Thank you for introducing me to the new meaning of "know intuitively". This is Mike Johnson's term for believing what you want to believe, regardless of factual information.
The precise term is 𝘣𝘶𝘭𝘭𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘵, something said without any concern for whether it is true. Ethically, it's worse than a lie. At least a liar knows what's true but is trying to conceal it. A bullshiter doesn't eve care. See H. Frankfort, 𝘖𝘯 𝘉𝘶𝘭𝘭𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘵 (2005).
Why do these people in Congress uniformly lack spines? Obviously they are not in it for those they represent. I get so angry that a tiny group of people should use their power to impose on the rest of us. That is not democracy.
Well done with providing us with in depth critical reporting. As ever, I admire your work.
I hope at some point voters are going to get so fed up with Trump and the Freedom Caucus that they will all be voted out. The MAGA base is shrinking—or not getting larger. I just hope we can make adequate claims—with proof—in the event of a Trump loss—that they are full of it. If 2/3 of the country refuse to fall in with their nonsense, governance will be a problem. But the MAGA politicians should see the writing on the wall and rearrange their views in accordance with their self interest. Save Our Souls.
"Obviously they are not in it for those they represent."
Ah, but they are. Their districts are just so gerrymandered that the only genuine challenge they face is in their primaries, so the people who vote in Republican primaries are the ones they represent.
But not all Republicans are satisfied with Trump and MAGA. They are getting fed up. I think Project 2025 will be too much for all but the most entrenched of Trump’s followers. I do hear you on the gerrymandering, and we all know what SCOTUS would do with a case about this. But there must be a way…
What a lot of people don't understand is that a lot of "objective" criteria for voting are actually subject to the whims of the registrar at the polling place on the day of election.
I learned this as a civil rights volunteer in Mississippi in 1964. If white "Joe" came in to vote and didn't know the meaning of "habeas corpus" (voters had to define any section of the Mississippi constitution chosen by the registrar) and the registrar knew Joe, then Joe voted. But if an African-American came to vote and didn't know, he failed the test and couldn't vote.
The same is true of proof of citizenship. If the registrar knows you/approves of you, the requirement is flexible. If you don't have your naturalization papers, you may be disfranchised.
Unless the standard for voting is clear and inflexible, eligible voters may be disqualified at local whim.
David, you are correct that the non-existence of a fact or entity is notoriously difficult to prove. In this case, however, we can also appeal to common sense. Put yourself in the shoes of an illegal immigrant. You've risked your life to escape horrific violence back home, or maybe just to help lift your family out of miserable poverty. Why on earth would you risk being caught, arrested and deported, simply to cast a single vote in a presidential election? That would be profoundly foolish, and whatever you think of these folks, they're not foolish. So while we can't prove that no illegal aliens vote, we can certainly say that it's highly, even laughably, implausible.
OK, as long as the "common sense" you are talking about is yours and mine, we can draw that out (although your illegal immigrant would not undergo all that solely to cast the vote that he can). Expecting Speaker J to have any sense at all, common or otherwise, is beyond my ability to imagine. Sorry, just occurred to me that is too broad since he clearly has a sense of self-aggrandizement.
How many millions of taxpayer dollars have been spent on “illegals voting” with absolutely zero proof obtained? Against the mountain of evidence that it’s not happening?
My mother in law lives to shriek about the shrimp-on-a-treadmill anecdote as proof that the federal government (which has supported her 100% for over a decade now) wastes way too much money and needs to be shut down except for defense, her Medicare benefits, and social security checks.
She’s supporting the “let’s execute people for being in the wrong category of persons” state candidates in NC, and I’m finding it really hard at this point to not rip her head off. Respect for my wife the only reason I haven’t.
Funny how that works, isn't it? I remember interviews with Trump supporters back in 2015 and there were a lot of "Stop wasting money on stuff" yelling, but when questioned, these folks didn't want any of the benefits THEY were on cut (medicare, medicaid, social security)....but they were absolutely confident that "someone" was getting stuff they didn't deserve.....
I live in Canada and have done so for 47 years....I have family in the US who are die hard Trumpers and one informs me regularly that "people in Canada are dying in the streets because of socialist medicine"......This is based entirely on ONE article he read and, apparently, defeats my 47 years of lived experience IN that "socialist Medicine" system.....Is it perfect? Nope. But I've never once (since moving to Canada) had to sit in my living room and figure out if I could pay the mortgage or get health care since I wouldn't be able to pay for both.
