I think when people give their opinion in an early poll about who they "favor", they're not talking about who they'll actually *vote for*. They're not going to vote for a dictator who asserts he should have the power to murder his political rivals and has been convicted of having raped a woman. They are just not. This will all seem obvious in November after the election.
I love Bill, I love Tim ... I ... don't know Andrew, but I am sure he is great. BUT ... do you have anybody on tap for snark? Because I'm not sure anybody has the snark that Charlie has, and I need snark. I need snark desperately.
Every time someone says "if the election were held today" it makes me want to punch a wall. That's not how elections work. Everything the Biden campaign does is geared towards peaking in the fall, not in February. The vast majority of events that could influence undecided voters haven't happened yet.
Also, we all can spare ourselves stress this year by understanding just two simple things:
-Polls are useful but blunt tools. They aren't precise enough to tell you much about close elections other than they're close elections. This is especially true 9 months out.
-How a person answers a poll does not always correspond to how they vote. Respondents often use polls to vent or express frustration. In short, polls =/ votes.
Thank you for this! It's exactly how I feel and honestly, am just stressing myself out by listening to all the "if the elections were held today" and what each poll says.
Obervations: 30% of eligible voters would have no idea what you're even talking about. They understand personal economic pain and that's about all the analytics they need. When election media intesifies sometime in July, Fox News really ramps up the defaming of Liberal candidates and Biden is only a couple of missteps (perceived) physically or verbally away from disaster, then we better hope for real good news on several fronts
There is something that makes sense to me about replacing Biden but not in a good way. Ukraine is at a stalemate. Progress against Hamas is slow. Americans may not have any troops involved but if it can’t be done quick, they want it over and pretend like it never happened. If a country wants to be an ostrich in the face of even the lowest levels of adversity, why not prefer Trump?
What amazes me is that so few, when speaking of Carter, mention the Iranian hostage crisis. I believe that his inability to resolve the crisis was the single greatest reason for Carter's loss in 1980.
I won't go into the "October Surprise" conspiracy theory that the Reagan Campaign was behind the failure of Carter's negotiations with Iran. But I will say that Iran's hostility toward Carter was deeply personal. That overthrowing Carter was an Iranian objective as an end in itself and not so much because of some perceived advantages of seeing Reagan elected.
Which brings us to my point of greatest similarity between Biden and Carter. There are several countries who would gain advantages in seeing Biden overthrown... and replaced with a more playable, pliant and transactional Trump. Overt acts like storming embassies and taking CIA operatives as hostages is so 20th century. Today it is possible to take less direct actions to influence the outcome of elections. Everyone learned in 2016 and 2020 that the stability of our Republic depends upon only less than 100,000 voters currently residing in 5 or 6 states. And each of those less than 100,000 voters can be targeted and "turned" which ever way those foreign actors want--- especially when they have a large part of one of the two major parties already turned.
Oh, and the most important earth shattering decision (for low information voters in 1980)--- boycotting the summer Olympics in response to the Russian invasion of Afghanistan.
And don't forget the Ted Kennedy challenge that lasted until mid-August before the election. At the Convention Kennedy even tried to get a rule change so that delegates could be released from their commitments to support Carter. It was his last ditch effort to beat Carter and had as souring an effect as did the Sandernista walkout at the 2016 Convention. The left wing suppressed enthusiasm. Carter's less than great relations with labor unions (the hierarchy endorsed Carter not out of enthusiasm but out of fear of Reagan) meanwhile the ordinary union members and non-union workers migrated to Reagan.
I lived through all of this. Carter and Biden are apples and oranges operating in completely different political environments. The outcomes may be the same for both but for different reasons. But they both have in common having to face malignant actors from outside influencing outcomes. But Biden also has malignant actors operating with the government itself.
One critique about Monday's Bulwark podcast---Charlie & Will should have given a bit more time to the FULL ON b*tchslap Stephanopoulos delivered to J.D. Vance at the end of the interview. George was basically saying "P*ss off, clown...I'm done with you".
Charlie and Tim were my favorite duo on Fridays and I've truly missed them. Congrats to Tim on taking the helm. It's a big job, but he's got the stamina for it!
I'm grateful to Tim for volunteering as tribute because delivering an hour every day, plus TNL, is no joke. But please, FTLOG, Tim, let the guests speak more than you. That's what makes Charlie so great.
