The quiet coming from the White House sure suggests that the people around the president don't think Joe at his best can overcome Joe at his worst. Jon Lovett joins Tim Miller to discuss all the possible options as the world waits for Biden to say what he's going to do.
show notes:
Good music at end, as always
I’m also real late to this pod and comments. My only comment is this. I’ve heard Sarah, JVL, and Tim use the term “fantasy politics” several times since the debate. But Tim saying that whoever runs for the Dems only needs to win 3 swing states to defeat Trump. Basically saying maybe Kamala, or a popular Dem governor could do this. I’m not saying that President Biden shouldn’t end his candidacy, but who’s promoting fantasy politics here??
I’m late to the comments but really appreciated the pod convo between Tim and Jon. Can’t say it made my stress level drop by any significant amount, but I enjoyed listening to the intelligent, broad sighted discussion. Thank you to Tim for always speaking his unvarnished truth and for Jon and the PSA crew!
Thx Tim for asking Jon the Madison C question.
I am sick of the media’s frenzied focus on President Biden’s age and decline and barely a whisper about Trump’s age, decline, lies, etc. Excerpt from Heather Cox Richardson’s Substack piece today: “Journalist Jennifer Schulze of Heartland Signal noted today that as of 8:00 this morning, the New York Times had published 192 pieces on Biden’s debate performance: 142 news articles and 50 opinion pieces. Trump was covered in 92 stories, about half of which were about the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling. Although Trump has frequently slurred his words or trailed off while speaking and repeatedly fell asleep at his own criminal trial, none of the pieces mentioned Trump’s mental fitness.”
Loved this interview and the fact that you guys got into it a bit! I just wanted to point out that something we can all do is contact our Democratic senators and congressmen/women to ask them to call for Biden to withdraw. I live in OH, so I emailed Sherrod, as well as Emilia Sykes - she is not my congressperson (it's a Republican) - but she accepts emails from outside her district. Let's inundate Congress with the People's Voice!!
I did the same in MN.
I wrote to Sherrod, though with different thoughts.
For 3 years the Bulwark has pointed out the failure of Dems to articulate a message. Agree. The people don’t like East Coast Irish in many places. ( see recent new Supreme Court members). JKK was hated by slightly fewer people than Nixon. Biden was hated by far fewer people than Trump. Biden is not loved. The performance on the debate made me ill, and I watched in at 2 am in Loch Ness. I wish I had got some message from the Loch-but only silence. Harris is hated by too many people because she is a woman and black. Her ability is not the problem. Either way the loss will probably not be at the level of McGovern vs Nixon-but it will be close. The only hope is the hatred of Trump will prevail. But I don’t think the American people know what is decent any more. And the Dems are still using Hollywood spokespeople who haven’t made a decent film in 10 years-as their primary spokespeople for fund raising. Why can’t Dems get out and kick ass? Serious question.
Joe Biden could resign and make Kamala Harris an incumbent president running against Trump.
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📖👇🏽CH 4 The Mind of Hitler & The Roots of the 3rd Reich from The Rise & Fall of the Third #Reich by #Shirer. 40 pp (4% of book) Knowing this philosophy shd give you a frightening peek into a possible #TrumpReich. FIGHT BACK NOW.
https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:US:8fdb8074-7dac-4b10-a8d4-c294410034be
For sure Arlaine
What if the Biden team strategy is that they keep Biden off the stage and out of sight because they believe Donald Trump will remind people how crazy he is and they want Trump to sell the fact that Biden is an alternative and people wont see the stumbles or rambling from Biden?
That may be the thought but I don't think it's working. Trump has been laying low this week and Biden needs to show the debate was as fluke and I'm not sure it is.
Excellent conversation Gentlemen. Thank you.
Aw man, y’all’s chat about the possibility of Biden eeking it out in three states brought visions of Bush v Gore. It should be perfectly clear now that SCOTUS will hand the election to Trump if we get anorher Broward County situation. Eeking isn’t necessarily winning.
Thanks for a great discussion. Just one clarification regarding student loan forgiveness for doctors. My son has close to $500,000 in student loans from his medical education. None of it was forgiven. I believe the loan forgiveness program excludes high income earners.
There is no end to the continued Biden candidacy save for a humiliating defeat in November.
The worst that changing the ticket now would be ti have that same conclusion.
By acting now, there is a real chance to turn things around and save America from autocracy.
The “do nothing” option, out of misplaced loyalty to Joe Biden, is cult like.
And America already has one too many political cults.
Tim you are 100% correct. Those democrats that refuse to believe their “lying” eyes are the ones that sound, and act just like MAGA.
This is not a one off. This issue has been circulating for over a year. I was in denial because no one gave us an evidence it was true. I was wrong.
And Biden has been playing catch up for a year. He’s losing in every swing, and battleground state by almost double digits. States like NM and Virginia are now in play.
Biden did an amazing job, but he is not capable of governing for four more years, or capable of articulating his successes, or refuting Trump’s lies.
The good news is that 72% of Americans want a younger candidate, whether Biden or Trump, so a change isn’t a death sentence. It might actually be our saving grace. Plus, a new candidate wouldn’t have the Gaza or Ukraine baggage that is hurting Joe in crucial swing states with the youth, and Muslim communities.
Great podcast, and I agree with you wholeheartedly. I would never allow MAGA to gaslight me, and I certainly won’t allow my party to do the same.
For the sake of our republic, Biden needs to go. Voter outrage, and Biden’s inability to communicate his messaging effectively, or at all, for the matter, means we need to pass the baton to a younger generation, sooner than later.
