Top Democrats say they don't see a way for Biden to win, and some are resigning themselves to being the resistance against Trump, despite the threat he poses to our democracy. Batten down the hatches—this interview is a tough listen. Ezra Klein joins Tim Miller.
show notes
Ezra's book recommendation, "Health and Safety: A Breakdown"
Throwing out this idea that is definitely out there. Biden steps back from the presidency and Kamala becomes president who then picks Biden has her Veep. I know it’s hard to take a step backwards but it will allow him to transition better and may help him feel like he still has a role. He can back her up on foreign policy!
Answer me this, if Joe Biden on the ticket is DJT’s best hope to win, then why aren’t we seeing a torrent of media pleading his case to stay in? In fact, we are seeing the exact opposite. Why? Because this isn’t normal politics. This is a Putin / Xi / Oliwannabe attack against the United States of America where their tool is information warfare, this includes spiking polling results. Putin / Xi and the Oliwannabes know that their best chance of installing DJT is Biden stepping aside and/or a fractured Democratic Party.
Read what you want into The Bulwark’s behavior which is fully aligned with what Putin / Xi and the Oliwannabes would like to see.
I am coming around to the view that Biden should not step down after all. Biden has already divided the Democratic Party and donors, alienated the swing voters (like myself), and ruined Kamala Harris' chances of winning if she is the nominee. At this point, it is better for Biden to run and lose. At least, the blame will be squarely on him when he loses and brings down other Democratic candidates. Thanks, Biden. SMH.
Excellent (though worrisome) episode. Tim Miller is doing a great job with the podcast.
The book Klein recommended is actually entitled"Health and Safety" not "Health and Wellness". Come on Ezra, you're losing it!
Tim, just a side-comment on the brief "AI Ezra" interchange at the beginning. Ezra's nod to us being "reinforcement learning mechanisms" is one that many on the liberal/progressive side share with the "tech bros". The question of a possible soul in an AI entity is met with a shrug. The whole topic is orthogonal to anything of "real" importance, in their opinion, as they accept the possibility of Humanity 2.0. We are coming to a head very soon on what it means to be a conscious human. (Spoken as a retired 50-year Silicon Valley guy.)
I admit that I did not want to hear any of this, but as painful as it was, I’m glad I listened. I am enraged at these “high-ranking” Dems who somehow believe they won’t be some of the first to face a firing squad. They need to wake the f’ up.
Could this explain (as opposed to incompetence, or maybe a combo) the elected democrats in DC seeming uniniterest to call out Republicans on their BS? Dick Durbin, I'm looking @ you. I don't know about anyone else but the complete and utter failure of Democrats to hold hearings regarding a number of shady shit going on in the republican sphere such as, oh I don't know, the fucking Supreme Court & everything that entails, Project 2025 & numerous others is baffling & concerning. But the one that really gets my conspiracy juices flowing is the whole Jared Kushner, MBS & $2 trillion "corruption in plain sight" deal that Democrats have been pretty much silent on. Do you think for ½ a second if the reverse had happened Republicans would have responded in kind. Hell to the fuck no! They even tried to engineer the basic equivalent of this with the whole Biden crime family s*** show that James Comer orchestrated. WTF is going on here????? If anyone with any reasonable answers please comment bc I'm seriously beginning to sink into my dark space. 🫨🤯😮💨😱
How can we get Biden to watch the damn debate? I really think he has no idea how bad his performance was. He needs to experience what millions of us did. I think he would be as horrified as we are.
Ezra is wrong about polling! WRONG. There is this iconoclastic anti anti-polling thing every time. It's WRONG.
Whitmer had +4.7% polling, won by 11
Shapiro had +8%, won by 15
Fetterman had -0.5% polling, won by 5 %
Kelly had +1.5% polling, won by 5%
These are not 'margin of error' stats. These are 'Polling is DEAD' stats.
Beshear blew away polling average
Kari Lake was +2.4, lost by 0.7
Evers blew away polling average.
If you were incredibly generous you would say 'inside margin of error' but only if the error now is 4%.
There are Democrat legislatos who are ambivalent about another Trump Presidency? Shocking. That not ONE thinks Biden can win and they aren't willing to say so to him? Infuriating.
This conversation is a tonic. I have to say that subscribing to the Bulwark may have been the best decision I’ve made this year, perhaps in multiple years. This exchange between Tim and Ezra gives me hope. The emphasis on information is spot on. It’s now clear that we’ve been deceived, perhaps not maliciously, but very likely fatally. We need a course change NOW.
And from the transcript, regarding Biden’s contention that the polls are wrong and that it’s the elites who are against him:
Ezra “I'm told that Joe Biden is running well behind Democrats in house districts from people who do that kind of polling. So we are not finding an electorate that is unwilling to vote for Democrats, even though we know Democrats have been doing pretty well in 2018 and 2020 and 2022. We're finding an electorate that does not want to vote for Joe Biden.
And virtually every piece of data we have is consistent on that. Presidential approval ratings, head-to-head matchups, and the Democratic elites, which contrary to Joe Biden, the President of the United States, telling the co-hosts of Morning Joe and MSNBC that he's getting real tired of all these elites, president company accepted, the actual elites who run things in the Democratic Party have just been refusing to listen to the voters on this. The voters are saying they think Joe Biden is too old, they don't want him to run again.
The Democratic Party has kind of been like, sit down and shut up. And yeah, maybe as you say, all the errors in Democrats' direction this year, but there is no reason, there is no information we have currently that points in that direction. “
From The Bulwark Podcast: Ezra Klein: A Path to Defeat, Jul 10, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-bulwark-podcast/id1447684472?i=1000661819578
This material may be protected by copyright.
And this from the transcript:
Ezra:
“If I were hearing from top Democrats saying, listen, I think our best path to winning is still Joe Biden. I think that unfortunately Harris is a weaker candidate, and I think that an open convention process or a blitz primary would leave us in a worse place. And these are all bad options, but Joe Biden is the least bad option, fine.
I just want to say this because it is, I don't think you can understand what I'm saying. If I don't, that is not what I am hearing from anybody. Like, nobody says that.
Nobody says Joe Biden is the best chance of winning. Nobody even says they think Joe Biden can win. I have not had one top Democrat say that to me, nor has Joe Biden come to any of them with a plan for how to win, right?”
From The Bulwark Podcast: Ezra Klein: A Path to Defeat, Jul 10, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-bulwark-podcast/id1447684472?i=1000661819578
This material may be protected by copyright.
For those who did not listen to this podcast, this is from the transcript:
Ezra: “I think it is clear, like people are like weighing the set of things. Like it would be quite unpleasant for me personally to come out against the president as a elected official in a Democratic Party and weighing what will happen if Donald Trump wins and saying in a revealed preference way, I can live with Donald Trump winning. And I've had people say that to me off the record, to be fair.
I've had top Democrats say to me, basically something like, I don't know why all these Democrats who think Donald Trump is an existential threat to democracy are acting the way they are. But the reason I'm acting the way I am is because I don't think that.
Tim: Who the fuck is this? Out of your sources, Ezra. I'm about to be in leaking text mode over here myself.”
From The Bulwark Podcast: Ezra Klein: A Path to Defeat, Jul 10, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-bulwark-podcast/id1447684472?i=1000661819578
This material may be protected by copyright.
Re: Black support for VP Harris. In '08 black democrats had years of earned loyalty to the Clintons. Even when Obama was really on fire, they didn't swoon for him util he won IA. It was not identity politics is was electability.
Harris is not on fire now, but given a break, would not black Americans flock to her?
