Thank you President Biden. You came through for us when we needed it the most. I’m proud to have defended your decency and honor. It’s your wisdom that has saved our great experiment.
Sorry but I disagree on replacing Biden. I think there are many voters - as opposed to pundits - that don't care about his debate and aren't even engaged yet. Plus I haven't heard a peep from any R's saying they've seen Biden showing feebleness in WH meetings and wouldn't they be shouting that? If he gets pushed out then I think Harris would actually do well - and I am not a huge fan - but experience and demographics point to her success. PS It pains me to miss a pod with you and Sarah but I just can't listen to any more anti Biden stuff. In fact I canceled my NYT and WaPo subs today...
The only agenda for the party is that they need someone, anyone, with the best chance to defeat Trump, Biden can't. So ... Purely as a candidate, Harris is not the one with the best chance, however, the logistics advantage may mean that she has the best chance. But, I think she may also be the potential candidate that also has the highest chance to lose as well as a candidate. On the surface, it may appear that I have just contradicted myself. Nevertheless, while I think she has much better odds than Biden, but as a candidate, she is is also capable of losing so it is a gamble. If the swing state Governors can figure out how to mitigate the logistics issues, then are sure bets. The party needs to do something that is not their DNA, namely, act with discipline, pragmatism, quickly and align to the candidate. The only with the qualities to pull the party together to get a new nominee is Nancy Pelosi, certainly Schumer can't do it. Nancy, please pull together 'smoke-filled backroom' process to get this done well in advance of the convention. Step up to the challenge and save our country.
Biden can step aside with dignity, cementing his legacy has a great president and a noble political leader who has devoted his life for the people of America. He can tell the nation that in 2020 he saw the grave threat of a second Trump term and decided then that as a candidate he had the best, and perhaps only, chance to defeat Trump. This led him to enter the race. For 2024, the threat posed by a second term for Trump is even graver. Applying his reasoning from 2020, he has determined that while he is confident that he can have a very successful second term, he is not the candidate with the best chance to defeat Trump. Therefore, he is stepping aside and releasing his delegates. He can then add, that rather than name his choice to replace him as the nominee, he will leave that for the party to decide. Waiting for an open convention may be too late, and too damaging to the party's nominee. He can suggest that the party should decide on an alternate process. He will make his recommendation on who the nominee should be to the participants of the process. Because of the threat that Trump poses to our country as we know it. the agenda for the party for 2024 must be to defeat Trump.
I should add that I read the post debate polls as the voters who will decide the election pleading with us to give them a candidate that they can vote for. If the democratic party to can't get their act together in order to do this, they will have let the country down. Years from now when the students of the then world's leader superpower (i.e, Chinese students) will read it about this their history books about the decline and fall of the United States.
The Supreme Court has essentially abandoned our democracy. They are plainly saying that if (when) Trump is elected, they will not stand in his way of establishing an authoritarian government. And John Robert's is basically giving the American people a finger and saying whatcha gonna do about it?!
My answer is that it is imperative that we hold the Senate and elect a Democrat president.
Big Gretsch turned down Uncle Joe’s request as VP so that Kamala could be the first black woman president all in one go. Maybe not her sharpe’s decision…but a Harris-Whitmer ticket would be “replacement-level” at the top of the ticket, and EPIC at the VP level; would allow a straightforward transfer of that $91 million; and would be the smoothest route out of this shihole of a campaign we find ourselves in.
Everybody should read Ben Hunt’s “common knowledge” post about how bad this situation is.
I begin with the assumption Biden will be on the November ballot unless he voluntarily steps aside. My second assumption is that if he withdraws Harris must replace him as the Presidential candidate. Otherwise a good many African American voters will have cause to question whether Democrats really believe "what we preach" and decide to simply not vote. That would likely guarantee Trump victory in the swing states and thus the election. SO: As a condition of withdrawing if he decides to withdraw, Biden should insist that Harris replace him at the top of the ticket and that the party -- especially those who might have their own Presidential ambitions--genuinely rally around ,and campaign for, her. That is NOT too much for Biden to ask of those who think his exit necessary because Trump poses an existential threat to the republic. I would add that by using his leverage as suggested here, Biden could prevent the party splintering as multiple candidates compete over the next few weeks for the nomination, consuming dollars that will be better spent to beat Trump while also "bloodying"--to Trump's benefit--whichever candidate eventually prevails. And Harris et al ought be thinking who should be on the ticket with her and how to be ready to conduct a winning sprint to election day in November.