So, Mikey Johnson intuitively knows Illegal immigrants are voting. Fork your feelings, Mike. Show us the evidence. Your intuition doesn't stand up in court.
"undocumented immigrants are a largely faceless bogeyman without the legal recourse" nailed it. Speaker Johnson should come down to Harris county, the third largest and most diverse county in the country, to see just how strictly monitored (oppressed) our elections are. I guarantee every fear he has, whether real or imaginary, will be put to rest. Stated like Texas are going to rebel if Harris wins. I've never even bought a lottery ticket, but I'll bet my bottom dollar that Governor Hot Wheels is prepared to not certify the election results if the unthinkable should happen.
We’re more blue than people think. We’ve been brainwashed and oppressed for decades down here. The Dixiecrats are still in charge, they just changed their shirts. IF we can motivate Dem turnout in combination with RFK Jr scooping up 4-6% of Trump’s base. But voter suppression is alive and well, so is voter intimidation, and other tactics that deter, delay, or flat out deny votes. Texas is the most difficult state to both register in and vote in, because of places like Harris county. The Dixiecrats in the statehouse don’t want us voting.
Please support Texas candidates. Everyone counts us out, unfairly in my obviously biased opinion, but when we turn, the GOP nationally will be electorally destroyed.
For your sake, I hope your wishes and prayers come true, but I see too many "ifs" and barriers to voting that are entrenched by your own recounting for me to change my far from the scene expectation that "Governor Hot Wheels" will be only too happy to have OCF's electoral count enlarged.
I'm not predicting a change in Texas this time, but it feels like it is coming. Perhaps enough Texans will get frustrated with losing power on the current Governor's watch...
The RINOs of the New GOP thrive on ironic names for their groups. The House "Freedom" Caucus promotes anything except freedom; the Main Street Caucus is located a whole bunch of blocks off Main Street; America First if you wish to see the US become a third world hermit country where America won't be relevant outside our borders; Moms for Liberty, 'nuff said; or the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association (the CSPOA) which is only concerned with those parts of the Constitution *they* deem legal, as examples.
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"Furthermore, the Continuing Resolution should include the SAVE Act—as called for by President Trump—to prevent non-citizens from voting to preserve free and fair elections in light of the millions of illegal aliens imported by the Biden-Harris administration over the last four years."
First, as I keep pointing out, America has only one president at a time, and currently it is Pres Biden and not Pres Trump [sic]. Presidents no longer in office are referred to as "former President [fill in], or in TFG's case he's the disgraced and disgraceful ex President. It is only the Right wingnuts and RINO Legislators (they definitely know better but don't care, they must stroke the ego of their de facto "leader" if they wish to continue to survive in the New GOP) who call TFG "President."
Second, if all of the undocumented immigrants that the RINOs insist are invading our border -- they are only concerned with the Southern border, the Canadian border is immaterial to the hoards swamping our country -- then the American population would be composed of about 1% illegals. If one believes the numbers being bandied about by the Trump [sic] campaign then the population would be about 7% (they claim the number is close to 20 million).
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"Speaker Johnson himself claimed, without evidence, that “we all know, intuitively, that a lot of illegals are voting in federal elections. But it’s not been something that is easily provable.”"
That's because one can't prove something non-existent. And the only people who intuitively know illegals are voting in federal elections are the RINOs doing everything possible to make people question the voting process and purge the voting rolls of those they don't like.
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"Shortly before the August recess began, the House voted to condemn Vice President Kamala Harris for inaction on securing the border."
So what would the RINOs have her do? Granted, she wasn't real effective as the Border Czar, but she wasn't as ineffective as the RINOs insist. It is up to Congress to pass legislation that would allow a greater control of our borders, and we all know that the House asshats voted against a bill that gave them almost everything they demanded and little that the Dems wanted because TFG wanted to use immigration as a cudgel against Pres Biden.
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“We don't have that number [of undocumented immigrants voting in American elections]. This legislation will allow us to do exactly that.”
And in the end they will find that the number is approaching zero if there is any at all. In fact, if I recall correctly, there were more arrests of Repubs for fraudulent voting than of the undocumented in the 2020 election (including one idiot who filled in and cast a ballot for his father who passed after the ballots were mailed and before the election because that's what his father would have wanted).
For some reason I thought the government was funded through January and we were going to be spared another episode of “Shutdown Fever” this cycle.
Dems must be holding back their laughter, since this always ends oh so badly for the GOP. This year in particular I think Americans have had it with the drama ( see: Kamala the Joyful Warrior).