IMHO…:)
Sigh, I don't have lyin eyes, I have a way different view of what actually happened, while acknowledging it was bad, I don't think there was any conspiracy etc.
Can't you guys make your case without insulting those of us who disagree? Please..I am not insulting you
No offense, but I didn’t intend to insult anyone. However, I wasn’t talking about you, I was talking about people who say Biden answered all the questions honestly and correctly, and then deflect to Trump’s lies.
We all know Trump is a liar, but apparently over 50% of Americans didn’t get the memo, or believe otherwise. My point, if you’re expecting Trump’s authoritarian tendencies, and his lies, or his health to throw the election to Biden, then we’ve already lost.
That said, I’m upset because Biden and his team have been lying to us for over a year. This election is greater than any one person. If he would have decided to not seek a second term, we’d be talking about Trump, the fascist SC, and the Heritage Foundation; instead, we’re talking about Biden’s cognitive decline. He’s become a distraction, and this is a recipe for disaster.
Thanks for the clarification
Spot on, Robert. Thank you
My 2x Trump voter Republican brother just stopped by today and we spoke about the Debate. I told him Biden should step down and we should get another candidate. He told me that he doesn’t even care about party affiliation and would vote for anyone that is not Trump or Biden. I really think if we get another candidate with a fresh much younger face, we could make some major gains.
Totally agree. The focus groups have been telling us that for over a year. Most Americans want a charismatic, youthful leader, whose not a psychopath. And sadly, for a country with 330 million people, we are stuck with a choice of a corrupt, narcissistic, vindictive sociopath, or an amicable octogenarian, suffering from cognitive decline.
You would think a country like ours would offer a plethora of qualified candidates, yet here we are, thanks to a two party system that’s dividing this nation in two.
Good times…:)
Excellent take, devoid of panic. The future of our country is what counts in the end, and it's no time to dismiss what is self-evidently true in service of faint hopes.
I bought the pod bros book and you should too! Also nice to hear other gays in their 40s lamenting about never being invited to bubble/foam parties lol. Tim has real conversations with people, and Lovett is in his villain era which I fully support.
Side question, are we gonna do a "Survivor" watch party or something? Maybe Bulwark vs PSA on how long y'all think Lovett lasts? Just an idea, but I think it would be a welcome respite from the wailing and gnashing of teeth that has become standard in American politics. All of us could use a break, and more crossover content!
lol on the bubble foam parties.
Love the Bulwark vs PSA bet and watch party idea. JVL wants Sarah to go on survivor after Lovett. She says she’d think about it.
We had to cut my trash talk about how I think he bombed in survivor and the plans to watch it to not incur CBS wrath
Secret. Pod. 🤐💙
Anyone who has witnessed a loved one descend into dementia knows that things are not going to get better. The good days will become more infrequent just as baseline cognitive impairment increases.
Surely there are enough swing voters with such experience who are - rightly - focused on the next four years, rather than just election night. They are not going to be satisfied by Biden's having a good day or two (especially if events are scripted or stage-managed).
It seems as though, for Biden staffers, the crucial date is his official nomination rather than the rest of the campaign, much less the length of a second term.
They seem to think that if they can just hold things together long enough to force everyone in the pro-democracy camp to fall back in behind Biden that they can tough it out.
Self-deception has never been a good recipe for success.
I think shaking things up would generate energy and momentum. Yes it would be messy, but it would also be an opportunity to show that Democrats are about more than just talk. If successful, it would elevate Joe to hero status.
The problem is not that D's will switch their vote to Trump. The problem is that they will stay home on election day. A Harris / Buttigieg ticket?
Agree that Dems will simply not vote…. The college kids and disaffected Dems. Plus: Nikki voters and independents…. Not voting Trump or Biden.
Let's get them out there and see if they can do it. Let's see what Whitmer and Shapiro can do. Gavin Newsom wants to try too.
We don't have to pick an official team until the delegates vote. Let's have our best get out there and prove they can take Trump to task and show us their plan for the future. It'd confuse right wing media too by not giving them a single target to focus on.
Personally, I'd very much enjoy making Trump the target dummy of these very qualified people.
You all realize that they aren't asking our opinion on who and aren't going to.
We are all just raindrops on the pond? Very likely but then again we might be a flapping butterfly that triggers to a storm. People say the same thing about voting but they are wrong. This explains why the autocratic drive to condition their people to feel politically helpless.
Discussing these things helps me flesh out my thoughts and identify flaws in my reasoning. Will it make a difference? Maybe not but who can say for sure.
Tim I love the podcast and all you do to wrangle all these cats around here.
My take is maybe simplistic but so is baseball; throw the ball, catch the ball, hit the ball.
Do we go to the bullpen in the third inning because our star pitcher walks 3 and loads the bases?
Yes the debate was a disaster but it was not totally unmitigated, every one got a chance to hear Trump spews nonstop lies and his "Baffle Them with Bullshit" strategy. The only ones baffled by his bullshit after all are the 30% of one of two parties who are simply baffled generally.
Forgive me for being naive but SCOTUS just handed Joe Biden the single best argument to vote for him and not the "MiniMe Muusolini".
So Baseball doesn't have cheerleaders but this is what we need now, People who can rile up not just the base but every American who believes in our country, still,.
No thank you.