Making Harris the first female president ever could give her a big boost with women voters reluctant to let the first female in the oval office go away.
here is my .02 cents for the taking. Kamala Harris is a bad politician who most people think slept her way to the top. The campaign will get bogged down trying to change a perception. which is why we have the biden bike wreck and such. Accept that the perseption holds water acknowledge it. and move on. One of the Ways trumps gets away with things is he sees all publicity as positive. Trump is like Boxing promoter Don King , just without the brains. You are having issues because where is the phone evidence he offered so many troops to the capital but we do have his call to Zelensky in Ukraine. So, it can be spun like a witch hunt. Sarah Longwell pointed this out in her last focus group Podcast on the hunter verdict. Good example of a failure she went to latin america first and was criticized for that even though any management person would tell you go to source. If we are dealing with it at the border it is too late. Her, response when returning and not stoping at the border was even worse becuase most people are not policy wonks( I happen to be) she was paraphrasing how the swiss government was putting pressure of their major employers to pay those people to stay where they are at by hiring them. But she said it in the most wonkish way possible. I have a beef with JVL about Wage Growth, Inflation, and how Statistics manipulate things by papering over the problems using Large scale statistics to obscure that real wages have declined and significantly. If x number of billionaires raise their take home pay by Y and you apply that over the wage pool it looks like wage growth is say 4% while inflation is 3% you are beating inflation. Now this is coming from someone who Hated Statistics. It is why Lies, Damn Lies , and statistics holds true to this day
I am reposting this in the hope more newcomers to the thread will see it and tell me if I have lost my mind.
Bob Kohut
13 mins ago
I am 77 years old, on a fixed income, and a long-time "free" subscriber to the Bulwark. I shelled out the $100 to make a point I have yet to see.
It doesn't make a difference if Jesus Christ returned to earth to replace Biden unless Democrats fundamentally change their strategy.
First, stop talking about what a great job Biden has done because not enough people are listening. Some stats from a recent Harris poll:
*49% of respondents think the stock market is down for the year.
*49% of respondents think unemployment is at 50-year highs.
*56% of respondents think we are in a recession.
*72% of respondents think inflation is going up.
So, I think Democrats need to stop talking about what Biden has done, and stop talking about what Trump did, and stop talking about Trump's lies and morality. NOT ENOUGH PEOPLE ARE LISTENING.
Instead, every Democrat on the face of the planet and hopefully all the contributors to the Bulwark need to start talking non-stop about what Trump will do. Project 2025 gives us a blueprint. The starting and maybe ending point is inflation, which it seems a sizable majority understands, even if they don't know which way it's going.
Trump says he will put a 10% tariff on everything --- say again -- everything imported into the US. Now the question for the ad campaign and rallies, and article is this -- Do you, Mr., Mrs., and Miss America think that 10% is going to be absorbed by US businesses, or will they pass the cost off to the consumer. Won't that raise inflation????
Second, we are told the agricultural, construction, and food service sectors rely heavily on low wage illegal immigrants. Trump is going to round them up and send them back to wherever they came from. Where are companies in those business sectors going to find replacement workers? American citizens will not work for the kinds of wages the companies have been paying illegal, so labor costs will skyrocket. Won't that raise inflation???
We are obsessed with threats to democracy posed by Trump and his minions, but I don't think the general public is with us. Inflation may be the real #1 issue on voters' minds, and I think persuadable voters might listen to common sense when it comes to rising prices on everything coming into the country and the staggering labor costs of replacing illegals.
Harris or Newson would be my choices because they both have the kind of foaming at the mouth attack dog mentality we need. Biden might find it hard to ignore his own accomplishments but maybe somebody around him could convince him persuadable voters don't appear to be listening.
Finally, I am begging the Bulwark authors to start tearing Project 2025 apart and informing the public what's coming.
