How Long Until Kamala Is the Frontrunner?
How Long Until Kamala Is the Frontrunner?
The Republican Electoral College advantage looms large.
Before we start: The VP pick is coming. I did a YouTube about it yesterday, in case you’re curious. Bottom line: Don’t overthink it. If LeBron James is available and you hold the #1 pick, you take Lebron. You don’t force yourself to conjure reasons why Carmelo Anthony or Dwyane Wade might be better.
1. Favorite
The polling is unambiguous. Kamala Harris has opened up a can o’ whupass.
Let’s blast through the polling averages.
RealClear:
270toWin:
Decision Desk:
Nate Silver:
Harris is on the move.
There is every reason to expect that her upward trajectory will continue over the next several weeks. Why?
Polls are lagging indicators, so the real state of the race at this moment is almost certainly slightly better for Harris.
She will name a running mate in the coming days and this guy will be a popular governor. She’ll get a bounce from that.
The Democratic convention starts on August 19 and will generate tremendous interest and attention as the excitement around her campaign builds.
Meaning: Between now and August 23, Kamala Harris has room to explore her upside.
Donald Trump will only have 73 days to reverse her momentum and make up lost ground.
Here is the question: At what point will Harris be considered the favorite in this election?
2. The College
It’ll take longer than you think. In fact, we might never get there. Because the Republican advantage in the Electoral College remains significant.