1968 lbj->humphry we get Nixon
1976 Ronny challenges Ford we get Carter
1980 Kennedy challenges Carter we get HW
1992 Buchanan challenges HW we get Clinton
2024 No real challenge to Biden, result??
BTW, people, Biden does NOT need to be in office four years, his only task is to beat DJT, install a cabinet, then he can pass the baton at any time. OUR task is to flip the House and maintain or gain majority in the Senate, serious bonus points if we could get 60.
That is exactly why no one seriously challenged Biden in the primaries.
What we have now is different. It is not at all clear Biden can beat Trump. That debate performance might have guaranteed he can't. If Biden stays in, no one will challenge him and if Trump wins, there goes our nation and Biden's legacy.
Here, we are talking about Biden stepping aside and endorsing the candidate who replaces him.
Also, if you think Biden has coat tails long enough to flip the Senate, I need to find out what you're smoking. We'd need to keep West Virginia without Manson, keep Montana and Ohio (both very red but doable), keep AZ, NV, and MD just to not lose ground. I'll be delighted to take the House (plausible) and keep the White House which won't be with someone who only wants it for few months after the election.
LBJ wasn't going to beat Nixon and he knew it. Bobby Kennedy might have if he wasn't assassinated. Humphry couldn't distance himself far enough from Johnson. If Muskie headed the ticket, he might have won. Also, Nixon wasn't promising to put our Constitution through the shredder and become a dictator who would never leave office.. Reagan beat Carter in 1980, not HW. Perot was more of a factor in 1992 but mostly it was the recession that didn't end soon enough. Ford pardoned Nixon and in a debate, claimed Poland was a free nation. Biden did much worse in his debate then that in 2024.
Learn from the past but don't let it paralyze you.
Well, Biden can provably beat the child rapist so that’s also not the exact LBJ scenario. I’ll go back to Biden only needs to win in Nov and get sworn in in Jan and not much more than that.
I’m not convinced at all based on one debate that Biden has an actual mental impairment What if he does? Ronny was pretty far gone by the end of his last term and republicans didn’t seem to mind (no pun) at all.
The polls and voters in focus groups say otherwise. Only 1 in 4 still OK voting for Biden after the debate. It was gut wrenching watching his blank-faced stare and listening to his word salads at the debate. We can’t unsee that.
DJT is a rapist, felon and fraudster.
Polls are bogus and Sarah’s focus groups are filled with the dumbest fox addled people in the country, who are hopeless regardless of dem candidate. Make the magic swap, Fox will convince them that it’s satan in flesh.
Biden can't prove it in the polls. It's insane that Trump is in the race. It's more insane that Biden isn't 20 points ahead of him but instead Biden is behind. Biden wasn't the incumbent in 2020 and was 4 years younger.
Something's wrong with this picture and you need better answers then that to explain it.
BTW, I updated my 1st reply. You may want to check it out. Sorry I did it piecemeal. I had to verify some things. Also Reagan's 1st 1984 debate was him reciting Shakespeare compared to Biden's performance. You need to go back and check them both.
What do I believe? I believe we’ve been under attack for years by Putin , Xi and every other autocrat out there, plus all the internal autocrat wannabes and they all know full and well the only way for them to win this cycle is to sew doubt in Biden’s health and ability to do the job (sound familiar, it should) and to sew doubt into Kamala as a respectable VP.
One debate performance isn’t going to flip this election one way or another, but if ALL of media plays into Putin and Xi’s plans (which they are because they are being paid by Putin and Xi to do it), then, sure, media has the chance to take enough points off the board to sway things.
I never said that keeping the Senate would be easy.
It’s a fact that polling is wholly broken, what happened in VA last cycle? What happened in NY3 recently?
I agree about Putin and Xi, just not to the extent that CNN is in their pocket.
Sadly, we've as a nation have been pretty good at undermining our own democracy for a long time now. Fox did what they did because it gains them market share. The 1619 project declared our founding principles grew from tainted soil. etc.
Republicans after Romney lost to Obama grew terrified of making any "notebook full of women" mistakes and the tea party populism grew up out of a sense that no one in Washington understood them or listened to them and they got mad. Big 'C' conservatives tried to harness them but eventually got swallowed by them. Green eye shade Republicans supporting the establishment (like me) tried to push them off as being hysterical and they got REALLY mad. Trump discovered those angry voters in Iowa and tapped into that anger and proved that an unfit grifter with NO experience, simply by saying, "I hear you. I get it! Let me be your voice!", could harness that energy and win the highest office in the land over someone Trump could paint an unpopular elitist (Hilary) and the rest, as they say is history.
Now, despite Trump morphing into lying autocratic wanna be dictator (it was a very short walk) with a bunch of disaffected voter he's given a community and a voice, who with many old style Republicans who somehow think their party still exists or just don't know where else to go and he's got a lock on 35-40% of the vote. Dems have say 40% and 20-25% of the voters don't know, or don't care and just wish they had better choices so they could get back to their lives without people yelling at them all the time (the "stop yelling" crowd is probably more like 60-80%).
Into all that, with the alt-truth right on one side, coming up against the Progressive left who are convinced they know the "true" path but haven't sold the rest of America on that path nearly as well as the Progressives think they have (what is wrong with Kansas??), a big chunk of Americans, are like the audience of a magic trick. They aren't sure what to think but they are quite sure they are being fooled and now, like the "normal" Republican candidates of 2016, the Democratic leadership are terrified of making a mistake and have their heads in the sand saying, "Every thing is good here. Trump is worse then a can of soup, right? Stay the course and we'll be fine". and don't dare say Biden is slumped over the wheel and they don't know what to do. "He'll come to any second... Any second now". Well, the American people have seen there's a big problem and most aren't buying the "we've got this" messaging.