I agree with the main point. But, in a world where everyone is envious to be the next Jeff Bezos and see all the other well to do as the reason. The project 2025 playbook looks like a way of getting revenge on the other. Revenge is seen as sweet but is actually quite bitter
You are overlooking the biggest problem with a Someone Else candidacy which is that it almost certainly guarantees the fracturing of the African American vote to the extent necessary to guarantee Trump victory. It doesn't need to be much. Also, assuming that the Democratic Party, let alone the anti-Trump coalition, can just magically coalesce around anyone else, even Kamala, is a fantasy.
It's either Biden or Kamala and Kamala has not demonstrated any ability to beat Trump whatsoever. So I suggest we all shut the fuck up about this and get back to the business of beating Trump.
New CNN Poll has Harris trailing Trump by 2%, Surprised me since she has been pummeled since taking office. If she can unite the women vote she could win.
I'm sorry to say the quiet part out loud, but the Democrats painted themselves into a corner on this. Biden selects a bad politician that happens to be a woman and black and now they are tearing their hair out because the party is largely based on sex and race politics. Sorry, but it's true. So they can't dump her but they know she can't win. Biden needs to bite the bullet, say he declines the nomination, and throw it to the delegates at the convention. Otherwise, like the Robert Redford movie, All is Lost.
Let's not beat around the bush, this is what Biden needs to do in light of the SCOTUS ruling.
1. Have Seal Team 6 (or 1,2,3,4,5) take out Trump. Trump's own lawyers said this would be allowable.
2. Arrest and charge with treason, Roberts, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barret, Alito and Thomas. I would also add a corruption charge to Alito and Thomas and if there isn't one on the books just make up something.
Thank you President Biden. You came through for us when we needed it the most. I’m proud to have defended your decency and honor. It’s your wisdom that has saved our great experiment.
Sorry but I disagree on replacing Biden. I think there are many voters - as opposed to pundits - that don't care about his debate and aren't even engaged yet. Plus I haven't heard a peep from any R's saying they've seen Biden showing feebleness in WH meetings and wouldn't they be shouting that? If he gets pushed out then I think Harris would actually do well - and I am not a huge fan - but experience and demographics point to her success. PS It pains me to miss a pod with you and Sarah but I just can't listen to any more anti Biden stuff. In fact I canceled my NYT and WaPo subs today...
Trump and Republicans desperately want Biden to be Trump's opponent. That's why they're mum for now on the subject of Biden's mental decline.
Can they flip the ticket? Harris-Biden?
The only agenda for the party is that they need someone, anyone, with the best chance to defeat Trump, Biden can't. So ... Purely as a candidate, Harris is not the one with the best chance, however, the logistics advantage may mean that she has the best chance. But, I think she may also be the potential candidate that also has the highest chance to lose as well as a candidate. On the surface, it may appear that I have just contradicted myself. Nevertheless, while I think she has much better odds than Biden, but as a candidate, she is is also capable of losing so it is a gamble. If the swing state Governors can figure out how to mitigate the logistics issues, then are sure bets. The party needs to do something that is not their DNA, namely, act with discipline, pragmatism, quickly and align to the candidate. The only with the qualities to pull the party together to get a new nominee is Nancy Pelosi, certainly Schumer can't do it. Nancy, please pull together 'smoke-filled backroom' process to get this done well in advance of the convention. Step up to the challenge and save our country.
Biden can step aside with dignity, cementing his legacy has a great president and a noble political leader who has devoted his life for the people of America. He can tell the nation that in 2020 he saw the grave threat of a second Trump term and decided then that as a candidate he had the best, and perhaps only, chance to defeat Trump. This led him to enter the race. For 2024, the threat posed by a second term for Trump is even graver. Applying his reasoning from 2020, he has determined that while he is confident that he can have a very successful second term, he is not the candidate with the best chance to defeat Trump. Therefore, he is stepping aside and releasing his delegates. He can then add, that rather than name his choice to replace him as the nominee, he will leave that for the party to decide. Waiting for an open convention may be too late, and too damaging to the party's nominee. He can suggest that the party should decide on an alternate process. He will make his recommendation on who the nominee should be to the participants of the process. Because of the threat that Trump poses to our country as we know it. the agenda for the party for 2024 must be to defeat Trump.
