I’ll lay my cards on the table. I would prefer Biden doesn’t drop out. Not because I think the debate wasn’t awful but because I don’t trust our voters to vote for a woman or a minority. I hope I am wrong.
If Biden drops out it has to be Kamala in my opinion. I just don’t get the fantasy “blitz primary.” Yo…
I’ll lay my cards on the table. I would prefer Biden doesn’t drop out. Not because I think the debate wasn’t awful but because I don’t trust our voters to vote for a woman or a minority. I hope I am wrong.
If Biden drops out it has to be Kamala in my opinion. I just don’t get the fantasy “blitz primary.” You guys can make up a term all you want but it’s just trying to hide what it is: a brokered convention. That’s it. That’s what it is. There will be no democrat voter voting. The delegates will not look at polls to make their decision because (1) they never have and (2) the polls will be all over the place and will have such polling errors to be virtually worthless.
I guess just can’t get over how you wave away what the brokered convention would look like. Guys, we have history to show us what happens (2016, 1968 and 1960). Second you guys saw the 2020 debate stage. You know what and who dems are. They will be debating Israel, defund the police, Medicare for all, guns, packing the court, killing the filibuster, climate, etc. the reason I know this is (1) historically this is how dems fight and (2) how else would any candidate distinguish themselves on the stage?
Finally, Tim you have said for the longest time that the biggest gift to Trump is him being out of the news. Now all of a sudden let’s give dems wall to wall coverage for 7 weeks? I’m sorry but those beliefs have major conflicts with each other.
I feel like I’m with you on Kamala (recommend a listen to the second half of Tim’s podcast, centered on Kamala), but I believe there’s still time to design a workable and exciting primary process.
I was also interested to learn today that Humphrey only lost by one percentage point of the popular vote in 1968.
I mean he was running against 3 people though and he kind of trounced hunphrey in the ec.
Can you explain to me what you mean by the primary now? This is where I lose people. I mean this is just going to be a delegate fight at the convention. I don’t understand what good is going to be had by having debates where we talk about Medicare or all and Israel. Maybe I’m missing something
Yes I don’t know but surely there are people who could figure out the way to do this without chaos?? Written policy statements? Speeches only, not debates? I read James Carville’s and Anne Applebaum’s models and found them inspirational. We have a country and party full of brilliant people. I just balk at throwing in the towel.
That isn’t the problem. The problem is these are laws.
At the end of the day the delegates have to vote and certify the candidate. These are state laws and some national ones too. If you were a 28 year old union leader who had a chance to choose the next president would you give that power up? Your union would hate you if you did.
What you are asking for is to not to be polarizing. I agree completely with that. But the delegates will want to know where you stand on Israel or policing or Israel or nato. You can’t avoid a debate about the policy. Otherwise what is the point? 7 people get up and give speeches and draw no distinction between each other is useful how? They need to stake positions that they defend so that the delegates can choose. If you’re not going to have realistic debates what’s the point of going through the charade…just choose Kamala and move on because if the above happens and you don’t choose Kamala people are going to cry foul.
Migs, we tend to see eye to eye. This is absolutely correct. Dems are so focused on defeating their own nominee that they’re letting the other guy go free. The logic isn’t there for me and it’s detrimental. This news cycle has been like a mutating virus where the more people who speak out, the more unfit Biden seems to win, the more unfit he seems to win, the more people speak out. It’s horrible and they seem to feel so righteous in doing it.
Look in all for the conversation is Kamala better than biden in his current state. There are real reasons to debate that. I may have a different opinion but I could be persuaded. She is smart and thoughtful and will bring the case to Trump. That being said I just don’t trust old white people in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan to pull the lever enough to deliver a win. I also don’t trust that she can juice the turnout enough with minorities. If Biden does dropout then I will pray that is the case.
What I can’t buy into is if it’s not Kamala the knife fighting and leaking that will ensue would be good for Dems. I just don’t believe that. It’s like saying all this Biden should drop out media coverage is good for Dems. It’s clearly not.
I also don’t understand people saying that the contested convention will test the candidate. How? They are trying to convince 4k delegates to pull the lever for them. They will horse trade insane policies for insane policies. I just don’t know what I am missing.
There must be good ways of testing that data. Isn’t Kamala polling better than JB right now? And just instinctively I suspect that anyone who would automatically be a “no”
to Kamala is already on the Trump tally. Anyone voting for Joe now is already voting for Kamala, likely within the next 4 years.
Yes and no. She is neither polling a point or two behind Biden or even. However then you have to ask why change if that’s the case.
Here is the most important question: do you think white voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will more likely vote for a smart aggressive black woman or an old white man. I think the later but I hope I’m wrong.
We’re on the same page. Kamala is the only potentially viable option, the open convention talk is nonsense. Regardless of her campaign and who she is, I also think the reality of Biden stepping aside this close to the election would cause lots of chaos and unease with the Democratic Party as a whole.
Great conversation as per usual.
