My sense is that the press conference was ok, not great (a few gaffes and mixed up names). Biden made it clear he intends to be the candidate. I suspect he will be absent a catastrophic health event or if the big donor $ starts drying up (NY Times is reporting some of that today). Swing state polling looking worse for Biden but hard to k…
My sense is that the press conference was ok, not great (a few gaffes and mixed up names). Biden made it clear he intends to be the candidate. I suspect he will be absent a catastrophic health event or if the big donor $ starts drying up (NY Times is reporting some of that today). Swing state polling looking worse for Biden but hard to know if that's a lagging reaction to the debate debacle or something more permanent. We'll see.
Maris polls this morning have Biden ahead by 2 pnts. However, I don't trust polls. They are taken by landline and cell phone. Who has a landline? Who answers his cell if he doesn't know the caller? A small minority of older folks. Can their opinions be considered representative of the US voters?
Even if you believe the Marist poll, it's not good for Biden. As best as I can tell it's a national poll. For Biden to win he would have to be up at least 4 points in a national poll based on past correlations of national polls and winning campaigns. Article in today's NY Times (admittedly not the most objective source) has interviews with Arab-American voters in Michigan who will not vote for Biden. If Biden loses Michigan, he must win PA, WI and at least one of NV or AZ. It's possible but a very steep hill to climb.
What are we going to do? He is the president and he has been a good one. Trump is a criminal. If you can me a person who could run for Presidrnt and beat Trump, I'll campaign for him/er non stop.
It's academic at this point. Biden will be the candidate. He's not going to drop out. Most to hope for is Dems beat the bushes for registered Dems who are infrequent voters in the swing states and convince them to vote. It's a longshot.
My sense is that the press conference was ok, not great (a few gaffes and mixed up names). Biden made it clear he intends to be the candidate. I suspect he will be absent a catastrophic health event or if the big donor $ starts drying up (NY Times is reporting some of that today). Swing state polling looking worse for Biden but hard to know if that's a lagging reaction to the debate debacle or something more permanent. We'll see.
Maris polls this morning have Biden ahead by 2 pnts. However, I don't trust polls. They are taken by landline and cell phone. Who has a landline? Who answers his cell if he doesn't know the caller? A small minority of older folks. Can their opinions be considered representative of the US voters?
Even if you believe the Marist poll, it's not good for Biden. As best as I can tell it's a national poll. For Biden to win he would have to be up at least 4 points in a national poll based on past correlations of national polls and winning campaigns. Article in today's NY Times (admittedly not the most objective source) has interviews with Arab-American voters in Michigan who will not vote for Biden. If Biden loses Michigan, he must win PA, WI and at least one of NV or AZ. It's possible but a very steep hill to climb.
What are we going to do? He is the president and he has been a good one. Trump is a criminal. If you can me a person who could run for Presidrnt and beat Trump, I'll campaign for him/er non stop.
It's academic at this point. Biden will be the candidate. He's not going to drop out. Most to hope for is Dems beat the bushes for registered Dems who are infrequent voters in the swing states and convince them to vote. It's a longshot.