Get Ready for Weeks of Campaign Quakes
Major events, starting in days, could upend the race.
SOMETIMES EVENTS THAT REMAKE the political landscape can’t be seen ahead of time. But a series of dramatic events in the 2024 presidential campaign—ones that we know of—are set to unfold in the days and weeks ahead. Finally the dreaded, and seemingly immovable, rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump could see a shakeup.
From the first debate to the Supreme Court’s decision on Trump’s bid for immunity, from Trump’s July 11 sentencing in the New York court that found him guilty of 34 felonies to his announcement of a running mate and then his nominating convention on July 15, developments will come swiftly that could alter the strategies of both campaigns as well as the candidates’ poll positions.
In light of the Supreme Court’s February decision to consider a ruling on presidential immunity, the two critical federal cases that could have rocked the election are unlikely to wrap up, if they even proceed at all, before November. Court watchers expect a decision to come this week, as soon as Wednesday, though a busy docket could push some decisions to be announced next week.
Trump has demanded “absolute immunity” from criminal prosecution for actions he took while in office. This would place presidents above the law, and Trump has it in his head that the six justices nominated by Republicans, three by him, are going to rule in his favor.
But the conservative Court is not likely to grant broad immunity from crimes to presidents. They are also, based on the oral argument, not likely to reject Trump’s argument entirely—which would no doubt send the former president into a spiral of trashing the Court and those he appointed to it while opening up the possibility that he is either a defendant again before November, or that he is convicted in the election subversion case if he loses on November 5.
The most likely and least politically dangerous choice for conservatives on the Court is to decide that some narrow immunity can be attached to some official acts, in which case they will remand it back to the lower court trial judge, Tanya Chutkan, to then rule on which criminal charges it would apply to or not.
The barricades are up at the Supreme Court in anticipation of protests.
LET’S HOPE THE DECISION isn’t released on Thursday. At 9 p.m. on Thursday, our oldest-ever president will debate the former president in Atlanta—an explosive immunity decision by the high court could disrupt the coverage of the debate.
The debate is far earlier in the campaign than ever before (the previous record was September 21, back in 1980) and also will mark the first time presumptive nominees who hadn’t formally accepted their party’s nominations will face off. Despite the earliness in the election season, the high percentage of “double-haters” in this cycle—the roughly one quarter of the electorate that dislikes both candidates—could make it more likely that viewing exceeds expectations. Some voters are awaiting the faceoff to see who performs better. Still, most voters are going to learn about the performances of Biden and Trump through clips on social media.
Trump will attack Biden’s weaknesses—inflation and immigration—with vigor and likely score points. Biden, losing his physical stamina, must prove that his mental capacity far exceeds what the right portrays online—as well as the impression the president himself can give in his exchanges with the press. He needs to bring the energy, as well as substantive responses to questions about his liabilities like the border, without being defensive.
Since he cannot speak in full sentences—or with any clarity or detail—on policy, Trump will rant and ramble to kill the clock on harder questions of substance. It would help Biden if he can call out any issue, like the 2020 election, that Trump punts or lies about. A bad debate for Biden will likely boost Trump immediately, and perhaps permanently, in the remainder of the campaign.
SHOULD HE HAVE A BAD DEBATE, Trump can draw the veep card and announce his running mate immediately to change the coverage and conversation.
Or will he save it for his sentencing on July 11?
Or does he wait until the convention to try and boost ratings for the gathering?
No matter the outcome of Justice Juan Merchan’s sentencing decision, Trump will raise a shit-ton of money on July 11. Jail will make it rain while probation or community service will still make the cult howl.
Some legal experts believe that, because of his lack of remorse and his conduct attacking the court, Trump has a better chance of being sentenced to prison time than most nonviolent first-time offenders. Trump has also made clear he thinks jail time will help him. Merchan, however, seemed disinclined to put a former president in jail when he had to rule on Trump’s numerous violations of his gag order, saying at the time: “I do not want to impose a jail sanction, and I have done everything I can to avoid doing so.”
But that may not be consistent with Merchan’s past record. Ronald Kuby, a veteran defense attorney from New York, told Courthouse News that Merchan “tends to be harsher on white-collar criminals than many other judges. . . . That’s just his reputation . . . so that’s bad news for Trump.”
Dark take: Prison for Trump is bad for Biden. Something less spares Democrats the boomerang jail could yield politically and financially. Plus, if voters think rich guys always skate by without serving time, that could hurt Trump.
Whatever the sentence, keep in mind that Trump is appealing his conviction and won’t have to serve out any time anyway pending appeal. But a jail sentence is good for one side—Republicans.
FOUR DAYS AFTER THE SENTENCING, the Republican convention begins. The convention is the hard deadline by which Trump has to name his running mate.
A pick of either Marco Rubio, J.D. Vance, or Glenn Youngkin would create an instant surge of Republican excitement and a fundraising explosion. The base adores Vance—he has Tucker and Don Jr. cred—while Youngkin and Rubio are loved by the big donors who only pretend they like Trumpism. Should Trump select either of these three, GOP elites will tell themselves the party is only four years away from its post-Trump rehabilitation when a smart, young vice president will ascend to the top and govern with a brain. This is the denial that helps them write checks to coffers that pay Trump’s lawyers. The running mate is a focal point for them.
Less engaged, undecided voters who believe a vice president under Trump would be groomed for the presidency on Day One (and who don’t worry about whether he will actually step down in January 2029) may also find reason to support him because of a relatively youthful running mate—and Trump could see a new bounce in the polls.
Choosing North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum would not produce such a response, although having him—a measured, Midwestern governor— on the ticket could pay dividends in November if he somehow convinces swing voters he will bring calm and order to a second Trump term. He can’t. But Burgum will definitely shake down enough of his rich friends initially to lift fundraising.
Why would Trump forgo the excitement, and the show, to choose someone boring? Because Burgum won’t dream of running for president, won’t build his own power base, and—most importantly—would never upstage Trump. He checks serious psychological boxes.
A Burgum pick may give the Democrats a sigh of relief. But once Trump has a running mate, Republicans are likely to begin piling on Vice President Kamala Harris, just as Nikki Haley did repeatedly in her primary campaign, saying a vote for Biden is a vote for President Harris. The Biden campaign should have plans for Harris to push back with media appearances in which she draws contrasts with Trump’s pick and between Trump and Biden as well.
The Republican National Convention will feature the veep pick—either a second rollout or a first, depending on when the pick is named, showcasing his or her family. Melania could even resurface—the planners know it’s a Trump show top to bottom but will also attempt to make the party look as normal as possible to swing voters. The preferred vibe, in the run-up to Trump’s speech at the end of the gathering, will be: Not an illiberal cult, all good here! Forget Mike Pence, the coup, insurrectionists chasing Pence down to hang him with Trump’s incitement—that’s so four years ago.
Sure, Trump has already called the host city of Milwaukee “horrible,” but the goal there will be four days of drama-free Dear Leader worship. It’s not surprising that some participants, having overdosed on conspiracy theories and the Big Lie for four years, could end up creating some distractions. The Trump campaign recently had to tamp down a secret plot by some nutter delegates from Arizona to go rogue at the convention out of concern that Trump—to whom they pledge absolute loyalty—may have surrounded himself with some Deep Staters who will undermine him, or that he could pick a running mate who will, or that he would need Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn to replace him at the convention if he was in jail at the time. MAGA is a powerful drug.
IN ADDITION, THOUGH TRUMP HAS ABANDONED his former support for a federal abortion ban, pro-life leaders want him to keep it in the current platform language and not alter it before the RNC. As it stands the platform currently includes a national ban and a “human life amendment” to the Constitution providing legal protections for the fetus. The Trump campaign hasn’t committed to the current language.
Any intraparty division at the convention, especially on abortion, could potentially be exploited by Democrats, whose convention doesn’t take place until a month later.
Of course there could be other momentous events or transformative factors we don’t know—including tragedies personal or national—but these coming developments that we do know of are pivotal moments in the four remaining months of the general election campaign. They could change everything. Or nothing. But these will be three historic weeks.