Just How Authoritarian Are Americans?
Just How Authoritarian Are Americans?
Surveys show that Trump’s supporters don’t just tolerate his autocratic tendencies. They positively like them.
DONALD TRUMP SENT A MOB to overturn the 2020 election. He called for the termination of all constitutional provisions that prevented his immediate reinstatement. He made it clear that if he regained the presidency, he would extend his abuse of the office.
Kamala Harris warned voters repeatedly that Trump would try to rule (as he half-jokingly affirmed) like a dictator. But they re-elected him anyway.
This raises serious questions about our country. Did Trump’s voters back him because of his authoritarian inclinations or in spite of them? To what extent has the United States become hospitable to one-man rule? How many Americans condone or outright prefer an autocratic style of leadership? And how much of Trump’s majority coalition will support him as he expands and abuses his power?
To answer these questions, I’ve looked at the VoteCast survey conducted by the Associated Press and the traditional exit polls, as well as surveys conducted in the months after Harris replaced Joe Biden atop the Democratic ticket. In some polls, respondents were asked about democracy vs. autocracy in general terms. In others, they were asked about specific scenarios.
The numbers paint a sobering portrait of the world’s oldest democracy. Most Americans don’t want explicit autocracy. But many Trump supporters are open to it, and most of his voters will support or tolerate authoritarian policies and acts.
Dictatorship.
In a September poll of likely voters by the McCourtney Institute for Democracy, 64 percent of Harris voters strongly agreed that “Democracy may have problems, but it is the best system of government.” Only 48 percent of Trump voters strongly agreed. Fifteen percent of Trump voters, compared to fewer than three percent of Harris voters, disagreed.
The poll also asked respondents to choose among three options: (a) “Democracy is the best political system in all circumstances,” (b) “In certain circumstances a dictatorship could be a good thing,” or (c) “Whether we live in a democracy or under a dictatorship makes no difference to people like me.” Nine percent of Trump voters chose “dictatorship could be a good thing.” Another 6 percent chose “no difference.”
When analysts combined the two questions, they found that 32 percent of Trump’s voters either (1) didn’t agree that democracy was the best system, (2) said dictatorship could be good, or (3) said it made no difference which system they lived under. The proportion of Trump voters who expressed weak or no support for democracy was double the proportion of Harris voters who did so (16 percent).
Strongman government.
In October, a CBS/YouGov survey asked which of three approaches would be “best for solving America’s problems”: (a) “Have both parties try to cooperate and negotiate on things,” (b) “Have your favored party run the government for a while,” or (c) “Have one strong leader who does what they think best, regardless of the parties.” Thirty-six percent of Republicans and 34 percent of Trump voters (but only 16 percent of Harris voters) chose the “one strong leader” option. Only 40 percent of Republicans and 43 percent of Trump voters (versus 64 percent of Harris voters) chose cooperation.
These findings, like those from the McCourtney survey, suggest that perhaps a third of Trump’s coalition has authoritarian inclinations.
Breaking rules.
In October, a New York Times/Siena College poll asked likely voters whether presidents should (a) “do what they think is best, even if that might go outside of existing rules” or (b) “follow existing rules, even if that prevents them from doing what they think is best.” Thirty-one percent of Trump voters, compared to 12 percent of Harris voters, said presidents should “go outside of existing rules.” Again, that’s about one in three.
Suspending the Constitution.
In October, a Monmouth University poll asked: “If Donald Trump did suspend some laws and constitutional provisions if he is elected president, would that bother you a lot, bother you a little, or not bother you at all?” Nearly 60 percent of registered voters said it would bother them a lot. But 40 percent of Republicans and 32 percent of Trump voters said it wouldn’t bother them at all. Only 25 percent of Republicans and 28 percent of Trump voters said it would bother them a lot.
This finding illuminates a second tier of voters who might go along with authoritarianism. In addition to the third of Trump’s supporters who affirmatively want a rule-breaking strongman, another third or more indicate that they won’t complain much if he openly violates laws and the Constitution.