I support the Bulwark…as a democrat. I really enjoy Tim , Sarah , and JVL. I respect your opinions and even when I don’t agree I still respect your analysis.
(I also love Sarah’s laugh)
I love Sarah's laugh too. But she hasn't been laughing much lately.
Basically, Klein has reaffirmed my reason for having dropped party membership in 2008. Politicians are only interested in staying in office, and will do whatever it takes to avoid making a decision for the good of the country if it puts their own job at risk. When I saw that they were willing to let the financial system collapse and send us back to 1932 with 25 percent unemployment, I pulled the plug on party membership. I had been thinking of registering as a Democrat, but now I know that nothing has changed. No reason to be a member of any political party. They are all the same.
My take on Jared Golden’s statement: Golden has a MAGA opponent endorsed by Trump. The guy’s name is Austin Theriot, and in that district there are Theriot yard signs, but no Golden signs (yet). Golden is worried he can’t win unless he appears Trump friendly, or at least tolerant. Hence the statement.
This podcast was a gut punch but was necessary. Ignoring the reality of where Biden's campaign currently is can only bring disaster (i.e., the return of the Mad Orange King). Whether we like it or not, the debate debacle did real damage to Biden's candidacy. Of course all Never Trumpers (like me) will vote for Biden if he remains the candidate, but the election will be decided by maybe 100,000 low to no information voters in a few swing states. These voters are largely of the view that Biden is too old for the job. You can't convince them with the usual "Trump is bad, Trump is a criminal blah blah" arguments no matter how valid those arguments are. These voters are not Ivy League educated political addicts like Biden's aides, or high information voters like Bulwark listeners. Biden needs to reach them with simple messages, like: "I had a bad night, but I can do the job physically and mentally" the way he temporarily conveyed that message at the State of the Union address, AND THEN ACTUALLY DEMONSTRATING THAT THIS MESSAGE IS TRUE! Maybe it won't work, but without that I fear Biden is doomed, and so are we.
It is increasingly looking as though the flag proudly waving outside my home will have to be folded in November and put into storage.
It is also looking likely that a vacation in D.C. will be delayed. Last time my husband and I visited was during Obama's last term. We rented bikes and buzzed around and it was wonderful. We loved D.C. I refuse to go there if Trump is in the White House, with the MAGA weirdos crawling and slithering about.
Someone may have already pointed this out, but the Emily Witt book Ezra mentioned is called "Health and Safety: A Breakdown" (for anyone else who went looking for it;))
I was really annoyed with Ezra a few months ago when he was pretty much advocating for Biden to step down because of his age in the NY Times. I'm still not sure whether Biden should step down, although I am getting more and more worried that he cannot do what needs to be done for him to beat Trump (vigorous campaigning, etc.). But it's clear to me now that I misjudged Ezra, and like many, I was unaware or ignoring Biden's decline.
Trump will be an absolute nightmare in a second term.
He will openly take over DOJ and turn it into his private goon squad because the Roberts court said he has absolute immunity in any and all interactions with that agency.
Trump toads and stooges will be given leadership roles in all agencies and the professionals now working in government will be purged.
Lynn Cheney are others on the J6 committee will be investigated up the wazoo and prosecuted, with threat of jail time.
All J6 prisoners will be pardoned and released.
Trump will withdraw the U.S. from NATO, and Ukraine will fall to Putin. Then the Baltic states. There will be no prospects for justice and peace in the Middle East. Trump will pull broadcasting licenses from numerous radio and television stations.
He will of course dissolve all federal cases against himself, and will simply ignore any state convictions.
It will be insufferable to listen to him bloviate on tv on a daily basis, and many folks will just tune out the news altogether, preferring to go on a news blackout until this hideous Trump era ends.
It will be the worst 4 years ever of life in the U.S. and the world.
There will be no legal accountability for Trump or his morally bankrupt minions.
But hey, Joe Biden has occasional memory slippage and occasional difficulty in articulating his thoughts, so..,.
We have to cede the election to the vile and seditious Trump, and his motley collection of Reeks and Uriah Heeps?
Because multiple crimes and misdemeanors, including an attempted coup, are not enough for anyone to demand Trump stand down, but one bad debate night is enough for much of Democratdom to insist Biden withdraw?
Unless we all unite behind Biden, we are guaranteeing a Trumpocalypse, and it won’t be amusing.
You are 100% correct. Trump can sit in court farting waiting to be indicted and 6 senators and congress people including the speaker of the House is behind his supporting him. Biden has a bad night and the Republican echo chamber scares the weenie Democrats to demand Biden resign. Because you know there are lot of qualified Democrats sitting in the wings. NOT.
Could not agree with Ezra Klein more!!! Throw this thing wide open! How can doing so be riskier than where we are right now??
The “chaos” of an open convention…of an “emergency primary” …here I will borrow from the late John Lewis: I think this could be “good trouble.” Voters have been starved for new leadership and never wanted this rinse and repeat match up.
I also agree that the excitement of such chaos would be on our side, for a change. An October surprise pre-empted by an August one would totally steal the news cycle from Trump! I also believe it would offer up a reset for voters that would revive our political psyche and help to cure much of the national “Stockholm Syndrome” we seem to be living through.
I am beyond grateful for what Joe Biden has accomplished these past few years…but, gratitude will not save us from a Trump presidency.
In light of the few loud people saying they're gonna cancel their subscription, even though I'm going to take a break from political intake for a bit, I'll still give to the BW even when I'm not listening or reading. Honest journalism deserves to be supported to stick around & hopefully one day the Bulwark will break even monetarily.
The gun is loaded, finger on the trigger, and it’s pointed at America crossing fifth Avenue.
I haven’t listened yet. What’s to learn from it? That democrats are dumb with a capital D? Folks you’ve had nearly 10 years to get rid of Trump. But all you do is whine and hand wring. Since Biden has Supreme Court cover now, arrest Trump. Do something democrats. Why the fuck do I keep voting for you?? Do something for me. Get rid of this fucking Trump.
Exactly
What are they waiting for. Throw his ass in Guantanamo and fire Alito and Thomas. Those are his presidential duties to get rid of traitors to our country. Don't believe for a second that Trump won't do it when he's elected. People had a chance to get rid of Hitler and they didn't do it. Look at the suffering that resulted. Trump will get us out of NATO and join Putin in attacking eastern Europe
Shits really serious now.
As others have pointed out the SC anticipated the problem of also giving immunity to a Democratic President by including the language that cautions the definition of "official duties" is open to interpretation and will ultimately have to be defined by the court (and no one thinks they would rule in favor of a Dem president if Biden tried to take advantage to arrest trump) https://fb.watch/tfvH15n72n/
So what. They can drag it on for months then Biddn's president and he can remove the judges and put in new ones who will take away immunity for good.
You don’t know that. You cited an N=1. It still doesn’t change the fact that the Biden administration has been soft on Trump for 4 years. I think they’re afraid of republicans.
Which part out don't I know? That the language of the decision gives the judicial system full control over deciding what is an official duty in any future lawsuit? This has been explained by any number of people. Or that in the event Biden did something before he left that the supreme Court wouldn't slap his hand and deny him the same leeway that they're going to give Trump.
It would take months to get a decision. And he can choose to ignore them. Meanwhile Trump's in jail.
Which constitutional experts?
Awesome interview
I'm a lifelong Dem, have voted only Democratic for 50 years, and this is the first time in my life that I've been furious at a Democratic politician. (I'm a couple years too young to have been angry at LBJ in realtime.) After listening to the pod with Ezra I now have more Dems to be angry at.
