Mike Johnson Finds a Way, Despite the Odds
Plus: The shortest and silliest impeachment trial in history.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is on the verge of doing something hardly anyone expected: passing a comprehensive foreign aid package that adequately funds the Ukrainians in their fight against the Russians.
For some background on the unique process by which Johnson is going about this, see Tuesday’s edition of Press Pass. Today, I want to catch you up on the events that have unfolded since Johnson unveiled the four-bills-one-rule plan. Given the way the 118th Congress has functioned so far—it has been among the least effective Congresses in modern history—we may be on the verge of seeing a clever maneuver to circumvent the members who have been holding the chamber hostage.
Since Johnson laid his cards on the table on Monday, the individual bill texts have been released. The toplines are as follows:
Ukraine: $60.84 billion
Israel: $26.38 billion
Indo-Pacific: $8.12 billion
Johnson created a plan that insulates him from potential scheming and alterations by the Senate, while structuring a package that essentially includes what has already passed the upper chamber. This helps ensure the bipartisan support he needs. At the same time, Johnson has made himself the primary target of the Freedom Caucus by requiring Democrats to come to his aid on the Rules Committee.1 After the committee vote, Johnson won’t be done relying on Democrats: He’ll need their votes to pass the rule to bring the bills to the House floor, and maybe again to fend off an attempt by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and her allies to oust him.
Johnson’s gambit depends on his getting support from Democrats on the Rules Committee. But here’s the thing: That just doesn’t happen. Like, ever. The Twitter account Ringwiss, operated by a congressional procedure whiz (who as it turns out, is actually a 20-year-old college student in England), notes that “It would appear that never in recorded history2 have minority members of the Rules Committee voted in favour of reporting a rule to make up for majority votes against it.”
Historically, members of the Rules Committee serve at the behest of the whole conference or caucus and get those positions by being reliable partisan footsoldiers. That’s not the case right now, though: Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) have all signaled they’re against Johnson’s plan and will vote against the rule in committee, which without offsetting Democratic votes would tank a vote on something the majority of the entire chamber clearly wants. How did bomb-throwers like Roy, Norman, and Massie end up on Rules in the first place, you ask? Their appointment was one of the concessions former Speaker Kevin McCarthy made at the beginning of the Congress to get the gavel.
I want to stress that this is not a done deal by any means. Many things can happen in the next 48 hours that could blow it all up.