I think the fiscal year for the government ends on Sept 30. The 12 appropriations bills need to be approved before then, which they have not been for quite some time. So even if they get passed in March or May, or whenever, the money needs to be spent by the end of September and new bills approved.
What a mess they have made of the budget. And those who know indicate our defense spending is wholly unequal to what confronts us. I think the stats were that China had 370 warships compared to our 300, and Russia has vastly increased its spending on the military. True, they are using up a fair amount, but infrastructure, etc. will go well beyond Ukraine. They are low on morale, personnel, and a tax base that is willing to pay.
I saw that article too, but I don't know that that is a consensus view.
Also, in warships, raw numbers of them isn't the way to gauge power. I repeatedly hear that China doesn't have the ability to project its naval power in the way the US does. Currently, a conflict with China would occur around Taiwan. Now that gives China an advantage of being close to home, but since Taiwan is the objective, it makes them vulnerable to area denial. They're also vulnerable to commerce restriction. Through air and sea power, they can be blockaded. The blockade doesn't have to be close to their coast like in the old days of blockades. With satellites, cargo ships can be tracked all the way from China to wherever they go that China can't protect. And who is going to ship something to China if their ships are going to be forfeit from doing so?
Beyond that, allies. Japan has a formidable navy, and S. Korea and Australia add to US capabilities too. Then add in the Europeans that would assist. China doesn't have allies. Not really. NK might join them, causing a big headache, but who else? Iran? Russia? No one is going to go up against the US, NATO, and the Pacific Allies in a global conventional war. That is why it is so critical to maintain and expand our alliances, contra to the massive damage Trump wants to cause.
We're mostly okay today, but the next 50 years is a period where we're going to need our alliances in a way we haven't for the last 30 years. I'm not worried about today, and as long as Trump isn't elected, I'm not terribly worried about the future. Russia has done the west a huge favor by giving it a wake up call and shooting itself in the foot. As long as we don't do something stupid like proclaim, "America First!!!!" we shouldn't have too hard a time maintaining a favorable balance of power.
I'm not sure I understand this concept of having allies and friends to count on. :)
I'm glad that the DoD(?) is required to put out a national defense assessment on a regular basis. I would like to think that we have the right people in place to assess and direct policy and procurement to mitigate the risks. We definitely will not have that with Trump. And, yes, Russia did do all of us a big favor. With China improving its military posture and Iran with its proxies, plus all the other uglies, we need to keep on our toes.
Look at Ukraine and how fast they're burning through munitions. I'd rather see a focus on munitions supply capability over worrying about the number of naval vessels. Heck, we can barely crew the ones we do have.
Thank you for the thoughtful reply and info. I know a lot about Russia, but little about China’s military. I do know Russia had been relying on outdated equipment—that mean numbers were completely irrelevant. It will be clear in the Ukraine battles that superior U.S. and Western equipment will be far superior no matter how many weapons Russia uses except that Russia chooses to do terrible damage to non-military targets with the hardware it has. It must also be becoming clear inside Russia that the war is not going well. Putin may try to drum up popular hatred of Ukraine, but we’ll see how far that gets him.
We don't know that much about either county's military. However, right now we know a lot more about Russia than China because the now 2 1/2 year war in Ukraine has outed Russian weakness and demonstrated that we overestimated their military capabilities.
We don't have accurate information about China's military either, but complacency and underestimation are foolish. On the other hand, if China were foolish enough to attempt a military take-over of Taiwan, the West might learn what China's actual capabilities, strengths and weaknesses are.
It's not our spending, it's what we spend our defense dollars on. Look at the boondoggle that was the littoral combat ship, and the overruns for the Gerald Ford. I'm hesitant to advocate for more spending until procurement is under control.
I agree with the budget being messy. Too many competing priorities. The American people really need to better understand the push and pull of this process. One program that I heard about was where a group of people, of varying political and philosophical persuasions, were brought together to work through the federal budgeting process. It was apparently very eye-opening to them, in terms of what money goes where and why. It was not an easy process and not everyone got what they wanted.
The second link is 5 years out of date but should still be somewhat illustrative of the actual composition of each fleet beyond an overall number.
First note the tonnage mismatch overall and then note the aircraft carrier, nuclear submarine, cruiser, and destroyer mismatch. China's total ship edge is in smaller surface vessels for coastal defense not power projection. The two aircraft carriers they do have are a 70's or 80's model purchased from Russia that is clearly inferior to anything the US has (I'm pretty sure it is not nuclear powered and has no catapults which severely limits the size/armaments of the aircraft) and the other is much newer but is at best a proof of concept for both the technology in a Chinese warship and Chinese naval aviation itself.