I should add that I read the post debate polls as the voters who will decide the election pleading with us to give them a candidate that they can vote for. If the democratic party to can't get their act together in order to do this, they will have let the country down. Years from now when the students of the then world's leader superpower (i.e, Chinese students) will read it about this their history books about the decline and fall of the United States.
Just wanted say thank you JVL for your always excellent analysis and it sounds right to me.
Let's wait for more polls and start building some consensus.
Great column. Maybe the best I’ve read on this topic.
The Supreme Court has essentially abandoned our democracy. They are plainly saying that if (when) Trump is elected, they will not stand in his way of establishing an authoritarian government. And John Robert's is basically giving the American people a finger and saying whatcha gonna do about it?!
My answer is that it is imperative that we hold the Senate and elect a Democrat president.
It’s not Governor Smith.
It’s Governor Whitmer.
Big Gretsch turned down Uncle Joe’s request as VP so that Kamala could be the first black woman president all in one go. Maybe not her sharpe’s decision…but a Harris-Whitmer ticket would be “replacement-level” at the top of the ticket, and EPIC at the VP level; would allow a straightforward transfer of that $91 million; and would be the smoothest route out of this shihole of a campaign we find ourselves in.
Everybody should read Ben Hunt’s “common knowledge” post about how bad this situation is.
https://www.epsilontheory.com/joe-biden-and-the-common-knowledge-game/?utm_campaign=website&utm_medium=Email&utm_source=ET+Newsletter
I begin with the assumption Biden will be on the November ballot unless he voluntarily steps aside. My second assumption is that if he withdraws Harris must replace him as the Presidential candidate. Otherwise a good many African American voters will have cause to question whether Democrats really believe "what we preach" and decide to simply not vote. That would likely guarantee Trump victory in the swing states and thus the election. SO: As a condition of withdrawing if he decides to withdraw, Biden should insist that Harris replace him at the top of the ticket and that the party -- especially those who might have their own Presidential ambitions--genuinely rally around ,and campaign for, her. That is NOT too much for Biden to ask of those who think his exit necessary because Trump poses an existential threat to the republic. I would add that by using his leverage as suggested here, Biden could prevent the party splintering as multiple candidates compete over the next few weeks for the nomination, consuming dollars that will be better spent to beat Trump while also "bloodying"--to Trump's benefit--whichever candidate eventually prevails. And Harris et al ought be thinking who should be on the ticket with her and how to be ready to conduct a winning sprint to election day in November.
Poll out showing Harris trailing by 2. Read this today and it makes sense to me.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/opinion-biden-should-not-just-drop-out-of-the-race-he-should-resign/ar-BB1phhkB
Making Harris the first female president ever could give her a big boost with women voters reluctant to let the first female in the oval office go away.
here is my .02 cents for the taking. Kamala Harris is a bad politician who most people think slept her way to the top. The campaign will get bogged down trying to change a perception. which is why we have the biden bike wreck and such. Accept that the perseption holds water acknowledge it. and move on. One of the Ways trumps gets away with things is he sees all publicity as positive. Trump is like Boxing promoter Don King , just without the brains. You are having issues because where is the phone evidence he offered so many troops to the capital but we do have his call to Zelensky in Ukraine. So, it can be spun like a witch hunt. Sarah Longwell pointed this out in her last focus group Podcast on the hunter verdict. Good example of a failure she went to latin america first and was criticized for that even though any management person would tell you go to source. If we are dealing with it at the border it is too late. Her, response when returning and not stoping at the border was even worse becuase most people are not policy wonks( I happen to be) she was paraphrasing how the swiss government was putting pressure of their major employers to pay those people to stay where they are at by hiring them. But she said it in the most wonkish way possible. I have a beef with JVL about Wage Growth, Inflation, and how Statistics manipulate things by papering over the problems using Large scale statistics to obscure that real wages have declined and significantly. If x number of billionaires raise their take home pay by Y and you apply that over the wage pool it looks like wage growth is say 4% while inflation is 3% you are beating inflation. Now this is coming from someone who Hated Statistics. It is why Lies, Damn Lies , and statistics holds true to this day
I am reposting this in the hope more newcomers to the thread will see it and tell me if I have lost my mind.
