Donald Trump announced his 2024 campaign this week. Republican elites would love to move on from him, but will Republican voters? David Drucker, the author of In Trump's Shadow: The Battle for 2024 and the Future of the GOP, joins Sarah to listen to Trump voters from the past year and discuss whether they provide clues for how the 2024 Republican primary may unfold.
The Focus Group
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Sarah Longwell has conducted hundreds of hours of focus groups all across the country. She and a series of guests take you behind the glass to hear real focus group participants. Unfiltered, uncompromising, unexpected—The Focus Group is a look into what the average voter thinks about politics, policy, and current events.
An ad-free edition is exclusively available for Bulwark+ members.
Sarah Longwell has conducted hundreds of hours of focus groups all across the country. She and a series of guests take you behind the glass to hear real focus group participants. Unfiltered, uncompromising, unexpected—The Focus Group is a look into what the average voter thinks about politics, policy, and current events.
An ad-free edition is exclusively available for Bulwark+ members.Listen on
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To participate in the focus group, do you have to be (indicating low bar) _____ dumb?
It wasn't mentioned on the podcast, but both Noem and DeSantis are vocal anti-lgbt bigots.
I think if anything, that might be the defining issue of the Republican party these days. It seems that's what the base really gravitates towards. Which might be enough to permanently doom them with younger voters.
This guy is way too reminiscent of Ben Shapiro: weaselly and conveniently ignoring the fact that a critical mass of R voters want cruelty and antics that bring the 'baggage'. If they want DeSantis it's because his cart is still relatively empty and can be loaded with lots more baggage
It's looking really good for Dems in 2024. Former Trump voters want "fighters" --Trumpiness without Trump. In other words, more radical culture warriors without Trump-level skills. That won't fly with most voters.
My idea of hell: DeSantis and Noem in the White House.
Never going to happen.
It is very unlikely. Still, we wouldn't have expected Trump to be President so the possibility isn't zero.
The scariest thing is that these voters still think Trump did a good job and anything he's done that sounds bad is because of Dems and/or media deliberately making him look bad. So frustrating!
The thing some of these guys don't get Trump is a Republican when it suits him and but is Trump always. Watch your six.
And all these ambitious people, DeSantis, Noem, Haley, Cruz, Hawley are just echo chambers for Trumpism, or should I say, Orbanism.
“they just plan a spin cycle of grievances to appease the MAGA fox viewers.” That’s pretty much what Repubs will do. So much for the “wisdom” of the Drucker person.
To be considered "a family man," we need more than "is married with children." I would also argue that running for a high profile office is not generally good for your family. Getting the high profile office is even worse. (And yes, I feel this way about Obama too.)
All this talk about Trump being less of an exciting candidate is wrong. He was not on the ballot and so his crazies did not come out and vote. Did Trump even ask them to?
Kari Lake may not be conceding, but I doubt it goes far. Spending endless on lawyers & lawsuits with no evidence to support the claims is not a club people want to hurry and sign up for.
Finally, one reason Democrats might have overperformed this election is the clear message from Kevin McCarthy and Kari Lake that the Republicans just don't plan to do their jobs at all. They made no mention of fixing anything, they just plan a spin cycle of grievances to appease the MAGA fox viewers.
What is a “strong leader”? Define it.
Drucker: “Strong Leader”: gee, sounds so fascist...
If DeSantis would run and win for President, we can look to Orban to see where we would go as a Country- guess it’s OK if you’re white...
Rick Scott is a piece of crap and so is Marco Rubio. Florida will hopefully go blub blub as climate degradation advances.
The Drucker person is all about performance- how fascist of him....
Very interesting: Trumpism without Trump: the talking heads are only interested in winning...this is all about winning and not about getting a candidate who actually cares about the people and their issues. What those comments that were played say about Republicans is that they don’t even care about having a candidate who would actually find out what their issues and problems are, it’s all about winning- Fascist politics in play if I ever saw I it. Put aside Fox and why not read some Jason Stanley: How Fascism Works, and then you will see what I mean.
As for DeSantis: just read a little Carl Hiaasen about the corruption in Florida. It’s an armpit State and always has been.
I didn’t see any evidence of people talking policy- it was all about performance...what a waste...
I love you all, especially all of you. Love, and admire, but envy not so much.
Another great pod to workout to!
If I could ask for fewer guests like Drucker (echoing Kenneth's comment); maybe more "young Bulwarkers?" Gunner killed it in the pre-election pod IMO. If we keep using the same rotten structures we'll keep getting the same results. Talking about stopping platforming Trump, stop platforming the shills, the "empty chested men" who carry his water at the Examiner or on the airwaves. Stop letting them be "thoughtful" to the Bulwark and the legacy intellectuals while pumping poison into the base.
Excellent podcast, very good insights.