In 1980 the median home cost $47,300 in Texas. Today it's $293,800 just for a more complete comparison. Also, the minimum wage in Texas in 1980 was $4.55 and today it's $7.25
I'm a college professor and I can't afford to buy a house unless I get married or have a roommate lol. The rise in homelessness across the country stands in sharp contrast to the "gangbuster economy" I keep getting told is happening. There's more homeless encampments in Houston now than I've ever seen.
I can't help but think that the "epochal turnover" JVL mentioned about our politics entering into a new era where voters judge things differently and want different outcomes than before, has a lot to do with how our politics have kind of become reality TV? Or at least that's the lens through which people view it? What I mean is people just want their politics and politicians to be entertaining more than anything else. On reality TV shows, the most popular person is whoever's the most conniving, obnoxious asshole. There's no outcome anyone is expected to accomplish. Other than staying on the show and...being the most obnoxious asshole. Sound familiar? For obviously different reasons, people got 8 years of Obama being entertaining, followed by 4 years of Trump being entertaining in their own ways. Then here comes this boring old guy who's boring, and he's been around forever, and he just stays at his desk all the time, just doing the work, and he's boring? BIG THUMBS DOWN. DISLIKE. That's why people just know they don't like Biden, without being able to site any real reason why. Except "he's old" (boring). I think for a lot of people, the lines between entertainment and reality really have gotten blurry. Like when you hear actors that play a villain in some movie talk about going out in public and people sneering at them and telling them how much they hate them, and how ashamed they should be for something their fucking fictional character did in a movie. If you're a serious person, who's reasonable, knowledgable, and has workable ideas, great! But that also makes you, and politics, boring to voters. We should be so lucky to have politics and government be boring. That's how you know it's working right. As a wise and silly group of Englishmen (and one of us Yanks) sang while being literally crucified: always look on the bright side of life. At least we only have ONE political party who's gone down this clown-circus hole. Democrats haven't deluded themselves yet. We elected JOE BIDEN for cripe sake! So let's keep our fingers crossed real tight that at least one party stays sane. Now that I've finished my longest ever rant on here, and I even ended on a high note, I'm joining Matt Labash and returning to my usual "slow-dancing with the darkness".
Republicans have lost virtually every election since 2016. They have lost virtually every lawsuit since 2020. They have lost every abortion ballot measure. Even in red states. Biden has passed some of the most consequential legislation in decades. In a divided legislature or with razor thin margins. He is always underestimated. Biden will be fine.
I think so and I hope so. But I'm not betting on it. It could be a near EC landslide for Biden or it could be a total disaster. There is too much in play and we are too far out to really know.
Is it as simple as the reality that if Biden were 15 years younger, his approval would be 55%? Would there really be any doubt about this election despite any flaws he may have on issues like immigration?
I’m a big Whit Ayers fan, but it’s hard to comprehend the Jimmy Carter comparison. Yes I can see his comparisons, but the political environment is just way different than I imagine it was in 1979/1980. I’m guessing Reagan got well over 50% against Carter? Trump still can’t get above 44-46%. There will be no landslide like that was. Trump is way more unpopular than presumably Reagan was in 1980, and Biden has more potential upside in the coming months with the economy continuing to improve.
I do hope Bill's newsletter includes random deep dives into his encyclopedic knowledge of everything, such as the history of gulags and the legend of Quetzalcoatl.
Commenting on one part of the premise JVL set out. ...”Beginning with Obama, that rope got cut. Democrats saw things getting better and their approval increased; Republicans saw the same facts and their approval decreased. This continued under Trump: Democrats thought things were getting worse and Republicans started to approve of Trump more.”
Key observation - People are NOT seeing the SAME FACTS. With seriously split media beginning in Obama years Fox and right wing radio listeners see VERY different “Facts.” This is a major challenge in our current era and I don’t see writers highlighting this enough. As JVL seems to note Republicans and Democrats seeing “the same facts.” NO they are NOT seeing the same “facts!”
This is just media fear porn to get attention.
I think when people give their opinion in an early poll about who they "favor", they're not talking about who they'll actually *vote for*. They're not going to vote for a dictator who asserts he should have the power to murder his political rivals and has been convicted of having raped a woman. They are just not. This will all seem obvious in November after the election.