It's time for the Democratic party to get it's head out of the sand (and I know, it's really politically scary out there) and level with themselves and the American people and be honest about Biden's decline and given the reality of the situation, like those in charge of airline flights on 9/11, be bold and do the unprecedented things that must be done.
You suggest just holding on until after the election. As I say, a lot of really smart people around Biden feel the same way. I think it's pretty obvious that that isn't going to work because to do so, we'll crash and burn and there's no walking away from that as a small 'd' democratic nation. We must calmly but urgently change course into uncharted waters. We need to reopen the nomination process and be honest about why. Biden simply isn't up to being President for 4 more years and is not able to explain to the American people why Trump is unfit.
It's time to pick a new captain from a new generation to, hopefully, lead us to safety. I think they can.
Very sorry Gregory, I couldn’t read the whole thing.
I’ll respond with DJT evil, Biden good, polls bogus, we’re under attack so we need to stay strong.
No worries. Half the exercise is m working though an idea in my own head. Thanks for that chance to talk though this.
Just adding that sometimes good intentions just aren't enough. We'll all hang tough against DJT no matter who he's running against.
100% aligned on this. I’ve been in Spain for a bit and as soon as I get home, I’m joining the Biden/Harris campaign in whatever capacity I can and will do everything I can to ensure victory and the possibility we can start to unwind the horrors of what the corrupt court is doing to our country. But we need the House and Senate, too.
On an unrelated note, is anyone else getting auto logged out of the site? Since a couple days ago after a royal rant directed at JVL, I’ve had to log back in every time I want to make a new comment.
This happens to me once in while, but, not often
I'm pretty new to the site so I'm still getting used to the navigation but in our exchange, I don't remember getting auto logged.
Also, good luck helping the campaigns!
I had to log back in to respond to this message. Seems I’ve been targeted by the Bulwark team
Polls are now showing Trump ahead or tied in blue leaning states like New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia. Polls were actually fairly accurate in the 2020 presidential election and 2022 midterms. Last Thursday wasn't just "One Debate". Biden should have been out on the talk shows and holding hour long press conferences starting Friday showing the American people that it was just a fluke and that he could still do it. Instead we get a couple five minute appearances with teleprompters, handpicked friendly audiences, and no questions allowed. The fact that his team isn't putting him out there is telling. It means he can't do it. It also explains why he didn't do the traditional Super Bowl interview. I already know two people in my small friend/family group who were going to vote for Biden but are no longer going to after watching the debate. If this is multiplied across the country and especially the swing states, this means Biden cannot win. Hell, he was already behind before the debate. As risky as it is to have an option to choose someone else, it is much less risky than keeping Biden, who realistically has close to zero chance of winning.
Also “traditional superbowl interview”? How old are you, 12?
I never insulted you. I find that people who use insults usually do that because they know their arguments are weak. Surprised that you're not aware of the Super Bowl interviews that presidents traditionally do.
I deeply apologize for my insulting comment. In my view, something that only started in 2004 and is wrapped up in a wholly commercial event isn’t a tradition. But I’ve just had a long conversation with ChatGPT that I won’t paste in fully here. ChatGPT’s main definition of tradition is something that is passed generation to generation, but, ChatGPT is very young and it says this:
“ The tradition of airing a presidential interview during the Super Bowl began in 2004. The first interview featured then-President George W. Bush, who was interviewed by CBS sports broadcaster Jim Nantz. ”
W did it in ‘4, ‘5 and ‘8
Obama every year
DJT in ‘17, ‘19 and ‘20
Biden in ‘21 and ‘22
So, W, DJT each missed one and Biden two.
Read what you want in Biden’s misses. Me, nothing other than corporate media being mad. Not a tradition in my view, nor should it be, it’s a commercial event where billionaires make money off the masses, no more , no less, of course, it can provide entertainment as well.
Blah blah blah polls are bogus. The results are that Dems have been winning everywhere by single and double digits greater than the polls.
It’s also true that every time a party turns against its incumbent, it loses.
So I’m 1000% Biden/Harris.
I posted this over in the YouTube comments but I feel it got lost in the 1150 other comments most of which were expressing their fealty to Biden but I thought they were missing the point. Sorry if it seems like I'm spamming. Having made Rick Wilson's Enemy's list by simply expressing doubts about Biden,, I'm a little frustrated:
For all those saying "I hate Trump and I'm voting for Biden!" tell me this. Will you for an instant consider voting for Trump or even consider staying home if Biden steps aside and the Democratic candidate is Kamala Harris? Gretchen Whiten? Josh Shapiro? No, you absolutely will not.
The question isn't will you vote for anyone but Trump but who in the Democratic party can best run against Trump. Fair or not, the current polls and the debate strongly suggest that Biden is NOT that person. I'm a #Never(Ever!!)Trumper. I would vote for a can of soup before I vote for Trump but I am not a swing voter. I am not a double hater. I'm not someone who will stay home if I'm worried Trump's opponent can't perform the duties of the Presidency. You folks are not either. However, we are not sufficient to defeat Trump by ourselves. We need as many of those voters I mentioned as possible. The REAL question you must ask is, can Biden get most of those voters?