Presidential immunity.
One of Trump’s first authoritarian acts in a second term will be to terminate all prosecutions of himself. On this, his coalition stands squarely behind him.
In October, a USA Today/Suffolk University poll asked: “If Donald Trump wins the presidency, there is widespread expectation in the legal and political communities that he will get the Justice Department to dismiss the pending criminal cases brought against him charging him with trying to overturn the 2020 election and with mishandling sensitive documents. Do you think this is the right thing or the wrong thing for him to do?”
Fifty-eight percent of likely voters said it would be wrong, but only 19 percent of Trump voters agreed. More than 60 percent of Trump voters said he would be right to terminate the cases.
In October, an AtlasIntel survey asked about “immunity from criminal prosecution for Donald Trump.” That’s a broader description of Trump’s immunity than what the Supreme Court has authorized, but only 52 percent of likely voters opposed it. Forty percent favored such immunity for Trump, which probably means that his voters overwhelmingly support it (though that breakdown wasn’t published).
Crimes.
One reason why Trump can probably get away with terminating his prosecutions—and escaping punishment for the crimes of which he has been convicted—is that half of the electorate doesn’t care about his crimes.
In October, a CNN poll asked whether Trump’s “criminal conviction and the criminal charges against him” were a reason to vote for or against him, or whether they made no difference. Only 51 percent of voters said they were a reason to vote against him. Nearly 70 percent of Trump voters said they made no difference, and a quarter of Trump voters said they were a reason to vote for him.
This indifference goes beyond Trump’s fraud convictions. It extends to sexual assault. In October, an Economist/YouGov survey asked Americans how their votes would be affected “if the allegations that Donald Trump sexually assaulted women are true.” Only 43 percent of likely voters said this record of assault, if true, “disqualifies him from the presidency.” Nearly 30 percent, including most Trump voters, said it wasn’t even “relevant to this election.”
Political prosecutions.
Trump has signaled that he will do what Biden didn’t do: He will push the Justice Department to investigate and prosecute his enemies. And his coalition seems prepared to back him.
In August, a survey by the Pew Research Center asked voters whether it was acceptable for Trump to “order federal law enforcement officials to investigate Democratic political opponents.” Two-thirds said it wasn’t, but 54 percent of Trump voters said it was.
The October CNN poll asked whether Trump’s “pledge to go after his enemies if elected president” was a reason to vote for or against him, or whether it made no difference. Nearly half of Trump’s voters, 48 percent, said it was a reason to vote for him. Forty-one percent said it made no difference; only 10 percent said it was a reason to vote against him.
Bypassing Congress.
Again, Trump’s coalition stands behind him. In the Pew survey, 58 percent of Trump voters said it was acceptable for him to “use executive orders to make policies when he can’t get his priorities through Congress.” (On this question, Harris voters weren’t much better: 55 percent of them said the same about her.)
Purging non-loyalists.
Trump wants to oust civil servants and replace them with people who will do as he says. Politically, this is more challenging. In the Pew survey, 58 percent of Trump voters said it was unacceptable for him to “fire any federal government workers at any level who are not personally loyal to him.” But fewer than half of the 58 percent said it was “definitely” unacceptable, and 41 percent of his voters said it was acceptable. That might be enough to sustain a purge, especially once Trump makes the case for it.
Pardons.
Trump issued corrupt pardons in his first term, and many of his supporters seem ready for more. In the Pew survey, 57 percent of Trump voters said it would be unacceptable for him to “pardon friends, family or political supporters who have been convicted of a crime,” but fewer than half of these objectors said it was definitely unacceptable. Forty-two percent of Trump’s voters said it was acceptable.
On each of these questions, Pew found that Trump’s voters were far more open to abuses of power than Harris’s voters were. Only 8 percent of Harris’s voters, for instance, said it would be acceptable for her to pardon friends, family, or supporters who had been convicted of crimes. Only 12 percent said it would be acceptable to fire government workers who weren’t personally loyal to her. The lopsided responses between the parties might reflect the extent to which Trump has ‘softened up’ Republicans to expect these actions from him.