My thinking is, if Biden stays in and loses to Trump, it will set back the Democratic party at least 10 years. This at a time when they have the opportunity to consolidate their recent wins and build an even stronger party.
Instead, they're willing to throw it all away? If you think some people are angry now, just wait and see if Biden loses, there will be anger that you can't even imagine right now. (No, I'm not talking about violence, just pure emotion and anger at every politician that let this happen.) People are disillusioned and turned off by politics now? Multiply that by 1,000. At my advanced age, I don't care if I never vote again, if the Dems lose what should have been an "easy" election. This is unlike anything I've seen in my lifetime.
Who can beat Trump? You do not understand that there's foreign intervention on websites, tic toc and other online sources to influence our elections. There is no one but Biden who can beat Trump.
I feel you. The first presidential election I voted in was in '76. I voted for Carter and I've voted Dem ever since. For me, it's all about beating Trump in November. I'll vote for Biden, Harris or any other Dem. These Dem politicians Ezra refers to who are willing to tolerate a Trump victory rather than push Biden to do better or get out nauseate me. If Biden can do better he needs to show that now!
He has. He's given several good speeches since. Has hosted the NATO summit and gave a good speech at the end. You won't hear that in the news. He is respected by foreign leaders, but he's never been a great speaker, like Obama or Clinton. He has been an excellent President. Probably one of the best.
Trump spouts nonsense all the time and Republicans praise him so the voters think he is great. Democrats stab a candidate in the back the second their candidate gets bad press.
Honestly... are you concerned about the next debate? Will you be going in with confidence that Biden is going to crush it? Biden had already lost a step back in 2020 and it gets worse every year. Not his fault that's just life. Prior to the debate I tune into Biden events fingers crossed thinking "Please don't F up". Half the time I couldn't watch out of anxiety. The Stephanopoulos interview wasn't great either and if there wasn't a problem he would be out front in the public eye giving interviews and this would have been squashed days ago.
We've sadly gone from "Dark Brandon" with glowing red laser eyes to "Please don't F up" in less than 6 months.
Do to the media bull shit. This is Hillary's emails all over.
I heard Trump speak yesterday about children being alone and then drifted into train schedules and mangled a several words and the press said not a word and his audience was fine with it.
Again, I disagree. The media coverage may be unfair, but that's just the way it is. Trump's stupidity and venality is already baked in, but he does not look weak. Biden looks feeble and out of touch. If Biden can't show in a meaningful way (i.e., real Q&A with reporters not scripted interviews) I fear he's going to lose.
Check out his speech he gave yesterday st the Nato Summit. It was fine. He is not thevgreatest speechmaker, but he didn't look weak or unsure of himself.
I do have one disagreement. I don't think Trump looks strong. He looks like spoiled man baby tyrant.
To us Trump looks that way. But to millions his stupid, Mad Orange King vitality and inane comments and nicknames and lies look like strength. It seems Biden probably kept himself in the game tonight, if just barely, with his press conference.
I didn't watch the press conference. I hope he can be judged by additional metrics and not just his public speaking. At least doesn't and say stupid things like Trump. The other say I heard Trump talking about children left alone and then started talking about trains. Seriously it made no sense. They said it was in front of a 1,000 people, but literally looked a few dozen people.
My sense is that the press conference was ok, not great (a few gaffes and mixed up names). Biden made it clear he intends to be the candidate. I suspect he will be absent a catastrophic health event or if the big donor $ starts drying up (NY Times is reporting some of that today). Swing state polling looking worse for Biden but hard to know if that's a lagging reaction to the debate debacle or something more permanent. We'll see.
I respectfully disagree. Giving speeches off a teleprompter or softball TV interviews or a radio interview (like in Philly) where he's given the questions in advance isn't improving his position against Trump. It's about way more than his not being good in public speaking at this point. Whether he is physically and mentally capable of campaigning successfully against Trump and then having a reasonable chance of beating Trump is the issue. The whataboutism about how the media treats Trump isn't landing with voters.
Well then fuck it. I'd love to hear the name of who you all think can replace him
Not sure why you seem to be getting angry when all I'm doing is stating what the facts are. In any event, my first choice is for Biden to start doing real things to show he's able to campaign effectively, answer questions and have a reasonable chance of beating Trump. But I'm increasingly pessimistic that he can do so. If not, I'm leaning towards Harris stepping up. She will take the fight to Trump, and if she loses at least we go down fighting.
Those elected Democrats not concerned about Donald Trump posing a threat have forgotten about January 6th haven't they, France has put our lackadaisical Democrat politicians to shame --they took decisive action in France just last week and beat back the very real threat from the Putin admiring far right.
Biden is staying in. Trump will win. Bulwarkers, activists, donors, etc. should focus on House races so that there will be some check on his power.
The whole "the voters have spoken" Trash argument..... Uhhh, wouldn't you agree that new information has been introduced into the fold? I will obviously vote Biden over Trump, but I also realize it will be in a losing effort. The tide has shifted and if democrats don't heed this warning with a feckless, incompetent Biden, the rage towards the Democratic party will be legendary. It's so easy to see how this all falls apart. Either Trumps a threat to democracy OR democratic officials are lying thru their teeth and they don't actually believe Trumps a threat to democracy. They think they will fund raise like crazy over the course of 4 more years of Trump, then run for president in 2028..... until trump invokes martial law and cancels the election.... Short sighted AF.
What Ezra says about Democratic office-holders not seeing Trump as an existential threat sounds like either or a combination of 1) Motivated reasoning. The same venal ambition as their Republican counterparts and 2) A complete illiteracy of democracy and the history of authoritarianism. We're screwed.
Hmmm, laid back Democrats. Not to be snarky, but weren't a lot of those guys running for their lives a few years ago? Or was that just Josh Hawley?
This is very, very important listening for those of you who have perceived the post-debate discussion as panic and overreaction. If you are in that category, give a listen and see if this impacts you.
Why are some of these democrats not more alarmed about a Trump victory? For the Squad it would make sense from a self interest perspective. Would any of them been elected without Trump? I don’t think so.
You guys are getting so much shit, and it’s been painful to watch my own party doing this to you. Many of us are so grateful to you during this time, but I think human nature is to be more motivated to post a negative review than a positive one. So I wanted to make sure to let you all know I just subscribed, because I can’t live through the next four months without you guys, and because seeing you really stand strong and stay committed to your principles in this time just means everything to me. So sure, some people are hating on you guys right now. The rest of us, I think, are more grateful to you than ever before. Thank you for telling the truth!!
Thank you Kristin, 100% agree!
Wow love this. Thanks for speaking on behalf of many of us!
Oh. My. God. So, apparently a large chunk of the ONLY party that is pro-democracy doesn't believe Trump is a threat. Even after the lunatics on the Supreme Court gave a president immunity for crimes (probably only if they are a Republican, I surmise). At this point I am beginning to wonder if I have stumbled into a parallel universe such is my astonished stupefaction at this idea. And sadly, because Ezra Klein is a most reliable source of such a report, I fear I must accept this as fact. Thanks for the update, Tim. But geez. The toughest listen since the debate, I think.
By the way, while I've got you, I just wanted to say (if I haven't prior to today) that while I miss Charlie's pod profoundly you are doing a smashingly splendid job. I am so so glad that you didn't attempt to 'do a Charlie'. You have made this pod your own and it is really working. I just wanted to reiterate that particularly as you guys suffer such misguided criticism let alone threats of cancellation (literal and figurative, I'm guessing). During these very tough days, permit me to take a small liberty and suggest you think of how much Toluse (sp?) will be proud of her dad when she understands what you do and have done on behalf of your country. Good job.
