According to Prof. Allan Licht she must run as incumbent. Otherwise the Dems would loose two predictors from the winning list, namely incumbent and no competition. A chaotic open Convention would kill Democrats chances. And according to Licht, incumbent Biden would win even if we have to carry him there, simply because all the predictors line up. So the whole age panic is only damaging and I wish you guys would help us stay sane and just look on the stats.
As a Jewish American I have to say that JVL and Sarah Longwell are being a bit optimistic that Josh Shapiro can be on any national ticket right now. There is a an antisemitic vein running through America right now which would preclude a Jewish American running for President or Vice-President. I have already heard people being against Kamala Harris because her husband is Jewish. This is a very sad thing for me to admit but we need to be very realistic in this treacherous moment.
To me, the solution to the problem with someone from the military being unwilling to follow an illegal order would be to simply hire an ex-military individual as an aide. The immunity decision shields communications with that person from use in any criminal trial. If that even matters. The assassination takes place. Whether the person is caught or not, give them immunity. Done and dusted.
The political campaigns in the U.S. are far too long and expensive. In the House with two year terms members are raising money and campaigning the day after they are elected. Presidential campaigns are also too long, expensive and exhausting. Trump has actually been running since 2021.
In the U.K. campaigns are six weeks long and there are limits on spending. I realize it is a Parliamentary system but seems much better than ours as far as elections.
One of the fascinating parts of a Parliamentary system is that the prime minister is actually part of parliament. Which means that, on a regular basis, they appear in chambers with the rest of the members. When that happens, the opposition asks pointed questions about their decisions and policies. I'm not suggesting that the answers are any less political than you'd see in an interview. However, the opposition is more than willing to follow-up, because they're not worried about being denied future access if the prime minister takes umbrage.
Momentum is with Trump, current news has buttressed his position and while the debate didn’t build him up it resulted in sinking Biden.
JVL your article on Biden turning over the presidency to VP Harris is enticing. Having President Biden raising America’s first female president would be a crowning event of an amazing life of public service. This would move the news and energy to a forward looking campaign. Add someone who can defeat Trump in the news coverage, on the debate floor and would be the candidate who can offer new without the anchor of a prior term. Add a VP for the short term and one for the long term. This sounds like a winnable strategy.
Would Mitt Romney serve America for six months as VP in a consolidated government? Someone to get through the house and remind America what governing for the people means. There are some honorable members of the Republican Party who are leaving because of Trumpism which might make exceptional transitional teams.
debates usually do not have much effect in the end. Presidential record has. According to Allan Licht who has predicted the last 9 elections right, the incumbent would win even if we have to carry him there. Simply because the predictors are all stacked up in his favor. Democrats must stop self destruct if they want to win. Please.
My concern is that on the retail politics level Kamala may be roughly Ron Desantis II and Trump doesn't need to have any retail politics as he has a cult. Add to that the prejudice against having a woman president and throw in racism -- bad combo. But Biden had a health event NOT a bad debate so that is no longer an option. (Biden supporter, contributor here). He should save his excellent legacy by resigning. Today would be good.
If Biden resigns soon and Harris becomes President, does her VP also have to be her running mate? Could she pick a VP who is maybe older, and close to retirement, and thus would consent to giving up their day job, and then have Shapiro or whoever as her running mate?
I agreed with everything you wrote here, JVL, until you got to: “ Meanwhile, most of the Democratic party skipped damage control and is now, however painfully, engaged in a serious discussion about what is best for the country.” Until the Democratic Party has an open & honest discussion and lay out a plausible plan before the public of how they will vet a replacement from the available field, they are not skipping damage control (not successfully, anyway). I think they’re in a hole and unfortunately, they keep on digging.
Love all the Bulwark daily, but never comment on social media. But important times.
I lean in the Biden resign and let Harris being president overcome that reticence of woman as president.
Then, while listening to Ezra Klein’s pod on VP Harris today—which I recommend—it suddenly occurred to me an obviously compelling ticket —Kamala Harris and Tim Ryan.
I think this idea has surely already occurred to Tim Ryan, if his public comments are any indication.
I think at last I understand your purpose. it is to completely decimate the Democrats. End of story.
JVL: submitted for your review. I thought of you when I read it.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1809311013839466846.html?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR1Zwdm-7-PD1CSYBKhJMbJowh5WLM1-SflT9RzJ13EUlwpWdiDcbuIArLY_aem_Y7cwdNxADnjQ0powVNNzXw
According to Prof. Allan Licht she must run as incumbent. Otherwise the Dems would loose two predictors from the winning list, namely incumbent and no competition. A chaotic open Convention would kill Democrats chances. And according to Licht, incumbent Biden would win even if we have to carry him there, simply because all the predictors line up. So the whole age panic is only damaging and I wish you guys would help us stay sane and just look on the stats.