I love Bill, I love Tim ... I ... don't know Andrew, but I am sure he is great. BUT ... do you have anybody on tap for snark? Because I'm not sure anybody has the snark that Charlie has, and I need snark. I need snark desperately.
Every time someone says "if the election were held today" it makes me want to punch a wall. That's not how elections work. Everything the Biden campaign does is geared towards peaking in the fall, not in February. The vast majority of events that could influence undecided voters haven't happened yet.
Also, we all can spare ourselves stress this year by understanding just two simple things:
-Polls are useful but blunt tools. They aren't precise enough to tell you much about close elections other than they're close elections. This is especially true 9 months out.
-How a person answers a poll does not always correspond to how they vote. Respondents often use polls to vent or express frustration. In short, polls =/ votes.
Thank you for this! It's exactly how I feel and honestly, am just stressing myself out by listening to all the "if the elections were held today" and what each poll says.
Thank you. I am.
Obervations: 30% of eligible voters would have no idea what you're even talking about. They understand personal economic pain and that's about all the analytics they need. When election media intesifies sometime in July, Fox News really ramps up the defaming of Liberal candidates and Biden is only a couple of missteps (perceived) physically or verbally away from disaster, then we better hope for real good news on several fronts
There is something that makes sense to me about replacing Biden but not in a good way. Ukraine is at a stalemate. Progress against Hamas is slow. Americans may not have any troops involved but if it can’t be done quick, they want it over and pretend like it never happened. If a country wants to be an ostrich in the face of even the lowest levels of adversity, why not prefer Trump?
What amazes me is that so few, when speaking of Carter, mention the Iranian hostage crisis. I believe that his inability to resolve the crisis was the single greatest reason for Carter's loss in 1980.
I won't go into the "October Surprise" conspiracy theory that the Reagan Campaign was behind the failure of Carter's negotiations with Iran. But I will say that Iran's hostility toward Carter was deeply personal. That overthrowing Carter was an Iranian objective as an end in itself and not so much because of some perceived advantages of seeing Reagan elected.
Which brings us to my point of greatest similarity between Biden and Carter. There are several countries who would gain advantages in seeing Biden overthrown... and replaced with a more playable, pliant and transactional Trump. Overt acts like storming embassies and taking CIA operatives as hostages is so 20th century. Today it is possible to take less direct actions to influence the outcome of elections. Everyone learned in 2016 and 2020 that the stability of our Republic depends upon only less than 100,000 voters currently residing in 5 or 6 states. And each of those less than 100,000 voters can be targeted and "turned" which ever way those foreign actors want--- especially when they have a large part of one of the two major parties already turned.
Oh, and the most important earth shattering decision (for low information voters in 1980)--- boycotting the summer Olympics in response to the Russian invasion of Afghanistan.
And don't forget the Ted Kennedy challenge that lasted until mid-August before the election. At the Convention Kennedy even tried to get a rule change so that delegates could be released from their commitments to support Carter. It was his last ditch effort to beat Carter and had as souring an effect as did the Sandernista walkout at the 2016 Convention. The left wing suppressed enthusiasm. Carter's less than great relations with labor unions (the hierarchy endorsed Carter not out of enthusiasm but out of fear of Reagan) meanwhile the ordinary union members and non-union workers migrated to Reagan.
I lived through all of this. Carter and Biden are apples and oranges operating in completely different political environments. The outcomes may be the same for both but for different reasons. But they both have in common having to face malignant actors from outside influencing outcomes. But Biden also has malignant actors operating with the government itself.
Bitcoin is ridiculous. And Biden is not Carter. And I'll miss Charlie quite a bit.
One critique about Monday's Bulwark podcast---Charlie & Will should have given a bit more time to the FULL ON b*tchslap Stephanopoulos delivered to J.D. Vance at the end of the interview. George was basically saying "P*ss off, clown...I'm done with you".
Charlie and Tim were my favorite duo on Fridays and I've truly missed them. Congrats to Tim on taking the helm. It's a big job, but he's got the stamina for it!
I'm grateful to Tim for volunteering as tribute because delivering an hour every day, plus TNL, is no joke. But please, FTLOG, Tim, let the guests speak more than you. That's what makes Charlie so great.
Thank you for speaking the truth JVL.
In 1980 the median home cost $47,300 in Texas. Today it's $293,800 just for a more complete comparison. Also, the minimum wage in Texas in 1980 was $4.55 and today it's $7.25
Adjusting for inflation, the median home cost of $47,300 is equivalent to just over $168,000 today and the $4.55 minimum wage is equivalent to $16.17.