“I am beginning to wonder if I have stumbled into a parallel universe such is my astonished stupefaction at this idea.” -yes
Glad to know I'm not alone in that universe, Laura. Phew!
Go on an anti-Trump offensive? His awfulness and utter psychotic behaviour have been almost totally normalised by now…even the last week of his BS hasn’t moved the meter an inch.
In our effed up electoral college system, it unfortunately is going to come down to the swing states, and the voters in them that have been desensitised to Trump, and will still likely vote for them, especially when they see with their own eyes and ears the obvious decline of Joe. For many of them, it’s an emotional decision, not an analytical or moral one. Like it or not, these voters are going to decide, just like they did in 2016, or they’re going to sit it out.
Maybe give them something shiny and new, and very strategic, and just maybe they’ll figure what the hell, at least it’s not these two effin guys.
We’ve been deceived and gaslit by the Biden campaign, things should never have gotten to this point, but here we are. As Max Brooks once said, the Democrats are always finding new and creative ways to lose.
To summarise, it’s very unlikely pointing out all of Trump’s awfulness is going to make a difference to the crucial swing state voters.
Painful to listen to and thank you for putting this out there. We need to be strong and move to find the best ticket forward without Biden. Nothing against him and it is important we do what the French did, gather together against the authoritarian right and Trump crazy
Tim, that article that went up in the Atlantic today by Tim Alberta is scary. Can you get Tim for the podcasts? I want to hear from the 2 Tim’s .
Great episode thank you!
This has been such a confusing time. I assumed that everyone was acting in good faith....except....when Newsom came out in strong support of Biden immediately after the debate -- even traveling to swing states - I thought maybe he wants Biden to stay in b/c if Harris is the replacement, and wins, she will run for relection in 2028 and Newsom won't have a chance until 2032. But if Biden remains and loses, Newsom can run in 2028. But if democracy is really at stake, as Newsom has said it is, will we even HAVE an election in 2028? Either Newsom honestly thinks Biden can win, or Newsom thinks Biden will lose and that we will still have enough of a democracy left for Newsom to perhaps win in 2028. After this podcast, it sounds like the latter. Disappointing.
It's almost as if they want Biden to stay in and lose so they can spend the next four years making self-righteous "resistance" speeches against Trump and set themselves up for a 2028 run.
The book that Ezra Klein recommended to Tim is actually "Health and Safety: A Breakdown" by Emily Witt. (Ezra called it "Health and Wellness). But Tim can't take it to the beach because it won't be released until September 17th.
Thanks! I've been googling and amazoning and COULD NOT find it. BTW - it won't be released until Sept. 17, 2024. Summer will nearly be over before you can take it to the beach.
Maddening? Enraging! How dare they?! I’m with Tim, my blood pressure is blowing up the cuff. I’d like these people identified to their constituents. Kick some ass. Please.
Ugh.. Sigh... Breathe... Hopefully Biden will do the right thing for the country after the NATO summit. Fingers crossed. This was really informative and scary. When I wonder if I am out of mind I turn to the Bulwark. Now I learn that some Dems think Trump won't be so bad. Ugh, sigh, breathe....
After Trump wins, Biden and his advisors will be despised and hated by most democrats. And even as a defender of his record, it will be hard for me to think well of him—or of the Democratic Party. Within my progressive group of friends, the despair is palpable.
If he wins it will be because the Democrats whined and cried like little girls because their candidate had a bad night. They should grow up and act like Republicans who stood behind a farting Trump while he was convicted of 34 felonies. And stands by him today.
Acting like Republicans is good in terms of attack attack attack repeatedly repeatedly repeatedly with one voice and one message. But there are certain things that Dems cannot get away with. For example, there is no liberal talk radio that compares with the brainwashing cult-breeding effects of the right-wing hate machine; liberal voters aren't wired to respond to it. Dems also can't get away with demanding its members get totally behind whoever their dear leader is. Especially when the dear leader is underwater in the aggregate of national and vital state polls. Unlike Trumpists, we see when the emperor clothes are in tatters. Can't wish it away. Biden is toast.
I agree with what you say. But Biden is not toast. He gave a good speech at the NATO summit. If you can think of someone who can beat Trump, I'm all eager to hear it.
I don't think anybody in the comments or on the Bulwark staff disputes that Biden can give a good speech. But can he think on his feet in unscripted environments. Can he form a coherent and compelling thought or an argument that has not been rehearsed verbatim beforehand? Biden's age has been THE issue for many months. I think Kamala could pull it off if she owned her 'prosecutor' persona. She wouldn't let up on Trump for a second and she's got youthful stamina. All of the sudden, Trump looks old.
Apparently he managed to preside over the NATO summit. He's been leading the country pretty well these four years. I liked Kamala and voted for her for Senate. So Biden has 15 times the amount of legislative and leadership experience than Harris but since its all about looks over substance. I guess she'll be fine. Why not? It's not like she'll beat Trump or anything
Yes, Biden has done astoundingly well at actually 'presidenting' and runs circles around just about anyone in his ability to push legislation through Congress. Not to mention creating an international coalition for Ukraine. Unfortunately, I don't think this election is about how good Biden is at his job as president. Otherwise, this race would not even be close. Trump should be losing by double digits. To paraphrase a famous quote, nobody ever lost money underestimating the intelligence of the American people. I hope I'm being too cynical.
Absolutely not. I do realize that the majority of people are ignorant. But that's why smart people and the Democratic Party have to hammer it home that they are behind Biden 24/7. That he would be the greatest president who ever lived. If we show weakness and give up on out candidate, we are saying the that being a really good president doesn't matter and if it doesn't matter, why not Trump. At least we'll be amused. Except for his being a fascist, rapist, NAZI and a lot of people might very well be killed.
You do have a good point about how Democrats always betray doubt and disunity in themselves, something Trumpist NEVER do.
Thanks. It would be easier if we didn't care
I'm sure you and I will be okay, probably, so why worry? Be happy. Wipe you laptop history clean so the MAGA police who hire Chinese IT experts to scan everyone's internet comments.
Fortunately I live in a blue area of a blue state. Good point about scrubbing histories. I am concerned that tech companies will roll over for Trump (revealing internet histories, emails etc) because they are afraid of being targeted. Hell, that's half of why companies (tech bros are another matter; half of them are authoritarian-curious) are making nice to him NOW.
The grown uo thing to do would be to say out loud what they're saying off the record, that they think Biden should drop out. More grown up than lying to their voters.
I am not sure that acting like Republicans is a good example of growing up. Neither is calculating probabilities based on multiple polls whining. The sense that many have that Biden is a weak campaigner is based on more than his first debate. And to say that he is a weak candidate is not to say that he is or would be a weak President. But then: the voters. I myself will vote for him, but given the State that I live in, my vote and the votes of my Democratic fellow travelers will count for nothing.
The thing I both hate admire about Reublicans is that no matter what, they support their candidate. Biden is a good President even old he will be a better president than Trump. So if Bidrn acts old or forgetful they need to double down as the Republicans do for Trump. Never say your candidate isn't up for the job. Say Biden works so much and has so many things on his mind, Bidrn does get tired its because he gives his all for the American people. That's what Republicans do.
The debate became the strategy just like Hilarys emails. Find an issue no matter how small and constantly beat it like a drum.
Perhaps it is easier for Republicans to stand by Trump and say the sky is green and the world is flat because their MAGA base is easier to gaslight than Dems. It seems to me that a big chunk of them are deeply credulous people. Perhaps the Dems (one hopes) are more like the little boy in Andersen's famous folktale and can see the Emperor is naked.