Too depressing. It's so jarring to hear people speak about Biden through the lens of Fox and conservative news. They are incapable of actual thought. Biden doesn't have cognitive decline. Moreover, they eat up authoritarian politics. It's disgusting. I'm so relieved that they more or less lost in this election and that Gen Z is overtaking them in votes.
I've never been able to listen through a whole episode.
Sarah, I love ya, but I get dispepsic. I didn't decide on it, but I have subconsciously called The Focus Group "The Idiot Show" from the start.
I thought we kept all the idiots down here in in the south. As a Texas native, I kinda know whereof it I speak.
Wish-casting back to imaginary 50s...
If they prevail, I'll be in a boxcar and CPS will come for your homo-endangered kids.
Everybody donate to RAPAC.
I've never been able to listen through a whole episode.
Sarah, I love ya, but I get dispepsic. I didn't decide on it, but I have subconsciously called The Focus Group "The Idiot Show" from the start.
I thought we kept all the idiots down here in in the south. As a Texas native, I kinda know whereof it I speak.
Wish-casting back to imaginary 50s...
If they prevail, I'll be in a boxcar and CPS will come for your homo-endangered kids.
Everybody donate to RAPAC.
Sarah's focus groups always thoroughly depress me. I didn't know it's ALL the fault of the media, Democrats and everyone ELSE that trump lost 🙄
Sarah, I love you! However, please stop having guys like Drucker (and Kraushaar) on the show.
They aren't giving good faith, neutral analysis. They are pushing an agenda (and working through some personal issues in public) that is both a lie and dangerous. They want to claim that anyone who isn't Trump is normal. Drucker's continued invocation of suburban and swing voters who want someone who isn't outside the norm. DeSanctimonious is not normal. Punishing Disney for boys kissing is not normal. Going to NatCon conferences and espousing christian nationalist rhetoric is not normal. Additionally, he brought up that swing/suburban voters didn't change their views on fiscal and foreign policies when they voted for Biden. Ok, but what is Ron's stance on Ukraine? What about defunding Obamacare? Does he want to sunset So. Sec?
These guys are hacks pretending to be serious people. Obviously all humans who cover politics have their own biases and desires for candidates, but people like Weigel and Walters try their absolute best to detach themselves and not let the narrative they want take over their analysis.
💯, DeSantis is another minoritarian authoritarian and there's a subset of "independent thinkers" carrying his water.
Minoritarian authoritarian is simply brilliant.
This idea that people like Drucker whose explanation for DeSantis is “he fights!TM” for why the base likes him - but who do so without explaining that the “fight!” isn’t ever on serious matters of policy, but simply bigoted resentments towards other Americans they don’t know and don’t like - is a signal he is either a moron or an extremist.
I'm leaning towards moron myself. How can you spend 80% of a podcast and hand-wave away Kemp/Sununu (Kemp faced an opponent being bolstered by A-List celebs and the best GOTV Commissariat in the nation) w/ "primary voters don't consider wins and losses?" He came on to fluff DeSantis.
I'd at least like an explicit mea culpa from these guys before they get readmitted to polite society. Doesn't have to be self flagellation but it does need to be sincere.
While I appreciated this conversation (because I want to know what we're all dealing with), I found myself getting really agitated. Perhaps I misunderstand, but it seems pundits are suggesting Ron DeSantis is an improvement over Trump? I think he's a scarier version of Trump. He's a bully with authoritarian tendencies, and he's smart enough to be successful. Additionally, any of the potential candidates for 2024 that were mentioned did not stand up to Trump. Sycophants "need not apply" in my opinion. It seemed to me that David Drucker thinks DeSantis is just fine?
RDS is a horrible alternative and he will try to have an imperial presidency, which is horrible. On the other hand, I don't think he has Trump's superpower to foment political violence by ransacking the Capitol and trying to kill Pence and Pelosi. I do believe there is a high level of wish-casting by the pundits and mainstream media. If Trump has 30% of the party's base, I just cannot see RDS can snag nearly as much support.
Agree - DeSantis is a sanctimonious authoritarian prick who could probably work the levers of power more artfully than Trump ever could. But I don't believe he could command the masses in anywhere even close to the Don.
Perhaps this is the deal: no, DeSantis is not normal. Nearer normal. He would be despicable over policies, not petty grievances and sidling into autocracy. He doesn’t have the charismatic devotion, or I don’t think even the desire, to accomplish that. Gentle the Republicans away from the crazy. Baby steps.
No, they didn't say that at all. They said he has the traits and policies of trump, just not the baggage (again with the pivot to "we want to win elections", not a repudiation of trumpism and the GOP's embrace of it, itself). It isn't just the voters, it's many of the never-trumpers, even at the Bulwark, who are so thrilled that the party might dump trump, they will eventually become supporters of the non-trump GOP candidate....
I am going to hate to see that day. If it ever comes I will be rethinking my sub, but will probably keep it because I need JVL's writing injected directly into my veins.