I'm not saying it is something that can be fully ignored but it isn't like they are a threat to the US mainland any time soon. It mostly complicates defending Taiwan. And while I'd definitely like to defend Taiwan, especially in the near term, I am uncertain of the long term usefulness vs price and even the plausibility of maintaining vast military superiority over what could become a peer economic power in waters very close to their coastal territory.
Same. I mostly remembered seeing that factoid in a Bulwark article yesterday and wanting to comment on it. You provided a place to do so. I appreciate it.
"we all know, intuitively, that a lot of illegals are voting in federal elections. But it’s not been something that is easily provable"
I know intuitively that I am a dress size 8. But it's not something that's easily provable. So I'll just keep on wearing what the manufacturers call "size 20."
If the Freedom Caucus is looking for a scapegoat to blame if Trump loses, they should all pose, with Trump in the center, for a selfie in front of a large mirror. If their party loses in November, they are the reason. Obviously, their major problem is that they have a horrible candidate. I think, I hope, most people are tired of their bigotry, their unwillingness to solve problems, or to work with their colleagues to get the people’s work done. We all know that Republican Senator Lankford worked for months negotiating a strong border control bill with his Democratic colleagues. It gave Republicans virtually everything they asked for, and Biden was prepared to sign it. Then Trump told them to abandon it because he wanted illegal immigration to remain an issue he can run on and of course he is doing just that. Why Lankford has not spoken up more forcefully in outrage is beyond me. We know from several studies that there is no evidence that voting by illegal immigrants is a problem; it’s virtually non-existent. So, Mike Johnson has to “intuit” a problem because he has no evidence to prove it is one. The American people are fed up with threats of government shut downs every time Republicans don’t get their way. We all need to work hard to elect people who actually want to govern and solve problems instead of this constant grandstanding the Freedom Caucus resorts to because they have no policies to propose that voters actually want.
I've long thought that if they are going to put up something like this SAVE act, that there should be a requirement that all documention required to show proof of citizenship should be provided at no cost to the person registering, the fees entirely the responsibility the state. So for example, you're in TX registering but you were born in CA. TX will pay CA the fees for you to get a certified birth certificate. Or maybe you're a naturalized citizen. TX will then pay the fees to the federal government for those documents. The other option of course would be barring any state or federal agency from charging fees for documents necessary for registration.
We live in a country where roughly 50% of those eligible to vote choose not to. And yet we're supposed to believe that those braving enforcement at the border and then detention and deportation once here to make a living are going to risk exposure by voting illegally? How on earth does this make any sense and why doesn't anyone ever raise the implausibility of this scenario?
I guess that my question is, what would be required for proof of citizenship? It would have to be more than a drivers license, wouldn’t it?
It strikes me, and maybe I’m wrong, but if Republicans shut down the government right before the election, won’t that alienate a lot of moderates and independents? Members in very red districts would be safe, but what about everyone else? Could that be a last minute issue to rally voters to vote blue?
My understanding is that Social Security keeps track of citizenship status. If so, it would be easy enough for state election officials to verify citizenship status by accessing the Social Security database. That simple idea is not included in the SAVE Act. Wonder why.
You're right on question #1. It could be a birth certificate, naturalization certificate, or passport, and there's also such a thing as a certificate of citizenship. None of these are things you can get overnight. A birth certificate can take months. If I needed one, I couldn't get it before election day.
On question #2, your answer certainly seems logical to me!
There is no accounting for taste in this country. But one thing is clear, Trump prefers to steal than win. Let them shut down the government. Don’t pass any unnecessary laws about voting-when the laws we have worked when he attempted a steal last time.
Thank you for introducing me to the new meaning of "know intuitively". This is Mike Johnson's term for believing what you want to believe, regardless of factual information.
kinda like alternate facts?
It has a certain truthiness to it, he would say.
We call that “extra-legal”.
When Mike Johnson leaves Congress, perhaps there's a job waiting at California Psychics.
Exactly.
The precise term is 𝘣𝘶𝘭𝘭𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘵, something said without any concern for whether it is true. Ethically, it's worse than a lie. At least a liar knows what's true but is trying to conceal it. A bullshiter doesn't eve care. See H. Frankfort, 𝘖𝘯 𝘉𝘶𝘭𝘭𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘵 (2005).
And pretty sure motivated reasoning is involved
Why do these people in Congress uniformly lack spines? Obviously they are not in it for those they represent. I get so angry that a tiny group of people should use their power to impose on the rest of us. That is not democracy.
Well done with providing us with in depth critical reporting. As ever, I admire your work.
I hope at some point voters are going to get so fed up with Trump and the Freedom Caucus that they will all be voted out. The MAGA base is shrinking—or not getting larger. I just hope we can make adequate claims—with proof—in the event of a Trump loss—that they are full of it. If 2/3 of the country refuse to fall in with their nonsense, governance will be a problem. But the MAGA politicians should see the writing on the wall and rearrange their views in accordance with their self interest. Save Our Souls.
Why do they persist in still calling Chump "president ?" We currently have a president, a very fine one whose name is Joe Biden.
"Obviously they are not in it for those they represent."
Ah, but they are. Their districts are just so gerrymandered that the only genuine challenge they face is in their primaries, so the people who vote in Republican primaries are the ones they represent.
But not all Republicans are satisfied with Trump and MAGA. They are getting fed up. I think Project 2025 will be too much for all but the most entrenched of Trump’s followers. I do hear you on the gerrymandering, and we all know what SCOTUS would do with a case about this. But there must be a way…
be aware of the new and improved J6 crowd> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2uwOZhqGS0 and also the New Apostolic Reformation: https://icjs.org/charismatic-revival-fury/ these loom large in the background.
Speaker Johnson, "...llegals are voting in federal elections. But it’s not been something that is easily provable.”)
It's not just hard to prove; it's impossible to prove.
What a lot of people don't understand is that a lot of "objective" criteria for voting are actually subject to the whims of the registrar at the polling place on the day of election.
I learned this as a civil rights volunteer in Mississippi in 1964. If white "Joe" came in to vote and didn't know the meaning of "habeas corpus" (voters had to define any section of the Mississippi constitution chosen by the registrar) and the registrar knew Joe, then Joe voted. But if an African-American came to vote and didn't know, he failed the test and couldn't vote.
The same is true of proof of citizenship. If the registrar knows you/approves of you, the requirement is flexible. If you don't have your naturalization papers, you may be disfranchised.
Unless the standard for voting is clear and inflexible, eligible voters may be disqualified at local whim.
Johnson meant it's hard to prove illegals are voting.
The non-existence of a fact is just that, unprovable since there is nothing to prove.
David, you are correct that the non-existence of a fact or entity is notoriously difficult to prove. In this case, however, we can also appeal to common sense. Put yourself in the shoes of an illegal immigrant. You've risked your life to escape horrific violence back home, or maybe just to help lift your family out of miserable poverty. Why on earth would you risk being caught, arrested and deported, simply to cast a single vote in a presidential election? That would be profoundly foolish, and whatever you think of these folks, they're not foolish. So while we can't prove that no illegal aliens vote, we can certainly say that it's highly, even laughably, implausible.
OK, as long as the "common sense" you are talking about is yours and mine, we can draw that out (although your illegal immigrant would not undergo all that solely to cast the vote that he can). Expecting Speaker J to have any sense at all, common or otherwise, is beyond my ability to imagine. Sorry, just occurred to me that is too broad since he clearly has a sense of self-aggrandizement.
How many millions of taxpayer dollars have been spent on “illegals voting” with absolutely zero proof obtained? Against the mountain of evidence that it’s not happening?
My mother in law lives to shriek about the shrimp-on-a-treadmill anecdote as proof that the federal government (which has supported her 100% for over a decade now) wastes way too much money and needs to be shut down except for defense, her Medicare benefits, and social security checks.
She’s supporting the “let’s execute people for being in the wrong category of persons” state candidates in NC, and I’m finding it really hard at this point to not rip her head off. Respect for my wife the only reason I haven’t.
Funny how that works, isn't it? I remember interviews with Trump supporters back in 2015 and there were a lot of "Stop wasting money on stuff" yelling, but when questioned, these folks didn't want any of the benefits THEY were on cut (medicare, medicaid, social security)....but they were absolutely confident that "someone" was getting stuff they didn't deserve.....
I live in Canada and have done so for 47 years....I have family in the US who are die hard Trumpers and one informs me regularly that "people in Canada are dying in the streets because of socialist medicine"......This is based entirely on ONE article he read and, apparently, defeats my 47 years of lived experience IN that "socialist Medicine" system.....Is it perfect? Nope. But I've never once (since moving to Canada) had to sit in my living room and figure out if I could pay the mortgage or get health care since I wouldn't be able to pay for both.
Your self-restraint is admirable. 🥇
So, Mikey Johnson intuitively knows Illegal immigrants are voting. Fork your feelings, Mike. Show us the evidence. Your intuition doesn't stand up in court.
"undocumented immigrants are a largely faceless bogeyman without the legal recourse" nailed it. Speaker Johnson should come down to Harris county, the third largest and most diverse county in the country, to see just how strictly monitored (oppressed) our elections are. I guarantee every fear he has, whether real or imaginary, will be put to rest. Stated like Texas are going to rebel if Harris wins. I've never even bought a lottery ticket, but I'll bet my bottom dollar that Governor Hot Wheels is prepared to not certify the election results if the unthinkable should happen.
Well, since the chances that Blue would win anyway are rather unlikely, he would only be depriving the old convicted felon of a lot of electors, no?
We’re more blue than people think. We’ve been brainwashed and oppressed for decades down here. The Dixiecrats are still in charge, they just changed their shirts. IF we can motivate Dem turnout in combination with RFK Jr scooping up 4-6% of Trump’s base. But voter suppression is alive and well, so is voter intimidation, and other tactics that deter, delay, or flat out deny votes. Texas is the most difficult state to both register in and vote in, because of places like Harris county. The Dixiecrats in the statehouse don’t want us voting.
Please support Texas candidates. Everyone counts us out, unfairly in my obviously biased opinion, but when we turn, the GOP nationally will be electorally destroyed.
For your sake, I hope your wishes and prayers come true, but I see too many "ifs" and barriers to voting that are entrenched by your own recounting for me to change my far from the scene expectation that "Governor Hot Wheels" will be only too happy to have OCF's electoral count enlarged.
Once upon a time, Georgia was Red.
I'm not predicting a change in Texas this time, but it feels like it is coming. Perhaps enough Texans will get frustrated with losing power on the current Governor's watch...
Both kinds, I assume, electrical and political😏
"The House Freedom Caucus"
The RINOs of the New GOP thrive on ironic names for their groups. The House "Freedom" Caucus promotes anything except freedom; the Main Street Caucus is located a whole bunch of blocks off Main Street; America First if you wish to see the US become a third world hermit country where America won't be relevant outside our borders; Moms for Liberty, 'nuff said; or the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association (the CSPOA) which is only concerned with those parts of the Constitution *they* deem legal, as examples.
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"Furthermore, the Continuing Resolution should include the SAVE Act—as called for by President Trump—to prevent non-citizens from voting to preserve free and fair elections in light of the millions of illegal aliens imported by the Biden-Harris administration over the last four years."
First, as I keep pointing out, America has only one president at a time, and currently it is Pres Biden and not Pres Trump [sic]. Presidents no longer in office are referred to as "former President [fill in], or in TFG's case he's the disgraced and disgraceful ex President. It is only the Right wingnuts and RINO Legislators (they definitely know better but don't care, they must stroke the ego of their de facto "leader" if they wish to continue to survive in the New GOP) who call TFG "President."
Second, if all of the undocumented immigrants that the RINOs insist are invading our border -- they are only concerned with the Southern border, the Canadian border is immaterial to the hoards swamping our country -- then the American population would be composed of about 1% illegals. If one believes the numbers being bandied about by the Trump [sic] campaign then the population would be about 7% (they claim the number is close to 20 million).
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"Speaker Johnson himself claimed, without evidence, that “we all know, intuitively, that a lot of illegals are voting in federal elections. But it’s not been something that is easily provable.”"
That's because one can't prove something non-existent. And the only people who intuitively know illegals are voting in federal elections are the RINOs doing everything possible to make people question the voting process and purge the voting rolls of those they don't like.
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"Shortly before the August recess began, the House voted to condemn Vice President Kamala Harris for inaction on securing the border."
So what would the RINOs have her do? Granted, she wasn't real effective as the Border Czar, but she wasn't as ineffective as the RINOs insist. It is up to Congress to pass legislation that would allow a greater control of our borders, and we all know that the House asshats voted against a bill that gave them almost everything they demanded and little that the Dems wanted because TFG wanted to use immigration as a cudgel against Pres Biden.
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“We don't have that number [of undocumented immigrants voting in American elections]. This legislation will allow us to do exactly that.”
And in the end they will find that the number is approaching zero if there is any at all. In fact, if I recall correctly, there were more arrests of Repubs for fraudulent voting than of the undocumented in the 2020 election (including one idiot who filled in and cast a ballot for his father who passed after the ballots were mailed and before the election because that's what his father would have wanted).
fnord
For some reason I thought the government was funded through January and we were going to be spared another episode of “Shutdown Fever” this cycle.