This is why Biden must A.) prove he's up for campaigning effectively against Trump. He certainly did NOT do that in the debate. We need to know he can NOW, or B.) step down from the race and pass the baton to Kamala Harris. The problem there is, the Republican machine is ready for her and if she hasn't improved as a Presidential candidate since she dropped out in 2020, she might not be ready now. A Biden stumble is tragic. A Biden stumble followed by a Harris stumble is a complete disaster leaving us with C.) Biden steps aside and opens the race back up, let the new candidates take it to Trump, let them prove they can beat him, hopefully beat him soundly. I hope it's a feeding frenzy against him,. If there is no clear leader, Biden can back whoever he thinks is best. If that is Harris, great! If someone is better, that's wonderful, pick them. We need the best from the Democrats to hopefully not just beat Trump but crush him.
Do you seriously think that we, facing the existential threat to our nation that Trump poses, can't unite around a strong candidate? Do you think if I'm a Shapiro supporter, that I wouldn't back Harris to the hilt of the delegates think she's the best? Be serious. Nothing unites us more then Trump. Let's field our ace against him!
We can do this. We MUST do this. We must unite around our best candidate and that candidate must prove themselves before the delegates vote.
OK, so this is completely immoral and unethical, but what if someone were to insinuate that the Trump team somehow drugged Joe prior to debate? I mean, obviously Dem voters would never be dumb enough to believe that. But R voters, they believe anything, lol.
Fantastic podcast with a perfect song selection for the closing song!
I appreciate Joe. I genuinely think his first term has been remarkable, particularly considering the shitshow he was handed. THANK YOU, PRESIDENT BIDEN.
However...
In all honesty, I was worried about him becoming president in 2020, let alone staying for a second term. In the 2020 primary, I voted for Pete Buttigieg. I knew he wouldn't win and of course I would vote for Biden in the general, but I wanted Pete to know that he had support here.
This has so little, if anything, to do with Joe Biden. Americans are screaming that they hesitate to vote for him. For myself, I would vote for a soup can before I'd ever vote for trump, but I am not a "swing" voter, and I live in Washington State. It's pretty safe here, regardless, let's face it.
You and the Bulwark have my support. I very much respect President Biden, but I am a realist. If he stays IN, I will, of course, vote for him. But... I am skeptical that that would be the best course for the country. And the stakes this time could not be higher.
Stay strong 💪
I’m a Pete fan myself. I still have my T-Shirt and I got a Bumper Sticker one day before he dropped out. Sigh.
By the way, thank you Tim for all you do. I keep you and the rest of the Bulwark in my prayers.
Tim, great pod. I've worried about TB folks since the debate, but you most of all. (I'm so glad you got out of the country for a while prior to this nightmare.) Thank you for being you.
Always enjoy Lovett when he's being serious; he makes really good points.
I still haven't settled on an opinion as to whether Biden should stay or go; but something obviously has to change - drastically and immediately - and I don't have much faith that the Biden team can pull that off.
My favorite line of the pod was you saying that maybe unprecedented times call for unprecedented solutions.
Love to listen to both of you. Can’t some neurologists help with this? How much cognitive decline is there? Is his stiffness Parkinson’s or some other neurological disorder?
I love the frenemy energy here.
Lifelong Dem here, and Tim thank you so much for the work you are doing daily. You are having very thoughtful, honest dialogue and that’s what is so needed here. Without trying to sound crass,no one wants to be the person to tell grandpa he hast to turn over his car keys. But for the safety of the public someone has to step up and do it.
Keep up the good work , it’s what’s keeping me sane during these incredibly insane times!
Thank Jon too, please 🤠
I think the most important thing to remember is this: we’re all worried, we’re all trying to understand what is best, and regardless of the suggestions being made, they are made in good faith. Attacking each other is NOT the answer. And lastly, none of us KNOWS the answer. I liked Lovett’s observation that we’re all floating in the sea. Peace.
Tim, you are amazing and wonderful. Sorry you are trapped in the box of screams this week. Much love and gratitude to you and the whole Bulwark crew for all the important work you do and for buoying the rest of us in these heart and gut wrenching times.
Yes and the entire team has been spot-on this week. Expressing anguish, blue skying options, adjusting to realities. All with intellect and humor and comraderie. Thank you Team Bulwark. Your pain and dismay are palpable…. as it is for most of us.
I just read a report that democratic governors came out with a statement of support for Biden. I guess they want to follow him over the cliff like a bunch of lemmings and drag the rest of us with them. Pretty hypocritical how democratic leaders criticized republican leaders who never stood up to Trump. Here we have a bunch of democratic governors who know Biden can't win but refuse to state that in public. Bunch of cowards that are going to give us Trump again because they are too afraid to stand up to a 81 year old stubborn president who is going to let his pride prevent us from having a candidate that can actually beat Trump. I'm not even sure if I will vote in November, I'm so angry right now.
Those governors marched out like robots and read the script they had been given. Beyond cringey. It was MAGA-esque
*shrug* That isn't the place for governors to voice their concerns to Biden. That would be behind closed doors in their Zoom meeting or in a direct phone call. Several of the likely alternates to Biden come from that group too. They can't go first. Now if no one dared question him at their meeting or expressed their concerns in private. I agree with you.
I still contend that the best way to get Biden to step aside is to simply sit down with him and have him watch the debate. He's too smart/experienced a politician to not see the problem. The question then is will hubris keep him from admitting he's got to step aside.
Thank you for providing words in opinions exactly matching my own. THIS makes me feel better just knowing I’m not freaking nuts.
🥜
Great show, I also listen to John’s podcast. You’re both brilliant.
