"If I had to put odds on it, I’d say 54 percent for a conviction, 2 percent for an acquittal, and 44 percent for a hung jury that results in a mistrial."
These are a pretty good take on the odds I'd say. I also think a conviction is slightly more likely than a hung jury, but would not at all be surprised by a hung jury followed by Trump d…
"If I had to put odds on it, I’d say 54 percent for a conviction, 2 percent for an acquittal, and 44 percent for a hung jury that results in a mistrial."
These are a pretty good take on the odds I'd say. I also think a conviction is slightly more likely than a hung jury, but would not at all be surprised by a hung jury followed by Trump declaring "TOTAL EXHONERATION!" The system worked and that's what matters at the end of the day. Now it's in the hands of 12 NYCers. Even if there *is* a conviction I don't see Trump going to jail over it, I don't see this changing any of the support among Trump's base, and I don't even see it moving the needle much on the 6% of voters in the 6 swing states that are going to determine the outcome of this election. They'll be more focused on inflation, immigration, and Biden's lack of "piss and vinegar" as Tim's pod guest called it yesterday (unlike Commander, Biden himself is a dog that lacks a lot of bite).
Whether or not Trump wins this election will determine whether or not he faces justice in the cases with real prison term teeth--the TS documents and J6th cases. The Georgia case is basically frozen if Trump wins the election as well which would drag that case out into 2029 territory. The courts were never going to save us. This was always going to be about 6% of voters in 6 states determining the election outcome in 5 months' time.
If Trump wanted a friendly jury in NY he shouldn't have spent his entire business career stiffing contractors, threatening to sue family businesses, and being an general jerk to everyone he came in contact with
I think folks are underestimating the power "Convicted Felon" being factually tied to Trump will hurt him. No more alleged, or other hedging words - just plain and simple. If repeated enough, it will sink into the average voter and will give them pause. While he may not lose the vote from his base, they will not be so loud about it because it will draw negative attention to Trump and put them in a position to defend criming as the party of "law and order." They will do everything they can to not talk about this trial if he is convicted.
Or they'll just claim that the trial was biased from the get-go. There will always be excuses for these folks. If they want Biden gone because they think he's too old and feeble and they're Big Mad about cumulative inflation and/or immigration then they'll make up whatever excuses they want to justify voting for Trump, including that the trial and charges were political in nature.
I don't think the excuses will matter much. MAGA's droning on comes across more and more like white noise from a sniveling child. Folks are aware of it, but I don't think it is swaying anyone. Just the simple repetition of "Convicted Felon Donald Trump" for the next 5 months will be like a worm into people's brain.
Up to now, it has been hypothetical. Once it is factual, Trump and his surrogates can't easily waive it away and say it didn't happen. Then the news organizations can hammer the point home by prefacing so many of their questions with should a convicted felon be allowed to ______ ...?
If there is only "a conviction", I'd agree. But I think that is a low odds end result. And since TFG would never in a million years accept that he did anything wrong, let alone criminal, his attitude about that, which will be written all over him, could give the Judge a reason to weigh more heavily the realization that acknowledgement of wrong-doing is a sign of rehabilitation potential, whereas maintaining innocence in the face of a fair trial could be seen as strongly implying that something significantly more than a financial slap on the wrist of a self-proclaimed multi-billionaire is required for the true ends of justice.
We are a simple people. I think that T sporting stripes as a convicted felon makes for a pretty effective 30 second spot by Sarah and Co. It won’t move his base, but I can’t imagine it won’t have an effect on some.
At worst Trump is getting home confinement or public service outside of financial slaps on the wrist here. Home confinement *would* impact his ability to campaign which would either lead to either campaigning exceptions around that confinement or make Merchan more likely to go with public service. But he's not getting jail time in my mind. I would be *very* surprised if jailtime were assigned to even an extremely non-remorseful Trump. We have a two-tiered legal system here even when penalties are awarded and Trump has been in that upper tier *well* before he even started thinking about running for president. Rich people have a different set of rules and penalties that they live under.
I'm with you here. I'm hoping for house confinement. I think public service alone would undercut the "seriousness" of the case and that this affected a national election (not small potatoes). Not only that, but I can see his lawyers arguing that he already served, by giving up some paychecks as President. There needs to be something that is meaningful in the immediate, so hopefully house confinement is where we land.
No idea - hopefully someone in the comments knows. Even if the answer was no, I would not be at all surprised if Trump was the first. He has already broken enough first as-is, what is another one right?
"If I had to put odds on it, I’d say 54 percent for a conviction, 2 percent for an acquittal, and 44 percent for a hung jury that results in a mistrial."
