The economy is booming, there’s a budget surplus, businesses are opening. The Granite State is the envy of America.
Also: New Hampshire has three Democrats up for reelection next week and voters must replace them with Republicans because people in New Hampshire are freezing and starving about to be homeless. American carnage!
Here are the arguments of the Republicans running for Senate and NH’s two House seats:
So which is it?
Is New Hampshire the envy of America, with businesses booming and the economy humming? Or are the people of New Hampshire huddled in the cold, foraging for berries because they can’t afford heat, food, or even an apartment?
The Republican party says: Both!
It will be revealing to see how New Hampshire voters respond to these schizophrenic messages.1
2. Performative Governance
Remember when Ron DeSantis sent his special voter police to round up people who’d committed vote fraud in 2020?2
As was suspected at the time, those arrests aren’t holding up very well:
In August, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) held a "campaign-style event" and announced that 20 people had been arrested "for breaking Florida’s elections laws." In a press release, DeSantis' office set aside the presumption of innocence, branding the group "election criminals."
The arrests were the result of charges filed by the Office of Election Crimes and Security, a new office created by DeSantis. The announcement successfully generated headlines that would appeal to voters looking for validation of Trump's lies about the 2020 election . . .
All of those charged were previously stripped of their right to vote after being convicted of murder or a felony sexual offense but voted in the 2020 election. . . .
How were 20 ineligible people permitted to vote? We now know it was because the State of Florida failed to do its job.
A prospective voter fills out a voter registration form and submits it to their local election supervisor. The local official then transmits the application to the Florida Department of State, which is responsible for cross-checking the application against a criminal database to determine whether the voter is eligible. In all 20 cases, the Florida Department of State did not flag the voter as ineligible. Therefore, local supervisors issued voter ID cards. So DeSantis is touting the arrests of people who believed they were eligible to vote because of the DeSantis administration's failures.
Spoiler: These arrests aren’t going to hold up in court. But that’s par for DeSantis, whose governing style is heavily tilted in favor of passing performative, unconstitutional legislation that fails legals tests.
Don’t worry: He’s going to get reelected, too, because Joe Biden’s the economy in Florida is booming and people down there are satisfied with their quality of life, but also outraged at how terrible everything is.
3. Vance 2028. Probably.
Ohioans are going to send J.D. Vance to the Senate even though they kind of hate him.
A fact that is potentially related to the palpable absence of Vance Fever: The places he has lived as an adult are occupied by the people he has made his new political career out of describing as weirdo scumbags. East Walnut Hills, the neighborhood where his family lives in Cincinnati, is dotted with Victorian houses that have been renovated in pastel colors and are often adorned with Pride flags; the coffee shop I stopped at there sold nut-free granola out of consideration for allergies and advertised that its organic ingredients are delivered in electric vehicles. . . .
Two hours away, across the street from his old apartment in Columbus, there was a house decorated with a modern liberal trifecta—the flag of Ukraine, a rainbow flag, and a Black Lives Matter poster. (The homes were in German Village, a classically “walkable” neighborhood that is Ohio’s ground zero for restaurants that serve $14 cocktails and, like, molasses-glazed Brussels sprouts.) Near the coworking space where his company had been registered, over the bar, there is a trans-inclusive club called Bloom that advertises drag performances. (Vance asserted on a February podcast with Steve Bannon that the U.S. military is allied with Ukraine because Vladimir Putin doesn’t support transgender rights.) On the wrought-iron fence outside Vance’s impressive house and lawn, there is a sign that says, “Drive like your kids live here.”
I have a theory about nat-con elites like Vance: They are motivated primarily by dislike of their neighbors and peers. They find the social and political accoutrements of upperclass life insipid. And so they have reacted by throwing in with “The People,” even though they don’t actually know (or like) The People. And would never, in a million years, allow their kids to marry one of these untermenschen.
By “interesting,” I mean “horrifying.”
And by “people” I mean, “not the kind of nice white people who commit voting fraud at the Villages.”
Regarding the Vance piece, I think one of the most clarifying (and to a certain extent surprising) thing about the rise of MAGA (both the politicians and the voters), is just how much they loathe me (and my wife, and our friends, and our neighbors, etc.). I mean, really loathe us. I am reminded of Tim Miller relating the story of his GOP consultant friend, an otherwise reasonable person, getting just incensed about Prius', paper straws, and "coexist" stickers. And I continue to be kind of baffled. I mean, I grew up in SE WI in Paul Ryan country, and have lived in a progressive city for a long time. I get how insufferable some folks can be sometimes. A lot of times. My progressive friends drive me bananas too sometimes. But isn't an eye-roll enough? Why does it drive the Vance's of the world to such rage filled distraction? I like a wellmade, locally-sourced, grass-fed ribeye as much as the next guy, AND a tailgate brat and beer. How do either of those things negatively or positively impact Vance and the contituency he's championing (supposedly)? I have never been able to identify the answer to that. Why does Vance or generic MAGA guy/gal care what I like or dislike? Or that someone else (also) has a kind of insipid, tenuously supported social position? Why do they see it as such a personal affront? Sometimes I think it's at least partially because a lot of MAGA America has seen their kids and neices and nephews and cousins and grandkids go off to college, then come back to tell them how wrong they were (at least according to the college family member). And they're just done with it. Which I actually kind of understand. What I don't understand is, again, why it became untenable to just roll their eyes and ignore their progressive family members, and it had to become "burn the whole goddamned place down."
The GOP has been perfectly okay with sending out self-contradicting messaging for quite some time now. It's not a new playbook for them. The reason they do it is simple: it works. If you can make people feel in-group love and out-group fear simultaneously, you've got them at your fingertips my dude. That's just how tribalism works. Anything that is bad blame on the opposition and make it sound as terrifying and existential as possible, anything that is good claim credit for personally.
Think of it in the way you think about man's relationship with supposed higher beings from various holy books. Anything good that happens in your life is a "blessing from god" while whenever something bad happens, it's either "the devil" or "god working in mysterious ways." It's a self-reinforcing belief system for attribution. Bad things that happen are either from the devil, or they are from god--but that's okay because it's all part of his bigger plan for good things. Good things that happen can only come from god. It's now the same dynamic with political parties for the Chrisitian nationalists that fill MAGA ranks at Trump rallies.
Conservatives have internalized Christian nationalism and the religious way of viewing good/evil in the world to such a degree that it is now expressed through their politics emotionally by default. Anytime their side loses an election it must have been a trick by the devil (democrats), and anytime their side wins an election it was part of god's plan all along. Now "Real Americans" can "strap on the armor of god" and join Mike Flynn in his fight against secular government and radical liberals who are destroying the country in the name of Satan.