Apologies, Jon’s podcast.
Love It!!! I think that Tim’s discussion with Jon Lovett is the best take-down of the Biden Debate Debacle. Serious yet funny, practical & helpful, and hardcore yet heartwarming
I’m a 67 yo white woman from MN who is a huge fan of both Tim and Lovett. Bulwark+ and PSA+.
Make a Lovett-Tim convo a regular segment on the Bulwark.
And Tim—sending love this week. I like the questions you’re asking. Many of us are asking them too.
Voting with Jean!
Good show. But... I thought it was going to be Jon Lovitz. "Acting!" Happy 4th, everybody. It's going to be a dark one. It may require a constitutional amendment to undo the damage the Supreme Court just did to the American experiment in self-government, but we shall rebuild everything they destroy. Stay patriotic. And let the assholes know it's our flag, too.
“Like the Democratic Party, we are not two kids in a trench coat. Pretending to be adults. We are going to decide who we send out to represent us. And we can hide from that decision, which is just another way of making the decision and choosing Joe Biden.
We can look around and wait for somebody else to be the adult. which I think has been a little bit what it's felt like, right? All these politicians and others saying on background to reporters that they want somebody else to step up, but nobody actually coming forward and stepping up. Or we can just be adults.
We can just take on the responsibility and say, we're going to have this debate and we're going to trust each other and we're going to be honest about the fact that it's risky and messy, but we're not going to shy away from the responsibility. “
This SO MUCH. We don’t need to trick ourselves into remaining on this “safe” island that’s really disappearing into the ocean. We can manifest more for ourselves. Like no one is still going to be having this conversation after the convention. But until then, we can raise hell and try to forge the scenario that most likely secures the future of our democracy. Or we can stay on this 81-year-old island and be slowly overtaken wave by autocratic wave.
The laugh and the "Get Out" borrowing on that bit were for the ages. Even Joe Biden's ages.
It’s later than 3:00 pm. Good to know it’s Jon’s fault.
Tim, I’d appreciate if you would have someone on with the contrary opinion as I think that would be a worthwhile discussion. I appreciate your passion and desire to keep Trump out of the office but your analysis about what happens once Biden steps aside lacks important considerations that cannot be overlooked. Kamala seems like an awfully risky move for an unknown marginal gain. Let alone the firestorm that would ensure just from simply Biden announcing he’s stepping down. I don’t see this as a viable path forward 5 months out. Perhaps he shouldn’t have ran again but that’s neither here nor there. Everyday is precious and we need to get back to focusing on the threat Trump poses NOT the threat Biden poses.
It is the only viable path forward. There are so many “other” voices every which way—don’t need more of them here. We need to be saying & believe it: Kamala Can Win & Biden Must Go (like tomorrow). I was a staunch Biden supporter (even though I was very sad about not having a candidate who clearly could win), donated again before debate. BUT it’s clear as day: Biden is not the one we need right now, & we desperately need to stop DJT/Project 2025. Terrible act of stubbornness & greed (American sickness) if Biden doesn’t bow out graciously asap.
Kamala cannot win. Folks from the Mid West states will not vote for her because she is from California. And those are the states that we need to win.
Here in the Midwest . . . many voters ready to vote for Harris.
I want to be clear here: Kamala isn’t a bad politician. She is the example of what happens when you throw someone into the national spotlight and get a billion dollars of opposition research on them. Any “other” candidate will have to learn it faster than ANY other candidate in history. It’s a HUGE bet. Honestly it’s likely a loser bet but maybe JB is too
Yes, if Biden were to step down I agree she’s the only viable option. But I think the bet is too risky at this point, I don’t see the benefit and I think there’s a lot more harm than what people (especially the next level folks) are willing to admit.
Don’t disagree. It’s a shit sandwich for sure.
The problem is we don’t have all the info either. Is JB really bad or was this a surprise.
It’s just a matter of time at this point that’s just the reality. If he were able to recover from the debate he would’ve done a long press conference at the beginning of this week. The fact he is only doing 15 minutes with ABC says all you need to know that it can’t be salvaged. No good options at this point.
Yep! Tea leaves are easy to read. I sure wish the surrogates would stop debasing themselves and chirping about “He’s in it to win it.” Cringe. Another example of inept messaging
Could be right. If he has done a major press conference and did well I bet people should say he should have done 3 or he tripped over this question. The media smells blood. They aren’t going to let go (not saying this in any negative sense). Time is his only power here
It’s classic political damage control though when you have a crisis or slumping poll numbers you take over a press conference and stay for 45+ minutes taking questions. Clinton, Obama, Bush and even Trump did it.
This was a bigger crisis than any of those times and the fact it wasn’t automatically done within 3 days tells you that in this case his presidency ends by end of January.
If he had done that he could’ve had a narrative of Biden being combative and defiant refusing to drop out. He could’ve gotten angry at the reporters strategically like Bill Clinton did during his scandal.
Without something like that he’s dead man walking (not actually politically of course)
Sad part is I think he was a very good president in an impossible situation.
Maybe maybe not. It’s what I would do but I know shit about it. All I have to say is the media environment is drastically different than it was in the years you described. Comparing Trump to Biden is irrelevant. He would go on Fox and he would be non sensical and the entire right wing media ecosystem would tell you how great he was 24/7. That isn’t a useful comparison. Trump hasn’t done a hard hitting interview since 2020. It literally doesn’t exist. I guarantee if msm treated Biden like Trump there would be no concern. Not saying they should but his issue is with the base.