I agree- Biden should resign as soon as is feasible.
As a Jewish American I have to say that JVL and Sarah Longwell are being a bit optimistic that Josh Shapiro can be on any national ticket right now. There is a an antisemitic vein running through America right now which would preclude a Jewish American running for President or Vice-President. I have already heard people being against Kamala Harris because her husband is Jewish. This is a very sad thing for me to admit but we need to be very realistic in this treacherous moment.
The Bulwark is one of the only places I can find actual good faith argument. Thank you, JVL.
I listened to Prof Allan Lichtman and Biden either has to stay in or give it to Harris in order to win. Throwing it open all but guarantees we lose.
To me, the solution to the problem with someone from the military being unwilling to follow an illegal order would be to simply hire an ex-military individual as an aide. The immunity decision shields communications with that person from use in any criminal trial. If that even matters. The assassination takes place. Whether the person is caught or not, give them immunity. Done and dusted.
The political campaigns in the U.S. are far too long and expensive. In the House with two year terms members are raising money and campaigning the day after they are elected. Presidential campaigns are also too long, expensive and exhausting. Trump has actually been running since 2021.
In the U.K. campaigns are six weeks long and there are limits on spending. I realize it is a Parliamentary system but seems much better than ours as far as elections.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/04/how-british-election-races-are-very-different-from-american-ones.html
One of the fascinating parts of a Parliamentary system is that the prime minister is actually part of parliament. Which means that, on a regular basis, they appear in chambers with the rest of the members. When that happens, the opposition asks pointed questions about their decisions and policies. I'm not suggesting that the answers are any less political than you'd see in an interview. However, the opposition is more than willing to follow-up, because they're not worried about being denied future access if the prime minister takes umbrage.
Good points. But their system is superior as far as campaign length and spending.
Momentum is with Trump, current news has buttressed his position and while the debate didn’t build him up it resulted in sinking Biden.
JVL your article on Biden turning over the presidency to VP Harris is enticing. Having President Biden raising America’s first female president would be a crowning event of an amazing life of public service. This would move the news and energy to a forward looking campaign. Add someone who can defeat Trump in the news coverage, on the debate floor and would be the candidate who can offer new without the anchor of a prior term. Add a VP for the short term and one for the long term. This sounds like a winnable strategy.
Would Mitt Romney serve America for six months as VP in a consolidated government? Someone to get through the house and remind America what governing for the people means. There are some honorable members of the Republican Party who are leaving because of Trumpism which might make exceptional transitional teams.
Exciting times.
debates usually do not have much effect in the end. Presidential record has. According to Allan Licht who has predicted the last 9 elections right, the incumbent would win even if we have to carry him there. Simply because the predictors are all stacked up in his favor. Democrats must stop self destruct if they want to win. Please.
My concern is that on the retail politics level Kamala may be roughly Ron Desantis II and Trump doesn't need to have any retail politics as he has a cult. Add to that the prejudice against having a woman president and throw in racism -- bad combo. But Biden had a health event NOT a bad debate so that is no longer an option. (Biden supporter, contributor here). He should save his excellent legacy by resigning. Today would be good.
If Biden resigns soon and Harris becomes President, does her VP also have to be her running mate? Could she pick a VP who is maybe older, and close to retirement, and thus would consent to giving up their day job, and then have Shapiro or whoever as her running mate?
I agreed with everything you wrote here, JVL, until you got to: “ Meanwhile, most of the Democratic party skipped damage control and is now, however painfully, engaged in a serious discussion about what is best for the country.” Until the Democratic Party has an open & honest discussion and lay out a plausible plan before the public of how they will vet a replacement from the available field, they are not skipping damage control (not successfully, anyway). I think they’re in a hole and unfortunately, they keep on digging.
Love all the Bulwark daily, but never comment on social media. But important times.
I lean in the Biden resign and let Harris being president overcome that reticence of woman as president.
Then, while listening to Ezra Klein’s pod on VP Harris today—which I recommend—it suddenly occurred to me an obviously compelling ticket —Kamala Harris and Tim Ryan.
I think this idea has surely already occurred to Tim Ryan, if his public comments are any indication.
And it was the late, great John McCain who said: "It's always darkest just before it goes totally black."
JVL, can you cover this bit of Republican pysops in the Times
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/07/why-i-dont-vote-and-by-i-mean-you-and-by-dont-i-mean-shouldnt