Bob Kohut
13 mins ago
I am 77 years old, on a fixed income, and a long-time "free" subscriber to the Bulwark. I shelled out the $100 to make a point I have yet to see.
It doesn't make a difference if Jesus Christ returned to earth to replace Biden unless Democrats fundamentally change their strategy.
First, stop talking about what a great job Biden has done because not enough people are listening. Some stats from a recent Harris poll:
*49% of respondents think the stock market is down for the year.
*49% of respondents think unemployment is at 50-year highs.
*56% of respondents think we are in a recession.
*72% of respondents think inflation is going up.
So, I think Democrats need to stop talking about what Biden has done, and stop talking about what Trump did, and stop talking about Trump's lies and morality. NOT ENOUGH PEOPLE ARE LISTENING.
Instead, every Democrat on the face of the planet and hopefully all the contributors to the Bulwark need to start talking non-stop about what Trump will do. Project 2025 gives us a blueprint. The starting and maybe ending point is inflation, which it seems a sizable majority understands, even if they don't know which way it's going.
Trump says he will put a 10% tariff on everything --- say again -- everything imported into the US. Now the question for the ad campaign and rallies, and article is this -- Do you, Mr., Mrs., and Miss America think that 10% is going to be absorbed by US businesses, or will they pass the cost off to the consumer. Won't that raise inflation????
Second, we are told the agricultural, construction, and food service sectors rely heavily on low wage illegal immigrants. Trump is going to round them up and send them back to wherever they came from. Where are companies in those business sectors going to find replacement workers? American citizens will not work for the kinds of wages the companies have been paying illegal, so labor costs will skyrocket. Won't that raise inflation???
We are obsessed with threats to democracy posed by Trump and his minions, but I don't think the general public is with us. Inflation may be the real #1 issue on voters' minds, and I think persuadable voters might listen to common sense when it comes to rising prices on everything coming into the country and the staggering labor costs of replacing illegals.
Harris or Newson would be my choices because they both have the kind of foaming at the mouth attack dog mentality we need. Biden might find it hard to ignore his own accomplishments but maybe somebody around him could convince him persuadable voters don't appear to be listening.
Finally, I am begging the Bulwark authors to start tearing Project 2025 apart and informing the public what's coming.
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I agree with the main point. But, in a world where everyone is envious to be the next Jeff Bezos and see all the other well to do as the reason. The project 2025 playbook looks like a way of getting revenge on the other. Revenge is seen as sweet but is actually quite bitter
You are overlooking the biggest problem with a Someone Else candidacy which is that it almost certainly guarantees the fracturing of the African American vote to the extent necessary to guarantee Trump victory. It doesn't need to be much. Also, assuming that the Democratic Party, let alone the anti-Trump coalition, can just magically coalesce around anyone else, even Kamala, is a fantasy.
It's either Biden or Kamala and Kamala has not demonstrated any ability to beat Trump whatsoever. So I suggest we all shut the fuck up about this and get back to the business of beating Trump.
New CNN Poll has Harris trailing Trump by 2%, Surprised me since she has been pummeled since taking office. If she can unite the women vote she could win.
Just a plug here, but thanks for what you do. I look forward to your musings every day. Keep up the strong work.
I personally am hoping that Trump suffers a catastrophic illness (or worse) and bows out before the election.
I hate that I just said that. But I did. And I won't take it back.
One man is not more important than democracy.
I'm sorry to say the quiet part out loud, but the Democrats painted themselves into a corner on this. Biden selects a bad politician that happens to be a woman and black and now they are tearing their hair out because the party is largely based on sex and race politics. Sorry, but it's true. So they can't dump her but they know she can't win. Biden needs to bite the bullet, say he declines the nomination, and throw it to the delegates at the convention. Otherwise, like the Robert Redford movie, All is Lost.
Let's not beat around the bush, this is what Biden needs to do in light of the SCOTUS ruling.
1. Have Seal Team 6 (or 1,2,3,4,5) take out Trump. Trump's own lawyers said this would be allowable.
2. Arrest and charge with treason, Roberts, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barret, Alito and Thomas. I would also add a corruption charge to Alito and Thomas and if there isn't one on the books just make up something.
3. Respond to the outcry with: Meh.