People talk about how awful Biden was…and he WAS. It wasn’t the worst debate though. That was 2020 when the candidate was screaming and yelling and then almost killed the competitor and then checked himself into a hospital a week later. I’m sorry but if msm doesn’t want Trump maybe act like it. You can tell us it’s journalistic ethics. Cool bro but then when you get what you sow enjoy it and don’t complain about dems.
Our problem is that the voters and the media holds Dems to some historical standard while republicans throw shit at the camera. Adjust if you want dems to win. If you don’t, fine but I don’t want to hear complaints when you are in gitmo
“People talk about how awful Biden was…and he WAS. It wasn’t the worst debate though. That was 2020 when the candidate was screaming and yelling and then almost killed the competitor and then checked himself into a hospital a week later.”
You make some excellent points, but like you said, this isn’t a normal election, and the media (rightfully so), won’t let up. And Biden isn’t helping by hiding in his bunker. And as to that worse performance by a candidate in a debate, in which you speak of? That candidate lost!
The good news that since this isn’t a normal election, and 72% of voters have been saying for a year that neither candidate should run; switching mid-stream may be an opportunity for democrats, since Trump isn’t going anywhere, anytime soon.
That said, we are talking about democrats, who never miss an opportunity, to miss an opportunity.
Good times…:)
Look there are no good choices. I’m not trying to minimize the situation at all. Apologies if you got that from my post. That was not my intent.
Look we have no power over what Biden does. Like literally zero. I have no idea if he drops out or doesn’t. I just don’t see the benefit of piling on but I understand people’s angst.
Ok then we move to option 2. He drops out. Now that is where I fundamentally disagree with a lot of people. If you want Biden to drop out (not necessarily you) then you need to explain and SELL me on why Kamala is better. Those are the choices. The other choices are idiotic. open convention shit is a pipe dream. It died on the veep cutting room floor. People need to actually take the time to actually (1) realize how delegates vote (they are delegates that are loyal to Biden/harris and they are ACTIVISTS. these are NOT primary voters. They don’t represent primary voters. They do not give 2 shits about the polls. They want candidates that will advance their INTERESTS). (2) no other candidate has a national campaign team, (3) they have no money, (4) they have to take over a 2b corporation that has been primed for Harris/Biden’s message and (5) what is their fucking message. I guarantee it isn’t Biden/harris’ message. Look if I could just wave my hand and choose the president and Vp that I like…awesome. However my choices aren’t your choices and aren’t likely to actually be chosen by the delegates. Not only that, it’s like we are just going to wave away the next 7 weeks of discussions about healthcare for all or free Gaza. Then you imagine what the “open convention” looks like where there are MASSIVE protests outside and complete dysfunction inside the convention…we have 8 weeks of dems attacking each other, having a useless debate about shit that will never happen, the press just dropping shit on each candidate, blah blah blah. Even if we PICK the right candidate (almost zero chance that happens… I LOVE Big gretch and Josh s but i think they lose their states to Trump. They beat Fucking awful candidates. We are talking about a generational politician in Trump here) that candidate has almost no chance of winning.
I want to win in nov. I’ll vote for Biden in a coffin. I’ll vote for Ted Cruz if he is the nominee. What I would like is people explaining why Kamala is better. That’s it. None of the other fantasy bs. People say she will be better at prosecuting the case against Trump. I agree!!!! I just don’t think it matters. There isn’t a single voter who doesn’t know who and what Donald is. The question is the following: is an old white incumbent president who needs to take naps and can fall asleep at any point is better than a vigorous, smart, thoughtful, intelligent black woman.
The sad part is I think America will more likely vote for the feeble old white male than a black woman. That’s what I struggle with. I want to think better of our voters but I just…can’t. They have and had such an easy choice. Vote for smart, thoughtful people in the Republican Party who ran against a criminal that didnt do a single thing to actually run to win the Republican nominee…and they chose the lazy, old, idiotic, criminal.
Very valid points, and no apologies necessary. It’s a discussion, not an argument…:)
That said, I agree, it will have to be Biden’s choice to leave. And if he can’t convince voters in the next two weeks that he is fine, then he needs to go. If there strategy is Biden isn’t Trump, and we have TOO MUCH TO LOSE, then we’ve already lost.
My problem with Biden is that he has become the issue: Not his agenda, or Trump’s authoritarian and vindictive nature. The 24 hr news cycle will continue to milk this story for all its worth, until Biden either drops out, or proves them wrong. So far, he’s still hiding in his bunker and is coming out for a 15 minute interview with ABC News. Not a winning strategy given what’s at stake.
If all is okay, don’t you think they would have him out in front of the press 24/7? Instead, the campaign is deflecting, blaming everyone except themselves. Again, not a recipe for success.
As for why Kamala is better than Biden? She’s younger and 72% of the population would rather have anyone other than Trump or Biden. And Kamala could add Shapiro to the ticket to get the mid west vote: MI, WI, and PA, necessary for success.
Not to mention, they can blame Biden for Gaza and Ukraine, and possibly win back the youth and Muslim vote. Although Kamala may be part of the administration, the youth and Muslim communities blame Biden; he’s the one they want to exact their pound of flesh from. And these groups certainly don’t like Trump.
Furthermore, I see this as an opportunity, since it would immediately redirect attention from Biden, to the new campaign and first potential female president. Granted, it’s a Hail Mary, but what other options exist? One more senior moment like Thursday (being very generous), and we will not recover. Not to mention, a new candidate can focus on Trump, abortion, Project 2025 and the American Taliban SC. It will be billions in free advertising, and for once, it won’t be Trump sucking all the oxygen out of the room.