Yeah but Biden is not naked. He's old. He had a bad night. That does negate 50 years of experience. He had a very good 1st term. He chooses good people. He's respected by world leaders. Isn't that enough? Why is everybody piling on? There is no candidate that has a better than Biden. Anyone they tear to shreds. They will go thru that person's entire life looking for the slightest miistake, lie, bad comment, traffic tickets and they will blow it all up out of proportion. They will shred him or her.
Yep, thats all fair. If I thought it was simply 'a bad night' I'd still be with the team as it is and be with you on this. But I think there is something seriously wrong. What we saw wasn't just being tired or having a cold. He has declined in a remarkably accelerated fashion since his wonderful SOTU. I really believe it is likely he will continue to show a precipitating decline. If that is the case he will be humiliated in a spectacular fashion by the time the election arrives. None of us want that. I sincerely believe his stepping aside is the best hope there is to beat Trump. I would bet my last dollar that the Trump team are desperately hoping the Dems stick with Biden too. At the end of the day if Biden were up against Haley or Romney or any other Republican who was not out to toss democracy onto the rubbish tip of history I'd probably say stick with him as you suggest. But Trump and Project 2025 make that impossible for me.
His follow ups have not given any reason for changing the judgment that he just doesn't have it. The debate was set up to answer the age question once and for all. Unfortunately it did just that.
For a real energy bump for the Dems would be for Biden to wait for Trump to announce his VP and the. Biden announce he’s out during the GOP convention to take away all the attention as well as enrage Trump——THAT would be dark Biden!
Hard agree. Get through NATO summit, let the GOP have its cult revival meeting next week, Trump pick his VP, and then have Biden announce he's out during Trump's acceptance rant. Otherwise, if Democratic leadership is resigning themselves to playing some sort of loyal opposition role starting next year, then why am I donating $$ to their campaign?!?
I'm getting multiples of emails every day asking for donations to the Biden campaign. I stopped donating after the debate and have been waiting for him to step aside so I could contribute to Harris. It's not happening. My wallet remains closed.
How can these elected dems behind closed doors tell Ezra they would be fine with a Donald Trump presidency, and then walk over to Zelenskyy who is in in town with NATO right now, and tell him we support you?
Face it. A majority of Democrats are stupid losers and have no courage and no loyalty. They don't care about Zelinsky
The only way Biden can drop out is if he also steps down as President! Its why think we will see President Biden to have some sort of health issue. But he cannot just stop at this point. IMO
The question is why isnt the Bulwark going over the Epstein FIles with Trump? Seems to me that THe Bulwark is helping Trump get elected.
YES BIDEN is OLD.. EVERYONE KNOWS THAT!
The Polls are wrong. America will not vote for a Convicted Felon Convicted Sexual Abuser.
I have heard a couple of people say Biden can’t drop out without resigning, and I just don’t understand. At Biden’s age, saying that you can do 6 more months as President is vastly different than saying you can do 4.5 more years.
Agree. And doing the hardest job in the world acceptably for six months is not the same as doing the hardest job in the world for six months PLUS campaigning to keep that job.
I don't know why we aren't talking about the ridiculous speeches Trump is making now. Sounds like a fucking moron! But you'll never here a Republican dis their candidate.
DANG TIM !!!! I felt a bit numb after this pod! Wonderful show, even though my brain feels like it's broken now. 🥺
The alternative attack may be AOC calling for impeachment against Thomas and Alito. No idea if this can gain traction, but she can effectively make an argument.
Well it seems one thing both sides of this argument can agree on. We need more fighters, more offense. GO AOC
But AOC isn't fighting for Biden. If Trump gets in power she'll probably be thrown in jail.
I don't care who she's fighting for.
That's probably why she isn't engaging in the "should we replace Biden" question.
If you don't believe Biden will step down, then your only hope is to push forward despite him. And if he does step down, then you can always back the new candidate later.
Unfortunately, I was not surprised to hear that the Dems don’t care. They are rich politicians who think they will be fine regardless of the outcome. We cannot rely on Democratic politicians to defend our democracy, as they live in privileged bubbles and won’t feel the effects.
This might be the most infuriating thing I’ve listened to. How are Dems losing to Trump. If Trump wins, all the Democratic leadership can go. This is a very winnable race.
The hypertension-provoking revelations exceed my worst fears about the Democrats. But it may explain why the Democrats seem to be blithely committing national suicide: they don't think Trump is a threat.
I'll say it for the umpteenth time. The Democrats won't save us. Relying on them to maintain a majority anti-Trump coalition until the Republican party self-corrected in electoral defeat was never sustainable. There must be a clean slate and a clean break from both parties.
If Biden does not step down, there must be a new candidate to run as an independent. I know. I know. I know. At this late date, it would require a write-in campaign in several states. We must conjure the willpower the Democrats clearly lack. We must. Liz Cheney / Adam Kinzinger now. We cannot be a party to either the Republicans' national homicide or the Democrats' national suicide.
I'm up for a Harris / Kinzinger ticket myself.
You are arguing that Cheney/Kinzinger would win?
I posit they would. Yes. I believe both are transformational leaders. If they as a ticket suddenly took the stage, I believe a weary nation would ditch the alternatives. I don't have polling data to back that up. I don't have anything other than my instincts. I won't fault you for disagreeing with me. But I believe they or someone else should do it.
I'm fine with someone else. But I don't think there is any way that ticket could win. I think the theory that the nation is weary is incorrect. Many voters are very enthusiastic about returning to Trump. The weary voters are in the minority.
I'd be up for any center-left to center-right nationally known figures on the ticket. I don't believe most rank-and-file Republican voters are enthusiastic for Trump. My instincts fail me for understanding his appeal. I can understand their disdain for Democrats, though. Bigtime. And for some of the same reasons.
An independent run will only split the vote and lead to a Trump win. We need to take a lesson from France and put on a united front. It doesn't matter if it's Biden, Whitmer, Kamala, or someone else, everyone needs to coalesce around one candidate and one party.
He has been saying the same thing for 2 years. Biden could have a perfect debate and he was going to do the same thing
I no longer accept that adage as axiomatically true. I want both Trump and Biden to lose. We have a coup plotter versus an addled invalid. Both are unfit. We are in uncharted territory, so your priors are worthless. If the Democrats do not fix their problem, I'm out. I'm not giving them a blank check, especially not after hearing what Ezra Klein divulged. I am done with the Democrats.
These aren't my priors. It's the literal function of a first past the post electoral system. Like it or not, a third party divides coalitions and strengthens the other side.
Unless you plan to revamp the entire voting system prior to October a moderate or center left third party will only help Trump
I hear you. The problem is this. The Democrats failed the coalition. They failed their country. The Republicans betrayed their country. The Democrats failed it. It's time for drastic action.
Biden is fine. Stop! Yes he's old but that's why he has advisors. When he's n office he can get Harris do the heavy lifting while he acts presidential and heads meetings and makes the important decisions with his advisors.
My concern is that voters (especially undecideds) consider this less than transparent like a bait & switch and either don't vote or don't vote Biden/Harris.
Honestly, I've been thinking about this lately. If Biden is too old, is there really a fundamental difference between a Biden/Harris ticket and a Harris/??? ticket?
Maybe it's time to turn the Republican "a vote for Biden is a vote for Harris" attack line against them
I don't fully agree with you but there is much truth in what you say. IF Biden is the nominee then Cheney-Kinzinger makes a lot of sense, they have my vote. Biden running means a Dem death march.