Political violence.
Several surveys, including one taken in October by the University of Massachusetts Amherst, indicate that when Trump voters are asked explicitly about “violence,” most of them don’t endorse it. But there’s a catch: When Trump provokes or exploits violence, his supporters often find ways to justify it.
In September, an AtlasIntel poll asked likely voters, “Was the January 6th, 2021 invasion of the U.S. Capitol justified or unjustified?” Most respondents (64 percent) said it was unjustified, but the partisan difference was extreme: While 98 percent of Harris voters said it was unjustified, more Trump voters said it was justified (32 percent) than unjustified (25 percent).
When respondents were asked whether Trump should “be disqualified from running for office due to the January 6th invasion of the Capitol,” a slight majority (51 percent) of likely voters said no.
Trump’s voters also support the perpetrators of the January 6th attack. In an August PRRI poll, 46 percent of Republicans, including a narrow majority of Republicans who viewed Trump favorably, agreed that “The people convicted for their role in the violent Jan. 6 attacks on the U.S. Capitol are really patriots who are being held hostage by the government.”
Obedience.
Many of Trump’s voters revere him as the sole authority on questions of fact. This reverence gives him the power to turn his followers against any institution he chooses to target.
In an October Navigator poll, 44 percent of Republican voters said they trusted Trump completely to “tell the truth about election results and the legitimacy of elections.” Only 17 percent to 20 percent said they similarly trusted local or state election officials. Only 7 percent said they had such trust in “national news networks like NBC, ABC, and CBS,” while 60 percent said they trusted the networks not much or not at all.
Saving democracy.
Most Trump voters say they care about preserving democracy. But because they trust Trump more than they trust election officials and the media, they stand with him as he attacks—in the name of democracy—America’s system of free elections.
In the Times/Siena poll, only 8 percent of Trump’s voters said his conduct after the 2020 election “went so far that he threatened American democracy.” The overwhelming majority, 89 percent, insisted that “he was just exercising his right to contest the election.”
In an October Yahoo/YouGov survey, 57 percent of Trump voters agreed that “the only way Donald Trump is going to lose in November is if the election is rigged.” And in an October Fox News poll, 52 percent of Trump voters said that if he lost, they would not accept that Harris “won fair and square and will be the legitimate leader of the country.”
This is the most plausible path to autocracy in America: A demagogue stays in power not by spurning democracy, but by convincing his followers that he represents it.
Nativism.
Among the major items on Trump’s agenda, the one that’s most familiar in authoritarian history is mass deportation. Here, the polls are ominous. Trump’s voters believe that immigration makes America worse. And for most of them, the anxiety isn’t just about crossing the border illegally. It’s about culture and race.
The August PRRI survey asked Americans to respond to two statements about immigration as an ethnic threat. One statement said, “Immigrants are invading our country and replacing our cultural and ethnic background.” The other said, “The immigrants entering the country illegally today are poisoning the blood of our country.” More than a third of respondents, including more than 60 percent of Republicans, agreed with each statement.
In September, an NPR/PBS/Marist poll asked voters to choose between two statements. One said, “America’s openness to people from all over the world is essential to who we are as a nation.” The other said, “If America is too open to people from all over the world, we risk losing our identity as a nation.” Most voters chose the first statement, 57 to 41 percent. But Trump supporters slanted hard in the other direction, preferring the second statement by 71 to 28 percent.
TOGETHER, THESE SURVEYS suggest that most Americans still believe in the ideas of democracy, constitutional government, and nonviolence. But too many are willing to tolerate or only meekly oppose specific authoritarian acts that Trump has threatened or pledged to commit. And much of his majority coalition will rally behind him.
Trump will be our president again because the voters of this country failed to draw a firm line in defense of republican government and the rule of law. And as he consolidates power, backed by a servile party and a docile Supreme Court, there’s little sign that the public will stand in his way.