That said, we are talking about democrats, and they never miss an opportunity, to miss an opportunity. So………
No problem. I’m not going to argue about anything about Biden. He will do what he wants to do. If he drops out, fine. If he doesn’t don’t know what worse to do other than polish a turd
Robert, Kamala doesn’t pick her Vp. You realize this right? That isn’t how this works. JFK fucking hated lbj. He had to give lbj the Vp slot because of the delegates. Pennsylvania represents like 16 delegates. They ain’t choosing him because he is from Pennsylvania. They will choose him because he does what they want on finance, ag, education, fp, whatever.
Sure you can blame Biden for his policy on Israel. Agree!!!! That assumes she would do something different that doesn’t hurt her with Jews and center right Israeli lovers. There is ONLY downside on Israel. Maybe she could be better but if she comes out and says “I’m not sending another bomb to Israel unless there is a new election?” She will have 24/7 news dropped on her that she is antisemite. Maybe that is more popular. I have no idea but it will be ugly. Then they will obviously ask on whatever her position is “why can’t Kamala convince a mentally retarded to do what she wants and we are suppose to believe that china and russia will take you seriously????” What’s the answer for why won’t Biden do what Harris thinks is best? This has nothing to do with right or wrong. She will look weak. And you can’t be a woman looking weak to a feeble old man when you run against Trump (btw this is true for ALL the dem nominees).
Robert, you know the voters. You think that if 72% say they don’t want the incumbent to run again that means they will support someone “new.” I don’t. I think that if Obama was running now they would poll almost the exact same way. People, everywhere in the world, hates incumbents. They could be old, young, left, right, far right, popular and unpopular and they lose. Seriously people hate incumbents. This was true of Trump too in 2020.
My question is simple: do you think an old white guy who can fall asleep anywhere is more likely to win white voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin versus a smart, diligent, black immigrant woman. That’s the question.
I agree with most of your points, I think we disagree on whether Biden still has a chance to win. I think the election is over with Biden at the helm. It’s been an issue for most Americans for over a year. That’s what I’m basing my premise on. And the same voters also believe Trump is unfit for office. People are craving change, and the two party system has given us absolutely nothing but two bad choices: an affable octogenarian, and a vindictive, narcissistic sociopath.
As for Kamala, her husband Doug Emhoff is Jewish, and is active, and respected in the Jewish community. She’s also excellent at fundraising big dollar donors.
Like I said, its a Hail Mary since we’re left we bad choices and worse choices. However, all is not lost. I think new blood will be a paradigm shift for the election, and the focus will be back to abortion, the SC, and Trumps authoritarian policies, and his backing by right-wing organizations, who want to turn this country into the American Taliban.
Bottom line: The press will be relentless until Biden leaves or proves them wrong (the MSM isn’t wrong). And let’s face it, his campaign aren’t doing themselves any favors by keeping Biden in his bunker.
If anything, its having the opposite effect.
Honestly I don’t know what I think is best. I don’t totally agree with your take on Biden being done, electorally but I understand it and any argument I make is more vibes than evidence.
You are right about the media smelling Biden blood in the water. However you know the moment it is someone else the msm will do everything possible to portray the dems and the new candidate in disarray. I wish we had some help in this election.
I don’t disagree with you. Right now, every option seems bad. Biden has my vote no if he decides to stay in the race. I’d vote for a head of lettuce before Trump. And I’m not staying home, although I do vote by mail….:)
My fear is Biden doesn’t instill confidence, nor does he have the ability to galvanize the electorate. We were losing before last Thursday, and now we’re in a deeper hole. Is it possible Biden can squeeze out a victory. Yes! Is it probable as of today? No!
He’s not being pushed out the door right now, but he is on notice. Let’s see how he does in the next week or so. Although, I just think more people will stay home than go to the polls for Biden, and if that’s the case (TBD), then the down ballot candidates will also be screwed.
If we lose the presidency, we need to either keep the senate, or regain the house. Sadly, if Trump wins and republicans retake the senate, then we’re stuck with a fascist court for the next forty years. Alito, Roberts and Thomas will definitely retire by the midterms, and our democracy is screwed.
I agree that he would receive super hostile questions and be held to a double standard. My main point is it's like he's down 8 points needing to go 90 yards to tie the game and he's running the ball. At this point if he were trying to salvage his campaign then he'd be playing different. No one wants to throw into double or triple coverage but when circumstances force you to you do it. This feels like one of those end plays where he just doesn't have the arm to get it to the end zone so even if the hail mary is caught it will be a few yards short.
Oh totally agree. I was more just screaming into the wind.
But that’s the problem in my mind. There is no reason he shouldn’t be winning by 30 and I don’t want to hear shit about his age. Sure it’s an issue, a REAL issue but trump isn’t hiding what he did or will do. Other than this mess up he has been fine so let’s look back a week. He was tied or down 2. Let’s say down 2. I’m sorry but trump has been taking a shit in public with the cameras on and the public doesn’t care. He shouldn’t even have been elected by republicans..but he was by a landslide without doing ANYTHING.
I know it’s a counterfactual but I guarantee no matter who we ran we would be right here. It would be it’s a woman or her laugh or her gait or he is gay or Jewish or black or too right or to pro Israel or too pro Palestine or too left. Voters want what Trump is telling them. He isn’t hiding it. That’s our issue.