I saw that article too, but I don't know that that is a consensus view.
Also, in warships, raw numbers of them isn't the way to gauge power. I repeatedly hear that China doesn't have the ability to project its naval power in the way the US does. Currently, a conflict with China would occur around Taiwan. Now that gives China an advantage …
I saw that article too, but I don't know that that is a consensus view.
Also, in warships, raw numbers of them isn't the way to gauge power. I repeatedly hear that China doesn't have the ability to project its naval power in the way the US does. Currently, a conflict with China would occur around Taiwan. Now that gives China an advantage of being close to home, but since Taiwan is the objective, it makes them vulnerable to area denial. They're also vulnerable to commerce restriction. Through air and sea power, they can be blockaded. The blockade doesn't have to be close to their coast like in the old days of blockades. With satellites, cargo ships can be tracked all the way from China to wherever they go that China can't protect. And who is going to ship something to China if their ships are going to be forfeit from doing so?
Beyond that, allies. Japan has a formidable navy, and S. Korea and Australia add to US capabilities too. Then add in the Europeans that would assist. China doesn't have allies. Not really. NK might join them, causing a big headache, but who else? Iran? Russia? No one is going to go up against the US, NATO, and the Pacific Allies in a global conventional war. That is why it is so critical to maintain and expand our alliances, contra to the massive damage Trump wants to cause.
We're mostly okay today, but the next 50 years is a period where we're going to need our alliances in a way we haven't for the last 30 years. I'm not worried about today, and as long as Trump isn't elected, I'm not terribly worried about the future. Russia has done the west a huge favor by giving it a wake up call and shooting itself in the foot. As long as we don't do something stupid like proclaim, "America First!!!!" we shouldn't have too hard a time maintaining a favorable balance of power.
I'm not sure I understand this concept of having allies and friends to count on. :)
I'm glad that the DoD(?) is required to put out a national defense assessment on a regular basis. I would like to think that we have the right people in place to assess and direct policy and procurement to mitigate the risks. We definitely will not have that with Trump. And, yes, Russia did do all of us a big favor. With China improving its military posture and Iran with its proxies, plus all the other uglies, we need to keep on our toes.
Look at Ukraine and how fast they're burning through munitions. I'd rather see a focus on munitions supply capability over worrying about the number of naval vessels. Heck, we can barely crew the ones we do have.
Thank you for the thoughtful reply and info. I know a lot about Russia, but little about China’s military. I do know Russia had been relying on outdated equipment—that mean numbers were completely irrelevant. It will be clear in the Ukraine battles that superior U.S. and Western equipment will be far superior no matter how many weapons Russia uses except that Russia chooses to do terrible damage to non-military targets with the hardware it has. It must also be becoming clear inside Russia that the war is not going well. Putin may try to drum up popular hatred of Ukraine, but we’ll see how far that gets him.
We don't know that much about either county's military. However, right now we know a lot more about Russia than China because the now 2 1/2 year war in Ukraine has outed Russian weakness and demonstrated that we overestimated their military capabilities.
We don't have accurate information about China's military either, but complacency and underestimation are foolish. On the other hand, if China were foolish enough to attempt a military take-over of Taiwan, the West might learn what China's actual capabilities, strengths and weaknesses are.
I saw that article too, but I don't know that that is a consensus view.
Also, in warships, raw numbers of them isn't the way to gauge power. I repeatedly hear that China doesn't have the ability to project its naval power in the way the US does. Currently, a conflict with China would occur around Taiwan. Now that gives China an advantage of being close to home, but since Taiwan is the objective, it makes them vulnerable to area denial. They're also vulnerable to commerce restriction. Through air and sea power, they can be blockaded. The blockade doesn't have to be close to their coast like in the old days of blockades. With satellites, cargo ships can be tracked all the way from China to wherever they go that China can't protect. And who is going to ship something to China if their ships are going to be forfeit from doing so?
Beyond that, allies. Japan has a formidable navy, and S. Korea and Australia add to US capabilities too. Then add in the Europeans that would assist. China doesn't have allies. Not really. NK might join them, causing a big headache, but who else? Iran? Russia? No one is going to go up against the US, NATO, and the Pacific Allies in a global conventional war. That is why it is so critical to maintain and expand our alliances, contra to the massive damage Trump wants to cause.
We're mostly okay today, but the next 50 years is a period where we're going to need our alliances in a way we haven't for the last 30 years. I'm not worried about today, and as long as Trump isn't elected, I'm not terribly worried about the future. Russia has done the west a huge favor by giving it a wake up call and shooting itself in the foot. As long as we don't do something stupid like proclaim, "America First!!!!" we shouldn't have too hard a time maintaining a favorable balance of power.
I'm not sure I understand this concept of having allies and friends to count on. :)
I'm glad that the DoD(?) is required to put out a national defense assessment on a regular basis. I would like to think that we have the right people in place to assess and direct policy and procurement to mitigate the risks. We definitely will not have that with Trump. And, yes, Russia did do all of us a big favor. With China improving its military posture and Iran with its proxies, plus all the other uglies, we need to keep on our toes.
Look at Ukraine and how fast they're burning through munitions. I'd rather see a focus on munitions supply capability over worrying about the number of naval vessels. Heck, we can barely crew the ones we do have.
Thank you for the thoughtful reply and info. I know a lot about Russia, but little about China’s military. I do know Russia had been relying on outdated equipment—that mean numbers were completely irrelevant. It will be clear in the Ukraine battles that superior U.S. and Western equipment will be far superior no matter how many weapons Russia uses except that Russia chooses to do terrible damage to non-military targets with the hardware it has. It must also be becoming clear inside Russia that the war is not going well. Putin may try to drum up popular hatred of Ukraine, but we’ll see how far that gets him.
We don't know that much about either county's military. However, right now we know a lot more about Russia than China because the now 2 1/2 year war in Ukraine has outed Russian weakness and demonstrated that we overestimated their military capabilities.
We don't have accurate information about China's military either, but complacency and underestimation are foolish. On the other hand, if China were foolish enough to attempt a military take-over of Taiwan, the West might learn what China's actual capabilities, strengths and weaknesses are.