Going on Offense
In Ukraine and Texas.
TNB was solid last night. If you missed it, watch the rewind here or listen to the podcast version here.
1. Ukraine
Over the last week Ukraine launched a major counteroffensive in the east with the goal of taking back Kherson—the only major city Russia has captured—and pushing east from Kharkiv.1 From what we can tell, Ukrainian forces seem to have executed a major breakthrough in the Russian line south of Kharkiv.
I don’t over-rely on maps—these are just estimates cobbled together from open-source material. So here’s a top-line overview from the Institute for the Study of War:
Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May.
Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8.
Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.
Ukrainian forces are continuing to target Russian GLOCs, command-and-control points, and ammunition depots in Kherson Oblast.
Point is: The Russians have a serious problem.
Let’s zoom in with a more detailed look:
Again: This is all very promising. But the imperative is to keep pushing.
Yesterday SecState Anthony Blinken traveled to Kyiv and announced another $2.2 billion in U.S. military aid. Which is good. Because winter is coming and as it gets cold, Russia will have it’s best chance to use its energy weapon against Europe in an attempt to break the alliance.
Which brings us to the second piece of good news: