Excellent pieces, folks!!!All food for thought. Trump and his Fascists will do whatever it takes to win, no matter how unsavoury!! Perhaps the difference this time is Trump is a different candidate with much more baggage. He is a convicted felon. He has a judgement against him for sexual assault of a woman, He has a judgement against his company for fraud. He caused the reversal of Dobbs, he mishandled the CoVid response. He panders to Orban, an autocrat. He is neck deep in Project 2025. He is carrying much, much more baggage and last but not least he has JD Vance his VP candidate hanging like a millstone around his neck. He has his hardcore base, but how much room for voter growth is there. Perhaps Harris’ fast start is in part because he’s despised. Time will tell.
Just signed up for Saturday's Field Team 6 text bank at 11 a.m. PST to register Dems in Swing States. I did it last Saturday, too: it felt amazing. In two hours, we sent 210,000 texts, Congressman Maxwell Frost popped in to say hi! Let's expand that base, folks! Sign up! They're doing bunches of these events: https://www.fieldteam6.org/. They are not done via phone, they're done via computer. People join the Zoom link and they're guided through how to start an account with their texting software, then we all start texting together, they have people there to answer any questions people may have! In two hours I sent 1,200 text just myself!!! Highly recommend, let's flood the zone, people! It's really easy and it feels great.
Bill's Sosnik interview is very good. Highly recommend it for a sobering view of what stands between Harris and victory. Also great for things to watch for. Thanks, Bill, your podcast is always very good.
I mean… after the insurrection, the “traitors and patriots” formulation isn’t entirely wrong. Trump’s just hoping to blur the lines so that people don’t realize which one he is while he lauds convicted seditionists as hostages and promises to pardon many of them. 😅
Re the case for a male running mate for VP Harris - in all the years of our country, the ticket for all the parties has almost always been two white men. No one then said "gee, there should be diversity" or "don't we need to worry about a female/people of color backlash" or "should we balance the ticket?" So what if there are two women on the ticket?
But having said that - the majority of politicians out there are still men; so mostly likely she will pick a man. Maybe even a white cis-male heterosexual one, since they, again, are the majority.
But their gender should not be the first consideration.
This is politics. Many Americans are uncomfortable with a woman president. They would be even more uncomfortable with two women on the ticket. We have to do everything possible to appeal to voters, even semi-misogynous one who hate Trump more than they dislike women. Harris should pick the whitest of white men. That would be Beshear. A good choice in any case.
also to be clear - Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. Many people, even in 2016, were comfortable with a woman president. If not for the electoral college...
But hey, I trust VP Harris and her team to make a strong decision. Mostly I trust them.... Please not a klunker!
And that is the thing. It doesn't matter if a majority of Americans is okay with a woman or a black or a gay person or whatever as President. It doesn't matter what the majority thinks.
It matters what a few tens of thousands of voters in swing states think... and they are more likely to NOT be okay with those things than be okay with them, judging on past results.
I like Beshear; it will be hard to replace him in KY but he's good and he won in a red state. So I'm good with him if he is a good fit for VP Harris; his policies seem to be good! I admit I don't want Tim Walz for a stupid reason - he looks old. He's only 60, but looks older.
Does anyone know what kind of team KH has around her? based on what was written above, I would not trust the team she had when she was in the primaries as up to that task.
Frankly, I was not impressed with Biden's campaign team. Perhaps I'll give them the benefit of the doubt because they didn't have a candidate who could execute the gameplan. But the good thing is, when you're at the top of the ticket, you can have your pick of the best players in the game. I hear she's trying to recruit Plouffe..
They certainly made a mistake in challenging Trump to do the debate in June and in October. Perhaps they thought he would say no or perhaps they thought Biden would wipe the floor with him early in the campaign to position him better for the summer polling that would take place. Whichever it was it was a mistake. Hindsight is 20/20.
In retrospect, not a mistake. It was a crucible that showed, before it was too late, that Biden was not up to this election. I think they really *had* to take the shot, because drip drip drip re his age/infirmity was becoming death by a thousand cuts.
I don't think it's a mistake at all, at least from the 30K' view; I think everything's playing out perfectly. If the debate hadn't happened almost a month ago, Biden would still be the candidate.
On the other hand, when I read a couple of days ago that Harris is inheriting Biden's campaign team, it did give me pause. But she seems smart enough that she'll tweak it as necessary.
What a shame! We will miss her. We will miss her charm and civility. Maybe Laura Loomer can go instead. Her recent contribution on X:
"It’s time for Republicans to start talking about @KamalaHarris ’s sexual history and the reason why she likely doesn’t have any children of her own. I’m willing to bet she’s had so many abortions that she damaged her uterus. A woman who has no biological children of her own should not be allowed to make decisions in the White House for your children. Republicans need to run with this messaging and ask why a woman with no kids of her own and just a scarred up uterus is so obsessed with wanting to kill your babies. Kamala has zero investment in the future but she wants to determine our future."
She's right! It IS time for Republicans to talk about that!
Stoddard is taking a disgusting victory lap disguised as a tribute to Pelosi when Stoddard's efforts helped to irreparably damage Biden's campaign. Saletan is deliberately misreading the polls which according 538 showed no movement for the first ten days after the debate and therefore no fatal flaw in Biden's campaign. It took the relentless Dump Biden effort to move the polls, and then in an act of stunning circular reasoning, he cites the polls. As soon as Biden passed the torch to Harris, the polls immediately returned to where they were pre debate, only now it is Harris and Trump bouncing around within the margin of error. Both the victory lap and the post hoc justification would have been best left unsaid. The Biden campaign did NOT become untenable until ten days after the debate, certainly not by the following Monday. The Bulwark staff worked hard to make the Biden campaign as untenable as possible.
The debate was a perfect storm of age. persistent jet lag, a bad cold, cough medicine and Trump's gish gallop of lies combining to tax the high cognitive level Joe uses everyday to constantly compensate on the fly for his lifelong stutter. And now we know he may well have also been coming down with Covid at the time. Biden should have postponed the debate and taken the inevitable heat from the press, the right, and even his own so-called allies.
Right now the imperative is to set aside games and robustly support Harris. But no, we already see waffling, sometimes right her in the comments.
1. Asbolutely, no wavering! I'm all in on Harris. But like many at Bulwark readers, I'm a 'good enough' rather than "I will sulk and stay home if the perfect savior doesn't come along". 2) "It took the relentless Dump Biden effort to move the polls, and then in an act of stunning circular reasoning, he cites the polls. " I have serious doubts that the double-haters and other swing voters were actually paying attention to this. But they saw the debate and, if they were anything like me, had a visceral and 'sticky' reaction. Can't unsee it and no amount of reasoning gets past it. I'll take Pelosi's judgment over just about anyone's. She has a proven track record of getting as many practical results as possible, without letting emotion get in the way.
Polling was showing that Biden could lose New York. The issue was not his performance as president which was and is stellar. The issue was that it became clear in the debate and in subsequent appearances that age had caught up with him (as it does with us all). Asking people to re-elect a man who would be 86 at the end of his second term was untenable. It was also abundantly clear that President Biden could not make the case against Trump. With our democracy under lethal threat, a change had to be made. Biden is a great public servant and a patriot. He did the right thing, and in so doing has most likely saved our democracy a second time.
No one could honestly watch that debate and think everything was great. And then ... nothing. Joe Biden didn't do anything in the weeks following the debate to calm concerns.
Dropping out was the right call. And the last few days have shown us why. Harris has been superb.
2 dozen events, a fantastic NATO meetings, addresses to all kinds of groups, getting the endorsement of blacks, and the like. So, no, he didn't do anything!
No one was saying they watched the debate and concluded everything was great. They are saying they understood the mitigating factors, and the reasons why even so Biden remained the best chance for winning UNTIL his so-called allies took the opportunity to destroy that chance. And what did the polling do? Immediately reverted back to both candidates, only now Harris and Trump, bouncing around within the margin of error.
Dems need to define "Trump's America" now and until election days. 100 short, highly dramatic videos produced in Hollywood, playing off Project 2025. An infant pulled by ICE from the arms of a woman being deported; doctor telling a crying dad that his hands are tied, he's gonna lose both mom & baby because he can't abort; a wailing child standing over a dead dog, killed in a storm because there's no more NOAA forecasting. Etc etc. All end with the tag line: "This is Trump's America, don't take the risk."
Ms Kamala needs to do some defining of her own and republicans have provided plenty of ammunition. 2025 Project is front and center, but also around the edges are the speeches from republicans in congress like the guy who wants to force the country back to 1960. Rolling back rights of women and minorities. If we were normal, the economic numbers alone should have democrats winning in a landslide, but we are no longer normal. So just keep this simple, republicans are about the past, Democrats are about the future.
There were parts of the 60s that were pretty good. Unions strong, tax rates up to 70% or higher for the rich, incomes still pretty good, pensions from employers not 401(k)s that few people understand, the real beginnings of civil rights. No, they want the 1850s, not anything in the last century.
The 60's yes, but not 1960. Growing up in the 60's was amazing. With a young president in the WH and a country that could do anything. Young women who grew up in the 50's with mothers who told them what it was like to be treated as a human when they worked for the war effort refusing to be silent any longer and demanding to be treated human. I was 8 in 60 and 18 in 70 embarking to study engineering. In 1960 that would have been difficult indeed.
I hope folks are feeling energized now and are ready to act. When Biden was running, some people said “It’s hopeless, Trump will win.” And now they’re saying “Kamala is raising so much money, I don’t need to do anything.” Don’t be lazy and passive, as so many people are. The stakes are too high. I’ve looked at many groups/sites and these are what I think are most effective:
There's an organization, Focus4Democracy, a group of very smart people with decades of experience crafting effective campaign messages. They do a zoom every 2 weeks. The next one is Sunday, July 28 @ 8:00 pm EST. Register at bit.ly/F4D28July . Their Zooms are fascinating, they explain how they test and refine messages that generate more Democratic votes, particularly in battleground states. And they track the results. They need donations. But those who can't donate, you can forward Focus4Democracy's info to everyone you know.
Downballot races matter too. – State Congress, governors - and judges are sometimes elected. States are particularly important in protecting abortion rights and voter rights if Trump is re-elected. Visit app.oath.vote - they identify the most crucial races where your donations can make a difference. We can only vote where we live, but we can donate money nationwide - and we can also email our friends around the country.
Folks, if you don’t have time to get involved, pls. forward this message to 5 or 10 people you know. This country’s future hangs in the balance.
I just want to make a comment on Ilyse Hogue's article. I think she is probably right that Harris needs to select a white dude given what many already knew about the US and what Trump's 2016 win and enduring popularity should have made absolutely clear to all. Having said that I want everyone to note the identity politics being played here and not bitch and moan in a cycle or two when progressives play the same game but in reverse. Progressives are really just a mirror of the mainstream. They mostly do all the same things the mainstream does but flipped in a different direction. If something they do gets your goat then you should really analyze and work to eliminate that same thing in the mainstream. It will likely disappear from the Progressive's repertoire very quickly.
Excellent pieces, folks!!!All food for thought. Trump and his Fascists will do whatever it takes to win, no matter how unsavoury!! Perhaps the difference this time is Trump is a different candidate with much more baggage. He is a convicted felon. He has a judgement against him for sexual assault of a woman, He has a judgement against his company for fraud. He caused the reversal of Dobbs, he mishandled the CoVid response. He panders to Orban, an autocrat. He is neck deep in Project 2025. He is carrying much, much more baggage and last but not least he has JD Vance his VP candidate hanging like a millstone around his neck. He has his hardcore base, but how much room for voter growth is there. Perhaps Harris’ fast start is in part because he’s despised. Time will tell.
Just signed up for Saturday's Field Team 6 text bank at 11 a.m. PST to register Dems in Swing States. I did it last Saturday, too: it felt amazing. In two hours, we sent 210,000 texts, Congressman Maxwell Frost popped in to say hi! Let's expand that base, folks! Sign up! They're doing bunches of these events: https://www.fieldteam6.org/. They are not done via phone, they're done via computer. People join the Zoom link and they're guided through how to start an account with their texting software, then we all start texting together, they have people there to answer any questions people may have! In two hours I sent 1,200 text just myself!!! Highly recommend, let's flood the zone, people! It's really easy and it feels great.
"Why the Next Month Matters Most"
Was that a "pay the bills" essay? Pretty mundane.
Bill's Sosnik interview is very good. Highly recommend it for a sobering view of what stands between Harris and victory. Also great for things to watch for. Thanks, Bill, your podcast is always very good.
Apparently, Netanyahu wants the US to go to war with Iran. That, plus the nonsense that Israel is defending US, so trumpy, so wrong
I mean… after the insurrection, the “traitors and patriots” formulation isn’t entirely wrong. Trump’s just hoping to blur the lines so that people don’t realize which one he is while he lauds convicted seditionists as hostages and promises to pardon many of them. 😅
In the meme wars and the prank world of what could be a fun campaign, I say "go all in" and freak MAGA out. Put Michelle Obama as VP.
Trump will use the n word by Labor Day.
Re the case for a male running mate for VP Harris - in all the years of our country, the ticket for all the parties has almost always been two white men. No one then said "gee, there should be diversity" or "don't we need to worry about a female/people of color backlash" or "should we balance the ticket?" So what if there are two women on the ticket?
But having said that - the majority of politicians out there are still men; so mostly likely she will pick a man. Maybe even a white cis-male heterosexual one, since they, again, are the majority.
But their gender should not be the first consideration.
With the exception of Newsom, I would be happy with ANY of the prospects - that's a strong bench!
Newsome is from California as is Harris, so he won't be chosen due to electoral college voting rules.
An instance where the law and the anti-Trump interests align perfectly.
This is politics. Many Americans are uncomfortable with a woman president. They would be even more uncomfortable with two women on the ticket. We have to do everything possible to appeal to voters, even semi-misogynous one who hate Trump more than they dislike women. Harris should pick the whitest of white men. That would be Beshear. A good choice in any case.
'cept he can't bring Kentucky & we NEED Pa.
also to be clear - Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. Many people, even in 2016, were comfortable with a woman president. If not for the electoral college...
But hey, I trust VP Harris and her team to make a strong decision. Mostly I trust them.... Please not a klunker!
And that is the thing. It doesn't matter if a majority of Americans is okay with a woman or a black or a gay person or whatever as President. It doesn't matter what the majority thinks.
It matters what a few tens of thousands of voters in swing states think... and they are more likely to NOT be okay with those things than be okay with them, judging on past results.
I like Beshear; it will be hard to replace him in KY but he's good and he won in a red state. So I'm good with him if he is a good fit for VP Harris; his policies seem to be good! I admit I don't want Tim Walz for a stupid reason - he looks old. He's only 60, but looks older.
Looks matter! Especially this time, because I hope the Democrats keep saying that Trump is a doddering old man.
Does anyone know what kind of team KH has around her? based on what was written above, I would not trust the team she had when she was in the primaries as up to that task.
I know and have worked with her chief of staff, Lorraine Voles. You could not find a better, more steady or more savvy person than Lorraine.
Plouffe is now on board.
Yes! And if this is any indication as to the caliber of the team she's putting together, I'd say things are looking good. On this count, as well. 🦋
from her call with staff the other day, sounds like she's inheriting Biden's team.
She should also have Sarah Longwell, Rick Wilson and others who have the Republican savvy to make sure they are 'coding' correctly.
Frankly, I was not impressed with Biden's campaign team. Perhaps I'll give them the benefit of the doubt because they didn't have a candidate who could execute the gameplan. But the good thing is, when you're at the top of the ticket, you can have your pick of the best players in the game. I hear she's trying to recruit Plouffe..
They certainly made a mistake in challenging Trump to do the debate in June and in October. Perhaps they thought he would say no or perhaps they thought Biden would wipe the floor with him early in the campaign to position him better for the summer polling that would take place. Whichever it was it was a mistake. Hindsight is 20/20.
In retrospect, not a mistake. It was a crucible that showed, before it was too late, that Biden was not up to this election. I think they really *had* to take the shot, because drip drip drip re his age/infirmity was becoming death by a thousand cuts.
I don't think it's a mistake at all, at least from the 30K' view; I think everything's playing out perfectly. If the debate hadn't happened almost a month ago, Biden would still be the candidate.
On the other hand, when I read a couple of days ago that Harris is inheriting Biden's campaign team, it did give me pause. But she seems smart enough that she'll tweak it as necessary.
I'm glad that debate happened in June rather than September.
Right, maybe was a huge blessing? We'll know soon, come November.
just read that Candace Owens is not going to the fundraiser after all due to her problems and the outcry against her.
What a shame! We will miss her. We will miss her charm and civility. Maybe Laura Loomer can go instead. Her recent contribution on X:
"It’s time for Republicans to start talking about @KamalaHarris ’s sexual history and the reason why she likely doesn’t have any children of her own. I’m willing to bet she’s had so many abortions that she damaged her uterus. A woman who has no biological children of her own should not be allowed to make decisions in the White House for your children. Republicans need to run with this messaging and ask why a woman with no kids of her own and just a scarred up uterus is so obsessed with wanting to kill your babies. Kamala has zero investment in the future but she wants to determine our future."
She's right! It IS time for Republicans to talk about that!
Just when you think they can’t go any lower! Just wow.
excellent replacement for Owens!
Stoddard is taking a disgusting victory lap disguised as a tribute to Pelosi when Stoddard's efforts helped to irreparably damage Biden's campaign. Saletan is deliberately misreading the polls which according 538 showed no movement for the first ten days after the debate and therefore no fatal flaw in Biden's campaign. It took the relentless Dump Biden effort to move the polls, and then in an act of stunning circular reasoning, he cites the polls. As soon as Biden passed the torch to Harris, the polls immediately returned to where they were pre debate, only now it is Harris and Trump bouncing around within the margin of error. Both the victory lap and the post hoc justification would have been best left unsaid. The Biden campaign did NOT become untenable until ten days after the debate, certainly not by the following Monday. The Bulwark staff worked hard to make the Biden campaign as untenable as possible.
The debate was a perfect storm of age. persistent jet lag, a bad cold, cough medicine and Trump's gish gallop of lies combining to tax the high cognitive level Joe uses everyday to constantly compensate on the fly for his lifelong stutter. And now we know he may well have also been coming down with Covid at the time. Biden should have postponed the debate and taken the inevitable heat from the press, the right, and even his own so-called allies.
Right now the imperative is to set aside games and robustly support Harris. But no, we already see waffling, sometimes right her in the comments.
1. Asbolutely, no wavering! I'm all in on Harris. But like many at Bulwark readers, I'm a 'good enough' rather than "I will sulk and stay home if the perfect savior doesn't come along". 2) "It took the relentless Dump Biden effort to move the polls, and then in an act of stunning circular reasoning, he cites the polls. " I have serious doubts that the double-haters and other swing voters were actually paying attention to this. But they saw the debate and, if they were anything like me, had a visceral and 'sticky' reaction. Can't unsee it and no amount of reasoning gets past it. I'll take Pelosi's judgment over just about anyone's. She has a proven track record of getting as many practical results as possible, without letting emotion get in the way.
Polling was showing that Biden could lose New York. The issue was not his performance as president which was and is stellar. The issue was that it became clear in the debate and in subsequent appearances that age had caught up with him (as it does with us all). Asking people to re-elect a man who would be 86 at the end of his second term was untenable. It was also abundantly clear that President Biden could not make the case against Trump. With our democracy under lethal threat, a change had to be made. Biden is a great public servant and a patriot. He did the right thing, and in so doing has most likely saved our democracy a second time.
No one could honestly watch that debate and think everything was great. And then ... nothing. Joe Biden didn't do anything in the weeks following the debate to calm concerns.
Dropping out was the right call. And the last few days have shown us why. Harris has been superb.
2 dozen events, a fantastic NATO meetings, addresses to all kinds of groups, getting the endorsement of blacks, and the like. So, no, he didn't do anything!
No one was saying they watched the debate and concluded everything was great. They are saying they understood the mitigating factors, and the reasons why even so Biden remained the best chance for winning UNTIL his so-called allies took the opportunity to destroy that chance. And what did the polling do? Immediately reverted back to both candidates, only now Harris and Trump, bouncing around within the margin of error.
Absolutely. We all now need to support VP Harris . No waffling.
Dems need to define "Trump's America" now and until election days. 100 short, highly dramatic videos produced in Hollywood, playing off Project 2025. An infant pulled by ICE from the arms of a woman being deported; doctor telling a crying dad that his hands are tied, he's gonna lose both mom & baby because he can't abort; a wailing child standing over a dead dog, killed in a storm because there's no more NOAA forecasting. Etc etc. All end with the tag line: "This is Trump's America, don't take the risk."
I hate to say it, but we need to bring out the 'bloody shirts'.
I would also have a doc consulting with a frail elderly person , and their kids -- and saying, I
Ms Kamala needs to do some defining of her own and republicans have provided plenty of ammunition. 2025 Project is front and center, but also around the edges are the speeches from republicans in congress like the guy who wants to force the country back to 1960. Rolling back rights of women and minorities. If we were normal, the economic numbers alone should have democrats winning in a landslide, but we are no longer normal. So just keep this simple, republicans are about the past, Democrats are about the future.
There were parts of the 60s that were pretty good. Unions strong, tax rates up to 70% or higher for the rich, incomes still pretty good, pensions from employers not 401(k)s that few people understand, the real beginnings of civil rights. No, they want the 1850s, not anything in the last century.
The 60's yes, but not 1960. Growing up in the 60's was amazing. With a young president in the WH and a country that could do anything. Young women who grew up in the 50's with mothers who told them what it was like to be treated as a human when they worked for the war effort refusing to be silent any longer and demanding to be treated human. I was 8 in 60 and 18 in 70 embarking to study engineering. In 1960 that would have been difficult indeed.
Like Jonathan V. Last said, "The Future is Now."
I hope folks are feeling energized now and are ready to act. When Biden was running, some people said “It’s hopeless, Trump will win.” And now they’re saying “Kamala is raising so much money, I don’t need to do anything.” Don’t be lazy and passive, as so many people are. The stakes are too high. I’ve looked at many groups/sites and these are what I think are most effective:
There's an organization, Focus4Democracy, a group of very smart people with decades of experience crafting effective campaign messages. They do a zoom every 2 weeks. The next one is Sunday, July 28 @ 8:00 pm EST. Register at bit.ly/F4D28July . Their Zooms are fascinating, they explain how they test and refine messages that generate more Democratic votes, particularly in battleground states. And they track the results. They need donations. But those who can't donate, you can forward Focus4Democracy's info to everyone you know.
Downballot races matter too. – State Congress, governors - and judges are sometimes elected. States are particularly important in protecting abortion rights and voter rights if Trump is re-elected. Visit app.oath.vote - they identify the most crucial races where your donations can make a difference. We can only vote where we live, but we can donate money nationwide - and we can also email our friends around the country.
Folks, if you don’t have time to get involved, pls. forward this message to 5 or 10 people you know. This country’s future hangs in the balance.
I just want to make a comment on Ilyse Hogue's article. I think she is probably right that Harris needs to select a white dude given what many already knew about the US and what Trump's 2016 win and enduring popularity should have made absolutely clear to all. Having said that I want everyone to note the identity politics being played here and not bitch and moan in a cycle or two when progressives play the same game but in reverse. Progressives are really just a mirror of the mainstream. They mostly do all the same things the mainstream does but flipped in a different direction. If something they do gets your goat then you should really analyze and work to eliminate that same thing in the mainstream. It will likely disappear from the Progressive's repertoire very quickly.
So Bill, could we call you a Coconut Conservative? 😁