No it doesn't. He gave a good speech at the NATO summit. He met with world leaders who respect him unlike the Democrats. While Trump was garbling a stupid message about children and airports. Why isn't the NYT dishing that speech.
I hated Ezra Klein for pushing to get Biden out of the race but after that debate, I realized Biden has lost it. That did not look like a bad night. I’m on the fence. I worry about the unknown. I don’t know if Biden may have a health condition (besides aging) that will come out any time now and I don’t know the reaction if Biden does drop out. I do know if we don’t do anything, we are driving off a cliff with Biden at the wheel. I’m a total mess at the moment.
Hang in there. If you can volunteer for a good down ballot race that may help channel your energy somewhere positive.
Hang in there, Jill. We don't know how this drama ends.
Tim, if you're looking for a good reading distraction, I'd like to recommend the Quadrail series by Timothy Zahn. It's a sci-fi thriller, basically a lot of plotting and spying and action. These are not books that will engage your brain very much, they won't make you worry, but they are very fast and fun and they read smoothly. Also, it will keep you away from politics in a very far way.
After the first half I was even more furious with the Democratic Party than I had been (and I was already almost apoplectic). But in the end I was actually calmer, for at that moment I was happy to be in my bubble with a couple of coincident thinking voices instead of having to watch the Democratic Party establishment continue to perpetrate a subterfuge and lie to voters about Biden. That he is unable to campaign in a competitive manner is evident. There’s too much at stake. If I as a committed anti Trump voter am seriously struggling with Biden, then what are the chances that a waffling voter will select him. OK. Now I’ve worked my way back to anger again 😂. But thanks for the brief respite
Excellent work. This is what the Bulwark does the best: having thoughtful difficult (minority-position) conversations at the most crucial times. That is why I read, listen and subscribe. Keep doing it, please. We can all take a break if it becomes too much for us, the readers/listeners, but you should not stop, it’s the mission of your organization and you are doing a good job. As a note, my father was active in politics for about 20 years (not as a candidate, but as a party organizer). My mother was an party election observer for the first local election after a very long non-democratic hiatus. I was about 8 or 9 and I was given the job to deliver her lunch at the electoral college she was volunteering at. My family planned my outfit (casual but not too casual), my hair (braids pinned on top of my head, as I was going to a party of some sorts), and the time I was to show up with lunch (the exact time most families ate at home). They wanted to model how normal private people should engage in civic participation in the political process, since the previous attemp at free electoral representation in my grandparents time had spiraled in chaos and violence. I remember that when I arrived my mother was to busy to pay attention and told me to put her lunch on the table by her side and leave (I am not sure she ever ate it). She stayed until the preliminary results were certified by the election commission and didn’t make it home until the early hours of the next morning (too much for a mother of seven, that was her last political volunteering gig). When my dad finally stepped down from political organizing, I remember how disillusioned he was by the party types that would put their careers over the general good. Hearing that it is still the motivation by too many people in all political organizations doesn’t surprise me at all.
thanks much
You’re doing the Lord’s work here, Tim (and krewe). Thank you for the sanity.
I hope you DON’T drop talking about this. Thank you for being a Bulwark against the “let’s just move on already, that’s so two weeks ago” impulse. To me, efforts to keep our Democracy are worth whatever time or effort it takes. Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Got to the end of the ep and half expected to hear Ezra go "always our final question, what are three books you'd recommend?" lol
OUTSTANDING interview Tim. Has to be one of my favorite pod episodes. I'm a big Ezra fan and to hear the two of you together was a real treat. It not only explained a great deal, but the intelligence and clear-eyed observation on both sides of the conversation left me with a sense of hope. Perhaps not for any particular electoral outcome, but if thought leaders like you two can continue to engage in this kind of stimulating discourse, things can't be all that bad. To you and the entire Bulwark crew - keep up the always honest work. I'm grateful for it.
This!
I too am grateful.
Two things in the last week have actually been good: Kendrick’s Not Like Us music video and this mashup Klein & Miller.
Great conversation as per usual.
I’ll lay my cards on the table. I would prefer Biden doesn’t drop out. Not because I think the debate wasn’t awful but because I don’t trust our voters to vote for a woman or a minority. I hope I am wrong.
If Biden drops out it has to be Kamala in my opinion. I just don’t get the fantasy “blitz primary.” You guys can make up a term all you want but it’s just trying to hide what it is: a brokered convention. That’s it. That’s what it is. There will be no democrat voter voting. The delegates will not look at polls to make their decision because (1) they never have and (2) the polls will be all over the place and will have such polling errors to be virtually worthless.
I guess just can’t get over how you wave away what the brokered convention would look like. Guys, we have history to show us what happens (2016, 1968 and 1960). Second you guys saw the 2020 debate stage. You know what and who dems are. They will be debating Israel, defund the police, Medicare for all, guns, packing the court, killing the filibuster, climate, etc. the reason I know this is (1) historically this is how dems fight and (2) how else would any candidate distinguish themselves on the stage?
Finally, Tim you have said for the longest time that the biggest gift to Trump is him being out of the news. Now all of a sudden let’s give dems wall to wall coverage for 7 weeks? I’m sorry but those beliefs have major conflicts with each other.
I feel like I’m with you on Kamala (recommend a listen to the second half of Tim’s podcast, centered on Kamala), but I believe there’s still time to design a workable and exciting primary process.
I was also interested to learn today that Humphrey only lost by one percentage point of the popular vote in 1968.
Percentage 43.4% 42.7%
The unions were more powerful then. They were able to educate their members on Wallace.
I mean he was running against 3 people though and he kind of trounced hunphrey in the ec.
Can you explain to me what you mean by the primary now? This is where I lose people. I mean this is just going to be a delegate fight at the convention. I don’t understand what good is going to be had by having debates where we talk about Medicare or all and Israel. Maybe I’m missing something
Yes I don’t know but surely there are people who could figure out the way to do this without chaos?? Written policy statements? Speeches only, not debates? I read James Carville’s and Anne Applebaum’s models and found them inspirational. We have a country and party full of brilliant people. I just balk at throwing in the towel.
That isn’t the problem. The problem is these are laws.
At the end of the day the delegates have to vote and certify the candidate. These are state laws and some national ones too. If you were a 28 year old union leader who had a chance to choose the next president would you give that power up? Your union would hate you if you did.
What you are asking for is to not to be polarizing. I agree completely with that. But the delegates will want to know where you stand on Israel or policing or Israel or nato. You can’t avoid a debate about the policy. Otherwise what is the point? 7 people get up and give speeches and draw no distinction between each other is useful how? They need to stake positions that they defend so that the delegates can choose. If you’re not going to have realistic debates what’s the point of going through the charade…just choose Kamala and move on because if the above happens and you don’t choose Kamala people are going to cry foul.
I actually agree Kamala would be fantastic and has been way underrated. Let the prosecutor take it to the felon!!😊
I want that to be true…i just don’t trust voters to elect a smart aggressive black woman. I hope I’m wrong
Migs, we tend to see eye to eye. This is absolutely correct. Dems are so focused on defeating their own nominee that they’re letting the other guy go free. The logic isn’t there for me and it’s detrimental. This news cycle has been like a mutating virus where the more people who speak out, the more unfit Biden seems to win, the more unfit he seems to win, the more people speak out. It’s horrible and they seem to feel so righteous in doing it.
Yep. That’s where I tend to land.
Look in all for the conversation is Kamala better than biden in his current state. There are real reasons to debate that. I may have a different opinion but I could be persuaded. She is smart and thoughtful and will bring the case to Trump. That being said I just don’t trust old white people in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan to pull the lever enough to deliver a win. I also don’t trust that she can juice the turnout enough with minorities. If Biden does dropout then I will pray that is the case.