These are a pretty good take on the odds I'd say. I also think a conviction is slightly more likely than a hung jury, but would not at all be surprised by a hung jury followed by Trump declaring "TOTAL EXHONERATION!" The system worked and that's what matters at the end of the day. Now it's in the hands of 12 NYCers. Even if there *is* a conviction I don't see Trump going to jail over it, I don't see this changing any of the support among Trump's base, and I don't even see it moving the needle much on the 6% of voters in the 6 swing states that are going to determine the outcome of this election. They'll be more focused on inflation, immigration, and Biden's lack of "piss and vinegar" as Tim's pod guest called it yesterday (unlike Commander, Biden himself is a dog that lacks a lot of bite).
Whether or not Trump wins this election will determine whether or not he faces justice in the cases with real prison term teeth--the TS documents and J6th cases. The Georgia case is basically frozen if Trump wins the election as well which would drag that case out into 2029 territory. The courts were never going to save us. This was always going to be about 6% of voters in 6 states determining the election outcome in 5 months' time.
Every time I hear "hung jury" I think of a Monty Python sketch.
If Trump wanted a friendly jury in NY he shouldn't have spent his entire business career stiffing contractors, threatening to sue family businesses, and being an general jerk to everyone he came in contact with
No arguments from me there. He could also not have bragged about his building being the tallest in lower Manhattan after 9/11. What a POS.
Dear God, why isn't that hung around his neck like an albatross? I know I shouldn't be surprised, but just what a piece of shit.
I think folks are underestimating the power "Convicted Felon" being factually tied to Trump will hurt him. No more alleged, or other hedging words - just plain and simple. If repeated enough, it will sink into the average voter and will give them pause. While he may not lose the vote from his base, they will not be so loud about it because it will draw negative attention to Trump and put them in a position to defend criming as the party of "law and order." They will do everything they can to not talk about this trial if he is convicted.
Or they'll just claim that the trial was biased from the get-go. There will always be excuses for these folks. If they want Biden gone because they think he's too old and feeble and they're Big Mad about cumulative inflation and/or immigration then they'll make up whatever excuses they want to justify voting for Trump, including that the trial and charges were political in nature.
I don't think the excuses will matter much. MAGA's droning on comes across more and more like white noise from a sniveling child. Folks are aware of it, but I don't think it is swaying anyone. Just the simple repetition of "Convicted Felon Donald Trump" for the next 5 months will be like a worm into people's brain.
Up to now, it has been hypothetical. Once it is factual, Trump and his surrogates can't easily waive it away and say it didn't happen. Then the news organizations can hammer the point home by prefacing so many of their questions with should a convicted felon be allowed to ______ ...?
Could not agree more. Even if he’s convicted on one measly charge, he’d be a convicted felon.
"Once it is factual"---IF it becomes factual, but yes, if it comes to pass the media can hammer away at it if they choose to.
If there is only "a conviction", I'd agree. But I think that is a low odds end result. And since TFG would never in a million years accept that he did anything wrong, let alone criminal, his attitude about that, which will be written all over him, could give the Judge a reason to weigh more heavily the realization that acknowledgement of wrong-doing is a sign of rehabilitation potential, whereas maintaining innocence in the face of a fair trial could be seen as strongly implying that something significantly more than a financial slap on the wrist of a self-proclaimed multi-billionaire is required for the true ends of justice.
We are a simple people. I think that T sporting stripes as a convicted felon makes for a pretty effective 30 second spot by Sarah and Co. It won’t move his base, but I can’t imagine it won’t have an effect on some.
Acknowledgement of wrong doing - he could NEVER do that. And I'm sure the judge will take that into consideration in sentencing. Good point.
At worst Trump is getting home confinement or public service outside of financial slaps on the wrist here. Home confinement *would* impact his ability to campaign which would either lead to either campaigning exceptions around that confinement or make Merchan more likely to go with public service. But he's not getting jail time in my mind. I would be *very* surprised if jailtime were assigned to even an extremely non-remorseful Trump. We have a two-tiered legal system here even when penalties are awarded and Trump has been in that upper tier *well* before he even started thinking about running for president. Rich people have a different set of rules and penalties that they live under.
I'm with you here. I'm hoping for house confinement. I think public service alone would undercut the "seriousness" of the case and that this affected a national election (not small potatoes). Not only that, but I can see his lawyers arguing that he already served, by giving up some paychecks as President. There needs to be something that is meaningful in the immediate, so hopefully house confinement is where we land.
Public service for a felony? Has that ever happened?
Trump, in an orange jumpsuit, picking up trash along a freeway for three years.
Oh, please, somebody who does AI. Put this into it!
I'll take 9 months, which puts us after January 2025 😏
Good point. It *is* a felony if convicted and that would be kind of unheard of. That said, two-tier justice system etc., etc.
No idea - hopefully someone in the comments knows. Even if the answer was no, I would not be at all surprised if Trump was the first. He has already broken enough first as-is, what is another one right?
Yup.