Dems must be holding back their laughter, since this always ends oh so badly for the GOP. This year in particular I think Americans have had it with the drama ( see: Kamala the Joyful Warrior).
Yes! If anybody can call them out for this lunatic bullshit, it’s her.
I think the fiscal year for the government ends on Sept 30. The 12 appropriations bills need to be approved before then, which they have not been for quite some time. So even if they get passed in March or May, or whenever, the money needs to be spent by the end of September and new bills approved.
What a mess they have made of the budget. And those who know indicate our defense spending is wholly unequal to what confronts us. I think the stats were that China had 370 warships compared to our 300, and Russia has vastly increased its spending on the military. True, they are using up a fair amount, but infrastructure, etc. will go well beyond Ukraine. They are low on morale, personnel, and a tax base that is willing to pay.
I saw that article too, but I don't know that that is a consensus view.
Also, in warships, raw numbers of them isn't the way to gauge power. I repeatedly hear that China doesn't have the ability to project its naval power in the way the US does. Currently, a conflict with China would occur around Taiwan. Now that gives China an advantage of being close to home, but since Taiwan is the objective, it makes them vulnerable to area denial. They're also vulnerable to commerce restriction. Through air and sea power, they can be blockaded. The blockade doesn't have to be close to their coast like in the old days of blockades. With satellites, cargo ships can be tracked all the way from China to wherever they go that China can't protect. And who is going to ship something to China if their ships are going to be forfeit from doing so?
Beyond that, allies. Japan has a formidable navy, and S. Korea and Australia add to US capabilities too. Then add in the Europeans that would assist. China doesn't have allies. Not really. NK might join them, causing a big headache, but who else? Iran? Russia? No one is going to go up against the US, NATO, and the Pacific Allies in a global conventional war. That is why it is so critical to maintain and expand our alliances, contra to the massive damage Trump wants to cause.
We're mostly okay today, but the next 50 years is a period where we're going to need our alliances in a way we haven't for the last 30 years. I'm not worried about today, and as long as Trump isn't elected, I'm not terribly worried about the future. Russia has done the west a huge favor by giving it a wake up call and shooting itself in the foot. As long as we don't do something stupid like proclaim, "America First!!!!" we shouldn't have too hard a time maintaining a favorable balance of power.
I'm not sure I understand this concept of having allies and friends to count on. :)
I'm glad that the DoD(?) is required to put out a national defense assessment on a regular basis. I would like to think that we have the right people in place to assess and direct policy and procurement to mitigate the risks. We definitely will not have that with Trump. And, yes, Russia did do all of us a big favor. With China improving its military posture and Iran with its proxies, plus all the other uglies, we need to keep on our toes.
Look at Ukraine and how fast they're burning through munitions. I'd rather see a focus on munitions supply capability over worrying about the number of naval vessels. Heck, we can barely crew the ones we do have.
Thank you for the thoughtful reply and info. I know a lot about Russia, but little about China’s military. I do know Russia had been relying on outdated equipment—that mean numbers were completely irrelevant. It will be clear in the Ukraine battles that superior U.S. and Western equipment will be far superior no matter how many weapons Russia uses except that Russia chooses to do terrible damage to non-military targets with the hardware it has. It must also be becoming clear inside Russia that the war is not going well. Putin may try to drum up popular hatred of Ukraine, but we’ll see how far that gets him.
We don't know that much about either county's military. However, right now we know a lot more about Russia than China because the now 2 1/2 year war in Ukraine has outed Russian weakness and demonstrated that we overestimated their military capabilities.
We don't have accurate information about China's military either, but complacency and underestimation are foolish. On the other hand, if China were foolish enough to attempt a military take-over of Taiwan, the West might learn what China's actual capabilities, strengths and weaknesses are.
It's not our spending, it's what we spend our defense dollars on. Look at the boondoggle that was the littoral combat ship, and the overruns for the Gerald Ford. I'm hesitant to advocate for more spending until procurement is under control.
I agree with the budget being messy. Too many competing priorities. The American people really need to better understand the push and pull of this process. One program that I heard about was where a group of people, of varying political and philosophical persuasions, were brought together to work through the federal budgeting process. It was apparently very eye-opening to them, in terms of what money goes where and why. It was not an easy process and not everyone got what they wanted.
I'm no expert but that 370 vs 300 quote on warships seems extremely misleading.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/who-rules-the-waves-u-s-and-chinese-fleets-by-tonnage/
https://www.reddit.com/r/WarshipPorn/comments/mpdoq3/just_incase_anyone_wanted_a_comparison_in_naval/
The second link is 5 years out of date but should still be somewhat illustrative of the actual composition of each fleet beyond an overall number.