What I can’t buy into is if it’s not Kamala the knife fighting and leaking that will ensue would be good for Dems. I just don’t believe that. It’s like saying all this Biden should drop out media coverage is good for Dems. It’s clearly not.
I also don’t understand people saying that the contested convention will test the candidate. How? They are trying to convince 4k delegates to pull the lever for them. They will horse trade insane policies for insane policies. I just don’t know what I am missing.
There must be good ways of testing that data. Isn’t Kamala polling better than JB right now? And just instinctively I suspect that anyone who would automatically be a “no”
to Kamala is already on the Trump tally. Anyone voting for Joe now is already voting for Kamala, likely within the next 4 years.
Yes and no. She is neither polling a point or two behind Biden or even. However then you have to ask why change if that’s the case.
Here is the most important question: do you think white voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will more likely vote for a smart aggressive black woman or an old white man. I think the later but I hope I’m wrong.
We’re on the same page. Kamala is the only potentially viable option, the open convention talk is nonsense. Regardless of her campaign and who she is, I also think the reality of Biden stepping aside this close to the election would cause lots of chaos and unease with the Democratic Party as a whole.
I hope all of the Democrats who are publicly backing Biden while whispering to reporters that he has no chance of beating Trump are looking forward to a 2nd Donald Trump administration, where they will get to see Aileen Cannon made a Supreme Court justice, North Korean-style tank parades for every holiday, and the alligator moat/border wall built across the entire southern border.
Is it bad for me to say after the debate they should have sucked it up and changed the narrative? I know that’s not ideal and not what we “deserve”, but I mean cmon. With how news cycles go these days I think this could have been a 2-3 day story but now it’s democrats, not republicans making the case against their own guy. They say they want to beat Trump so badly and that’s why they’re doing this and I don’t doubt the intentions but are they so ignorant as to the consequences of this?
The current President looking cognitively impaired in front of tens of millions of Americans isn’t a 2-3 day story. It’s a cataclysmic event which has probably killed Joe Biden’s chances of winning the election, hence all the talk from Democrats/anti-Trump figures about trying to get Biden out of the race.
It is when you’re running against Donald Trump who was just apart of substantial Epstein leaks where he was accused of raping a 13 year old. That’s my point. Ted Lieu is the one who has to say that to the public while everyone else is debating their own nominee. He was old, people knew it, the debate certainly made it worse but I think it was fixable. After these two weeks of in fighting though, I’m not so sure. When I say the Dems did it to themselves I mean they took a coffin and nailed it shut instead of trying to open it and nail the other guys.
Tim and Esra are being self serving saying that people leaving this pod they want information silo. For me, I feel this podcast has been repetitive, and not really giving us new information. I don't want to hear an echo chamber. I also am looking forward to hearing other stories on this podcast. So I have been skipping some of them.
Echo everything on the rage front.
The thing that gives me pause is the "much more magnetic and charismatic in person than people realize". I've heard this song before, and I did not like how it ended.
Thanks for this discussion - it was enraging and therapeutic at the same time. But I am most mad about the book recommendation. Was Ezra referring to Emily Witt's book Health and Safety that doesn't come out until September? https://bookshop.org/p/books/health-and-safety-a-trip-through-the-age-of-dissociation-emily-witt/20993803 I need therapeutic reading now!
Tim, I'm also experiencing your blood pressure levels and you're *exactly* right when you say that a lot of these people who say one thing behind closed doors and do another in public are going to hand Trump the WH keys simply because they're trying to avoid career fallout in being honest. This is the kind of shit we'd expect from republicans and now we're seeing it within team blue. It's fucking pathetic.
Honest question: At what point should journalists, whom are also citizens of this nation besides just being journalists, be obligated to out their sources if their sources are being blatantly two-faced about something of such tremendous importance? At what point does their individual concern for their careers or devotion to journalistic ethics cross a line at the expense their country?
They’re waiting to write their books for the big reveal. It’s all a payday for MSM.
Hard Q to answer. I think you’d need to ask it to a journalist to be honest.
Yep. We are about two weeks away from burn your sources time.
This is just further evidence that, though the healthier party, the Democratic Party isn't immune from the sickness that has overtaken the Republican Party. In the end, humans are humans; we're not really that distinct from each other. This whole thing has been so eerily close to the Trump Republican era, it's been quite depressing.
Shit reminds me of those zombie movies where some dude gets bitten and then has to hide it through a quarter of the movie before he inevitably turns.
Holy shit, yes! And the audience hates those characters because they're selfish assholes that endanger everything and everyone though they know better. Fucking assholes.
Actually I feel betrayed by these individuals. In fact, even if the opponent was not Trump, I would question why you would deliberately continue on a course you felt would fail. Makes me strongly question their judgment.
People need to hear Ezra's reporting that the Democratic leadership voices insisting that Biden can win don't believe it.
Aw I’m so sorry you feel lied too. Doesn’t matter. Sorry if this is insensitive but post debate no matter how bad it was, the talk should have been “yeah it wasn’t bidens great night but trump was crazy and said xyz”, control the narrative and expose him for who he is. Honestly I’m sorry, but the Dems should have continued to gaslight themselves about Bidens age for 5 more months, they’ve done it for 3 years already. But here we are dragging our nominee through the mud and letting the other psychopath skate on through. Quite a strategy to win!
You aren't serious if you think that an open convention won't be factional. Good reason to believe isn't evidence, Esra. I don't understand the issue with Kamala Harris.
Literally all conventions were open conventions until 1972. The Democrats had a really bad one in 1968 and now we assume they all will be. It would be a ratings bonanza! It would reinforce the message that we actually live up to our values! Trump wouldn’t be able to get a word in edgewise, and the candidate could run run as a fresh face with new ideas!
Thank you Eva. My god it’s like they can’t look at history to see what happens
The problem is, that democrats are damned if they do and damned if they don't on this issue. They could change horses and still lose. All you are doing is pushing splits in the democrats, rather than promoting a realistic path for getting an alternative candidate in the race and winning with that candidate. Both Tim and Ezra make career related decisions all the time - criticizing others for doing the same is just crappy. Also your comments on motives are your opinion, not based on evidence. The problem is Joe Biden being willing to run even if it tears the party apart. That's what I took from his statements this week.
Who doesn't admit that they could change horses and still lose? No one that I have heard.
What is your proposal?
Pretty enraging. Lies got us into this crisis, and we're not going to lie ourselves out of this crisis. Continuing to lie will simply make this worse. Democratic politicians refusing to publicly speak the truth about the leader of our party reminds me of a certain party that virtually every person in this space has condemned for the last 8 years. I know I've had a lot to say over the last 8 years about the lies and cowardice of Republicans. My party is bringing shame upon itself and upon me.
On non-Biden but still related note regarding party shortcomings, Why the hell is Bob Menendez still in the Senate?
If Biden is the nominee, I'll vote for him, but I'm reregistering as Independent after the DNC.
If Biden is NOT the nominee, I will register independent after the election. Not sure I will ever vote again if the Dems boot Biden. Because unlike so many I can see that there really is NO TIME left. The time to replace Biden was 12 months ago. That ship sailed, the plane is in the air, and we all better damn well hang together or we will most assuredly hang separately. (Many will be on trump’s hit list)
I am channeling my inner Cassandra and believe that with this brouhaha the democrats are once again snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and shooting themselves in both feet and the hand not holding the gun.
Biden is simply not up to snatching anything anymore. His ship has sailed. And to use another cliche, there's no time like the present, to make a change.
Go ahead and lose, idiot.
Yes, we can disagree but there is no need to hurl insults.
I’m sorry, but in what universe does it look like Biden is winning to you? “the democrats are once again snatching defeat from the jaws of victory”? Biden is losing handily to a convicted felon/adjudicated rapist/fraudster who wants to terminate parts of The Constitution. He, and anyone defending him, needs to wake up and realize he cannot win this election. He doesn’t have it and we’re all going to suffer for his delusions (or ego?).
Is there some current evidence pointing to a Biden victory? Besides the Lichtman "keys," which he himself says accrue equally to Harris, if she becomes the incumbent before the election.
Ezra's reporting about the behind the scenes views of Democratic leadership that Biden cannot win needs to be shouted from the rooftops. In a sane world, this would flip the script that the Biden-retention crowd is all for the best chance of winning.
Esra's ideas of how to solve this - a brokered convention are nutty. Esra is good at identifying problems, but has he ever been part of a contested convention as a delegate - not as media? If not, he doesn't know what he's talking about.
Same.
The point about what Dems actually believe.......Jonah Goldberg has made this point 1000 times.
Goldberg? You mean the guy who wrote "Liberal Fascism" only a few years before conservatives nominated an actual fascist?
Yeah, Biden isn’t acting like an autocrat at all right now.
Come on man. This is just you being mad because that idiot was dead wrong. Being an autocrat is…following electoral law. Got it
Ok, so just to be clear, you are saying Biden is trying to push back on replacement talk purely because of his allegiance to electoral law.
You are attributing motives without evidence. If you work someplace, you are unlikely to trash your workplace, or your boss in the media. There is nothing nefarious about this simple fact.
Well, sometimes it could be nefarious.
Jonah’s opinion is worthless. He won’t vote for any dem. So who cares?
Yeah, you have to vote for a democrat to make your opinion worth something.
I mean he blamed the democrats for republicans not impeaching Trump because…they didn’t let republicans craft the articles of impeachment.
He literally blames everything on dems for what republicans do. He claims that Bork from 30 years ago caused Mitch not to hold a hearing for a Supreme Court justice. He claims that calling republicans racists has caused maga. He doesn’t care that republicans call dems communist and pedos…and yet they didn’t go authoritarian. He wrote a fucking book called liberal fascism. Can you be any more fucking wrong? He was on Fox News for 2 years after republicans claimed the election was stolen and before they settled a 780m lawsuit. I mean have the ability to shut the fuck up and admit “everything I’ve been spouting for 30 years is dead fucking wrong.”
Look if he said change out the candidate and I will vote for Kamala, I get it. But he won’t. He is a bloviator. Always has been but now it’s front and center. Sucks for him.
Ok, now I understand. You don’t actually read him or listen to his stuff.
I mean if your statement isn’t a self own I don’t know what is. It’s like an author writing in 1910 in Russia “conservatives become communist.” The dude is a bloviator. Yes I read him for years and I liked him but my god he was just wrong and has been wrong for a decade or more
Clearly you haven’t really listened to him or read him in the past 10 years. He loathes the Rebublican party.
This conversation was infuriating. Tim, you did not oversell it. I feel like I have been duped by the Democrats for the last few years.
I’m not sure why you think this is such a hard interview to listen to. I’d much rather hear it than pretend it doesn’t exist.
I think it's hard to listen to because it's painful. Just like a family intervention.
People in the Trump opposition frequently say, as you did today, "People need to watch the whole speech, not just the crazy clips." So here's an idea: To provide substance and energy to the media campaign needed to rally the anti-Trump coalition to defeat him, we need a *dedicated YouTube or Vimeo channel of annotated videos of Trump's speeches and rally appearances.* My working title for this channel is "True the Trump!".
"True the Trump" would have some or all of the following properties:
1. It would contain video of Donald Trumps speeches at rally's and other public appearances, from beginning to end. These videos would be unedited in the sense that they wouldn't be manipulated to remove anything that Trump says or to inject any "cheap fakery."
2. But the videos would be "annotated", i.e. text, images, and perhaps other video and audio would be added to them to expose Trump's lies, highlight his insanity, call attention to the grift, etc. The creative possibilities here are pretty much endless, but here are a few suggestive examples to show what I have in mind:
- Think JVL's fact check: When Trump lies about black or latino unemployment, or about urban crime rates, etc., True the Trump would add a graph to show compare the what data shows about the Trump vs. Biden presidency.
- Think mugshots: When he says he's going to drain the swamp or surround himself with the best people, populate the screen around him with mugshots of all the people from Trump world who have been tried and convicted of serious crimes. When he talks about the Jan. 6 “patriots”, surround him with a select group of Jan. 6 convict mugshots with captions saying what they did.
- Think thought bubbles in the audience: To capture some of the crazy and incoherent aspects of his speeches, thought bubbles can be added to the people behind him. Just ask yourself what the people behind him are thinking when he does his "The Shark or the Battery?" ramble. I'm sure "Huh?" and "What?" would be very popular for such thought bubbles, but as fodder for comedy based on this technique, Trump is the motherload.
- ... and so on.
3. Segmentation: Thoughtful segmentation of the videos would be useful in creating a resource for social media excerpts and recombination. I'm not a TicTock person, but I suspect that anti-Trump coalition members who are could make good use of this material.
4. Show notes: Winning people's trust is obviously one of the most difficult things you can try to do these days, but by putting the sources for True the Trump annotation claims and other reasonably authoritative pointers to documentation into the show notes, we can help those who are trying to build the case against Trump on specific issues or with specific voter groups.
"Flooding the zone with shit" and accusing your opponents of doing what you are already doing ("strategically dishonest projection") are two fundamental tools in Trump's heinous toolbox. You need to try to neutralize or reverse them both. Their weakness is that the stories, the claims, the tropes that he uses to implement them are repetitious; he recycles the same shit over and over again, with mostly minor variations. That means that, for the most part, the annotations used for one Trump video can be repurposed for others. The purpose of True the Trump would be to construct a living, growing media dam for the river of shit, in order to make it start backing up on the Maga geiser that is spewing it.
AOC said "The matter is closed."
LOL
I think Jen Rubin's recent podcast and WaPo oped suggests a path to victory for Biden - which would mean running as a democrat, attributing more of his successes - especially in foreign policy to staff. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/09/biden-choice-two-visions/
Tim I love you, but I'm pausing with your podcasts until you get off the discussion about Biden stepping down. We need to move past it.
Bye. We'll let you know what happens.
This is just denial.
Important reporting from Ezra that overwhelmingly Democratic Party leadership does not believe Biden can win. Defeatism has set in. To my mind, this flips the script. Those advocating just moving on are accepting losing to Trump, even if they don't realize it yet.
I’m sure we’ll read about it after the fact in a book. People bitch and moan about politicians. What about media? If you are a journalist and you know democracy is on the line, where is your courage to do what’s right and speak up. Name names. Question and call out in public. I don’t want Ezra’s gossip, I need him to hold politician’s feet to the fire here. No offense, but I dgaf about what Tim & Ezra think or hear. Put up the proof or shut up.
I'm not suggesting moving on from whether or not Biden steps down, I'm suggesting that the Bulwark stop talking about it on every podcast for the past 2 weeks. I know how they feel. I feel the same way for the most part, but let's talk about something else.
Here we are, 9 days later, and they're still doing it. It's getting a little repetitive. It's an important issue, but there's not enough news to justify the amount of focus on it.
Sort of hard to move past it when every day, more Democratic officials/donors call for Biden to step aside.
You finally got Ezra on! Congrats Tim! Yayy!