I’ll lay my cards on the table. I would prefer Biden doesn’t drop out. Not because I think the debate wasn’t awful but because I don’t trust our voters to vote for a woman or a minority. I hope I am wrong.
If Biden drops out it has to be Kamala in my opinion. I just don’t get the fantasy “blitz primary.” You guys can make up a term all you want but it’s just trying to hide what it is: a brokered convention. That’s it. That’s what it is. There will be no democrat voter voting. The delegates will not look at polls to make their decision because (1) they never have and (2) the polls will be all over the place and will have such polling errors to be virtually worthless.
I guess just can’t get over how you wave away what the brokered convention would look like. Guys, we have history to show us what happens (2016, 1968 and 1960). Second you guys saw the 2020 debate stage. You know what and who dems are. They will be debating Israel, defund the police, Medicare for all, guns, packing the court, killing the filibuster, climate, etc. the reason I know this is (1) historically this is how dems fight and (2) how else would any candidate distinguish themselves on the stage?
Finally, Tim you have said for the longest time that the biggest gift to Trump is him being out of the news. Now all of a sudden let’s give dems wall to wall coverage for 7 weeks? I’m sorry but those beliefs have major conflicts with each other.
I feel like I’m with you on Kamala (recommend a listen to the second half of Tim’s podcast, centered on Kamala), but I believe there’s still time to design a workable and exciting primary process.
I was also interested to learn today that Humphrey only lost by one percentage point of the popular vote in 1968.
Percentage 43.4% 42.7%
The unions were more powerful then. They were able to educate their members on Wallace.
I mean he was running against 3 people though and he kind of trounced hunphrey in the ec.
Can you explain to me what you mean by the primary now? This is where I lose people. I mean this is just going to be a delegate fight at the convention. I don’t understand what good is going to be had by having debates where we talk about Medicare or all and Israel. Maybe I’m missing something
Yes I don’t know but surely there are people who could figure out the way to do this without chaos?? Written policy statements? Speeches only, not debates? I read James Carville’s and Anne Applebaum’s models and found them inspirational. We have a country and party full of brilliant people. I just balk at throwing in the towel.
That isn’t the problem. The problem is these are laws.
At the end of the day the delegates have to vote and certify the candidate. These are state laws and some national ones too. If you were a 28 year old union leader who had a chance to choose the next president would you give that power up? Your union would hate you if you did.
What you are asking for is to not to be polarizing. I agree completely with that. But the delegates will want to know where you stand on Israel or policing or Israel or nato. You can’t avoid a debate about the policy. Otherwise what is the point? 7 people get up and give speeches and draw no distinction between each other is useful how? They need to stake positions that they defend so that the delegates can choose. If you’re not going to have realistic debates what’s the point of going through the charade…just choose Kamala and move on because if the above happens and you don’t choose Kamala people are going to cry foul.
I actually agree Kamala would be fantastic and has been way underrated. Let the prosecutor take it to the felon!!😊
I want that to be true…i just don’t trust voters to elect a smart aggressive black woman. I hope I’m wrong
Migs, we tend to see eye to eye. This is absolutely correct. Dems are so focused on defeating their own nominee that they’re letting the other guy go free. The logic isn’t there for me and it’s detrimental. This news cycle has been like a mutating virus where the more people who speak out, the more unfit Biden seems to win, the more unfit he seems to win, the more people speak out. It’s horrible and they seem to feel so righteous in doing it.
Yep. That’s where I tend to land.
Look in all for the conversation is Kamala better than biden in his current state. There are real reasons to debate that. I may have a different opinion but I could be persuaded. She is smart and thoughtful and will bring the case to Trump. That being said I just don’t trust old white people in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan to pull the lever enough to deliver a win. I also don’t trust that she can juice the turnout enough with minorities. If Biden does dropout then I will pray that is the case.
What I can’t buy into is if it’s not Kamala the knife fighting and leaking that will ensue would be good for Dems. I just don’t believe that. It’s like saying all this Biden should drop out media coverage is good for Dems. It’s clearly not.
I also don’t understand people saying that the contested convention will test the candidate. How? They are trying to convince 4k delegates to pull the lever for them. They will horse trade insane policies for insane policies. I just don’t know what I am missing.
There must be good ways of testing that data. Isn’t Kamala polling better than JB right now? And just instinctively I suspect that anyone who would automatically be a “no”
to Kamala is already on the Trump tally. Anyone voting for Joe now is already voting for Kamala, likely within the next 4 years.
Yes and no. She is neither polling a point or two behind Biden or even. However then you have to ask why change if that’s the case.
Here is the most important question: do you think white voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will more likely vote for a smart aggressive black woman or an old white man. I think the later but I hope I’m wrong.
We’re on the same page. Kamala is the only potentially viable option, the open convention talk is nonsense. Regardless of her campaign and who she is, I also think the reality of Biden stepping aside this close to the election would cause lots of chaos and unease with the Democratic Party as a whole.