Mike Johnson Beat the Odds in a Losing Game
He’ll stay on as speaker—at a cost.
Mike Johnson initially appeared to have failed in the first round of voting to become speaker of the House Friday afternoon—a scene that brought back the infighting, humiliation, and weakness that plagued his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy. But shortly after the vote concluded (but notably remained unofficial), he managed to hold on by converting two of his detractors.
In the end, that was enough. The House elected Johnson speaker by a vote of 218-215-1. It wasn’t without a great deal of difficulty, though. Johnson had held the vote open for a while—a procedural move to avoid the ignominy and time suck of a second ballot or adjournment—in order to convert two of the three holdouts. The holdout who didn’t budge was Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who made clear in advance of today’s events that he was never going to back Johnson.
In an apparent troll move, Massie cast his vote for Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), the number three Republican leader who Trump deliberately prevented from taking the job after McCarthy was ousted. The outcome of that drama, memorably, was conservatives rallying around Johnson as a compromise candidate.
In addition to Massie, Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Keith Self (R-Tex.) delivered no votes for Johnson by backing Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) respectively. In addition, several other Republicans held off on voting till the very end, adding a bit of drama to the proceedings before ultimately casting their ballots for Johnson. All told, exactly nine Republicans decided to toy with Johnson during the first ballot. That’s the new magic number to trigger a motion to vacate and try to boot Johnson in this just-launched Congress, for what it’s worth.
How it went down
Prior to the vote, Democrats cheered as the clerk read the notice that former Rep. Matt Gaetz would not be joining them.
But then voting started, during which most of the un-sworn-in lawmakers backed whom they were told to support. Each GOP vote against Johnson drew gasps and noises of concern throughout the chamber. When Self voted for Donalds, it shocked the chamber. Combined with the team of initial non-voters, it suggested that Johnson was in for a rough day—or perhaps more. The grins across the Republican leadership turned into stone-faced squinting at their notepads and iPhones.
The look on Johnson’s face was much different than McCarthy’s two years ago. I recall McCarthy’s demeanor quite vividly. He had a blank look while leaning back in his chair and gripped the armrests like one does to an airplane seat when experiencing mild turbulence. Johnson, however, was deep in conversation with several members, punctuated by the occasional deep breath or head shake.
It’s one ballot, Michael. What could it cost?
Prior to the first vote, Johnson claimed to have not been negotiating with dissenting Republicans the way McCarthy did two years ago—that is, giving away the store in exchange for being allowed to be speaker for a mortifying 10 months.1
“I don't make deals with anyone,” Johnson told reporters while entering the Capitol this morning. “There’s no quid pro quo here. I don’t do anything in exchange for a vote other than commit to make this institution work as effectively and efficiently as possible.”
The deals McCarthy made were part of his undoing, particularly the decision to allow just one member to invoke the motion to vacate the speakership. But Johnson’s claim he wasn’t doing the same type of horsetrading wasn’t the full picture. Moments before the vote, Johnson successfully captured Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), an unpredictable holdout. Just as the news broke that Spartz would back him, Johnson released a statement that mimicked some of Spartz’s comments in recent weeks.
Spartz confirmed her support for the statement in a followup post and again with her vote on the floor. In other words, it was coordinated.
The moment the first round of voting ended, with Johnson two votes short, he zipped out of his chair and headed to the cloakroom—the private area free from cameras and the press.2 He then came back out.
Massie held court in the back of the chamber’s center aisle, the meeting place of the House Freedom Caucus and their allies, which other members have often jokingly called “sinner’s row.” He wore his signature “debt badge,” a lapel pin that he created that constantly displays the growing national debt. (Massie also distributed these to every member of the Republican conference this morning.)
Johnson attempted to talk to both Norman and Self on the floor, but suddenly they all sped out of the chamber and into a private room. As they moved through the aisle, Johnson, who rarely displays much emotion, looked livid.
Behind closed doors, Johnson convinced Norman and Self to change their votes, which they did shortly thereafter. It secured Johnson another go at the speakership.
We’re likely to learn the details of Johnson’s concessions—if he made any—in the coming days. He said afterwards that he made none. Either way, he accomplished something important: He organized his slim majority and avoided the embarrassment of a failed speaker ballot, perhaps lifting the McCarthy Curse.3
What Johnson failed at was the ability to navigate this crisis without help from President-elect Donald Trump.
To the casual viewer of politics, it appeared that Trump wasn’t putting in the work to get Johnson over the finish line. While he posted on Truth Social this morning that he wished Johnson “good luck,” that didn’t exactly carry the same urgency as his threats right before Christmas, when he warned Republicans who didn’t vote for his approved continuing resolution/debt ceiling extension that they would face primary challengers in 2026. In fact, he reportedly declined to issue primary threats at all.
But make no mistake, key Trump-world figures were lurking around the speaker drama. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley watched from the visitors balcony while Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) fielded phone calls from Susie Wiles, Trump’s incoming White House chief of staff. Hogan Gidley, the former Trump administration official and campaign aide who’s been seen with many of the high-profile cabinet nominees, worked the floor the entire afternoon—including during the episode in which Norman and Johnson were summoned to the principal’s office. Beyond that, Trump also reportedly weighed in to pressure the non-Massie holdouts in that meeting.
Next week, Congress will certify the votes of the Electoral College, likely without a hiccup. While that is certainly different from the last time, the House’s behavior is about the same as it’s been: beset by infighting, turncoats, squishes, and enough knives for every back. At least it’s off to a slightly better start this go around.
Technically it was nine months and 26 days. It would have been ten months if it hadn’t taken McCarthy so long to be elected in the first place and he had assumed the office on the day the 188th Congress organized.
Because Johnson kept the vote open, there was technically only one ballot, but there were clearly two rounds—the first Johnson lost, and the second he won.
Now that we know that Chip Roy is all talk, can the mainstream media please stop paying attention to him?
Let's get real. There is no way that the two "hold-outs" did not gain something of value to each of them individually from their session with Mealy-mouthed Mike in the "wood-shed". It will become clear in the near future what that was, either by leaks or by on the floor actions. And I appreciate your observation, Joe, of the magic number, nine.