First note the tonnage mismatch overall and then note the aircraft carrier, nuclear submarine, cruiser, and destroyer mismatch. China's total ship edge is in smaller surface vessels for coastal defense not power projection. The two aircraft carriers they do have are a 70's or 80's model purchased from Russia that is clearly inferior to anything the US has (I'm pretty sure it is not nuclear powered and has no catapults which severely limits the size/armaments of the aircraft) and the other is much newer but is at best a proof of concept for both the technology in a Chinese warship and Chinese naval aviation itself.
I'm not saying it is something that can be fully ignored but it isn't like they are a threat to the US mainland any time soon. It mostly complicates defending Taiwan. And while I'd definitely like to defend Taiwan, especially in the near term, I am uncertain of the long term usefulness vs price and even the plausibility of maintaining vast military superiority over what could become a peer economic power in waters very close to their coastal territory.
I am more fearful of a continued westward march by Putin in the event Trump were to win.
Same. I mostly remembered seeing that factoid in a Bulwark article yesterday and wanting to comment on it. You provided a place to do so. I appreciate it.
A shutdown on the eve of the election would be glorious. Everyone will know that Freedom Caucus and the Speaker are to blame. Let's do this!
Great Quotes in History, Volume 12:
"The buck stops here." (Harry S Truman)
"we all know, intuitively, that a lot of illegals are voting in federal elections. But it’s not been something that is easily provable"
I know intuitively that I am a dress size 8. But it's not something that's easily provable. So I'll just keep on wearing what the manufacturers call "size 20."
If the Freedom Caucus is looking for a scapegoat to blame if Trump loses, they should all pose, with Trump in the center, for a selfie in front of a large mirror. If their party loses in November, they are the reason. Obviously, their major problem is that they have a horrible candidate. I think, I hope, most people are tired of their bigotry, their unwillingness to solve problems, or to work with their colleagues to get the people’s work done. We all know that Republican Senator Lankford worked for months negotiating a strong border control bill with his Democratic colleagues. It gave Republicans virtually everything they asked for, and Biden was prepared to sign it. Then Trump told them to abandon it because he wanted illegal immigration to remain an issue he can run on and of course he is doing just that. Why Lankford has not spoken up more forcefully in outrage is beyond me. We know from several studies that there is no evidence that voting by illegal immigrants is a problem; it’s virtually non-existent. So, Mike Johnson has to “intuit” a problem because he has no evidence to prove it is one. The American people are fed up with threats of government shut downs every time Republicans don’t get their way. We all need to work hard to elect people who actually want to govern and solve problems instead of this constant grandstanding the Freedom Caucus resorts to because they have no policies to propose that voters actually want.
I've long thought that if they are going to put up something like this SAVE act, that there should be a requirement that all documention required to show proof of citizenship should be provided at no cost to the person registering, the fees entirely the responsibility the state. So for example, you're in TX registering but you were born in CA. TX will pay CA the fees for you to get a certified birth certificate. Or maybe you're a naturalized citizen. TX will then pay the fees to the federal government for those documents. The other option of course would be barring any state or federal agency from charging fees for documents necessary for registration.
We live in a country where roughly 50% of those eligible to vote choose not to. And yet we're supposed to believe that those braving enforcement at the border and then detention and deportation once here to make a living are going to risk exposure by voting illegally? How on earth does this make any sense and why doesn't anyone ever raise the implausibility of this scenario?
I guess that my question is, what would be required for proof of citizenship? It would have to be more than a drivers license, wouldn’t it?
It strikes me, and maybe I’m wrong, but if Republicans shut down the government right before the election, won’t that alienate a lot of moderates and independents? Members in very red districts would be safe, but what about everyone else? Could that be a last minute issue to rally voters to vote blue?
My understanding is that Social Security keeps track of citizenship status. If so, it would be easy enough for state election officials to verify citizenship status by accessing the Social Security database. That simple idea is not included in the SAVE Act. Wonder why.
You're right on question #1. It could be a birth certificate, naturalization certificate, or passport, and there's also such a thing as a certificate of citizenship. None of these are things you can get overnight. A birth certificate can take months. If I needed one, I couldn't get it before election day.
On question #2, your answer certainly seems logical to me!
There is no accounting for taste in this country. But one thing is clear, Trump prefers to steal than win. Let them shut down the government. Don’t pass any unnecessary laws about voting-when the laws we have worked when he attempted a steal last time.