So home prices have risen by about 75% in real terms while the minimum wage is worth less than half of what it was.
I don't think any minimum wage earners are in the market for a house but this does illuminate how far in the wrong direction that we are traveling.
I'm a college professor and I can't afford to buy a house unless I get married or have a roommate lol. The rise in homelessness across the country stands in sharp contrast to the "gangbuster economy" I keep getting told is happening. There's more homeless encampments in Houston now than I've ever seen.
Hello fellow Houstonian! I haven't seen any MORE homelessness than I'm used to in Houston but there have been many articles written on how Houston is leading the way in fighting homelessness at least. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/opinion/homeless-houston-dallas.html
I can't help but think that the "epochal turnover" JVL mentioned about our politics entering into a new era where voters judge things differently and want different outcomes than before, has a lot to do with how our politics have kind of become reality TV? Or at least that's the lens through which people view it? What I mean is people just want their politics and politicians to be entertaining more than anything else. On reality TV shows, the most popular person is whoever's the most conniving, obnoxious asshole. There's no outcome anyone is expected to accomplish. Other than staying on the show and...being the most obnoxious asshole. Sound familiar? For obviously different reasons, people got 8 years of Obama being entertaining, followed by 4 years of Trump being entertaining in their own ways. Then here comes this boring old guy who's boring, and he's been around forever, and he just stays at his desk all the time, just doing the work, and he's boring? BIG THUMBS DOWN. DISLIKE. That's why people just know they don't like Biden, without being able to site any real reason why. Except "he's old" (boring). I think for a lot of people, the lines between entertainment and reality really have gotten blurry. Like when you hear actors that play a villain in some movie talk about going out in public and people sneering at them and telling them how much they hate them, and how ashamed they should be for something their fucking fictional character did in a movie. If you're a serious person, who's reasonable, knowledgable, and has workable ideas, great! But that also makes you, and politics, boring to voters. We should be so lucky to have politics and government be boring. That's how you know it's working right. As a wise and silly group of Englishmen (and one of us Yanks) sang while being literally crucified: always look on the bright side of life. At least we only have ONE political party who's gone down this clown-circus hole. Democrats haven't deluded themselves yet. We elected JOE BIDEN for cripe sake! So let's keep our fingers crossed real tight that at least one party stays sane. Now that I've finished my longest ever rant on here, and I even ended on a high note, I'm joining Matt Labash and returning to my usual "slow-dancing with the darkness".
Republicans have lost virtually every election since 2016. They have lost virtually every lawsuit since 2020. They have lost every abortion ballot measure. Even in red states. Biden has passed some of the most consequential legislation in decades. In a divided legislature or with razor thin margins. He is always underestimated. Biden will be fine.
I think so and I hope so. But I'm not betting on it. It could be a near EC landslide for Biden or it could be a total disaster. There is too much in play and we are too far out to really know.
Is it as simple as the reality that if Biden were 15 years younger, his approval would be 55%? Would there really be any doubt about this election despite any flaws he may have on issues like immigration?
I’m a big Whit Ayers fan, but it’s hard to comprehend the Jimmy Carter comparison. Yes I can see his comparisons, but the political environment is just way different than I imagine it was in 1979/1980. I’m guessing Reagan got well over 50% against Carter? Trump still can’t get above 44-46%. There will be no landslide like that was. Trump is way more unpopular than presumably Reagan was in 1980, and Biden has more potential upside in the coming months with the economy continuing to improve.
I do hope Bill's newsletter includes random deep dives into his encyclopedic knowledge of everything, such as the history of gulags and the legend of Quetzalcoatl.
Not to mention the Chupacabra.
:)
Commenting on one part of the premise JVL set out. ...”Beginning with Obama, that rope got cut. Democrats saw things getting better and their approval increased; Republicans saw the same facts and their approval decreased. This continued under Trump: Democrats thought things were getting worse and Republicans started to approve of Trump more.”
Key observation - People are NOT seeing the SAME FACTS. With seriously split media beginning in Obama years Fox and right wing radio listeners see VERY different “Facts.” This is a major challenge in our current era and I don’t see writers highlighting this enough. As JVL seems to note Republicans and Democrats seeing “the same facts.” NO they are NOT seeing the same “facts!”