November Will Not Be Like May
Skating to where the puck will be.
1. Cha-Cha-Cha-Changes
The political environment of April was defined by two ongoing events:
The campus protests against Biden and Israel.
The beginning of Trump’s election fraud criminal trial.
Everything that happened in the relative positioning of the presidential race was tied to these two phenomena. Both of them will be resolved long before November.
So don’t look at where we are now. Instead, look at the likely resolutions for these phenomena and try to understand how those developments will impact the race in six months.
And what you see is a *very* different picture.